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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 21:55:44

Cid - "...current track has Hurricane winds covering the whole peninsula from the Gulf to the Atlantic, people aren't getting this." Yep, last I heard from the Weather Channel they showed an 80 miles radius of 70+ mph winds. Thus a 160 mile spread of hurricane force winds. So if the eye moves 80 miles inland down the center line of the state AND that 80 miles radius of hurricane level winds holds: at that moment 20,000 sq miles will be subjected 70+ mph winds.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby MD » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 22:05:06

ROCKMAN wrote:Cid - "...current track has Hurricane winds covering the whole peninsula from the Gulf to the Atlantic, people aren't getting this." Yep, last I heard from the Weather Channel they showed an 80 miles radius of 70+ mph winds. Thus a 160 mile spread of hurricane force winds. So if the eye moves 80 miles inland down the center line of the state AND that 80 miles radius of hurricane level winds holds: at that moment 20,000 sq miles will be subjected 70+ mph winds.

well. Hate to say it but at this point, unless it takes a sudden turn, right up the middle of the state may be the best outcome. The everglades will take a beating from the "funnel", but it will weaken quickly as it moves north through the swamps. I don't think the alligators will care much. Lake Okeechobee could overflow for the first time since... 1938 storm? The little towns in the middle will take a beating, but both coasts/population centers will be spared the worst of it.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 22:37:36

MD wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:Cid - "...current track has Hurricane winds covering the whole peninsula from the Gulf to the Atlantic, people aren't getting this." Yep, last I heard from the Weather Channel they showed an 80 miles radius of 70+ mph winds. Thus a 160 mile spread of hurricane force winds. So if the eye moves 80 miles inland down the center line of the state AND that 80 miles radius of hurricane level winds holds: at that moment 20,000 sq miles will be subjected 70+ mph winds.

well. Hate to say it but at this point, unless it takes a sudden turn, right up the middle of the state may be the best outcome. The everglades will take a beating from the "funnel", but it will weaken quickly as it moves north through the swamps. I don't think the alligators will care much. Lake Okeechobee could overflow for the first time since... 1938 storm? The little towns in the middle will take a beating, but both coasts/population centers will be spared the worst of it.


This would be the worst case scenario. The storm surge would max out in Miami and the response teams coming from the north would have to weather and wait out the storm until it passes.
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 23:35:36

ROCKMAN wrote: So if the eye moves 80 miles inland down the center line of the state AND that 80 miles radius of hurricane level winds holds: at that moment 20,000 sq miles will be subjected 70+ mph winds.

Since when don't hurricanes weaken as they travel much distance over land? I'm not saying it won't be nasty over southern Florida. But if it travels straight up Florida with the eye centered over the land, it should weaken considerably before getting even halfway, or likely a quarter of the way to Florida's northern border.

The world doesn't really work the way zerohedge claims. If it did, some credible percentage of their doomsday predictions would actually occur.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 23:55:06

ROCKMAN wrote:Cid - Intetesting. Shift the eye west just about 40 miles so the left half of Irma continues sucking up water from the GOM and the east half hits the onshore with heavy rains. And you have a potential mirror image to Harvey.


=> Sounds logical ROCKMAN
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 23:59:00

MD, I think the best scenario for most of us would be for Irma to stay 50+ miles offshore over the Atlantic and turn East, the second best would be the one you describe. Now if I just concern myself with what is best for me having it head West between Key West and Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico would be OK, too, but that would screw people somewhere along the Gulf coast. Unfortunately, we won't know the exact trayectory until after it passed. I am still preparing for a direct hit by a category 5, though I expect an indirect hit by a category 4 at this time. Better safe than sorry.

I've spoken with many people evacuating and they tell me there is fuel and traffic is not too bad considering the evacuation. They all made it to their destinations; Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee.

Miami is still well supplied. I just stopped by a gas station in my neighborhood to buy ice cream and cookies on my way home and they had fuel and their walk-in cooler was completely full of water, sodas, and beer. Time for bed now ;)
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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 00:35:29

Don't forget about the broken window fallacy. This will not help the economy
Oil reserves are scheduled to begin a catastrophic crash within 1 to 3 years. The end of Civilization will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.

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Re: Hurricane Irma

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 07:02:35

The models keep trending westward. I think the "worst possible case" would be a direct hit on Miami with full force preserved. IMHO a lot of the tall condos would be heavily damaged by the wind.

BUT the current GFS track is also very bad as mentioned due to the surge and waves on top. That is also very bad.

