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Cobb: Fake Abundance

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Cobb: Fake Abundance

Unread postby Pops » Sun 22 Jul 2012, 13:06:18

Cobb takes another swipe at Magueri, give it a read:
Fake Abundance

What you won't find there or in current media accounts are his consistently failed predictions about rising supply in the last decade, supply that was supposed to result in a flood of oil. Here's one gem from 2006 in a piece he authored for Forbes Magazine: "A plausible forecast is that by the end of the decade the daily demand for oil will have expanded by 7 to 8 million barrels. If global production continues at present rates, it could grow by 12 to 15 million barrels per day in that period. In other words, there is more than enough oil in the ground." Maugeri's contention was that high prices would result in a supply response that would bring back the good old days of abundance. Of course, no one covering his recent policy brief bothers to mention that his 2006 prediction turned out to be wrong, and not by just a little. World oil production has been flat since 2005. His vaunted supply response never materialized.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Cobb: Fake Abundance

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Sun 22 Jul 2012, 15:16:07

I don't buy it. Gas prices are down, Costco was full. Olive Garden was packed on a Tuesday night. Everything seems ok.
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Re: Cobb: Fake Abundance

Unread postby diemos » Sun 22 Jul 2012, 18:24:53

Serial_Worrier wrote:I don't buy it. Gas prices are down, Costco was full. Olive Garden was packed on a Tuesday night. Everything seems ok.


Yup. Life is unchanged for those who are still in the lifeboat. As for those who got tossed out? Well, out of sight, out of mind.
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Re: Cobb: Fake Abundance

Unread postby ohanian » Mon 23 Jul 2012, 10:04:28

In America, if you have money you are okay.
If you have lots of money then you are my friend.
If you have billions of money then everyone is your friend.
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Re: Cobb: Fake Abundance

Unread postby peripato » Tue 24 Jul 2012, 02:21:46

Fake Abundance also has another definition; Strength through Exhaustion...in other words, "The more rapidly we consume our resources, the more self-sufficient we will be." cit. David Brower. Yes, most people actually think like this.
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Re: Cobb: Fake Abundance

Unread postby efarmer » Wed 25 Jul 2012, 23:11:59

Cultural abundance can be pushed around to spur growth and subsidize things and it is the credit and mortgage and loan arrangement that fostered American wealth gathering and growth traditionally. When we started on the path in 1998 to back off regulating or looking at the investment banks and rating agencies and gamed the system to provide hallucinated wealth at the lowest consumption level and also export American financial manure in Gold Foil pouches with Agency Ratings at AAA based on bogus insurance and financial tranched Spam offerings, we became global pirates. This does not get fixed soon or easily.

Hallucinated abundance is only a comfort while the vision of conucopia lasts.
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Re: Cobb: Fake Abundance

Unread postby peripato » Thu 26 Jul 2012, 21:04:03

efarmer wrote:Cultural abundance can be pushed around to spur growth and subsidize things and it is the credit and mortgage and loan arrangement that fostered American wealth gathering and growth traditionally. When we started on the path in 1998 to back off regulating or looking at the investment banks and rating agencies and gamed the system to provide hallucinated wealth at the lowest consumption level and also export American financial manure in Gold Foil pouches with Agency Ratings at AAA based on bogus insurance and financial tranched Spam offerings, we became global pirates. This does not get fixed soon or easily.

Hallucinated abundance is only a comfort while the vision of conucopia lasts.

Looks like we've come to the end of that road.
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A New, Unanticipated Oil World

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 18:19:34


A letter in a November 1999 edition of the Oil & Gas Journal, “Running Out of Oil,” written by an industry consultant, stated 11 facts and predictions. Far from unusual, his facts were generally correct and his prognostications mainstream. U.S. oil production was in decline in the 1990s. Oil imports were rising. This led George W. Bush to declare in his 2006 State of the Union Address: “America is addicted to oil.” Until around 2010, in fact, “Peak Oil” was in vogue both inside and outside the industry. Pro-oil voices urged greater public-land access and less regulation to increase otherwise declining production; anti-oil voices favored government subsidies and mandates to fashion a post-petroleum future. The aforementioned letter (by Jeffrey Hughes, President and founder of HTK Consultants) offered these facts and predictions circa 1999: World oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s. World oil production


A New, Unanticipated Oil World
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Re: Cobb: Fake Abundance

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 18:22:31

I was struck by the irony...Mr Kobb, he of recent authorship of the "ASPO-USA is closing down because it has become obvious we didn't know anything about resource economics in general or oil specifically and don't want to be laughed at any more", talking about the fake abundance that was real.

Sorry Kurt. Better luck next advertising campaign on behalf of the resource ignorant.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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