[Quinny]

How can anyone in their right mind quote Nuland. She's one of the fucking architects of the crisis!

The US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, Victoria Nuland, told Congress this month: "We are extremely concerned about the human rights situation for all Crimeans but notably for Tatars."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... an-ukraine

[Sixstrings]

How can anyone in their right mind quote Nuland. She's one of the fucking architects of the crisis!

Do you not care about the Tatars, Quinn? If Tatars get messed with in Crimea, you're really blaming that on the US?

My views align with the Obama Administration. ALL these people matter. Tatars and ethnic Russians were getting along just fine, ALL THESE YEARS NOW, we're talking 25 years since the '90s.

Now suddenly Tatars say everyone looks at them like "the enemy."

The United Nations is concerned about the Tatars in Crimea:

In a new report, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay also voiced deep concern about "serious problems" of harassment and intimidation facing the Tatar community in Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in March in the face of international outrage.

The report catalogues a litany of "targeted killings, torture and beatings, abductions, intimidation and some cases of sexual harassment" which it said was carried out by anti-government groups in the east of Ukraine.

In a veiled reference to Russia, Pillay called on "those with influence on the armed groups responsible for much of the violence in eastern Ukraine to do their utmost to rein in these men who seem bent on tearing the country apart".
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/un-reports-alarming-deterioration-of-human-rights-in-east-ukraine/articleshow/35218538.cms

[AgentR11]

My views align with the Obama Administration. ALL these people matter. Tatars and ethnic Russians were getting along just fine, ALL THESE YEARS NOW, we're talking 25 years since the '90s.

As they would be now, if EU/NATO hadn't moved to place Svestapol's status in jeopardy.

Actions have consequences. The oil and gas resources in the Crimea's EEZ in the Black Sea make the move profitable, but Svestapol made the change critical to Russian long term, strategic interest. Svestapol is not a survivable loss.

So, the real question is, how should the ethnicities in Ukraine that do not support Kiev be treated, and how should the ethinicities in Crimea that do not support Moscow be treated. The ones in Ukraine are being bombed by aircraft and artillery loyal to Kiev at the moment. I think the Tatars are on the more comfortable side of the equation; though that doesn't diminish the worth of their concern.

edit: fixed a mangled sentence... apologies.

[Strummer]

Tatars and ethnic Russians were getting along just fine, ALL THESE YEARS NOW, we're talking 25 years since the '90s.

Now suddenly Tatars say everyone looks at them like "the enemy."

Oh, really? Here's a report from the UN Human Rights Committee, from June 2013. Read it.

http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrc/docs/ngos/UNPO_Ukraine108.pdf

A few highlights:

The Mejlis (parliament) of the Crimean Tatar People is the supreme executive body underpinned by a
network of district and local “mejlises”, which are formed in every settlement where the Crimean
Tatars live. The Mejlis are elected for 5 years through nationwide voting based on a mixed electoral
system. The Government of Ukraine does not recognize these traditional institutions of the Crimean
Tatars. Crimean Tatars face racism and xenophobia in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian State is neither communicating with nor acknowledging the wishes of the Crimean
Tatars. For instance the Mejlis has requested that the Crimean Presidential Council of the Crimean
Tatar People should be elected instead of appointed and this request was ignored.

In 2012, it was reported that Crimean Tatars faced violence from neo-Nazi groups. Especially in
the area of Crimea, racially motivated violence against the Crimean Tatars has been on the rise. Neo-Nazi
groups in this area have committed acts of violence against the Crimean Tatars as well as destroying
property and cemeteries. For the last ten years, there have been incidents of vandalism of Muslim cemeteries and Crimean Tatar historical and cultural sites.

[radon1]

I'm a humanist, I'm people-centric, and democratic to the core

You are none of it. You are vulture, bloodsucker and friggin lier, lying even to yourself.

Guardian of democracy?

Are you sleeping well?

