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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 17:27:58

Being that Rockman is all over this story, I think it was he who mentioned that stocking up or a run on gas was aggravating the gas situation in Texas. Well, not only that but apparently also hoarding as per article
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/ ... o-14038978
Also, tempers are flairing up. http://m.mysanantonio.com/news/local/ar ... =artrecirc
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 22:06:34

In case I confused some with my description of the geometry of Harvey let me try again. The "right side" wasn't "wet". The NE quarter was wet and stalled over Houston. The SE quarter wasn't not wet. In fact it was part of the evaporation portion along with the rest of the southern half of the storm. That's why Houston accumulated so much rain: because it stalled with the southern half over the Gulf where it continuously sucked water up. As is normal when the moisture loaded winds circulate over land they start dumping the rain. That's where Houston was ground zero...for days.

Normally as a hurricane moves completely over the land it loses that moisture uptake section and starts dumping rain throughout its circulation. So normally the cumulative rain fall tends to be a function of the storm's ground speed. Slow storms accumulate high total and fast ones low total. The rate fall rates don't very greatly between slow and fast movers...just the cumulative.

Which is why Harvey could truly be called another "perfect storm": not only moving very slow but also maintained its southern half over water sucking up moisture for a couple of days. As I described it way back it essentially created a "rain conveyor belt". Which I've never seen any hurricane do in my fairly long lifetime.

Again if a time lapse shot of the region radar can be found the very unique flow pattern of Harvey is obvious. Without meaning to I was assuming everyone here was watching the radar image of Harvey continuously as I was.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 04:32:33

IRMA near CAT 5

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Last Updated: 9/5/2017, 11:00:00 AM (MET)
Location: 16.6 N 57 W Movement: W at 12 mph Wind: 150 mph Pressure: 27.67 in

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 06:05:11

This mornings predictions have her going West of our boat giving by irlt a good brush but only after running the length of Florida.

One thing I watch is the trend of the predictions. In this case they are trending westwards. The Gulf may not be out of it yet.

Rockman,

You got a big hurricane magnet over there or do you just love attention?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Revi » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 08:40:23

Irma is a Cat 5 now. We'll see, but it may be headed toward Florida. The Euro model shows it hitting both Miami and Jacksonville. Others have said maybe west coast of Florida. We'll see...

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 08:41:24

Newfie - You can run your own model in your head as well as the pros. If you can watch a detailed national weather map. Where Irma has gone is not relevant...its past track is not an indicator of where it will go. The primary input of the models the pros are running is the assumption of how the high pressure wave running thru Texas right now. It should be thru Houston tomorrow.

Now comes the guessing/assumption game. If it stalls before running very far into the GOM the steering effect will let it roll some where into FL. If it runs far enough into FL it might steer the eye towards the east coast. But if the high is strong enough into southern FL at just the right time it would steer Irma into the GOM. Not for certain but early fall fronts usually aren't very strong so the GOM might be spared.

That's why you see various models: they are determined by the assumptions made about that high pressure cell. Just my guess but those assumption will firm up by early Thursday and the probability of the future track will be relatively high.

But one thing is pretty certain now: San Juan, PR is going to take a very big hit. That Ps of the current model is very high. With so much recovery relief going into Texas right now it could stretch the already very stretched system even worse.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby GHung » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 09:15:45

The model above is two days old. As of 8AM this morning:

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 09:18:02

And new tech is showing itself in Houston: some home insurance adjusters are using drones instead of putting boots on the ground. One reason is the misuse of "destroyed" homes in Houston. There probably are some "destroyed homes" in Houston but so far of the hundreds I've seen on TV none have not been destroyed. They have been damaged by flood waters. In many cases very badly damaged and will take many tens thousands of $'s to repair...but won't be torn down.

Unfortunately the insurance adjusters have a well established financial model they can use to make such estimates: they've done it for thousands of homes in the Houston area in just the last 10 years. In fact done on hundreds in just the last 18 months: Houston homes get flooded on a regular basis by just strong thunderstorms...hurricanes not required. Same thing with flooded vehicles: thousands flooded in the last 10 years. There are many flooded homes today that were flooded and repaired just a year ago.

