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climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 05 Apr 2018, 21:56:33

onlooker wrote: but Nature is death, disease and starvation. It is inevitable now. I personally wish that it was not.


Nature has always been the ultimate arbiter. And the ultimate nurturer. The mother. In this sense the death disease and starvation that nature will one day bestow upon us will nurture wisdom. Even as she corrects and destroys she still nurtures.

This is very close to most folks religious orientations, surrendering over to a greater power, a greater wisdom, a creator and destroyer.

We seem to be hard wired this way. The vast majority of us anyway. Those who are outliers to this orientation wont change the trajectory.

There is no evangelical savior, no eco Christ who will awaken and enlighten.
The die is caste and the road no longer has a fork in it or a choice. We are committed.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 05 Apr 2018, 22:20:01

Intellectually I fully understand this surrendering to nature’s path. In some strange way it is the same answer Cog keeps coming back to.

But there is always a part of me in my core that says....

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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 05 Apr 2018, 23:24:59

Onlooker, when it comes to agriculture, humans produce food by tilling/cultivating/harvesting with petroleum fuels, and by applying fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides that are predominantly petrochemicals. Then we process and refrigerate and transport this food using more fuels and more fossil energy. THAT is why in a nutshell, 6/7ths of the world will die when the oil gets too scarce to use for all these purposes, because 6/7ths of the human food supply will be gone.

Unfortunately, we are omnivores and I know enough Vietnamese folks to understand that "food" is a rather broader category than most Americans believe, because they eat and relish what I consider to be weeds and vermin. However, what this really means is that after the oil runs out and we are reduced to classic Agrarian methods, we can feed 1/7th of the present population. It also means that you will primarily eat food grown within 100 miles or so around you.

Unfortunately, those Vietnamese folks have also taught me that as they starve to death, the 6/7ths of the humans who are doomed will wound the Earth more grievously than ever before, as they struggle to survive while eating everything animal and vegetable and insect in sight.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 06:06:33

"as they starve to death, the 6/7ths of the humans who are doomed will wound the Earth more grievously than ever before, as they struggle to survive while eating everything animal and vegetable and insect in sight."

Here we agree. One reason that I'm not as excited about collapse as a 'solution' as some folks. It will surely accelerate much species extinction wherever there are humans, which is nearly everywhere...though maybe the oceans will be able to start to recover, to some extent.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 07:24:50

Depends Dohboi, if the fall is very fast then their may be little additional degradation. If it’s sloooow, then yes.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 07:42:41

Good point, except I'm finding it hard to imagine how 7.5 billion could disappear 'fast enough' not to do lots of damage on their way out. Were you thinking of a specific mechanism...nuclear war or something? Of course, that would have its own...consequences.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 10:31:59

It is time the scientists got past the consensus argument and on to the most likely chain of events that threaten the human population. There is no sense moving your city twenty or sixty meters up hill if you won't have a food supply when you get there.
An asteroid hit like the one that ended the dinosaurs probably kicked up enough dust to darken the sky for several years severely reducing plant growth wiping out the herbivores and then the carnivores for lack of herbivores to eat. In addition the strike may have rung the earths bell hard enough to cause major slippage in the tectonic plates setting off a round of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions sufficient to keep the skies dark for years.
What we are doing is a lot milder by comparison and unless you predict that all feedback loops will run against life on earth the outcome should be less severe. Moving back from a rising sea level doesn't necessarily kill you. Even the Pacific islands that will be totally submerged will only require the inhabitants to move to the mainland. Will it be droughts that affect a majority of the crop land in the world?
Or will one regions drought be balanced by better weather elsewhere? Will ocean acidification not only collapse what is left of the wild catch fisheries but make aquaculture in the estuaries nonproductive? Will a flooded Bangladesh become the fish farm of the world?
I think there are a lot more good questions out there on the subject then there are good reliable answers.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 10:47:23

It is spring and the sun is rising for turkey vultures and earthworms.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 13:49:34

I have always maintained that even if real, climate change and anthropogenic global warming are in all aspects less deady and far more survivable than a world without cheap fossil fuel energy or petrochemicals.

The First World is where we can still afford to burn FF's while the Second World starves. Doom started a long time ago, and one symptom is the flow of refugees into the First World.