Not a single word about people atrociously tortured and burned in Odessa's massacre with unbelievable cruelty, designed and possibly participated in by US agencies and citizens.

Not a single word about people being threatened, assassinated and kidnapped with a support and encouragement from the US agencies and citizens.

Not a single word about crimes and murder perpetrated by the underhuman puppets established by the US in Kiev.

Not a single word about the farce that is for some reason called "presidential elections" in Ukraine, where the candidates are being beaten, shot at, threatened and drop their bids en masse. Not a single word about the circus called "Ukrainian parliament" where a US sectarian goblin at the helm and his subgoblins bully and silence down the MPs, and routinely practice massive fake voting.

All glaring, burning, screaming and outrageous ridicule over democracy and human rights. But never noticed. Instead, we get here fabricated lies about "the situation in Crimea".

Russia compensated the loss of deposits that were plainly stolen by PrivatBank from the Crimean depositors, and you, friggin lier, present this as though this is Russia's fault! Unbelievable! PrivatBank's owner, Kolomoisky, an US-protected oligarch launching sickish manhunts awarding millions of US dollars for murdering activists, presenting it as a hunt of Jews (!) over a Russian - as sick as it can get... no words left.

Why wouldn't you get the heck away from our countries far far away, the farther the better, and never ever come back? Why wouldn't you instead address the issues of homelessness in the US or cessation of Texas?

This is a website of energy-related issues, why do you use it to incessantly spew your paranoid russophobia? Why wouldn't you address your paranoia in a private visit to the doctor instead of doing it publicly here?

You have no idea about democracy. Looking at you, and rephrasing Marx a bit one would say that there is no crime or lie in the world that a US moocher would not support in order to keep up with the Joneses.

[Pops]

Enough of the ad homs.

[Sixstrings]

Repharse..

This is getting too heated, I'll drop it.

Russia compensated the loss of deposits that were plainly stolen by PrivatBank from the Crimean depositors, and you, friggin lier, present this as though this is Russia's fault! Unbelievable! PrivatBank's owner, Kolomoisky, an US-protected oligarch launching sickish manhunts awarding millions of US dollars for murdering activists, presenting it as a hunt of Jews (!) over a Russian - as sick as it can get... no words left.

Can you link anything, a news article or something, as a source for that? If it is just in Russian language then fair enough. If nothing else, you could prove that English language sources don't report on what you're saying.

I'm way out in the weeds here, I'm not going to have a heated argument about Russian central banking in Crimea.

But I'm interested in financial news. This is interesting to me, how did the banks fail, why did they fail (the articles I read said they were closed by the Russian authorities not that they failed, if you have a link showing something different then you could give a counterpoint to that).

Where did the money go, how do the people get their money back, and does Russia just have to make good on everyone's bank accounts? That would be a lot of money.

I'm dropping this because it's getting to heated.

I just thought it was fair to post about these articles I saw about Crimea, because I remembered that all of you guys talked a lot about how hard the transition to the EU would be. So it's something I'm curious about, is transition to Russia just as difficult.

You can't be able to say what you want to say, but others can't. But I'm dropping it anyway.

[Sixstrings]

I am going to drop this, but let me give an example of the kinds of things I see in news:

Six More Ukrainian Banks Expelled from Crimea

The regulator said that the 6 banks had "failed to meet their obligations to creditors," the same reason cited in late April when the Central Bank banned four other Ukrainian banks

The latest decision was "exclusively dictated by the task of protecting the interests of depositors and clients, whose lawful rights had been violated, among other reasons, by these banks' termination of operations ... as well as the low prospects of them renewing their activity," the statement said.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/six-more-ukrainian-banks-expelled-from-crimea/500011.html

First of all, if Radon wants to get angry with someone, how about the Moscow Times. They are right in Moscow. Apparently it's an expat newspaper that has some Russian readership as well. But get angry at them if you got to get angry at someone.

Ok reading this stuff again and digesting it, I can see the whole story isn't really clear here. Does anyone have more info they could just link?