One reason the Feds are rethinking its policies in the national flood insurance program. There was a good example of that need based on a small island of the coast of Mississippi: just 84 homes there essentially all vaction homes. The Feds have paid out an average of $200,000 per owner over the years: every home is gaurenteed to be destroyed or severely damaged by any hurricane that hits the Mississippi coast so its not a question of if but when every home on Dauphin Island will be filing claims. IOW why not rebuild if the Feds are going to offer insurance? Obviously the premiums are acceptable for those homeowners otherwise they would just take the govt's check and not rebuild.

Houston: life in a flat land with very slow gravity drainage.

BTW they may not be getting national coverage but many communities just being flooded in the last day or so more then a week after Harvey left us. All the folks to the south where rivers are finally cresting as that rain water is finally making it south.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby GHung » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 09:24:59

IMO, homes that have made previous national flood insurance claims should not be eligible for national flood insurance in the future. The program is subsidized by tax payers throwing good money after bad.
My home will never flood. Why should I pay for someone to rebuild their dream home on the beach?
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 09:43:15

Ghung - Interesting story about that. An area along the Mississippi River in the mid-continent region was flooded and hit the Feds with $X million in claims. So the Feds did a buyout program and turned those area into greens typically for recreational activity. Not too many years later the area flooded again. According to the govt bean counters the buyout program cost 1/5 of what the new insurance claims would have run.

Something of a compromise short of just dropping homeowners completely. And probably politically safer.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 09:43:57

Image
Forecasts from the European (top) and U.S. GFS (bottom) models Tuesday morning. (University of Albany)

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... "It (electric power) is something absolutely necessary, especially due to Puerto Rico's weather. We need to have the A/C or a fan on all night," a woman told CNN affiliate WAPA.

Puerto Ricans said they are worried it would take weeks or months before the power is restored.

Last month, the director of Puerto Rico's power utility, Ricardo Ramos Rodríguez, said several factors have made the island's electric system "vulnerable and fragile," WAPA reported.

One of those factors is the shortage of employees. Many workers recently retired or left their jobs for better prospects in the US mainland, Ramos Rodríguez said.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 09:56:48

GHung wrote:IMO, homes that have made previous national flood insurance claims should not be eligible for national flood insurance in the future. The program is subsidized by tax payers throwing good money after bad.
My home will never flood. Why should I pay for someone to rebuild their dream home on the beach?


Agreed. My plan after Katrina hit Mississippi/Louisiana was simple, you get cash value of home and contents but title transfers to the Federal Government and becomes park land. No rebuilding on flood prone land because it is then national reserve land. You could even offer an exchange program where other federal land in those same states can be exchanged for the flood prone land provided it doesn't disrupt a sensitive species on the endangered list. There are millions of acres of federal land that is high and dry where floods will never happen without a truly epic set of unexpected circumstances taking place.

In effect I am saying we should move all the flooding victims out of the flood plain, if they accept federal money. If they use private wealth or private insurance they can rebuild as often as they want, but when they are receiving taxpayer funds they should be helped once, to move.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 09:57:17

Vox - Great map. Show the variations of the big "what if": what if that high pressure ridge runs Irma this way...or that way. The only projection I've seen is the high pressure cutting across central FL by the time Irma approaches. IOW she slides to the left...or to the right...or rolls right up thru the center of FL.

So pick your choice of disasters. Except for Sean Juan: that seems locked in.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 10:29:34

Looks like we get a break from Jose ...

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 10:42:42

T - The other option is for the Feds to raise the premiums to what they should have been from the start instead of giving homeowners a big discount. That way folks can make their own choice where to build. No private insurance company would have accepted a $25 billion deficit. Only the Feds who are using someone else's money. LOL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 10:49:50

Tanada,

I love it. Should have started that earlier. Take a look at the 100 year flood and SLOSH maps for NYC look like.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby GHung » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 11:04:33

Tanada said; "If they use private wealth or private insurance they can rebuild as often as they want,..."

