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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 4

Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby GHung » Mon 23 Feb 2015, 23:13:14

Posted: Monday, February 23, 2015 8:15 pm

By Justin Wingerter The Topeka Capital-Journal

MANHATTAN – A study of wheat yields by 53 researchers on six continents, including a Kansas State University professor, has found that the effects of climate change on Kansas’ top crop will be far more disastrous, and begin much sooner, than previously thought.

Each time the average global temperature increases by one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), global wheat grain production is reduced by about 6 percent, according to the study, published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change.

According to the researchers, the 6 percent decline would equate to 42 megatons, or 42 million tons, of wheat each time the global temperature rises by a single degree Celsius.

“To put this in perspective, the amount is equal to a quarter of global wheat trade, which reached 147 (megatons) in 2013,” the researchers wrote. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported last September that the Earth had warmed 0.85 degrees Celsius between 1880 and 2012.

Among the 53 researchers was Dr. Vara Prasad, a professor of crop ecophysiology at Kansas State.

“The projected effect of climate change on wheat is more than what has been forecast,” Prasad said. “That’s challenging because the world will have to at least double our food supply in the next 30 years if we’re going to feed 9.6 billion people.”

The study, impressive in its scope, calculated grain-yield trends for the 30-year period from 1981 to 2010 at 30 wheat production centers around the world. Yields at six North American centers were calculated, including Kansas State’s research facility in Manhattan, along with two in South America, two in Africa, two in Australia and 18 across Europe and Asia.

At 20 of the 30 sites studied, wheat yields declined between 1981 and 2010, a fact that researchers attribute to a similar rise in temperatures at the sites. A simulated increase of 2 degrees Celsius would decrease wheat yields at all sites by as much as 28 percent, according to the study, and by more than half if the temperature is increased by 4 degrees Celsius.

“The increase in year-to-year yield variability is critical economically, as it could decrease some regional – and hence global – stability in wheat grain supply, amplifying market and price fluctuations,” the researchers wrote.

When temperatures are increased, Prasad explained, the growing period is shortened and fertilization is harmed, leading to lower grain numbers.

More: http://www.hutchnews.com/news/local_sta ... 264cf.html


Got flour? But wait! They'll fix it:

“There are several adaptation options to counter the adverse effects of climate change on global wheat production – and for some regions, this will be critical,” the researchers wrote.

One such option is being explored at the Wheat Genetics Resource Center on the Kansas State campus. Two of Prasad’s colleagues – Harold Trick, a professor, and Allan Fritz, a wheat breeder – are adding genetic material from rice to wheat, creating a transgenic crop better suited to survive hotter temperatures.


As always, technology to the rescue.
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby sparky » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 02:14:56

.
Sound like rubbish , Western Australia , South Australia , Inland New South Wales , Khasakstan , Hindustan and inland China are big producers and exporters of Wheat and the summer temperatures are positively horrendous ,
Wheat only need a bit of soil moisture at germinating time , NO FROST , a shower or two for growth and hardly any soil ,
all the world dry area are growing this most hardy of crops , winter freezing is not a problem either
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 02:18:15

Did they just say rice is the answer to hotter dryer climates? Wheat grows best with 12" rain per year. Rice needs a paddy.

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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 05:01:16

pstarr wrote:Did they just say rice is the answer to hotter dryer climates? Wheat grows best with 12" rain per year. Rice needs a paddy.


Only Lowland rice needs to be in a paddy, Upland rice needs a wet spring, but after that it grows just fine in a regular field.
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby Paulo1 » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 08:27:48

What's bad for Kansas is good for Sask, Alberta, and Manitoba grain growing areas as well as the BC Peace. This ain't Kanasas, anymore, Dorothy. Some step down and some will step up.
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby Pops » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 08:46:06

I looked at the USDA page and found that in the US Wheat acreage is down by a third from the 80's and even then almost a third of wheat acreage was in CRP - .gov paid farmers to not plant. We are still the largest exporter but our wheat exports are down by half since the '80s - 48 million metric tons in '81 to 23 million in 03.
There isn't much money in it compared to corn and beans, more countries are growing it, people in the US are turning anti-carb, and as usual, more and more wheat is grown to feed animals rather than humans.