I read other articles that just say the banks lost their licenses to operate.

So what is the real story here, does anyone know?
Did all the Ukrainian banks close, or did some stay open, and did Russia allow any Ukrainian banks to stay?
Did the banks close anyway, because it will be impossible to operate in Crimea, or did they want to stay and keep operating?

I don't see any news sources that answers those questions.

And again, I'm not going to have a forum WWIII over central banking in Crimea, but there is some TRUTH at the bottom of all this, I just don't know what it is -- somebody is at fault here, for the banks closing, and it's an interesting question as to whether folks will get all their money back.

(this is all very complicated, for starters it's a situation of annexing place and changing the *currency*, one nation's currency to another. With the banking issues that go along with that, it sounds like a massive task there.

I don't know enough about all this to be talking about it, like for example, is Crimea using dual currency for a while and how are they going to handle that switch to the ruble.)

[ROCKMAN]

Six - I haven't tried to keep up with it because I can't judge the reliability of any of the sources. But if the Ukrainian banks are run like ours much of the deposits are just represented by some digits in a computer. And whoever ever controls the computer controls the money. That seems to be the crucial question: who has the computer and what laws are controlling (or not) them?

[AgentR11]

So what is the real story here, does anyone know?
Did all the Ukrainian banks close, or did some stay open, and did Russia allow any Ukrainian banks to stay?
Did the banks close anyway, because it will be impossible to operate in Crimea, or did they want to stay and keep operating?

You keep saying you're stopping, but you don't. I suspect you say you're stopping, hoping that you get to have the last word on a subject. A last word with nothing of substance.

The answers to your questions will be knowable... NEXT YEAR.. maybe.

I suspect all Ukrainian banks will be evicted from Russia within a few years.

somebody is at fault here, for the banks closing, and it's an interesting question as to whether folks will get all their money back.

Fault?? What does fault have to do with it. It will matter ZILCH. As to whether folks will get *ALL* their money back. Not a chance in...... I can't imagine you would think otherwise.

I don't know enough about all this to be talking about it, like for example, is Crimea using dual currency for a while and how are they going to handle that switch to the ruble.)

Taxes to be paid in ruble, wages to be paid in ruble, thats how its fixed. It'll be terribly painful for a year or few. But.. the Ukraine currency itself has good odds at this point in time of going completely belly-up anyway; so its not like the pain was avoidable; just rather, whether the pain was experienced under the rule of Nazi's in Kiev or authoritarians in Moscow.

[Sixstrings]

You keep saying you're stopping, but you don't. I suspect you say you're stopping, hoping that you get to have the last word on a subject. A last word with nothing of substance.

Well this is like the climate change debate. I used to stay out of that because people just get too upset, it gets too hot. I don't post here to upset people.

So I'm inclined to drop it, if talking about it upsets people.

But why should I have to? I think I can tone it down, and be more careful. But it seems to me a lot of the Russia side just wants everyone to not say anything back to them, you know? That's what it seems like.

Right now Russia is interesting, in the world. Huffingtonpost, every newspaper in the US, every newspaper in the world, every news site, has articles on Ukraine and Crimea and Russia and Putin.

When it's no longer news, then it won't be news. It's up to the mods on this forum to decide if Crimea is off topic for peakoil.com.

Fault?? What does fault have to do with it. It will matter ZILCH. As to whether folks will get *ALL* their money back. Not a chance in...... I can't imagine you would think otherwise.

The economic part of Crimea's transition to Russia is interesting because of the narrative, put forth on this forum so many times in the Ukraine threads, that it would be massive disruption and IMF hardship for Ukraine to go Western.

I'm just pointing out there may be some economic transition hardship going to the Russian bloc, too.

[Sixstrings]

Despite the ban on gatherings, Tatars in Crimea had their annual commemoration anyway, at a mosque, with Russian military helicopters circling overhead.

