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Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 12:57:49

dohboi - That concrete spillway might have looked nicer before the washover. Also given it and the cap were contracts awarded by the Feds so the design might have been more aesthetic then practical. I once drove on such a cap laid down as per Corps of Engineers specs on a levee in S Louisiana. So torn up
by pickup traffic it was more like a gravel road.

I know how to lay a strong concrete pad...done it many times on a well site. And it ain't cheap. But I've never had one fail. And when abandoning I give it to landowner even if I have to pay him a little. A lot cheaper then ripping out one on those SOB's. LOL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 13:16:19

dohboi - I just sent an email to the mayor's office based on a TV report I saw this morning. Such a good idea IMO that I'm surprised a national web site has not been set up to cover all emergencies. One rediculous story from that relief worker: $300,000 was spent flying water to an African country. The same volume of clean drinking water could have been produced with a hand operated filtration system that costs $300. One relief worker made a good point: many folks want to feel a personal connection they get from sending an item they don't get from sending cash. But paying for an item on a website might overcome that resistance.

To the Houston mayor: "An alternative approach the mayor might consider: a "bridle registry"...of sorts. Seriously...finish reading. Saw a story this morning: folks with volunteer organizations that have dealt with major disasters described millions of pounds of donated material that had to be discarded. Long story short: stuff that wasn't needed.

An alternative: leader of one charity working Hurricane Sandy (?) relief set up a web site similar to a wedding registry. That way folks would know exactly what was needed. And instead of mailing items they could pay for them on the site and the charity could buy items wholesale in volume from suppliers. Like baby diapers and formula. Cuts down individual shipping costs and time as well as getting thousands of teddy bears that had to be sent to the landfill. True story: after the shooting at Sandy Hook the city had to dispose of more then 40,000 teddy bears."

In this Internet age with options such as PayPal this should be very effective.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby GASMON » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 14:46:23

Similar thing happened in London after the disastrous Grenfell tower block fire.

Lots and lots of donations of clothing, furniture, kids toys etc, but they ran out of storage space etc. Lots of money donated also - easily stored but as ever problems with distribution - who gets what, when, etc.

Seriously though disaster planning needs a whole new rethink everywhere, and for many types of disaster. Folks do really try to help in these circumstances and donate what they can. It's the planning / leadership / distribution etc that is always behind the curve in these events.

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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 18:14:14

Rock, that sounds brilliant. I hope he or someone takes the idea and runs with it!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 21:19:18

ROCKMAN wrote:dohboi - The dikes have a concrete cap. Likewise the uncontrolled overflow went thru concrete spillways. But eventually as the soil in the dikes stay saturated with water failure potential increases.

On a side note I was thinking about various logistic problems we face. For instance thousand of flooded vehicles. Forget about nasty/smelly seats for now. The biggest problem will be the electrical systems. Four obvious INSURMOUNTABLE problems. First, not enough tow trucks to haul them to repair shops. Second not enough room at those shops to store them. Third not enough parts. Forth not enough mechanics.

And came up with a plan. First, repair them where they sit with mobile crews. So problems 1 & 2. Ship large volumes of circuit boards etc directly from the manufacturers including foreign suppliers. The Feds can organize that...problem 3 addressed. Now the mechanics: there are thousands available in the country and even overseas that can be flown in quickly. And the Houston folks won't even have to pay them: the US military. Given the number of vehicles our military has to maintain we may have more auto mechanics then ground pounders.

May not sound like much but think about the thousands that will need transportation as homes and business are repaired. As well as folks needing transport to work: the vast majority of businesses were not flooded. And getting a paycheck is vital for folks looking at thousands of $'s of home repairs.

One other item that doesn't come to mind immediately: trash removal. Millions of pounds of sheet rock and ruined couches/chairs are beginning to collect on our streets TODAY. The major has asked for an immediate advancement from FEMA. He's estimating $250 million to $1 BILLION will ultimately be spent
on just trash disposal. And the next question: where to dispose of it? Obviously Houston's current landfills are totally inadequate. The city/county will have to buy a lot a acreage nearby. Some can be burned such as furniture and carpeting...creating lots of pollution. But millions of pounds of wet sheet rock won't.

Probably some lessons from Sandy can be gleemed from that experience.