The long-term projections point to smaller U.S. wheat planted area compared to recent years. The smaller area is a continuation of a long-term trend, as wheat’s profitability relative to other crops, particularly corn and soybeans, has declined.
The sharp decline in U.S. domestic per capita food use of wheat since 2000—arising from changing consumer preferences—appears to have ended, or at least, slowed. In the future, U.S. total wheat consumption is projected to grow at the same rate as the population.
Internationally, in addition to traditional global competitors (Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the European Union), Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine have emerged as new competitors, particularly in years when their production is high. The overall result in the projections is a smaller U.S. share of an expanding world wheat trade market.


None of which is to argue the OP, just for perspective.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wh ... 14-23.aspx
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/trade.aspx
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 09:48:03

Some perspective on what this news comes on top of:
the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated net farm income, which peaked at $129 billion in 2013, could slide by almost a third this year to $74 billion.
(By the way, shouldn't that say "by more than a third"? Are journalists really that bad at math, or am I missing something?)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/ ... EX20150223
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby GHung » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 10:52:33

Thursday, February 26, 2015 at 12NOON MST

"Agricultural Meteorology: Layer Upon Layer"

Brad Rippey
USDA
Office of the Chief Economist
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Washington, DC

http://www.cocorahs.org/Content.aspx?page=wxtalk

Agricultural Meteorology will be the focus of our next "WxTalk Webinar" on Thursday, February 26th “Agricultural Meteorology: Layer Upon Layer” will be presented by Brad Rippey and Mark Brusberg of the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, DC

Space is limited to the first 500 registrants, so register today! We will notify the first 500 who register of their acceptance to the Webinar. Those who aren't able to attend will be able to watch this episode on-line the following day.

Date: Thursday, February 26, 2015
Time: PLEASE NOTE THE TIME CHANGE FOR THIS WEBINAR — 2:00 PM Eastern, 1PM Central, 12Noon Mountain, 11:00 AM Pacific

"The field of agricultural meteorology may be best described as what it is not. Practitioners of this narrow subset of the meteorology spectrum are not professional forecasters, nor are they restricted to computer modeling or programming. Indeed, some agricultural meteorologists are skilled forecasters and programmers, but those roles are secondary to their expert analysis of the impact of weather on U.S. and global crop yield and production.

Increasingly, however, agricultural meteorologists are adept at layering meteorological and agricultural information in a geographic information system (GIS), and providing up-to-the-minute analysis of agricultural weather impacts as they relate to world agricultural supply and demand. Analysis that was once done by hand, bent over a light table, in hours or days, is now produced in minutes, layer by layer, in a GIS.

At USDA, a small group of five agricultural meteorologists provides weather intelligence for an economic team, which produces the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. In addition to a support role, the meteorology group releases its own set of products, including the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. And, with its expertise in impact analysis and geographic information systems, the USDA agricultural meteorology group has been instrumental in other roles, such as the development and production of the U.S. Drought Monitor.
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 11:04:27

Subjectivist wrote:
pstarr wrote:Did they just say rice is the answer to hotter dryer climates? Wheat grows best with 12" rain per year. Rice needs a paddy.


Only Lowland rice needs to be in a paddy, Upland rice needs a wet spring, but after that it grows just fine in a regular field.


Upland rice is grown in rainfed fields prepared and seeded when dry, much like wheat or maize. The ecosystem is extremely diverse, including fields that are level, gently rolling or steep, at altitudes up to 2,000 metres and with rainfall ranging from 1,000 to 4,500 mm annually.

That's 39" to 120" inches of rain. Buts that's okay, because the thing is actually a genetically engineered wheat/rice blend with little rubber booties and and watering can.
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 12:22:21

pstarr wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:
pstarr wrote:Did they just say rice is the answer to hotter dryer climates? Wheat grows best with 12" rain per year. Rice needs a paddy.


Only Lowland rice needs to be in a paddy, Upland rice needs a wet spring, but after that it grows just fine in a regular field.


