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Crude to hit $10-20?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 16 Dec 2015, 07:11:14

The crappier grades of oil are even low, closing in on $20:

As oil crashed through $35 a barrel in New York, some producers were already living with the reality of much lower prices. A mix of Mexican crudes is already valued at less than $28, an 11-year low, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Iraq is offering its heaviest variety of oil to buyers in Asia for about $25. In western Canada, some producers are selling for less than $22 a barrel.
Never Mind $35, The World's Cheapest Oil Is Already Close to $20
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 16 Dec 2015, 08:45:34

Newfie - "Tankers laden with diesel heading from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe are turning around in mid-ocean as European storage is nearly filled to the brim." Which brings us back to the point I made the other day about this absurd propaganda that there's a US oil export ban (despite the fact we are currently exporting more than 200 million bbl per year). So where is this huge demand for US oil beyond the Canadian exports? After all if the EU had wanted US oil any company could have gotten a waiver from the govt to ship it across the Big Pond. If the EU doesn’t want our motor fuel why would they want any of oil? Unless, of course, if our companies undercut the ME prices. But I don’t see how that would be beneficial to our oil path or economy.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 16 Dec 2015, 10:27:32

Bakken grease is $27/bbl according to the Director's Cut

Also noticed this link on the main page
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/TA%20GEN% ... 102815.pdf
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 13 Jan 2016, 17:17:11

Crude oil hits 12-year low as traders predict $10 a barrel
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/crud ... 54136.html
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 13 Jan 2016, 22:55:34

Claim cheap gas validates peak-oil all you want, but you'll win few converts with such logic.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 08:55:19

pstarr wrote:Oscillation is the “natural” behavior of the price of a resource when it becomes scarce.


Or...it could just simply be a glut.

I'd love to see Planty chime in here because I know he's with me on this one.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 10:42:00

If equities continue to fall I'd not be surprised for it to go below $30 a ways.
OTOH, a big equities rout and junk bond collapse might put an end to the drillers still hanging on in the US. Or, who knows, lifting the ban might just give them a new lease on life (sorta speak)

Support for oil prices is either the greed of hoping the price rises or the fear that the supply will fall and you (refiner) will be caught short.

All I know is what I read but the 1 year contango is $31 next month vs $38 feb '17. Not the $20 it was in 2009 but still pretty high.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 13:30:05

dissident wrote: The OP is basically trolling in some lame attempt to insinuate that peak oil is a bogus concept. I guess a world depression makes peak oil wrong.


Yeah, and a world debt to GDP ratio of 313% proves it. :roll:
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 13:36:22

[quote="Outcast_Searcher"If people simply can't afford oil products at current prices (with slow world growth continuing) how in the WORLD did they afford the price just FINE four the four years ending roughly 8/2014 at nearly $100 per barrel on average, while global economic growth chugged ahead during those years?[/quote]

Easy. They borrowed $60 trillion dollars at zero interest.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 13:52:39

El_Producto wrote:To back up your last point, they find that technology is a net GAINER in energy use and emissions, and thus project GHG to increase over the next 50 years, by a lot. 8O


I wrote at length about this years ago in this site. Technology increases the speed at which we consume energy. We can do things faster and that increases demand. It's another form of the Jevons Paradox.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 14:45:26

ennui2 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Oscillation is the “natural” behavior of the price of a resource when it becomes scarce.


Or...it could just simply be a glut.

I'd love to see Planty chime in here because I know he's with me on this one.


We are in an oil glut just now---no doubt of that.

However, Peter is also right that prices naturally oscillate. In the oil biz those oscillations tend to take the form of boom-bust cycles---we just had an oil "boom" with high oil prices and drilling going on everywhere---even in crappy tight shales.

Right now we are in an oil bust due to oil oversupply coupled with weak demand growth, and oil drilling will drop off to near zero. That will set the stage for the next oil boom down the road.

Eventually we'll get to peak oil. Maybe the peak is even happening now in the current oil glut----the Saudis and Russians are sure ash heck pumping out their conventional oil reserves as fast as they can.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 15:04:30

pstarr wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Eventually we'll get to peak oil. Maybe the peak is even happening now in the current oil glut----the Saudis and Russians are sure ash heck pumping out their conventional oil reserves as fast as they can.

Oh no :( Another Brave Consumer Warrior for Christian America falls to the hedonistic doom of the Non-Believer Cult. We must go to war!


We already are at war---in three countries, no less.

The war in Afghanistan in still dribbling along for a 15th year and Obama's got us back at war in Iraq and he's started a bonus war in Syria as well. :idea:
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 19:25:59

I knew Planty couldn't poke his nose in here without inserting some Obama bashing. God I am so looking forward to the election, but I suspect he'll just shift over to Clinton bashing.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 19:42:12

ennui2 wrote: ….Obama bashing.


Its just a fact that Obama has gone back on his promise to get the US out of Iraq. Obama has also got the US involved in a war in Syria. Obama has also gone back on his promise to get US troops out of Afghanistan

ennui2 wrote: ... Clinton bashing.


I'm not bashing obama or clinton----I simply say truthful things about them and you can't handle the truth.

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Hey creampuff---you can't handle the truth!
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 23:42:03

Plantagenet wrote:I'm not bashing obama


Nobody buys that argument but you, dude, and I'm not the only one who has pinned you on your unhealthy obsession with the man.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby JimBof » Fri 15 Jan 2016, 04:01:39

Obama is not the worst president the US has had, neither is he the best. Just like here in Australia we put the other mob in when the current one stinks too much. Personally I subscribe to the practice of voting for the least worst one, because there is no best one, they all stink.
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Re: Crude to hit $10-20?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Jan 2016, 18:15:10

ennui2 wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:I'm not bashing obama


Nobody buys that argument but you, dude, and I'm not the only one who has pinned you on your unhealthy obsession with the man.

Funny how the constant Dubya bashers tend to hate the Obama bashers.

As though EITHER president didn't have PLENTY of room for criticism, on many fronts.

But do carry on. Heaven forbid free speech allow criticism of something someone doesn't agree with. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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