The Tatars say some of their homes were raided by the FSB on "terrorism" suspicions.

They say they want to be an autonomous region within Russia, and they're also asking for representation in the new Crimean government.

These are just news developments about Crimea, it matters regardless of your opinion or what side you are on or whatever, it is just news don't get upset with me.

My opinion is that ethnic Russians and Tatars BOTH matter, and there should of course be democracy where they both have the same vote.

Ukraine: Crimea's Tatars mark 70th anniversary of Soviet-era deportations
Group defy ban on mass gatherings with rally outside mosque on outskirts of Simferopol to remember 1944 deportations

Defying a ban by their new Russian-backed rulers, thousands of Crimean Tatars gathered at a mosque on Sunday to commemorate the day 70 years ago that the mass deportation of their families began under the orders of the Soviet leader Josef Stalin.

Crimea's Muslim Tatars are among the most vociferous opponents of Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine and have condemned as "inhuman" the temporary ban on mass gatherings, which was issued days before the symbolic date in the minority group's history.

Waving blue and yellow flags and chanting slogans, they rallied outside the mosque on the outskirts of the capital, Simferopol, as Russian military helicopters circled overhead.

The 1944 Soviet-era deportation of 200,000 Tatars to Siberia and central Asia killed many and is a reason for Tatars' deep mistrust of the Russian authorities. Many still associate Moscow's rule with oppression, exile and suffering.

"People, homeland, Crimea!" the crowd chanted. One banner read: "Eternal remembrance for the victims of genocide – the Crimean Tatars."

Tatar community leaders including the head of the Mejlis assembly, Refat Chubarov, and Crimea's chief mufti made an appeal to the crowd for unity.

"We didn't think we'd be marking the anniversary under these circumstances," Chubarov said. "I don't have a solution to our problems, but I know that we will only be respected if we are united."

Mufti Emirali Ablaev led prayers for the deceased ancestors of those present and called for dialogue with the region's new leadership.

Looking up at the helicopters, Ablaev told the crowd: "They are watching us, they are afraid of us."

...

On Sunday afternoon, the central square was fenced off and guarded by ranks of Russian riot police and pro-Russia "self-defence" units standing alongside armoured personnel carriers.

Adding to tensions, Mejlis leaders say officers from Russia's Federal Security Service raided the homes of several Tatars earlier in the week, citing suspicions of "terrorist activity".
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/18/ukraine-crimea-tatars-70-anniversary-deportations

[radon1]

Can you link anything,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v4VWNOSiYY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiHZmmIBHuE

[radon1]

Despite the ban on gatherings,

Sick lies again. Wonder why the website is used for attempts at inflammation of inter-ethnical tensions in other countries (however low the potential is).

Had a message for you a bit earlier, repeat it in capitals for clearer view:

GET THE HECK AWAY FROM OUR COUNTRIES, PATHETIC BLOODSUCKER, AND NEVER EVER COME BACK.

[Sixstrings]

edit: Rephrase..

All I did was post an article, I think it's in the Guardian newspaper, about the Tatars.

Far as I know there is nothing unfactual about it.

I believe in FREE SPEECH.

And nobody's free speech getting bullied away or shut down or they get their kneecaps busted or journalists murdered for it or in prison over it.

That's my values. That's what I believe in. I'll leave it at that.

And that tatar article doesn't inflame anyone, it's a news article about these people. Tatars are people too. They don't seem like extremist muslims, they seem to be quiet and peaceful and far as I know they haven't caused any problems and ethnic Russians and tatars HAD BEEN GETTING ALONG FINE before all of this.

This stuff is getting toxic, I'm getting called a liar when I just quote the Guardian newspaper, *and all these articles mention that there is a ban in Crimea on public gatherings / rallies / demonstrations / whatever you want to call it -- so how am I "lying."

[Sixstrings]

Can you link anything,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v4VWNOSiYY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiHZmmIBHuE

If you will stop calling me bloodsucker, and saying threatening things, then I'll do objective research on that RT report.

