Cities completely abandoned in the post-oil world?

[ralfy]

Cuba consumes 176,600 barrel oil per day for 11,07 Million people. That's around 6 barrel oil per capita at a GDP of 9,900US$ per capita (=1,700US$ GDP for one barrel oil consumed) For comparison Germany consumes 2,495,000 barrel oil per day for 81,3 million people
Maybe countries with an oil consumption of less than 1 barrel per capita (and year) do exist and a GDP of at least 5.000US$ per capita, that could be called examples for an oil efficient country?
Source for all data: https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... index.html

One should probably look at resource consumption overall rather than just oil imported, as a country with large amounts of money can buy goods manufactured elsewhere in order to maintain a middle class lifestyle.

Also, this might not simply be an issue of "mastering peak oil" but adjusting to a resource crunch. With that, I'd look at ecological footprint indicators vs. biocapacity, etc. For example,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... _footprint

The goal, then, would be an ecological footprint of 1.8 global hectares, i.e., following biocapacity per capita given the current global population. That, of course, will have to drop as global population increases or if resources are made inaccessible or damaged due to pollution, climate change, etc.

[ralfy]

One more thing: oil consumption and even ecological footprint are, of course, not the only factors to consider, but also the ability to maintain basic needs amid low levels of consumption. This is going to be very difficult.

Consider, for example, the Philippines: more than 300,000 mb/d and a population of more than 90 million, with a per capita GDP of more than $4,000. And yet it has a poverty rate of between 60 to 88 pct, a lack of various basic needs, etc.

[argyle]

When the decline sets in.. I think that both the rural villages as the cities will be hell-holes in the long run.. just different in their challenges.. (for example, villages can more easily provide in water, food, sanitation,.. but have less access to hospitals & other services/goods.)

I'm not so worried about food really, even though I live in Belgium (flanders) which is very densly populated. If we cut out a lot of waste, less meat for example but more grains, potatoes, etc.. (like how people lived around/before the industrial revolution, or even my grandparents in the 1900's), there should be plenty of food.. Except for the "major" cities of Brussels & Antwerp, I believe that there is enough farm land around cities to provide us with what we need. Every villager & small city occupant will have his own garden, chickens, rabbits,.. to process most of their "waste" into something editable.

What would worry me more is the lack of access to modern medicine, vaccines, etc.. A lot of elderly and sick will perish somewhere down the slope of peak oil production.. A small infection could even be the end of your life..

I don't believe/think that people will die of starvation (not enough to eat).. but the attrition (death vs births) will be much higher due to a less broad menu (vitamins, minerals,..) and higher death from simple infections, viruses, diseases..

Both large cities vs small towns/villages will have their challenges..

Personaly I've chosen for a small village (where I know 70% of the ppl in some way or another), close to some smaller towns(5miles), and about 15miles from a larger town.
Investing/learning in making you less dependent on the system (active & passive PV), well insulated house, well, garden & orchard & greenhouse, animals (eggs, meat, milk, wool,..), small woodlot (only for cooking atm), basic tools & supplies,...
Investing/learning in something that will bring you resources/money even in a very basic economy. (property to rent out, farmland, woodland, ...) or have skills that will be in demand.

My problem with skills is that with most the ones I can learn, I will not be as good as the ones that are doing it now for a job.
For example, I build my own house (almost did everything myself), but I will never be as good as a self-employed construction worker/carpenter doing it on a daily basis. So I see that marketability of that skill as very low. So I'll try to look for "niche" markets for things don't make sense yet to do in current environment, but might be hard to get by or are in demand later on. (distilling alcohol maybe?)
But it's still very hard to predict what skills will do well, and work for me (vs the competition) so I try to invest in property that might generate resoruces/wealth and that are nearby (easier to control). It is still good to have those skills (construction, gardening, sewing, fixing 1000 different kind of things, etc) to keep your own cost down though and depend less on other or the system.

[Pops]

"poor in the city or poor in the country" That's about the long and short of it, all the debate is simply people trying to reassure themselves in their own situation.

The hardest part of transitioning won't be in the circumstance we end up, we're bound to be better off than where we started a couple hundred years ago. Surprisingly there were lots of cities before oil and oil has helped us learn a lot since and we have a lot left to fix big problems. The hard part will be in the individual transition. Even aside from the bigger questions about energy intensive infrastructure the immediate problem for most will not be availability of water/food/shelter, it will be earning an income to purchase those things.

How does a dress shop advertising designer boy like me make his living in a world with no dress shops or newspapers? What does an used car salesman sell when there are no cars? How does a new construction super eat when there is no new construction?