Upland rice is grown in rainfed fields prepared and seeded when dry, much like wheat or maize. The ecosystem is extremely diverse, including fields that are level, gently rolling or steep, at altitudes up to 2,000 metres and with rainfall ranging from 1,000 to 4,500 mm annually.

That's 39" to 120" inches of rain. Buts that's okay, because the thing is actually a genetically engineered wheat/rice blend with little rubber booties and and watering can.


Interesting, based on http://www.netstate.com/states/tables/s ... verage.htm
27 of the 50 states have 39 or more inches of rain per year. Some like Hawaii have much more, 110 inches. On the other hand the desert South and West like Utah only gets 12 inches. The big Wheat states like Kansas (27 inches) and North Dakota (17 inches) would stink at growing Upland Rice without serious irrigation. Oh wait, they already do that to grow Wheat and the aquifer is shrinking pretty rapidly.

Personally I think the day is rapidly approaching where dryland farming will return to the 'wheat belt' simply because of aquifer depletion. Depending on how the climate ball bounces we may end up with an even wetter set of South East and North West states, or contrarily we could end up with so much rain in the Rocky Mountains that Lake Bonneville reforms and drowns most of Utah and Nevada under a great salt lake again.
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby Timo » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 12:28:54

Subjectivist wrote:
pstarr wrote:Did they just say rice is the answer to hotter dryer climates? Wheat grows best with 12" rain per year. Rice needs a paddy.


Only Lowland rice needs to be in a paddy, Upland rice needs a wet spring, but after that it grows just fine in a regular field.


How about Minnesota?
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 15:57:06

To heat and drought add soil erosion...

The failure of US farm policy? It's in the snirt

... Instead of encouraging wider use of soil conservation practices, current U.S. farm policy, which emphasizes production over conservation, promotes practices that increase soil erosion.

In the 1950s, the Soil Bank program paid farmers to take erodible land out of production to reduce surplus. Farmers were also compensated for implementing conservation measures. Soil Bank’s successor, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) began in the 1980s. While the program succeeded in removing much environmentally sensitive land from production, its funding has been slashed. The 2014 Farm Bill cut the acres that could be enrolled in the CRP from 32 million to 24 million. The reduction in funding and acreage pushes land out of conservation reserves as rising corn prices fuel the demand for more farmland. Federal crop insurance programs encourage planting every available acre.


DoD and Intellegence agencies are actively monitoring the situation...

Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis
...3 - Potentially Disruptive Climate Events 53
The Science of Climate Projection, 54
Abrupt Climate Change, 58
Single Extreme Events, 61
Clusters of Extreme Events, 68
Sequences of Events, 70
Global System Shocks, 71
Surprises Arising from Poorly Resolved Climate Dynamics, 72
Conclusions and Recommendations, 73

4 - How Climate Events Can Lead to Social and Political Stresses 75
Local and Distant Effects, 76
Exposures, 82
Susceptibility to Harm from Climate Events, 84
Coping, Response, and Recovery, 87
Conclusions and Recommendations, 91

5 - Climate Events and National Security Outcomes 97
Water, Food, and Health Security, 98
Humanitarian Crises, 111
Disruptive Migration, 112
Severe Political Instability and State Failure, 117
Interstate and Intrastate Conflict and Violence, 125
Conclusions and Recommendations, 134
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 17:44:33

Timo wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:
pstarr wrote:Did they just say rice is the answer to hotter dryer climates? Wheat grows best with 12" rain per year. Rice needs a paddy.


Only Lowland rice needs to be in a paddy, Upland rice needs a wet spring, but after that it grows just fine in a regular field.


How about Minnesota?


Lots of lakes but not a lot of rain, only about 24 inches a year depending on which source you trust.
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby dissident » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 17:55:09

This study has a flaw. It is determining the sensitivity based on past warming. Nothing says that this 6% per 1 C is not going to increase as the warming progresses. In other words, the sensitivity is likely nonlinear. I find it dubious that a 2 C global warming will only hit 12% of the crop. It is much more plausible that this is 6% per 1 C of local warming. A local summer long temperature anomaly in middle latitudes could run up to 10 C with a 2 C global warming, in which case 60% of the local wheat crop would be lost. Even this is unreasonably rosy. A 10 C anomaly would destroy the crop completely.