I have a better plan, pick up all the flood killed vehicles, write them off and replace them as part of the insurance adjustment under a 'cash for clunkers' style pay off from the feds. Most of them will never be worth much because the cost of doing a comprehensive rebuild to not only make them fully functional but to get all the stench and moisture damage out of the interior exceeds the value by a considerable margin. The average vehicle in America, including presumably in Houston, is over 5 years old. That may only be 25-33% of the ultimate lifetime of an average vehicle, but it is the period when it loses well over half of its cash value from the day it left the manufacturer. Far better to put them all through a recycling shredder and keep those damaged parts out of the resale market.

This does require shipping in a lot of used and even new cars to the region but there are more than enough vehicles for sale in the rest of the country to replace them all very quickly, and the cost savings of just scrap and replace will be significantly lower than the cost of hauling in repair parts and paying mechanics a decent wage to extract old and replace with new.

I bought a car with 'minor water damage' once, in this case a driver skidded off the road and gently deposited it in a ditch with just enough water to damage the driver side doors. Once it dried out the dealer sold it as 'fixed' because the electronic lock in the driver door still worked and none of the other electronics were affected. Unfortunately though it had hand crank windows the ones on the driver side were always stiff because water had washed away enough lubricant to start rust on the internal window track and cable system. Eventually the driver window innards snapped, I came out to get in the car and discovered the window down about 3". Turning the crank did nothing and I could pull the window up, but the first bump in the road and it would drop back down 3 inches. Sold the car to a mechanic in the family for $1 plus services rendered because my spouse got a new vehicle and passed the old car on to me. It had a lot of miles and was 17 years old so passing it on to someone who needed a car and was willing to do the work themselves was the right answer for my family. I only tell you this to point out detecting and fixing everything wrong with a flood damaged vehicle is not for the feint of heart, and to do it right it will be extremely expensive compared to the scrap and replace option. All the cars 'fixed' after the flood would be a major headache in the used car market because they would be turning up at dealerships around the country within months as the owners decide to get rid of them before the less obvious problems make themselves known. If the government doesn't pony up for scrap and replace expect resale cars from Texas to have a very low blue book value as people in the rest of the country will be leery of them.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 21:37:44

dohboi wrote:Rock, that sounds brilliant. I hope he or someone takes the idea and runs with it!


Two places I donate to with this in mind,

http://www.theprovisionsproject.org/

https://www.mercuryone.org/hurricane-harvey/
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 23:05:10

T - More details on the 100,000 flooded vehicle lot in Baytown. Organization came together faster then I expected. It's been organized by the insurance companies. They are being grouped by insurer. They have 25 front end loaders and 300 tow trucks contracted. They hope to have all the claims cleared within 5 months. Not surprising: already see a lot of adds by the car dealerships.

One of the stranger sights in the flooded portion of Baytown: the fuel tanks at a gas station floated up through the concrete. The power of bouyancy. Around Houston seeing shots of millions of pounds of sheet rock, furniture, carpet and refrigerators already stacking up in front of formally flooded houses. Given we're starting our regular fall rainy season and still have high water in all the streams might be wise to put off the fixes.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 23:25:11

ROCKMAN wrote:T - More details on the 100,000 flooded vehicle lot in Baytown. Organization came together faster then I expected. It's been organized by the insurance companies. They are being grouped by insurer. They have 25 front end loaders and 300 tow trucks contracted. They hope to have all the claims cleared within 5 months. Not surprising: already see a lot of adds by the car dealerships.

One of the stranger sights in the flooded portion of Baytown: the fuel tanks at a gas station floated up through the concrete. The power of bouyancy. Around Houston seeing shots of millions of pounds of sheet rock, furniture, carpet and refrigerators already stacking up in front of formally flooded houses. Given we're starting our regular fall rainy season and still have high water in all the streams might be wise to put off the fixes.


DETROIT — As Harvey moved away from Southeast Texas, aerial photos revealed thousands of cars covered by floodwaters on streets, parking lots and in driveways.

By the time the water recedes, auto industry experts estimate that 500,000 to 1 million vehicles will have been damaged by water, with most being total losses.

State Farm, one of the largest U.S. auto insurers, says it has already received almost 20,000 claims from the Houston area.

Cars sat in water for days, in many cases up to the windows or roof lines. It’s likely they’ll never be driven again.

Here are answers to questions about what will happen to those vehicles and how to handle your car in the aftermath of the epic storm.

Q: SHOULD I START MY CAR IF IT’S BEEN FLOODED?

