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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby GHung » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:33:26

Cog wrote:Evening update About 15 minutes long. Irma is projected to go very close to the northern edge of Cuba and make landfall close to Miami as a Cat 4. Still a possible shift to east, but consensus is now building between the models of a possible Miami Florida landfall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gVFeGLROmA


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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby MD » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:34:16

Cid_Yama wrote:Thursday, 12z European model operational run; forecast for Sunday morning at 8am ET.

i don't like that model very much so I will deny it, for now
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:39:03

The latest run of the European model (12z, Thursday, published around 2:30pm ET) brings a powerful hurricane into the Florida Keys near Marathon and pulls the center into the Florida peninsula over the Everglades and north through the state.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:40:51

Cid - Intetesting. Shift the eye west just about 40 miles so the left half of Irma continues sucking up water from the GOM and the east half hits the onshore with heavy rains. And you have a potential mirror image to Harvey.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:55:44

Cid - "...current track has Hurricane winds covering the whole peninsula from the Gulf to the Atlantic, people aren't getting this." Yep, last I heard from the Weather Channel they showed an 80 miles radius of 70+ mph winds. Thus a 160 mile spread of hurricane force winds. So if the eye moves 80 miles inland down the center line of the state AND that 80 miles radius of hurricane level winds holds: at that moment 20,000 sq miles will be subjected 70+ mph winds.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby MD » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 22:05:06

ROCKMAN wrote:Cid - "...current track has Hurricane winds covering the whole peninsula from the Gulf to the Atlantic, people aren't getting this." Yep, last I heard from the Weather Channel they showed an 80 miles radius of 70+ mph winds. Thus a 160 mile spread of hurricane force winds. So if the eye moves 80 miles inland down the center line of the state AND that 80 miles radius of hurricane level winds holds: at that moment 20,000 sq miles will be subjected 70+ mph winds.

well. Hate to say it but at this point, unless it takes a sudden turn, right up the middle of the state may be the best outcome. The everglades will take a beating from the "funnel", but it will weaken quickly as it moves north through the swamps. I don't think the alligators will care much. Lake Okeechobee could overflow for the first time since... 1938 storm? The little towns in the middle will take a beating, but both coasts/population centers will be spared the worst of it.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 22:37:36

MD wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:Cid - "...current track has Hurricane winds covering the whole peninsula from the Gulf to the Atlantic, people aren't getting this." Yep, last I heard from the Weather Channel they showed an 80 miles radius of 70+ mph winds. Thus a 160 mile spread of hurricane force winds. So if the eye moves 80 miles inland down the center line of the state AND that 80 miles radius of hurricane level winds holds: at that moment 20,000 sq miles will be subjected 70+ mph winds.

well. Hate to say it but at this point, unless it takes a sudden turn, right up the middle of the state may be the best outcome. The everglades will take a beating from the "funnel", but it will weaken quickly as it moves north through the swamps. I don't think the alligators will care much. Lake Okeechobee could overflow for the first time since... 1938 storm? The little towns in the middle will take a beating, but both coasts/population centers will be spared the worst of it.


This would be the worst case scenario. The storm surge would max out in Miami and the response teams coming from the north would have to weather and wait out the storm until it passes.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 23:35:36

ROCKMAN wrote: So if the eye moves 80 miles inland down the center line of the state AND that 80 miles radius of hurricane level winds holds: at that moment 20,000 sq miles will be subjected 70+ mph winds.

Since when don't hurricanes weaken as they travel much distance over land? I'm not saying it won't be nasty over southern Florida. But if it travels straight up Florida with the eye centered over the land, it should weaken considerably before getting even halfway, or likely a quarter of the way to Florida's northern border.

The world doesn't really work the way zerohedge claims. If it did, some credible percentage of their doomsday predictions would actually occur.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 23:55:06

ROCKMAN wrote:Cid - Intetesting. Shift the eye west just about 40 miles so the left half of Irma continues sucking up water from the GOM and the east half hits the onshore with heavy rains. And you have a potential mirror image to Harvey.