There are too many of these "studies" polluting the media information space. They are all dilute "we will adapt" nonsense.
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Re: Study: Effects of climate change on wheat will be dire

Unread postby Synapsid » Tue 24 Feb 2015, 18:20:33

Timo,

If you're thinking about the wild rice harvested in Minnesota, and elsewhere, that's not rice. It's a different plant altogether--a different genus.
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Report: Extreme weather risks food shortages, civil unrest

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 14 Aug 2015, 12:21:14

Extreme weather poses risk of more food shortages, civil unrest - UK/US report

Global food shortages will become three times more likely as a result of climate change and the international community needs to be ready to respond to price shocks to prevent civil unrest, a joint U.S.-British taskforce warned on Friday.

Rather than being a once-a-century event, severe production shocks, including food shortages, price spikes and market volatility, are likely to occur every 30 years by 2040, said the Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience.
From 2070 onward, they estimate that severe shocks, which could see global production drop by 10%, could be happening in seven out of ten years.

With the world's population set to rise to 9 billion by 2050 from 7.3 billion today, food production will need to increase by more than 60 percent and climate-linked market disruptions could lead to civil unrest, the report said.

"The climate is changing and weather records are being broken all the time," said David King, the UK foreign minister's Special Representative for Climate Change, in the report.

"The risks of an event are growing, and it could be unprecedented in scale and extent."

Global warming increases 'food shocks' threat

The authors argue that an over reliance on global trade may make these production shocks worse.

Some of the major risks include a rapid rise in oil prices fuelling food costs, reduced export capacity in Brazil, the United States or the Black Sea region due to infrastructure weakness, and the possible depreciation of the U.S. dollar causing prices for dollar-listed commodities to spike.

Global food production is likely to be most impacted by extreme weather events in North and South America and Asia which produce most of the world's four major crops - maize, soybean, wheat and rice.

"In fragile political contexts where household food insecurity is high, civil unrest might spill over into violence or conflict," the report said.

"The Middle East and North Africa region is of particular systemic concern, given its exposure to international price volatility and risk of instability, its vulnerability to import disruption and the potential for interruption of energy exports."


UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience Report pdf
Sec. 5. How would a plausible worst case scenario impact on societies, economies and the environment?

elsewhere ...

The Era of Man: Environmental Security on a Changing Planet

Energy and Electricity
Climate Change Blowback: The Threats to Energy Security
pp. 61-72 | DOI: 10.1353/sais.2015.0008
Michael T. Klare

Migration and Resettlement
Climate Change, Migration, and the Demand for Greater Resources: Challenges and Responses
pp. 99-108 | DOI: 10.1353/sais.2015.0016
Michael Werz, Max Hoffman
Climate change will increasingly threaten humanity’s shared interests and collective security across the globe, but particularly in the least developed countries. Faced with deteriorating conditions, humans have long turned to migration—an ancient adaptive mechanism to which humans could increasingly turn in the face of a changing climate. Cumulative effects of climate change and associated migration have serious implications for stability in nations lacking sufficient financial and human resources or good governance to adequately respond to them. Although there is a need for greater understanding of the causes of migration as well as its resulting economic and political instability, a growing body of evidence already links climate change, migration, and conflict in ways that could undermine governments and stability in key regions. Mitigating and adapting to the overlapping effects of climate change, migration, and conflict demands mobilization of resources by the international community on a scale normally reserved for issues of war and peace.

Climate-Induced Resettlement: Environmental Change and the Planned Relocation of Communities
pp. 109-117 | DOI: 10.1353/sais.2015.0001
Elizabeth Ferris
... it is presently unclear whether the term “relocation” applies only to the physical movement of people or also includes “resettlement” in the form of assistance to secure housing, restore livelihoods, and ensure access to services. Are evacuations in the aftermath of disasters a form of relocation?


