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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby GHung » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 08:52:14

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 08:56:41

dohboi - "The smart ones in Fla are already topping off their tanks, at least." And you do understand that's why stations are running out. There's still plenty of fuel at the regional terminals. Just takes time to make delivery; they don't have enough tank trucks to make all the deliveries at once.

BTW maybe the news you're watching is showing more the just Irma. You want to keep an eye on the high pressure cell coming from the NW. Why there's a low probability of Irma moving into the GOM. How fast it moves towards FL determines if Irma hits FL or further up the coast. Or doesn't make landfall anywhere in the US. Hurricanes don't control their paths...those high pressure ridges do. Sort of like water flowing between the hills. Which is what happened with Harvey: it got stuck between two hills: water doesn't tend to flow uphill.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 09:15:45

The trailing system following Irma may be guiding Irma towards Florida, (and beyond).

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... In its tropical weather outlook issued at 2 pm EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 60%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Jose.

If Jose develops and ends up within about 850 miles of Irma, it is possible that the two systems will influence each other’s tracks via the Fujiwhara phenomenon. This could push Irma’s track slightly toward the southwest and Jose’s track slightly northeast. If Jose does develop, the physics within global models would account for such interaction in their track forecasts.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurri ... chugs-west
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby GHung » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 09:23:51

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 09:44:49

The FIRST thing to be evacuated would likely be the Keys and Key West. 113 miles of not much but ocean and key on both sides. Ugly place to be caught. During cknstruction(or reconstruction?) a work train was caught out there with significant loss of life. That was a long time and much development ago.

But to Miami and the surrounding area, there are challenges. Fist a lot of the high rises are pretty vacant as far as I know. Lots of absentee SA landlords parking their money in there. But also a lot of old folks, and lots of poor folks, and lots of non-English speakers. The barrier islands have transportation issues, many areas have only one road out, much like Long Beach Island, NJ where I grew up.

Florida has standing evacuation plans and they take time to put in place. The Thing South Florida has in its favor is flatness. No elevation to concentrate the waters.

It's funny, we were looking to buy this boat and went to Tampa for the pre closing inspection. There were problems that caused me to drive around the state looking at other boats for comparison. It was January and they had a cold snap, down to 29°. At that time they were evacuating people into shelters because many homes didn't have HEAT, or at least not enough to cope. At that same time it was 35°F here in Bonavista, NL. They were spraying citrus groves, which turned some roads into black ice. Neat!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 10:23:06

A couple of training ships activated for Harvey response. It will take them a week to 10 days to prep to sail, by then Irma oils be solidly in their way.

http://gcaptain.com/marad-activates-ts- ... ey-relief/

And another military vessel on the way sooner.

http://gcaptain.com/military-sealift-co ... f-efforts/

In another story the USCG has done an assessment of the ports. Some fly over images and video here.

http://gcaptain.com/texas-ports-update- ... tos-video/
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 10:35:33

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

... A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 10:59:04

Thanks for the thoughtful, informed comments, Newf.

And yes, once again, Rock, I'm sure you are right that, because an evacuation was done very, very badly, no one should ever evacuate again. Oh, and I just heard about some heart surgery that went badly, so I guess we shouldn't have any more of that anymore either. :P

Really, I would like it if people would read what I am actually proposing just for once rather than responding to what they think I was going to say (or just constructing strawmen from whole cloth...to mix metaphors).

I would actually like to know if anyone has any specific problem with evacuating a few thousand of the most vulnerable at this point (or earlier). Yes, it would have to be case by case, and someone would have to judge whether, in some cases, the risks of moving patients or others outweighs the risks of staying.