Except for the part where my tax dollars still go to rebuild the infrastructure needed to rebuild and occupy these areas. For decades my state and federal taxes have gone to rebuild roads, bridges, utilities, etc, on the North Carolina coast for areas that wouldn't need these things if coastal development hadn't exploded. Anyone objects and the lawmakers and developers repeat the mantra that coastal development is a multi-billion dollar industry. Slip those politicians a few thousand in campaign money and they'll even make it illegal to consider climate change and sea level rise in local zoning considerations.

Meanwhile, the GOP swamp that invaded Raleigh about 10 years ago (after major gerrymandering) promised to reduce, even eliminate my state income taxes.
Gone up almost every year since, along with 'user fees' and other taxes.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 11:15:22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4SV_x_yblk

1935 Labor Day Hurricane-Graphic Death & Destruction

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4b4sLbSZWQ

=> 2017 IRMA
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 12:52:14

GHung wrote:Tanada said; "If they use private wealth or private insurance they can rebuild as often as they want,..."

Except for the part where my tax dollars still go to rebuild the infrastructure needed to rebuild and occupy these areas. For decades my state and federal taxes have gone to rebuild roads, bridges, utilities, etc, on the North Carolina coast for areas that wouldn't need these things if coastal development hadn't exploded. Anyone objects and the lawmakers and developers repeat the mantra that coastal development is a multi-billion dollar industry. Slip those politicians a few thousand in campaign money and they'll even make it illegal to consider climate change and sea level rise in local zoning considerations.

Meanwhile, the GOP swamp that invaded Raleigh about 10 years ago (after major gerrymandering) promised to reduce, even eliminate my state income taxes.
Gone up almost every year since, along with 'user fees' and other taxes.


You have to keep in mind if all that beach front turns to public property the general citizens will demand roads so they can access it for their own use. I don't go to the beach, or the high mountains, very often, but I know I am stuck paying for the roads even if I never use them.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 15:49:38

All things considered the petroleum industry is coming back on line pretty quick. But as mentioned earlier very little of our infrastructure is located in Houston. Midstream has a significant impact on manufacturing around the rest of the country:

"Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPP), Houston, said it is in the process of restoring operations at all major midstream assets impacted by Hurricane Harvey.

As of Sept. 5, the Mont Belvieu, Tex., complex resumed commercial service, including its eight NGL fractionators, six propylene splitters, isomerization plant, and octane enhancement unit. While brine containment has stabilized and NGL storage remains operational at Mont Belvieu, the partnership said it is continuing to carefully monitor the situation to determine whether it will be necessary to curtail NGL fractionation or storage services at the site.

At the Houston Ship Channel, EPP has restarted commercial service of its two marine terminals, where loadings of ethane, LPG, and polymer-grade propylene ships have now resumed. Seaway’s marine terminals in Texas City and Freeport, Tex., also have returned to commercial service, the operator said. At Beaumont, Tex., EPP’s marine terminals are operational but are not currently receiving ships since the port remains closed to traffic.

Alongside returning the partnership’s South Texas natural gas, NGL, and crude oil pipelines to commercial service, EPP also confirmed restoration of full operations at its eight natural gas processing plants and two NGL fractionators in the region. The Seaway crude pipelines from Cushing to the US Gulf Coast maintained operations throughout the weather event, and all receipt points in the Houston area remain in service as well. The TE Products pipeline from Beaumont to delivery points the US Midwest also continues to operate at full rates, but EPP’s refined products terminal in Port Arthur, Tex., currently remains offline because of high waters, EPP said."

As noted earlier I consider the release from the SPR more of a PR move then anything practical. Note above the flow of oil from the largest oil storage depot in the world towards Gulf Coast refineries was not hindered by Harvey. The problem remains the 1 to 3 weeks before those operations are back to 100% at most plants.
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