Migrants locked in stadium on Kos for nearly 24 hours
Up to 2,500 mostly Syrian and Afghan refugees held in stadium on Greek island as police use sonic explosion to maintain order


Kos migrants: Chaos amid Greek registration attempt

Migrants Penned Inside Sports Stadium On Greek Island Of Kos
In Greece, extra police have been called in to cope with a surge of migrants who've landed on the island of Kos just a few miles from Turkey. It's a chaotic scene. Many of the migrants are being held at a sports stadium where they've been locked inside with little food or water.
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Re: Report: Extreme weather risks food shortages, civil unre

Unread postby GHung » Fri 14 Aug 2015, 13:26:35

Nice collection of doom-saying, Vox. I started to post the BBC article this AM, but got a headache thinking about it, and contemplating a world where the vast majority of humans are totally removed from food production, and utterly reliant upon highly complex industrial food systems; their primary foods often sourced continents away, those folks often in areas that couldn't come close to supporting the nutritional needs of even a fraction of their populations. So much for the green revolution; so many predicaments and liabilities born of dreams of feeding the masses. So few who can even harbour hopes of feeding themselves. Starvation on a massive scale seems baked in with all of our other failures.

Me? I'm deep into micro-managing my food production, exploring ways to extend our local growing seasons, while using primarily local inputs to maximise production and variety. Going great so far. Rather than planting our usual big garden this spring and hoping for good growing conditions, I levelled our big garden and spent the late spring building a simple structure capable of improving both quantity and quality of a larger variety of food stuffs. When reduced to its fundamentals, food production is essentially an input/output system dependent on climate, pest, and disease control for consistent production. Climate change caused me to rethink the way I was growing stuff, and I'm now convinced that I can grow more with fewer inputs and less water,, and a much lower failure risk than when I was growing a conventional, mostly organic, outdoor garden. It's a fusion of modern techniques and fundamental (ancient) inputs, now commonly referred to as "organic".

Not sure what most of the rest of the world is going to do besides trying to deal with one food crisis after another. It's overshoot, plain and simple. Overshoot is a global problem best addressed with very local responses.

Got a garden?
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Re: Report: Extreme weather risks food shortages, civil unre

Unread postby GASMON » Fri 14 Aug 2015, 14:07:29

Very worrying all this, for everyone.

I fear also those who try to make themselves independent like GHung above will have there "assets" taken over by the state sometime. This Jade Helm thing over in the US seems to be a big practice event for the future events outlined above.

There are nigh on a billion people in Africa, Middle East who want out and are headed north. Similar South American countries to USA though not as bad (I think).

Time for the United Nations to really unite and go into these countries big style (Iraq, Syria etc) and sort them out (impossible given the ethnic / religious divides) OR completely close all borders.

Not a rosy future for 99.999 % of us.

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Re: Report: Extreme weather risks food shortages, civil unre

Unread postby GHung » Fri 14 Aug 2015, 14:55:08

Gosh, Gas, the state gave me the grant for the greenhouse in the first place. Seems they want more of us staying put and growing food. If it's arable land they want, they better get the farmers on board to take care of the 'arable' part, or maybe they'll send their lawyers to dig compost, eh? Other than that, I have few assets worth being seized, as per my Archdruidesque voluntary poverty plan. If it's solar panels they want, thousands of those out along the main highway; newer and bigger. Canning jars aren't much good without stuff to can, and they can't commandeer my mixed bag of skills without some form of coercion, something their own military spent big bucks to determine I'm highly resistant to. They can have the TV.

As for the food I grow, I plan to share/sell/trade and barter any surplus I may produce; matters little to me. Anyway, methinks most small-scale farmers with relatively tiny holdings occupy a more secure position than your local real estate broker who drives an Escalade, along with the local moonshiners and herbalists.

Back to the cucumbers. They need the love...
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Re: Report: Extreme weather risks food shortages, civil unre

Unread postby Cog » Fri 14 Aug 2015, 15:27:38

The corn harvest in the Midwest should be magnificent this year. Lot of rain in the spring and early summer. The stuff is 10-12 feet tall. Perhaps doom will be delayed another year or so.
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