//////////

Oh, and by the way, we have yet another potential storm brewing in the Atlantic at 9.6°N 35.4°W, 94L...joy of joys 8O :? :shock:

I think the real issue is likely that no one wants to take the responsibility and liability of moving people, because if something does go wrong, they could be liable. Whereas just leaving people in harms way, I guess it's just considered an 'act of God' if they get killed or hurt?
Last edited by dohboi on Mon 04 Sep 2017, 11:06:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 11:01:35

Brokers moving gas from Europe to the USA, or maybe Mexico.


http://gcaptain.com/oil-traders-grab-ga ... y-hit-u-s/
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 11:16:49

dohboi wrote:I would actually like to know if anyone has any specific problem with evacuating a few thousand of the most vulnerable at this point (or earlier). Yes, it would have to be case by case, and someone would have to judge whether, in some cases, the risks of moving patients or others outweighs the risks of staying.


As long as you're willing to accept that a dozen or two of those few thousand moved, will die in the process of being moved, then you can start to have that discussion.

The right answer of course is to base your decision upon least harm, and not least media outrage. But least harm at this point in Irma's track is just impossible to know. Do we evacuate all the most vulnerable from NYC now? In five days? The night before? Each choice produces a different number of those killed by storm vs killed by evacuation; and that result is not knowable until the storm is a day or two away at best.

Personally speaking, as messy as it was, I think Houston's choice produced the best possible result. Almost all fatalities were the result of people disobeying instruction from emergency management, and the number was in the tens, not hundreds. Those "at risk" folks you talk about? Didn't die. Pure win. I'm not sure what result you are after that can compete with that.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 11:44:01

Models now showing a tropical depression forming in three or four days in the southern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of Campeche), near where Harvey started to strengthen. :cry:

And some models now showing Jose looping around and then following in the path of Irma!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 11:59:45

And models are pretty useless 48 hours out.

Life's a crap shoot, smok'em while you've got 'em.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 12:01:16

Oh, definitely. Just a wild possibility out there.

Jeff Piotrowski now live streaming on the situation:

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1vOxwOAZevVxB
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 12:12:53

dohboi - "I would actually like to know if anyone has any specific problem with evacuating a few thousand of the most vulnerable at this point." Yes, I would if you moved them to a location where Irma eventually hits. Wouldn't you regret it? Imagine if two days before Harvey hit they moved the most vulnerable in Corpus Christie (the projected landfall) to Houston 240 miles away. Houston where we were just in a hurricane watch designation area and not the more severe hurricane warning zone. Houston that had a projection of only top winds of 40 mph and a few inches of rain.

I guess for folks that haven't lived a lifetime in Hurricane Alley like the Rockman can't appreciate the inability to correctly predict the paths and destructive force of these storms. And then once a high probiloty is reached the difficulty of evacuating at that point.

Again to beat that point to death: even as Harvey began coming onshore in south Texas its future path was still projected to the northwest AWAY FROM HOUSTON. It wasn't until that unusually heavy outer rain band 240 MILES FROM HARVEY'S EYE started dumping a lot of rain on us and Harvey REVERSED ITS PATH 180 DEGREES that the danger to Houston became apparent. But at that point evacuating would be too dangerous leading the mayor to recommending folks to shelter in place. Probably a good call given how many died in the early hours trying to leave the city. Like the single largest loss of life incident when 6 family members (including 4 children) drowned when their van was swept of the road into a bayou. Even dangerous for a very experienced cop who had dealt with numerous floods before who drowned in his squad car while bravely trying to reach other folks who decided to not shelter in place.

Again Harvey was very unique. As I described Harvey stopped moving NW and reversed course 180 degrees to the SE. And did this right on top of the town of Victoria. Victoria, 220 miles west of Houston, where my daughter lives. Victoria where the eye of Harvey passed over twice and suffered no signiticant damage compared to Houston. Think about that for a moment: the eye of Harvey missed Houston by over 200 miles to the west and then reversed course, swung south and then made landfall a second time about 100 miles east of Houston. Historically the most severe damage from a hurricane happens where the eye wall immediately surrounding the center hits an area. And that zone sat on top of Victoria for almost 24 hours because Harvey was only moving 2 mph at that time. And yet with Harvey the worse damage came from a very narrow outer rain band that pounded Houston when the eye was 80 to 200 miles away. Even more amazing: Atlanta, Georgia, received heavy rains from Harvey's outer rain band when the eye was passing thru Western Louisiana. Look at a map if you're not familiar with our geography: between the Harvey's eye and Atlanta was eastern Louisiana and the states of Mississippi and Alabama as well as western Georgia.