Seriously, cut it out.

The pro Russia side on this forum has been hamming it up all through this thing, but I start to see articles about Crimea now and oh nooooooo we can't talk about that now can we? Cut it out. Be polite.

I am someone on a forum watching this thing from start to finish, same as you. My tax dollars are going into Ukraine, same as yours are. I have a right to have an interest in it and you can't tell me I don't and you don't have a right to sound threatening.

"You'd better mind your own business" and all of that you've said before, it's bullying, Radon we don't have that kind of talk on this forum. You need to know what the line is there, and if you are getting that angry then YOU are the one that needs to stop reading the news.

[Sixstrings]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v4VWNOSiYY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiHZmmIBHuE

Okay, I looked into Igor Kolomoisky. First of all, the "taped phone call" thing has been a recurring issue, over and over, coming out of Russian intelligence. Having said that, that's a pretty wild phone call there. What can one say -- Russia, and more so Ukraine -- it's like a darn movie. It's unreal.

I know Latin American politics gets this crazy too. I guess really everywhere is like this. Middle east. China to an extent. There's some value, you know, to getting to being that "normal country like Poland." Euro norms and standards. Get away from all of these things. That's the goal. That's what a lot of ordinary Ukrainians wanted, when they wanted the EU.

I'll tell you, if Putin would have allowed it and the US / EU were willing, an American general could have gone in there with NATO and really sorted the place out. Do things the right way. Peacekeeping to get stability in the streets, oversee real elections, put in place real reforms to get the generational corruption out of there.

But that couldn't / didn't happen, and Kiev is stuck, in the middle of a civil war and yes there's some bad apples in that Kiev group.

There's a lot of bad apples in Ukraine. It's a wild place -- what was it years ago, one of their presidents or candidates got radiation poisoned? Did an oligarch do it, or was it Russia? I don't know. But it's crazy stuff.

So anyhow, what has gone on with the Kiev gov is that, absent real solid support coming from the West, they're continuing the old system of oligarchs and the same old thing. They placed oligarchs into regional governorships.

So the latest news is that Putin appears to be backing off Ukraine entirely. And so now this oligarch, Igor Kolomoisky, has a free hand to do what he wants. It's a messy situation, the central Kiev gov isn't strong enough to handle things, so they put the oligarchs in charge of regions -- a bit like an ancient Roman proconsul.

Here's some more on Igor Kolomoisky:

The turmoil in Libya comes on top of the crisis in Ukraine, which has entered a new phase. The feeling is that Russian president Vladimir Putin is no longer considering an invasion, and has even decided to, by and large, stop destabilizing eastern Ukraine.

With the coast now clear, Ukrainian oligarchs Rinat Akhmetov and Igor Kolomoisky have taken up arms against the pro-Russian militias who had seized control of major cities. With Putin’s decision to ease up, the oligarchs’ intervention is an attempt to decide who will profit from Ukraine’s new political system.

As Quartz reported over the weekend, the participation of Akhmetov and Kolomoisky is a win for Kiev but also makes the shaky Ukrainian government dependent on their good will.
http://qz.com/210801/strongmen-in-libya-and-ukraine-are-spiking-global-oil-prices/

You'll agree with this Forbes article, Radon:

Why Everything You've Read About Ukraine Is Wrong
http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesleadershipforum/2014/05/19/why-everything-youve-read-about-ukraine-is-wrong/

Now I read that article, and there are things in there that I know he's got a pro-Russia bias. He's a slavic studies professor. He paints the division between east and west ukraine as more than it actually is. This author sounds Russian to me.

From all the reading I've done, my conclusion is that there are Ukrainian speakers in east Ukraine too (obviously, my point is that the east isn't all ethnic Russian). And that, even among the Russian speakers in the East, they had been identifying mostly as Ukrainian (it's been a long time since the USSR). And this is especially true of younger Russian speakers.