Those places on Earth where humans are firmly coupled to the Earth and do not utilize FF's are also likely to survive the end of cheap fossil energy. The problem is that there are very few such places left, and relatively few humans that were not at least minimally benefitted by cheap fossil energy, even if it was only a distant hospital ship that healed them, or mysterious sacks of grain or cases of drinking water unloaded from trucks and helicopters. This exacerbated the problems they already had and enabled them to grow into Second World status.

So I believe that when the 22nd century arrives, the surviving humans will be an odd combination of the First World, pretty much impoverished by expensive energy, and expending the larger portion of their income to eat, and the Third World that never was benefitted by cheap energy, and won't miss it.

Then the Second World, all the billions whose very existence depended on FF's, will be gone.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 17:07:47

The fact of that matter is that the conditions on this planet do not get much worse than during a Mass Extinction Event. Kaiser and others you should read up on it, especially the biggest "The Great Dying" about 250 million years ago, poisonous vapors rising from the ocean in the form of Hydrogen Sulfide, the Oceans virtually dead. Remember also, that the speed of change and impact that we humans are forcing is unlike any previous. So that will complicate any adaptation by ecosystems and life around the planet. That then seriously jeopardizes our chances of survival. On the other hand, the prodigious energy from FF, could allow us to mitigate and adapt somewhat to climate change.

Fact, is I only hold out hope for some radical technological magic bullet, to save some semblance of modern civilization and even to save us from possible extinction. Genetic advances, space faring, geoengineering etc. Maybe something like this can save some measure of cohesive human societies in the further off future. Because the planet will be devastated and probably quite difficult to live on.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 17:41:31

You assume that as carbon dioxide and other GHG levels in the atmosphere rise, so will temperatures. You also assume that the rise will in some fashion be proportional to those GHG levels, and the atmospheric levels will be proportional to human GHG emissions. But it is certainly true that NONE of those are good assumptions.

The reason that none of the climate models are worth a damn is that the world is an insanely complex system, full of negative feedbacks that resist change. Some natural GHG abatement mechanisms that can only be described as negligent in impact today, will be happening with a vengeance as temperatures rise. The result will be a system that reaches a new equilibrium at a higher average temperature, not a world with temperatures spiking beyond reason.

Cloud covers are one such mechanism. As temperatures rise, cloud covers increase, and more heat is trapped in the upper atmosphere and less reaches the surface. Increased plant growth and an increased sequestration rate is another result of a negative feedback due to increased carbon dioxide.

For your ELE to occur, the world would have to be a dynamically unstable system that catastropically failed as the GHGs increased. That is simply not how planets work. There are periods in the past when GHGs and temperatures have increased far beyond where we are today. Then the feedbacks rolled back temperatures again. Human generated excess GHGs will be no different.

The real danger is that we will rip through all the oil, followed by all the coal, and not find new energy sources to replace them, and not renew our infrastructure to be more energy efficient than today. As I have said before, we could run our civilization on one sixth the energy we consume today, after infrastructure renewal. That level of energy consumption could easily be supplied by feeble renewable sources. Such renewal should have started decades ago, because using the last of the oil for that purpose would have eased the pain greatly.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 17:57:38

I will qualify my statement by pointing out the obvious. I am not a climate scientist. But from what I read, your assertions Kaiser are not fully convincing because of the following. First off, the negative feedbacks from my understanding are slow to act and can be overwhelmed with sufficient GHG in the atmosphere. That is precisely what is happening now, we are introducing ever more GHG at speeds and rates which I believe the negative feedbacks cannot keep up with. Second, correlation between GHG is the atmosphere and temperatures is quite firm. Third, whatever natural mitigation will occur will happen in time frames not relevant to us and to most life currently on Earth. That is precisely why Mass Extinction Events have occurred because organisms could not adapt fast enough via Natural Selection , mutations , responsive behavior etc. to withstand and survive under the new conditions.

And make no mistake about it the conditions are to put it mildly harsh. Lack of oxygen from both plankton and land plants dying. Suffocating wet bulb temperatures, ferocious weather, poisonous air, lack of fresh water and so on. That is why so many species went extinct during those times. The conditions were not conducive to life or to those type of life forms.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 18:06:06

Ping ponging back and forth since months arguing which is worse, climate change or peak oil. Is this entertaining for you guys. How absolutely boring. KJ, what a waste of retirement. Onlooker, go get a life.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 19:51:08

dohboi wrote:Good point, except I'm finding it hard to imagine how 7.5 billion could disappear 'fast enough' not to do lots of damage on their way out. Were you thinking of a specific mechanism...nuclear war or something? Of course, that would have its own...consequences.