A: No, in almost all cases. If the car was only in a few inches of water that didn’t rise past the bottom of the body, maybe. Water higher than that can get into wires, transmission parts, the exhaust or other places. Deeper water could enter the cylinders that surround the pistons. Trying to start the car could bend parts that connect the pistons to the rest of the drive train, said John Nielsen, managing director of automotive engineering for AAA. Oil, gasoline, antifreeze, brake fluid and other liquids could have water in them that could cause damage if not replaced. Nielsen recommends having the car towed to a mechanic for inspection. Depending on the severity of flood damage, he says the cost of refurbishing a car likely will be more than replacing it.

Q: IF IT’S REPAIRED, WILL MY CAR BE SAFE?

A: Probably not. Water could have damaged sensors, electrical connectors, computer chips and wiring that are under the carpet, behind the dashboard or in the engine compartment. That could disable lights, air bags, ignition, gas and brake pedal sensors or other essential systems. Corrosion can form beneath wiring insulation. Salty water from the Gulf of Mexico would make that worse. Damage may not surface for years. “Maybe it’s OK. Maybe it’s not. I would be really worried about it,” says Nielsen.

Q: WILL INSURANCE COVER A FLOODED CAR?

A: Depends on your coverage. If you’re financing or leasing, your lender likely requires comprehensive insurance, which typically covers flood damage along with fire, vandalism or falling objects. But if you own a car outright, or it’s old and would be more expensive to repair than it’s worth, you may choose not to get comprehensive coverage. As of 2013, 78 percent of U.S. insured drivers had comprehensive coverage, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

Q: HOW DO INSURERS HANDLE FLOODED CARS?

A: Once an owner files a claim, the insurer will evaluate the damage. Many states have guidelines for a vehicle to be considered a total loss, including the extent and type of damage and the cost of repair, says Missy Dundov, a spokeswoman for State Farm. If the insurer determines the vehicle is a total loss, it will pay the owner — minus a deductible that’s typically $500 to $1,000 — and take the vehicle and the title.

Q: WHERE DO FLOODED CARS GO?

A: Insurers will turn the cars over to auctions or salvage yards. Undamaged parts will be salvaged and many vehicles will be scrapped. Some will go to salvage auctions, says Tim West, vice president and North American auction director for Black Book, a service that calculates used car prices. Everything that’s ruled a total loss by an insurance company should get a salvage title. But consumers should be careful. A vehicle considered a total loss in one state might not require a salvage title in another state, says Ron Montoya, a senior consumer advice editor for Edmunds.com.

Q: HOW CAN I AVOID BUYING A FLOOD-DAMAGED VEHICLE?

A: Flooded cars could be shipped to other parts of the country or even other nations. To find out where the car came from and if it has a salvage title, experts suggest keying the vehicle identification number into services (there’s a charge) that search car histories such as Autocheck or Carfax. Carfax and the National Insurance Crime Bureau offer free services to check for flood damage. Buyers can ask to take the car to a mechanic for inspection. Buyers can also look for signs of flooding, including musty or moldy odors or overpowering use of air freshener, discolored carpet or new carpet in an old car, water lines in the engine compartment or trunk, fogging inside headlights or taillights, rust or flaking metal under the car, and dirt buildup in unusual areas such as around seat tracks. If you see any signs, don’t buy the car, AAA’s Nielsen says. “You’re liable to face gremlins with that car forever,” he said.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 23:49:02

OK, I know you guys already think I'm batshit crazy, but they should start evacuating Florida...NOW!

Again, not everyone has to go now, and really not everyone has to go ever, probably.

But most highways should be shut off to all but northbound traffic and those in most peril...the elderly, those needing reliable electricity for medical devices...should be taken inland mostly to place in GA (non-coastal) and Alabama.

Yes, it's a huge ordeal. But easier to do while roads still aren't flooded and winds are not yet 200+ mph and storm surge is not yet 50-60 ft!

Newest models show it hitting Miami and then strafing the whole peninsula.