This explains the polls that show even in the East, not even a majority of Russian speakers are for annexation or allowing regions to secede.

That Odessa clash between pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine -- I don't see anything that attributes that to the government or an oligarch. If I'm wrong, if I'm missing something, then post that.

But anyhow.. Ukraine is a mess.. the oligarchs are in charge.. the people don't like it and have always wanted an end to it.

You and me can differ on our opinions. I think if Ukraine gets on a EU track, then they will improve, because the oligarchial corruption they have isn't even compatible with the EU. The EU would rub off on them, eventually. They'd become like Poland, and that's not a bad thing at all.

[Sixstrings]

This thread is off topic from Crimea.

I'm confused by the video, trying to figure it out, is it Igor on the tape.

This thing is like a soap opera.

But far as I can piece it together, sounds like the gov has placed oligarchs in charge of the regions. The oligarchs are expected to hire mercs and handle the regions and restore order, presumably because the central gov is too weak.

The tape makes it sound like the oligarch meant to have a group of thugs break up a separatist camp and that it went too far, but I don't understand that tape if it's the oligarch talking or someone else.

The real answer.. that Putin would not allow.. is that there needed to be (and needs to be) UN peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. Or just draw a darn line at Crimea and get NATO and some sanity into north Ukraine and Russia can have Crimea.

Or, that Kiev gov needed more help -- a professional army, their own troops, so they don't have to use oligarchs.

This region is overall toughguy. That goes for Russia too. Gangster oligarchs and toughguys, and mafias, and all of that.

Let's see what happens with the elections (aren't governors elected too?), let's see what happens now that Putin is backing off and is going to let the elections go forward.

And another thing.. Putin's been messing around in Ukraine and stoking for many years now, the Russia side is not the "good guy." Putin himself is an oligarch. Russia is full of oligarchs and tough guys. What we see in Ukraine is how business gets done over there, let's get real.

A move toward the EU is about *changing* that. If Putin would leave northern Ukraine alone, then the US and EU could fix this place.

[AgentR11]

But why should I have to? I think I can tone it down, and be more careful. But it seems to me a lot of the Russia side just wants everyone to not say anything back to them, you know? That's what it seems like.

I think a lot of Chinese and Russian individual partisans have trouble with seeing critique as a slam or attempt to invalidate the requirements of their national interests. Westerners are probably more used to the idea, that yes, we need oil, and we're completely willing to kill a few million people to get it, and whatever the activists and protestors want to say about it is fine, as long as they don't physically break anything important while protesting. Then after protesting, they'll hop in their FF powered vehicles and dine on food that would be impossible without those acquired fuel resources.

The Russian advocates on the web take criticism as if it were an attack on their ability to pursue their national interest requirements. Putin and the oligarchs understand of course, but Bob the Ruskie doesn't. Putin understands that 10 million people could show up at a protest and it would do absolutely nothing to change Russia's ownership of the Crimea.

When it's no longer news, then it won't be news. It's up to the mods on this forum to decide if Crimea is off topic for peakoil.com.

Considering the quantity of deep oil reserves in the Black Sea that are developable only with high market prices; its clearly not going to be off topic, even if you'd prefer to get the last dig in before a thread is closed. The fate of the EEZ lines in the black sea could very well play a controlling role in the shape of oil distribution when it matters most.

Resource wars were one of the big predictions of peak oil. Well. Here we are.

[Sixstrings]

I think a lot of Chinese and Russian individual partisans have trouble with seeing critique as a slam or attempt to invalidate the requirements of their national interests. Westerners are probably more used to the idea..

edit: rant deleted

I'll just say.. that as Americans we are *very used* to hearing criticism, vehement criticism, of everything our government does.

So it is just interesting that here you have these rising powers -- China and Russia -- that have criticized us all these many years -- yet they don't want to hear any criticism, now that they are doing things.

I just find that interesting. But I'm letting this stuff go now, before I get my kneecaps busted or something.