ATM it looks like our boat should be OK, provided she does not get an adjacent boat knocked into her or something stupid. Forecasts for her location, Green Cove Springs, are for under 40 knots, and she is well inland. That's typical thunderstorm stuff.

So personally I'm feeling OK with this. As long as the opening bridges on the St Johns River don't get damaged and trap me upstream behind a closed bridge I'm good. I hope! Won't be leaving until early November anyway.

It's is likely that the Florida portion of the ICW will be trashed and many/marinas gone. Likely we will have to run straight from our marina to the Abacos or Georgetown Bahamas. Maybe there will be a call to carry relief supplies to the Turks and Caicos or something.

Looks like some of the hard hit islands are going to get a second dose of it.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 07:33:11

I think a direct hit on Miami would be almost as much trouble as Houston for much the same reason. Both cities are at or barely above sea level and surrounded by flat marshy land that takes a long time to drain in heavy flooding conditions. Everyone likes to talk about the wind damage, but the water is the real telling issue to my way of thinking. Miami is already having issues with salt water intrusion on their water supply aquifers, add a large storm surge and the whole city will have many feet of sea water sitting on top soaking into the ground water layer.
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Re: Hurricane Katia

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 07:36:21

Friday 8:00 AM NOAA update 9/08/17

Harvey had already reduced Florida's fuel inventories by 57%, there has been no new supply arriving with the Colonial out of service for eight days; and they are trying to evacuate Miami. Irma is projected to cut up through the middle of the state, which is exactly the way the evacuating masses are trying to flee. They are in a position of no gas, soon no food, and a CAT 4-5 hurricane bearing down on them.

If Irma continues on its present course it will shut in the New Castle refinery in Savannah,GA. That will reduce the Colonial’s northward flow to the North East by 360,00 barrels a day. The fuel shortages will spread from Florida up the East Coast. Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee are already seeing shortages.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-0 ... ve-florida

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:27:43

"New Castle", sorry wrong country, NuStar
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:32:02

Trying to attach a small scale chart of the area. I think it's interesting to see how Irma is tracking the Old Bahamas Channel.

Then you get to that triangular blue bit south of Florida. That's the Cay Sal Banks.

Does she turn Right up the Santerene Channel?

Or does she stay Left through the Nicholas Channel?

No clue how valid, if at all, this time influence is. Just sort of interesting.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:38:34

00z European model forecast for Irma's center at 8pm ET Sunday, having made landfall and traveling up Florida.
Note: projected to be at 946mb, remains a powerful hurricane.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby MD » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:40:11

whoever just stuffed the irma thread into the THE thread just pissed me off.

I'm going to split it back off and leave it the fk alone!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:45:13

ROCKMAN wrote:Cid - Intetesting. Shift the eye west just about 40 miles so the left half of Irma continues sucking up water from the GOM and the east half hits the onshore with heavy rains. And you have a potential mirror image to Harvey.


Looks like you got your shift.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:45:34

Sounds like someone fat fingered something by accident.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 08:47:12

If this Hurricane does what some models are projectin and goes upwards all the way to Tennessee and Short is right about acute gas shortages around that entire area, oh boy all I can say is my heart goes out to all those people. It seems people are more than willing to comply with the evacuation orders in Florida after hearing what happened in Houston. Really seems from accounts that a mass exodus is occuring in Florida. Also, Rockman's point got me thinking that if I an in my car, I would be very alert to bulletins either from radio or Internet Wifi about the direction of Hurricane and speed because as Rock said you just need to outrun or dodge the Monster. Here is link to evacuatioin situation in FL
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-0 ... ve-florida
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:00:29

https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/hu ... mains-cone


WeatherHurricane Irma: Tampa Bay Area Under WatchWestward shifts in Hurricane Irma’s projected path have put the Tampa Bay area in potential peril.



By Sherri Lonon (Patch Staff) - Updated September 8, 2017 9:29 am ET

TAMPA, FL — Hurricane Irma’s westward track shift Thursday resulted in more Tampa Bay area residents waking up Friday to find themselves in the Category 4 storm’s possible path. Hurricane watches have gone up for portions of Manatee and Sarasota counties while Sarasota’s coastal area is also under a storm surge watch, meaning conditions are possible within 48 hours. The entire Tampa Bay area – and most of the state – remained in the storm’s cone Friday.

By 8 a.m. Sept. 8, Irma had lost some, but not much of her punch. The beast that tore through the Caribbean, leaving at least 10 people dead in her wake, had downgraded to a strong Category 4 storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Irma was located about 450 miles southeast of Miami, moving west-northwest at 16 mph. (For more hurricane news or local news from Florida, click here to sign up forreal-time news alerts and newsletters from Tampa Patch, and click here to find your local Florida Patch. If you have an iPhone, click here to get the free Patch iPhone app.)

