Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 17:07:12

Just looked at the GFS forecast for off Key Biscane/Miami Beach. It indicates 12 METER swells running 270° Sunday morning.

Now I'm pretty sure they will be attenuated somewhat before stringing land, but still something to consider.

The Turks and Caicos may well be obliterated.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9061
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 02:05:10

I saw many things in my life but this not untill NOW :

Image

Hurricane Twins CAT 5 YEAR 2017 @ 410 ppm CO2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoAzpa1x7jU
Blade Runner - Final scene, "Tears in Rain" Monologue

=>Amazing ISS look on IRMA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Je6BFds51eg
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3151
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 06:01:41

Image

She is perfect...

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3151
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 06:44:25

Models are shifting east. Florida will be fine.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9121
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby waterpowerman1 » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 06:48:28

Seems to be heading for Mar a Largo.
waterpowerman1
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat 06 Jul 2013, 14:44:02

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 08:24:18

Cog wrote:Models are shifting east. Florida will be fine.


:!:

Hey Cog lets hope

If not => GET Ready for combat now USA something ALIEN female BIG named IRMA is coming....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yn45pl8yXzk

=> Here she is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... lTZ16BRKpo

Hurricane Irma incredible effects in Sint Maarten | Sept 6, 2017
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

M_B_S
User avatar
M_B_S
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3151
Joined: Sat 20 Aug 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 10:21:16

Will you get some high winds and storm surge on the east coast of Florida? Sure you will but not the damage of Andrew or anything close to it.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9121
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Revi » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 12:50:20

I hate to agree with Cog, but the models are shifting east. Of course the Carolinas may still get hit with this one, or it may even take the track of the hurricane of 38 and hit New England! Not out of the range of possibilities...

We'll find out more at 5 pm when the national hurricane center comes up with their new predictions.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6709
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 13:17:24

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Yes, cog references the models...only when they agree with him!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

But really, we all want cog to be right that there will be no landfall anywhere (in the US, at least...it's too late for those poor folks on Barbuda and some of the other islands).

But last I saw, most models still show landfall in the CONUS somewhere, likely with quite an effect on Florida even if it doesn't hit. And of course what can shift east can later shift west...
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16455
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 13:42:08

Some good video footage od some of the damage in the Caribbean wrought by Irma

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=90KlEQSnya0
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7549
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 13:43:34

dohboi wrote::lol: :lol: :lol:

Yes, cog references the models...only when they agree with him!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

But really, we all want cog to be right that there will be no landfall anywhere (in the US, at least...it's too late for those poor folks on Barbuda and some of the other islands).

But last I saw, most models still show landfall in the CONUS somewhere, likely with quite an effect on Florida even if it doesn't hit. And of course what can shift east can later shift west...


You wanted someone to bet and I did two days before the models that you are using agreed with me. I'm using a model too. But its not one that the Weather Channel and DoomCentral is using.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9121
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 13:55:53

I hope your personal model is very cute! :-D

As I said, you and most on the east coast certainly want you to be right. But the main models out there still don't really 'agree' with you as much as you see to think.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16455
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 14:20:21

Any model five days out is wrong as you well know. Tomorrow and Friday will tell the tale.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9121
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 14:27:47

Of course, none are going to be exactly right (except yours perhaps??).

But they give a general idea of what is likely to happen, especially when taken together, weighting more heavily those with the best track record.

Do you have some other approach that you care to share?
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16455
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 14:41:28

Not really. I could be wrong but don't think so. I'm using a source that works with the hurricane hunters. All of the facts but not so much of the hysteria.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9121
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 15:00:43

Revi - OK, buddy, I've resisted as long as I could. I'll remind of what I told you many months ago as to what I thought of models. There's nothing at all wrong with them. As long as you don't forget that models, like masterbating, is not the real thing. LOL. I have no doubt the models will be very accurate come Friday night, since they'll be describing the real thing with respect to southern FL. LOL.

The models, if designed properly, will still depend on making some correct assumptions. Right now the most critical assumption is the response of Irma's low pressure to the high pressure ridge traveling SE from Texas. It's that high pressure "ridge" that the models are using to project that sharp right turn for Irma. But understand it was a similar high pressure ridge that caused Harvey to stall and reverse his previous path from NNE to SE and move back over the Gulf, rebuild and then traveled more then 200 miles eastward before sharply changing directions again to the NNE. That might have just been a fluke or a new dynamic related to AGW induced climate change. But it happened. So far I think/guess the good news about Irma is the 15 mph ground speed compared to Harvey's 2 mph. In terms of mass/momentum it will take a lot stronger "blocker" to control Irma then took control of Harvey.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10423
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Observerbrb » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 15:06:16

Image

Latest GFS ensemble models - Where are Cuba and Florida? You guess the answer.
Observerbrb
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon 08 Dec 2014, 14:24:48

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 15:19:21

Revi - For instance I'm pretty sure the model that Cog is hanging his hat on assumes the high pressure ridge moves faster to cover FL shielding the state and pushing Irma to that sharp right hand turn sooner then the other models. So again the correct model will be the one making the correct ASSUMPTION about the interaction of that high pressure and Irma's low pressure. Personally I have no idea which assumption is more reasonable since I have no details on that high pressure ridge. Other then it started passing over Houston last night: los humidity, blue skies and lower temps they we've had since last spring
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10423
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 16:10:52

"los humidity"

I love it when you speak Spanish, R. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yeah, there are always lots of variables. It would be nice to know what c is basing his predictions on, if anything. If he just wants to be contrarian, that's fine too, though rather less informative.

Oh, and we now have 3 hurricanes.

It's happened before, but not very often.

I'll give this much to cog...all the models (that I saw, at least) were wrong in this case, that is about katia (as to intensity development at least). We'll have to see about track, tho last I saw they were pretty wildly divergent for long term at least.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16455
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby joewp » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 00:04:16

Cog wrote:Models are shifting east. Florida will be fine.


Ya know Cog, I rarely agree with you, but I do hope you're right. :?
Joe P. joeparente.com
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
User avatar
joewp
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2054
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Keeping dry in South Florida

PreviousNext

Return to Environment

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests