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Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 02 Jan 2014, 15:25:15

This jet stream yoyo effect is driving me crazy, we had a foot of snow the second week of december, then we got 3 inches of rain that melted it all before Christmas. For Christmas we had cold and windy with just a trace of snow, then New Years Eve we got this snowfall starting. I just finished shoveling off my driveway for the second time in six hours, the wind is howling around he house and the powder snow keeps drifting over the roads like crazy.

Of course I saw a weather forecast for 40F temp for a day or two next week in the long term forecast.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 2

Unread postby americandream » Thu 02 Jan 2014, 16:55:08

I once read somewhere that nature is consistent all across its various systems, from markets to climate, in fractal forms or volatility. Depending on just how quickly we destabilise the current eco-envelopes mix of gases, we could be in for a very wild ride as the planet seeks out a new climate zone.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 2

Unread postby nocar » Sat 04 Jan 2014, 05:09:08

While Americans shiver in blizzards, in Scandinavia we have a sort of heat wave. Constantly between +3C and +5C with unending clouds and light rain all through December to the present and no end in sight. We are used to being able to skate on the lakes or going cross-country skiing at this time of the year. No fun at all with global warming at this time of the year.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 04 Jan 2014, 05:35:21

nocar wrote:While Americans shiver in blizzards, in Scandinavia we have a sort of heat wave. Constantly between +3C and +5C with unending clouds and light rain all through December to the present and no end in sight. We are used to being able to skate on the lakes or going cross-country skiing at this time of the year. No fun at all with global warming at this time of the year.


I sympathize, our average high for this time of year is -2 C and we should hit that later today, yesterday our high was -11 C and our predicted highs for Monday and Tuesday are -18C and -20C. This bouncing up and down is enough to drive one to cabin fever.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 2

Unread postby americandream » Sat 04 Jan 2014, 05:36:22

nocar wrote:While Americans shiver in blizzards, in Scandinavia we have a sort of heat wave. Constantly between +3C and +5C with unending clouds and light rain all through December to the present and no end in sight. We are used to being able to skate on the lakes or going cross-country skiing at this time of the year. No fun at all with global warming at this time of the year.


Wow! Where abouts are you? Norway? I used to live in Orkney and noway was it ever that warm in December.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 04 Jan 2014, 10:00:11

We have -32 C (-25 F) predicted for tomorrow night. The governor canceled all public schools for the following day, and many other schools and businesses are going to be closed as well. I hope our old furnace doesn't choose tomorrow night to flake out on us!
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby nocar » Sat 04 Jan 2014, 15:52:17

Americandream, I am in the Stockholm area.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 04 Jan 2014, 16:09:08

I'm in Minnesota.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Synapsid » Sat 04 Jan 2014, 17:44:04

For all:

nocar, dohboi: Thanks. It really helps when people post about conditions "here" if they say where "here" is.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 00:35:16

Yeah, sorry to fall into that.

Many informed folks are talking about the collapse of the Hadley cell system. Specifically, the Ferrel Cell seems to be collapsing, which leads to a fusion of the midlatitude jetstream with the polar vortex. That's what seems to be behind this uber-cold snap happening in much of North America. (Note that many other areas, Finland, for example, is having particularly warm weather for this time of year there.)

Meanwhile, south of the equator:

Argentina’s worst heat wave in 107 years subsides
– Buenos Aires residents protest over ‘heatwave power cuts’


Main roads to the Argentine capital Buenos Aires have been blocked by people protesting against power cuts.

They are demanding government action on shortages that have been affecting many parts of the city.

Residents set fire to rubbish bags and tyres on the roads, causing long traffic jams as many left the capital for the New Year festivities.

The authorities are blaming the energy crisis on Buenos Aires' worst heatwave in decades, with temperatures over 38C.

Some neighbourhoods have been without power for two weeks, with a marked increase in the use of air conditioning...

Argentina's ageing power grid has been struggling to keep up with demand.

The government is supplying emergency help for those in need amidst the high temperatures.


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2014/01 ... years.html

And:


As Australia Burns, Anger at Prime Minister's Climate Policies Boils
Critics slam Tony Abbott for 'listening to people who are part of the tinfoil hat brigade'


http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2014/01/03-3
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby americandream » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 00:40:44

dohboi wrote:Yeah, sorry to fall into that.

Many informed folks are talking about the collapse of the Hadley cell system. Specifically, the Ferrel Cell seems to be collapsing, which leads to a fusion of the midlatitude jetstream with the polar vortex. That's what seems to be behind this uber-cold snap happening in much of North America. (Note that many other areas, Finland, for example, is having particularly warm weather for this time of year there.)


What is the long term prognosis with that? Are we looking at some sort of trigger event with these major interfaces in turmoil?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 00:54:39

I think this is another case of a change in basic planetary systems moving so fast that it is getting a bit ahead of the scientific community. Here's a recent dissertation that looked at some of the possibilities going forward:

Tando​n_columbia​_0054D_113​76.pdf
Title: What is Driving Changes in the Tropospheric Circulation? New Insights from Simplified Models

...idealized thermal forcings mimicking increases in stratospheric water vapor produce poleward expansion of the Hadley cells (HCs) and poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets. Quantitatively, the circulation responses are comparable to those produced by increased well-mixed greenhouse gases. This suggests that stratospheric water vapor may be a significant contribution to past and projected changes in the tropospheric circulation.

