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climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 12:26:29

I've been reconnecting with Guy McPherson videos lately as a soothing anecdote to this amorphous feeling of doom.

I could not understand how he believes that humanity "will" be wiped out by as soon as 2025. He has a level of certainty that I don't hear elsewhere, so I wonder about that.

I understand his line of reasoning a bit better now. He says Arctic sea ice extent disappears by 2019 or so and the rest just follows. Well, that is a disappearance just during the end-of-summer period in the northern hemisphere, so I don't know how catatrophic by itself that is and, so, maybe he's mistaken.

His model appears to be:

1. Arctic sea ice extent goes to zero.
2. The climate is changed drastically enough to induce worldwide starvation.
3. Industrial civilization is thereby disrupted enough to reduce particulate emissions.
4. Now the temperature quickly rises another 2-3 degree C (guessing).
5. Game over as the additional C warming totally prevents our farming regiment being reestablished.
6a. Nuclear reactors start failing due to lack of maintenance, armed conflict, etc.
6b. The methane burb maybe comes into play now hammering the nails into the coffin of humanity amd not just of civilization.
7. Acidification, chemical changes to the oceans finishes off remaining percentages of life on earth.

Between numbers 4 and 5, most of us Western 5 percent'ers die for certain and take with us civilization. It would be nice and 'just', may I add, if it just stops here, but it won't. At this point humanity is certainly doomed and maybe quickly at that given 6a and 6b. Nobody left to remember us or our legacy. Oh well, just another advanced civilization wiped out before someone's SETI can find it :)
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 12:43:59

From my reading J, I see no outrageous or non sensical aspects to what Guy is saying. Granted we are not climste experts but all this information exists on the Net and more important in our records of pre-history, ice core samples etc.
We know that an ice free Arctic will cause dramatic changes to the mechanisms of climate. So this sequence of events is neither unnatural nor unprecedented except of course for the nuclear meltdown. The only two questions remaining is how fast will all this happen and can we do anything to prevent it.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 13:19:23

jedrider wrote:I could not understand how he believes that humanity "will" be wiped out by as soon as 2025. He has a level of certainty that I don't hear elsewhere, so I wonder about that.


We better alert the suicide hotline in 2026 for Guy when humanity is still 8 billion strong.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 17:33:27

Ibon wrote:
jedrider wrote:I could not understand how he believes that humanity "will" be wiped out by as soon as 2025. He has a level of certainty that I don't hear elsewhere, so I wonder about that.


We better alert the suicide hotline in 2026 for Guy when humanity is still 8 billion strong.


Guy himself doesn't seem depressed or even unhappy at the idea of humanity going extinct, but one of Guy's side businesses is providing counseling services for other people who are suicidally depressed by his claim that humanity will soon go extinct due to global warming.

guymcpherson.com/2014/07/contemplating-suicide-please-click-here

Cheers!
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 17:47:17

Ibon wrote:
jedrider wrote:I could not understand how he believes that humanity "will" be wiped out by as soon as 2025. He has a level of certainty that I don't hear elsewhere, so I wonder about that.


We better alert the suicide hotline in 2026 for Guy when humanity is still 8 billion strong.


I'm happy and Guy seems happy, too! Well, there's some existential dread. Possibly the type of dread that the original existential philosophers felt when their world view was overturned by there being no God, no evident purpose to one's existence. Most of us do lead a nice life, with sufficient purpose, that this is no longer an issue. And if it was an issue for us, at least, we can calm the premonition by going shopping :)

I'm mostly interested in the mechanism of extinction. It's a form of gawking, no doubt, but most of us like to feel in control of something. There is no worst (well, one of the worst) feeling than confusion when in peril.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 18:42:12

Jed, as I understand it, another crucial step for Guy is when--because of local air pollution concerns or economic slowdown--there is a big drop in the amount of aerosols being emitted by coal plants, and when that 'aerosol parasol' falls out of the sky shortly thereafter, global temperature jump by 2C.

That figure is probably too high, which is kind of his modus operandi--pick the worst possible numbers that have ever been generated by science and assume those are the best values rather than outlier, low-probability possibilities. He also doesn't always update to the latest science.

I think he is not as far off as his most vociferous detractors claim. But I think his precise predictions are unlikely to come to fruition exactly along his ridiculously specific time frames.
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