But I'm sure you're aware of all those facts. LOL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 12:54:29

R wrote: " I would if you moved them to a location where Irma eventually hits"

Yeah, it would be really stupid to do something that was really stupid! :-D :-D

Obviously, one would prioritize moving people inland. Even if there are effects inland, they are almost certain not to be as extreme as on or near the coast.

And yes, I was tracking Harvey and I lived in GA for ten years, so I am well aware of both facts and the geography. None of which makes a cogent argument against my case. As you are very well aware, the worst flooding and surge generally happens to the 'right' side of the eye (in the northern hemisphere), in this case to its east, so anyone even vaguely aware of that elementary fact would have known early on, even if (especially if, actually) they were aware that the eye would hit closer to Corpus Christi.

But again, you are a smart guy and know these things, so I have to assume you are intentionally misrepresenting things to be cute or something...very trollish behavior...but then...
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 13:48:59

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 14:59:21

Dohboi,

I don't think Rockman is trolling you. I think he exhibiting a great deal of patience and good humor. While you may disagree with his assessment there is no reason to disparage his intent. Your arguments are not half as convincing or clever as you seem to think.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 15:07:14

Sooo, you don't think that he is constantly misrepresenting my position?

You think he doesn't know that the right side of a hurricane has the largest rain and storm surge...?

I will admit that he is more clever and slick than I at being disingenuous and insincere...so...thanks for the complement. :-D
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 16:14:56

Newfie - Here's the odd thing about Harvey: the right side was not the wet side. The area to to immediate east of the center got very little rain and thus no flooding. As I pointed out Victoria sat for hours on the right side of Harvey and got little flooding compared to Houstom. I could post a list of dozens of towns on the right side of Harvey between where it came ashore and Houston and they would be unfamiliar to you because they aren't in the news...they didn't get the flooding rain like Houston. And they all sat on the right side of Harvey for a couple of days.

I assume most here weren't constantly watching Harvey like I was. Seen if you can find a time lapse image of the rain fall patter of Harvey as it came ashore. Even Rockport, ground zero for Harvey's eye, didn't get that much rain: it got wiped out by the wind. In fact while flooding rains were falling in Houston T crews were showing the destruction in Rockport and there was no flooding.

But if you were watching the rain pattern as Harvey moved along the Texas coast or search for it on the web you cannot appreciate that Harvey DID NOT behave like the typical "wet side" to east y'all are talking about. For more then 2 days the heavy rains fell only in a semicircular band only about 60 miles wide. And that band stayed over Houston the entire time. As I' e pointed out the Harvey rains NOT FALL at an unsually high rate: 3" to 5" per hour. That's not unusual during our regular spring thunderstorms. What was EXTREMELY UNUSAL was for such a RELATIVE SMALL area such as Houston (compared to all of SE Texas) to have such rains fall for 48+ straight hours. Remember I live 25 miles east of d/t Houston an just at the outer edge of that rain band and I got less the 20% of the rain that fell in Houston.

And I don't understand the trolling statement. Not everything in my post is directed at anyone person. That would be a waste of my time. What Inpost is meant for a much wider audience even if was motivated by another person's post. IOW it ain't always about my buddy dohboi. LOL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 16:32:03

And update on that vehicle "graveyard" growing east of Houston as more flooded cars are hauled there. The insurance companies have 100+ inspectors going thru them now. The initial estimate is that a minimum of 75% will be totaled. The parking lot of the race track has been leased for 6 month. Also estimating that 15% of the cars did not carry insurance beyond the required liability coverage.
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