The second part of this thesis focuses on the response to idealized thermal forcings in the troposphere. It is found that zonally uniform warming confined to a narrow region around the equator produces contraction of the HCs and equatorward shifts of the midlatitude jets. Forcings with wider meridional extent produce the opposite effect: HC expansion and poleward shifts of the jets.

If the forcing is confined to the midlatitudes, the amount of HC expansion is more than three times that of a forcing of comparable amplitude that is spread over the tropics. This finding may be relevant to recently observed trends of amplified warming in the midlatitudes
...


There are (or were) three cells of circulation--the Hadley (from the equator to the midlatitudes), the Ferrel (over the midlatitudes), and the polar. Between the first two is what is generally known as the jet stream; between the Ferrel and the polar there is generally a polar vortex.

As the Hadley expands, something else necessarily shrinks. The closest candidate for shrinkage is the Ferrel Cell. Once that's gone, the jet stream and the polar vortex collapse into one system. This collapse is what some think we are in the process of seeing. It has been/will be a messy process, with the systems reasserting themselves on and off as they are pushed around. This will make it easy for some to say that it's not happening for a while, perhaps.

I think that, more and more, the whole system is going to be behaving in more an more chaotic ways that we will less and less be able to figure out.
Last edited by dohboi on Sun 05 Jan 2014, 01:02:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby americandream » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 00:58:10

Now this is making scarey sense. Basically, what we have are fairly entrenched climate reliant forces in the process of behaving outside the norm. No doubt the deniers will try and explain this away with timescale and data arguments but the fact that you have a dynamic system in the throes of the unstable is cause for much concern.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 01:04:48

Yep. What this would mean is that we are in the process of shifting fairly abruptly (within a few years, probably) into a radically different climate system, at least in the North Hemisphere. But who knows?
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 01:34:30

I was wondering if this was going to be another year where the American midwest was going to be colder than Baffin Bay.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 05:45:23

I date my awareness of the jet stream problem to March 2012 when Michigan and many surrounding states set all time high temperature both day and night for most of the month. Many days it seemed more like Louisiana than Michigan outside because the meander of the jet stream was pulling warm southern air from the deep south all the way up into Canada. Tomorrow and Tuesday we have the opposite, polar air is being pulled south out of the high Arctic all the way down into Louisiana setting all sorts of low record temperatures.

Neither situation is 'normal' both are a result of the same phenomenon. The arctic has warmed a great deal in the last decade, if you look at sea ice patterns drops began slowly way back in the record but have greatly accelerated since 2005. The same warming that is driving the sea ice loss is driving weakness in the jet streams, and as they become weaker they becomes slower and wander more randomly further north and south of their prior positions. We used to recognize two distinct jet streams, the sub tropical and polar. Now if you look at a flow pattern map sometimes they merge and separate as they circle the globe. This was always possible as an extreme event driving wild weather, but now it is becoming very frequent instead of very rare.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Lore » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 12:09:47

It remains however, counterintuitive to what most people expect. Which only confuses those who haven't bothered to study the problem and rely on their Fox News channel to give them their version of the truth of what's going on.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 13:50:38

Lore wrote:It remains however, counterintuitive to what most people expect. Which only confuses those who haven't bothered to study the problem and rely on their Fox News channel to give them their version of the truth of what's going on.


I think all the mainstream media sources are pretty lacking in the way hey report on th climate. None of hem give it more than a weak surface treatment, if I didn't have so much free time from being unemployed I wouldn't know anything real about the climate. Sure I knew CO2 is a greenhouse gas, bu I had no idea how much impact it has untl I read a lot of different sources about it. The hard part is separating the emotional hype from the physics facts. Going back to first principles like I learned to do in my college physics classes made a huge difference in how I understand the issue.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 Jan 2014, 18:45:50

Queensland boils as temperature climbs to a high of 45.4 degrees
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environ ... 309jl.html

David Jones, head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology, said 2013 record temperatures are a clear signal of climate change.

''If you took away the global warming trend, we probably could not have seen a year this high,'' Jones said late last month.

Karoly agrees. None of the simulations of nine major models generating 13,000 years of natural variability produced the record temperatures without an increase in greenhouse gases.

''In simulations for the period of 2006 to 2020 with natural variability and human influences, including increases in greenhouse gases, such records occur approximately once in every 10 years,'' Karoly said. ''Hence, this record could not occur due to natural variability alone and is only possible due to the combination of greenhouse climate change and natural variability on Australian average temperatures.''
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 11:29:37

I can tell you thins, the wind is howling around my home, snow is drifting like crazy and we already have 30 inches for this winter when the average would be 17. Oh year, the air temperature is about 9 degrees F and the wind chill is currently -22F.

If I had a couple of weeks to ease into it and acclimate I would be able to cope, however yesterday morning not 50 miles east of here it was pouring rain while we were being hammered with snow and come Friday we are predicted to be in the upper 30'sF with melt water and slush piling up all over and the possibility of more rain just like we had the week before Christmas.

Because of my former career I know that rapid temperature fluctuations like this kill a lot of people, especially among the elderly who just can't adapt fast enough. This is my very definition of climate chaos, it isn't as cold snap, it is an oscillating cycle with no predictability or stability.

I am starting to think if we fall into the one cells climate system it will actually be an improvement, because the weather will be in a fairly steady band again and we will be able to act accordingly.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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