(Sorry, I guess this should have gone in the Irma thread...but last I looked, Irma was a hurricane, and this is still 2017, right? So...shouldn't the Irma thread really be folded into this one?? Anyway...yes, I know, 20 million people in Florida...bla bla bla....but they don't all have to go and they don't all have to go at once..got it???)
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 02:17:35

Image


Now it is 95% clear that IRMA will hit the US mainland on ~911 with CAT 4-5

<1% possibility that IRMA hits New York on 911 @ CAT 4-5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIm671DPP7w

@ dohboi you are right

European traveling to Florida Miami are being warned not to do so ....

http://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker ... 7090413447


Musik ON

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w1BARxt7dM
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Cog » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 05:00:21

I know why Ford and GM stock was up sharply Friday. They are looking to sell a whole lot of trucks and SUV's over the next two quarters.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 06:01:52

GET READY NOW

Image
Governor Scott urges families to prepare for Hurricane Irma
Rodney Dunigan
5:46 AM, Sep 4, 2017
24 mins ago
http://www.wptv.com/news/region-c-palm- ... heads-west

Palm Beach County residents stock up on supplies as Hurricane Irma heads west

=> History lessons
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane



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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 07:24:36

OK, I know you guys already think I'm batshit crazy, but they should start evacuating Florida...NOW!


One problem with evacuating may be a shortage of fuel. Harvey reduced wholesale/retail inventories by 25%; about 9 million barrels that still have not been replaced. A major run on gas stations would drain the state's fuel supply rapidly. They are probably better off staying in place, and using their remaining fuel for response after the storm hits.

There is one remaining operating refinery on the East Coast between Florida and Delaware; New Star in Savannah, GA. It is a 320,000 barrel per day plant. It has not shown a profit since 2011, and its annual revenue has fallen by 70%. With eight refineries still off line, or working at greatly reduced rates in the Gulf, the loss of New Star is likely to leave the Colonial with insufficient input to keep operating between Charles City, and NJ. The loss of New Star would also have a serious impact on production in the Bakken. They are one of that field's largest buyers. It is also questionable that if New Star was damaged badly if the owners would even bother to restart it. It is not a profitable operation.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 07:40:03

Doubling,

Too-many-people!
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 07:44:40

Thanks for the insight, mbs and soo. And yes, petrol shortages are definitely going to be a problem. The smart ones in Fla are already topping off their tanks, at least.

But a coordinated effort could move an awful lot of the most vulnerable people relatively efficiently in buses out of harms way. Easier than trying to move them in boats after it hits.

The latest models show the system moving further east between turning north, so it is now increasingly unlikely that CONUS will remain wholly unaffected. Even if it stays off shore as it passes Florida, it will likely be close enough to do some major damage, at least to the east coast.

But the most likely scenario still seems to be a direct hit in the middle or even slightly west...bad for my friends in Naples, I'm afraid.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby Cog » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 08:07:31

There is no shortage of gasoline in Florida Shorty but please keep spreading the fake doom. Its comical.

This hurricane will be a nothing burger and not impact the continental USA in any significant way. It will veer off into the Atlantic.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 08:18:21

dohboi - "but they should start evacuating Florida...NOW!" To where... Georgia...S Carolina? And the if Irma turns up the coast as they often do would you take responsibility for FL folks killed in those states? And the folks killed in FL while evac'ng? Remember my story: about 100 where killed evac'ng Houston for Rita...the Hurricane that turned missing the city where it killed no one? That's the problem when trying to get away from a hurricane when you don't know exactly where it's going. Let's not forget: Harvey came ashore 220 miles SW of Houston AND WAS MOVING AWAY from the city until it reversed direction and traveled 90 degrees to the NE to hit us. Meanwhile Corpus Christi, the original predicted target was evacuated by many got very little rain and no significant damage.

And note: the projections that proved very wrong were made only 24 hours before Harvey came ashore. Tell me: once you perfect predicting the paths of hurricanes what's next...accurately predicting the future price of oil? LOL.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 08:30:55

And not only are Texans "tough" we also have a dark sense of humor. On the news just now it showed a street where big piles of debris moved from the houses have accumulated in the front yards. At the end of the street was the biggest pile of all. And on top of it a sign: YARD OF THE MONTH.

You can cry or laugh. You get to choose sometimes.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 08:39:17

Stop worrying about gasoline shortages around the country. Y'all can start worrying about a rental car shortage: one rental company is moving 21,000 cars to Houston.
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Re: Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon Season 2017

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 08:49:35

But the most likely scenario still seems to be a direct hit in the middle or even slightly west...bad for my friends in Naples, I'm afraid.


With 50 to 60 foot waves coming in with this storm moving inland at least a mile would seem like a really good idea. Hope they don't live on the beach. I'm concerned about my friends in Sarasota. They said they were going to wait one more day, and if it hadn't headed north or south come up to their kids place in Alexander, Va. Told them not to leave a scent trail that the storm could follow, I'm only 40 miles south of there.
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