=> Sounds logical ROCKMAN
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 23:59:00

MD, I think the best scenario for most of us would be for Irma to stay 50+ miles offshore over the Atlantic and turn East, the second best would be the one you describe. Now if I just concern myself with what is best for me having it head West between Key West and Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico would be OK, too, but that would screw people somewhere along the Gulf coast. Unfortunately, we won't know the exact trayectory until after it passed. I am still preparing for a direct hit by a category 5, though I expect an indirect hit by a category 4 at this time. Better safe than sorry.

I've spoken with many people evacuating and they tell me there is fuel and traffic is not too bad considering the evacuation. They all made it to their destinations; Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee.

Miami is still well supplied. I just stopped by a gas station in my neighborhood to buy ice cream and cookies on my way home and they had fuel and their walk-in cooler was completely full of water, sodas, and beer. Time for bed now ;)
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 00:35:29

Don't forget about the broken window fallacy. This will not help the economy
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby JimBof » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 05:47:09

Glad you are still here Rock, you got floaties on that wheelchair?
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 07:02:35

The models keep trending westward. I think the "worst possible case" would be a direct hit on Miami with full force preserved. IMHO a lot of the tall condos would be heavily damaged by the wind.

BUT the current GFS track is also very bad as mentioned due to the surge and waves on top. That is also very bad.

ATM it looks like our boat should be OK, provided she does not get an adjacent boat knocked into her or something stupid. Forecasts for her location, Green Cove Springs, are for under 40 knots, and she is well inland. That's typical thunderstorm stuff.

So personally I'm feeling OK with this. As long as the opening bridges on the St Johns River don't get damaged and trap me upstream behind a closed bridge I'm good. I hope! Won't be leaving until early November anyway.

It's is likely that the Florida portion of the ICW will be trashed and many/marinas gone. Likely we will have to run straight from our marina to the Abacos or Georgetown Bahamas. Maybe there will be a call to carry relief supplies to the Turks and Caicos or something.

Looks like some of the hard hit islands are going to get a second dose of it.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 07:33:11

I think a direct hit on Miami would be almost as much trouble as Houston for much the same reason. Both cities are at or barely above sea level and surrounded by flat marshy land that takes a long time to drain in heavy flooding conditions. Everyone likes to talk about the wind damage, but the water is the real telling issue to my way of thinking. Miami is already having issues with salt water intrusion on their water supply aquifers, add a large storm surge and the whole city will have many feet of sea water sitting on top soaking into the ground water layer.
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 07:36:21

Friday 8:00 AM NOAA update 9/08/17

Harvey had already reduced Florida's fuel inventories by 57%, there has been no new supply arriving with the Colonial out of service for eight days; and they are trying to evacuate Miami. Irma is projected to cut up through the middle of the state, which is exactly the way the evacuating masses are trying to flee. They are in a position of no gas, soon no food, and a CAT 4-5 hurricane bearing down on them.

If Irma continues on its present course it will shut in the New Castle refinery in Savannah,GA. That will reduce the Colonial’s northward flow to the North East by 360,00 barrels a day. The fuel shortages will spread from Florida up the East Coast. Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee are already seeing shortages.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-0 ... ve-florida

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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:09:59

ROCKMAN wrote:Hopefully this should be a short lived thread. Katia blew up to a minimal hurricane today in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The projection is for the same high pressure ridge expected to eventually turn Irma north will push Katia into Mexico. Low velocity winds but a lot of rain potential.


What are the chances this one will disrupt GOM production from Mexican and American fields?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:27:43

"New Castle", sorry wrong country, NuStar
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:32:02

Trying to attach a small scale chart of the area. I think it's interesting to see how Irma is tracking the Old Bahamas Channel.

Then you get to that triangular blue bit south of Florida. That's the Cay Sal Banks.

Does she turn Right up the Santerene Channel?

Or does she stay Left through the Nicholas Channel?

No clue how valid, if at all, this time influence is. Just sort of interesting.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:38:34

00z European model forecast for Irma's center at 8pm ET Sunday, having made landfall and traveling up Florida.
Note: projected to be at 946mb, remains a powerful hurricane.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby MD » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:40:11

whoever just stuffed the irma thread into the THE thread just pissed me off.

I'm going to split it back off and leave it the fk alone!
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