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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 15:56:25

Live from Miami Beach! It is 4:43 pm and the beach looks beautiful. It is a hot, mostly sunny day with basically no wind. I spent the whole day helping others to prepare. Rush hour traffic is the least heavy I've seen since 2008. There are few people out there. I can see a lot of people packing to evacuate. Businesses are boarding up their windows. Miami Beach stores are 1/3 boarded up.

Most gas stations have fuel, there is food and water everywhere and Home Depot is still selling everything, including plywood. There seem to be no significant shortages of supplies. My guess is most people have already filled up their tanks. I have 50 gallons of gas total.

We have a hotel room reserved outside the evacuation area but intend to stay home anyway. There really isn't much to report at this time. Miami Beach is quiet and peaceful; it is a little surreal to think about what's coming. Irma seems headed this way and a direct impact is a very real possibility at this time.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 16:09:21

thanks for that first hand account Juan. Stay safe. And remain calm haha.
Just thought I would update everyone of latest National Hurrican Center update
"SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 52.4W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 16:26:05

Thursday 5:00 PM, NOAA update 09/0717

Latest storm track puts it dead over Miami 2:00 PM Sunday. Not much change from the 2:00 PM report.

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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby GHung » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 17:08:00

Short said; "Not much change from the 2:00 PM report."

It's actually quite a significant change. The new projected path has shifted west, moving more up the center of Florida rather than brushing the southeast coast and going back over water. Still a Cat 1 as it moves into Georgia. Oldtimers here in western NC used to say this is where hurricanes come to die. Looks like Irma is going to do just that.
Atlanta forecasting 50-60 mph sustained winds Monday.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 17:23:47

Juan - Interesting. You might see little or no traffic on the road if you decide to evac while the weather is still not too bad. Everything I've heard is that a large number of folks are evac'ng much sooner then they've done is past storms. The implication being watching all the hell Houston got made them hyper concerned.

The odd thing I remember leaving Houston that Friday morning was not finding anyplace open for breakfast. Not just fast food but even convenient stores. Blue skies and I drove thru a ghost town unsuccessfully looking for a burrito or doughnut. Seriously I did not see a single person after driving around about 10 miles.

Not that I would recommend for everyone to wait till the last moment but: all you need do is drive 16 mph to avoid a hurricane coming at you at 15 mph. Not very difficult to do when there's not another car on the road with you.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 17:48:14

Good comments, all.

ol, two points. I don't see how it can be ruled out that it will hit as a cat 5 (or higher, if there were such a thing). But too many variables to be absolutely sure.

On Jose, in earlier years, one storm tracking another would have been considerably weakened, because the first storm would have cooled the surface waters considerably by evaporative cooling and upwelling of cooler, deeper waters. But now there is quite warm water at depth, so that effect is not likely to be quite such a factor. (That is my limited understanding of the matter, anyway.)

The models now are simply brutal. I hope they are wrong. I know people in the path of that thing, and in spite of my suggestions, they did not get out early.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 18:08:31

40% of Miami gas stations are now out of gas. This will get much worse over the next two day. The only way to now resupply Miami is by truck out of Georgia.

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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 18:44:42

Significant difference between GFS and Euro models. Significant in $$$ of potential damage and number of people effected. But not a huge difference in geography. The GFS model is a much more expensive hit than the Euro model.

Either model has her chewing up on Cuba, skirting N of it. That means she may still be a well organized and powerful storm at landfall.

And remember we are still over 48 hours from land fall. MUCH can change in that time.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 20:12:37

If the current forecast track holds this will be devastating for the whole eastern coast of S. Florida from Miami northwards. The new forecast exposes the high density urban core to the eastern and NE side of the eye wall. This could not be worse.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Revi » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 20:24:36

Miami is in trouble even if it tracks up the center of Florida, because the dangerous northeast quadrant of the storm would still be over Miami. Fortunately the eyewall with the most intense winds will spend itself over the everglades. Definitely a better scenario than a direct hit!
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby MD » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 20:27:51

the very latest has the storm moving west. So many east coast Floridians have run to this side. They might have to run back. The forecasters have warned constantly that the forecast, especially the turn north, is very tenuous. I'll decide tomorrow if I am going to put up my hurricane shutters. Right now it's still a no.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 20:50:29

Newfie - "Either model has her chewing up on Cuba" How far north of Cuba? Now that I've learned the rather limited radius of Hurricane winds from the eye if it's much further the 80+ miles there may not be very severe chewing of Cuba. Apparently that's what saved PR from widespread devastation.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cog » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:00:13

Evening update About 15 minutes long. Irma is projected to go very close to the northern edge of Cuba and make landfall close to Miami as a Cat 4. Still a possible shift to east, but consensus is now building between the models of a possible Miami Florida landfall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gVFeGLROmA
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:06:36

With the size of this storm, current track has Hurricane winds covering the whole peninsula from the Gulf to the Atlantic, people aren't getting this. The whole of Florida will be impacted.

Cog, that is absolute nonsense. YouTube nobody is your source?

Hurricane will hit Keys, then run up the Peninsula.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cog » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:07:15

Isn't the everglades covered in water? Could the hurricane not use that warm water to fuel itself?
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cog » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:09:16

You should watch the video Cid. He basically said exactly what you are saying. So why complain? By the way the guy you are calling a youtube nobody sounds like he is qualified to discuss hurricanes to me.


Levi Cowan creates videos pertaining to tropical cyclones, primarily hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Videos occasionally concern other, non-tropical weather events around the world. Levi is currently working on his PhD degree in tropical meteorology at Florida State University, and completed his bachelors degree in applied physics with a concentration in atmospheric physics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:15:28

shorty - "This will get much worse over the next two day. The only way to now resupply Miami is by truck out of Georgia."

No, it isn't. As the governor announced there's plenty of gasoline in the large fuel depots in FL. Those are the sources of the tank trucks he's having escorted by state police to southern FL. Sources such as:

"Lewis Oil is a 50 Year business that serves a 14 county area in North Central Florida, delivering 30 million gallons of petroleum products to convenience stores, farms, construction sites, and most importantly, act as First Responders for local, state, and federal emergency agencies and large grocery and medical concerns."

FL has enough real problems without added exaggeration. For instance does Rush Limbaugh still live there? LOL.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:20:03

Thursday, 12z European model operational run; forecast for Sunday morning at 8am ET.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:27:28

Thursday, 12z European model operational run; forecast for Sunday morning at 8am ET.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:30:46

Cog wrote:Isn't the everglades covered in water? Could the hurricane not use that warm water to fuel itself?


Yes, Hurricane Harvey maintained itself after initial landfall in exactly that manner.
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