There are mechanisms for a very fast crash, but they are all very low probability. A meteor strike, a nuclear was that unleashes a neckear winter, some biological attack/plague. The direct result of war is unlikely to have a big impact. I think it’s more likely to be a predominantly slow decline with slips here and there. A jerky path down. That is probably the worst case scenario.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 19:53:39

In the meantime... looking out my back door a few minutes ago.


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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 20:03:10

I think a large scale nuclear war is a very remote possibility. All the major players understand the consequences enough to choose other means. What is possible is one of the rouge states , most likely North Korea or Iran launching at their enemy, USA or Israel and themselves becoming a radioactive glass parking lot within hours.
The more likely scenario is migrants leaving impoverished areas of the earth trying to take over in the host countries they end up in, and the native population's backlash to that sparking civil wars and genocides.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Apr 2018, 09:28:10

Soooo, then the 'best' we can hope for is a small scale nuke war?
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 07 Apr 2018, 09:50:47

The dependency that modern humans have on civilization actually acts as a conservative flywheel keeping the house of cards from falling apart, even with the advance of destabilizing climate change and peak oil. There will be no significant die-off. There will be a contraction drawn out through generations. This is a non topic actually.

There is no going back to foraging in nature just as there is no real alternative to being part of the global matrix of civilization. There is tremendous built in resiliency to this system exactly because there is no viable alternative and individual humans will socialize towards capitulating with the demands of increased efficiency on all fronts.

Peak oil and climate change will definitely influence the system of governance going forward, becoming far more authoritarian because of the necessity of efficiency. China will lead the way as they have had the most practice. America will suffer growing pains for a couple centuries.

Contraction on all fronts of resources and a less stable environment along with agricultural yield loss will result in mandated efficiencies all across the board from the food you eat to the way you transport yourself to the way you power and eat or cool your home, etc. etc. etc. This will result in cutting into individual freedoms as the police state grows. Regulations will rise. Hive mind will thrive. Internet will be in the service of guiding the hive mind, not in empowering individuals. The foundation blocks have already been laid.

This is our future. There is no big event coming. It is a waste of time to dissect this. The future is already clear. No collapse on the short, mid or even long term horizon.

You know why I see this all so clear?... Because I have backed away from obsessing on it.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Apr 2018, 10:22:37

dohboi wrote:Soooo, then the 'best' we can hope for is a small scale nuke war?

No of course not. We can hope for and work at having no wars of any kind as they are not something that is ever profitable any longer. They haven't been profitable sense about 1900.
How to avoid the migrations of distressed populations and the civil wars and genocides they will create is the more pressing problem and perhaps the more difficult.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 07 Apr 2018, 10:30:59

Ibon wrote:The dependency that modern humans have on civilization actually acts as a conservative flywheel keeping the house of cards from falling apart, even with the advance of destabilizing climate change and peak oil. There will be no significant die-off. There will be a contraction drawn out through generations. This is a non topic actually.

There is no going back to foraging in nature just as there is no real alternative to being part of the global matrix of civilization. There is tremendous built in resiliency to this system exactly because there is no viable alternative and individual humans will socialize towards capitulating with the demands of increased efficiency on all fronts.

Peak oil and climate change will definitely influence the system of governance going forward, becoming far more authoritarian because of the necessity of efficiency. China will lead the way as they have had the most practice. America will suffer growing pains for a couple centuries.

Contraction on all fronts of resources and a less stable environment along with agricultural yield loss will result in mandated efficiencies all across the board from the food you eat to the way you transport yourself to the way you power and eat or cool your home, etc. etc. etc. This will result in cutting into individual freedoms as the police state grows. Regulations will rise. Hive mind will thrive. Internet will be in the service of guiding the hive mind, not in empowering individuals. The foundation blocks have already been laid.

This is our future. There is no big event coming. It is a waste of time to dissect this. The future is already clear. No collapse on the short, mid or even long term horizon.

You know why I see this all so clear?... Because I have backed away from obsessing on it.


But if there's no eminent doom, there will be no basis for carbon taxes and redistribution of all that cash to faux green techie projects and yearly climate gabfests and money for tree ring and coral studies and the IPCC ......?
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