Watch: Analysis – Irma's 'Cone Of Uncertainty' Is Massive

 

On its current path, Irma is expected to clear the northern Cuban coastline by Saturday and make its way up the center of the state in the early morning hours Monday. Forecasters say Irma’s hurricane-force winds extend out 70 miles from the center while tropical storm-force winds reach out 185 miles. Although downgraded, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say Irma remains an “extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.”

Like Tampa Patch on Facebook and keep reading below:

Tampa Patch

At the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office in Ruskin, forecasters say Irma’s effects are likely to be felt in the region starting Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the overnight hours Saturday while hurricane conditions are expected throughout the day Sunday and into Monday.

"The main window of concern for Hurricane Irma impacts across west central and southwest Florida is Sunday through Monday afternoon,” service forecasters wrote in Friday morning’s local hurricane statement. Forecasters are urging residents to prepare for damaging winds, storm surge and the possibility of flooding rain.

“Moderate risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall may prompt several evacuations and rescues,” the agency wrote. Tornadoes are also a concern as Irma makes her way through. People who have been asked to evacuate should do so and “stick to prescribed evacuation routes.”

Irma’s westward track shift on Thursday that placed the Tampa Bay area in jeopardy wasn’t entirely surprising, given the region had been soundly within the hurricane center’s projected cone for days, experts say.

“Even without the wobble (to the west), people needed to remember the (whole) cone,” Dr. Jennifer Collinstold Patch. The University of South Florida professor teaches at the School of Geosciences and has dedicated her life to studying storms like Irma. “Some people are just focusing on one line instead of the whole cone.”

Hurricane Irma Eyes Miami • Equifax Breach Exposes Millions • Court Rebukes Trump Travel Ban: Patch Morning Briefing

Also: massive earthquake hits off Mexican coast, Amazon's new headquarters, seven sharks in an above-ground pool and more.

Collins and her students were out on Thursday, visiting rest stops along Interstate 75 to meet with and interview evacuees. While their focus was scientific, to learn more about factors that influence people to evacuate – or not – Collins found herself concerned about the number of people she encountered who lacked plans on where to go or the tools to do so efficiently.

Collins said she ran into people at the Pasco County rest stop who were struggling with paper maps to find their way, those who were unable to use the map apps on their smartphones and, more troubling, “a lot of people who had no idea where they were going to go.”
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:04:52

Tallahassee is the place to be,
Safer livin' is the life for me,
Winds spreading out so far and wide,
Keep Miami, just gimme that western side.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:24:24

onlooker wrote:https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/hurricane-irma-tampa-bay-area-remains-cone


WeatherHurricane Irma: Tampa Bay Area Under WatchWestward shifts in Hurricane Irma’s projected path have put the Tampa Bay area in potential peril.



By Sherri Lonon (Patch Staff) - Updated September 8, 2017 9:29 am ET

TAMPA, FL — Hurricane Irma’s westward track shift Thursday resulted in more Tampa Bay area residents waking up Friday to find themselves in the Category 4 storm’s possible path. Hurricane watches have gone up for portions of Manatee and Sarasota counties while Sarasota’s coastal area is also under a storm surge watch, meaning conditions are possible within 48 hours. The entire Tampa Bay area – and most of the state – remained in the storm’s cone Friday.

By 8 a.m. Sept. 8, Irma had lost some, but not much of her punch. The beast that tore through the Caribbean, leaving at least 10 people dead in her wake, had downgraded to a strong Category 4 storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Irma was located about 450 miles southeast of Miami, moving west-northwest at 16 mph. (For more hurricane news or local news from Florida, click here to sign up forreal-time news alerts and newsletters from Tampa Patch, and click here to find your local Florida Patch. If you have an iPhone, click here to get the free Patch iPhone app.)

Watch: Analysis – Irma's 'Cone Of Uncertainty' Is Massive 

On its current path, Irma is expected to clear the northern Cuban coastline by Saturday and make its way up the center of the state in the early morning hours Monday.”


"On its current path, Irma is expected to clear the northern Cuban coastline by Saturday and make its way up the center of the state in the early morning hours Monday."

Monday ?! This storm is projected to be well into Georgia by Monday. I'm seeing Saturday as when the storm comes ashore in south Florida.
Last edited by GHung on Fri 08 Sep 2017, 09:26:16, edited 1 time in total.
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