A bit dramatic? Not unless you are in one of the boats that no longer float. The jobs recession of 2000 is still very much with us, the trickle down isn't and the stimulus hasn't, at least for J6p ...





http://seekingalpha.com/article/340171- ... ion-growth
http://www.ericforsenate.com/2012/03/mi ... s-squeeze/

[Fishman]

"giant "mines" from which scrap metal can be retrieved for use in smaller, less grand purposes" Finally, a purpose for Detroit. Where "income distribution" and "wealth disparity" corrections have worked so well.

[Corella]

@Pops,
organize a society, providing water, food, shelter not rising questions about the deserve of it. But agreed, good post from yourself! What may be the bigger danger to become poor, rising oil prices or economic system malfunction? Is the malfunction necessarily systemic or does it come from damage competition in a world, nations try struggle others out while corporations are globalized already? Personally i´d guess great potential in globalization of standards. But we need to ease this economical war, which is possibly the one and only origin of those damage debts.

[Pops]

Corella in the US today I'm not sure what is the biggest immediate problem, probably an overhang of debt, a financial system turned casino backed by a government more and more run as a for-profit business – add in of course the volatility of energy prices keeping a damper on everything.

Longer term is the growing inequality of opportunity. I read recently that the US ranks 34th of 35 countries for social mobility, in other words, if you're born poor you'll stay that way, if you're born well off you'll likewise remain well off. When the realization sinks in that the American Dream is just that I'm not sure how the proles will take it.

So, short term, I guess we'll muddle along, MBAs will flip burgers and continue living in Mom's basement watching wall to wall political attack ads on TV paid for by billionaire ideologues.

Longer term there will almost certainly be a clash between the people who truly believe they are entitled... and the other people who truly believe they are entitled.

To get back to the OP, that clash is one of the reasons why I don't live in the city.

[roccman]

Corella in the US today I'm not sure what is the biggest immediate problem....

I vote humans inability to steward safely radioactive waste. This alone will kill off the entire planet..."at some point". And i think this great realization is not very far off in the future.

WRT OP - I would not be suprised if a seed population of humans is currently being transported off planet to an exo-planet...of course you would need a little alien help, is anyone 100% convinced there are no aliens intervening? If not, then you must entertain the possibility...if there is someone...then maybe crop circles are really made by billy joe bob and his cousin ernie in the middle of the night year after year after year after year - never once being videod or photographed or bitten by farmers dogs OR leaving ONE footprint in the crop.


crop circles

[EnergyUnlimited]

These are hoaxes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crop_circle

[roccman]

These are hoaxes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crop_circle

billions believe in a god hanging on a cross with far less evidence.

oh well

[Corella]

@Pops, i´d guess many processes overlapping. Agreed that distances between poor and rich grow bigger and that this is of system immanent origin. But if it carries on, rich people will end up poor too because of system crash. Social market economy is a try but doesn´t work well in times of damage competition. So there will be no way go around a crash if not taking from higher levels. One step before the abyss there hopefully will be insight.
Further: to be capable finding international standards at all, nations need to equal their standards a certain proportion. Means for US, middle and south Europe adjusting down, also caused by laws of economical war. Yes, i do find G20-summits exciting

[roccman]

Means for US, middle and south Europe adjusting down, also caused by laws of economical war.

This is happening by design

the west is being powered down while the east is powered up.

the Great Equalization is underfoot.

The global cabal of the rich (the farneses, aldobrandinis, maximus etc) stay in power.

But then again - there is this wee problem of nuc waste.

From nuc power to nuc weapon...the storing of nuc waste for 100s of thousands of years was not quite as sexy as producing the power - so our monkey politicians gave it not much thought beyond a swimming pool...well they will give it much more thought in the very near future with or without PO and Overshoot looming in the bushes.

then we all die...except those zip off to another exo planet.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=31401

[Ferretlover]

Cities completely abandoned in the post-oil world?
Not as long as there is some place that provides a roof over one's head, or, there's something left to scavenge.
Think of all the little Barter Towns that will appear in odd, defendable places.
As for the countryside, those who can make it out of the cities & towns will swarm just like locusts.
Face it: humans, breeding out of control, are the "flesh-eating bateria" of this planet.

[LoneSnark2]

The cities existed and were populous before oil so they'd exist and be populous after oil.

If you burn them down they'll just be rebuilt. The countryside needs them just as much as they need the countryside.

[Lore]

Cities as they exist today are not engineered for a post-oil world.

[Ferretlover]

That sounds logical to me, Lore. It is not possible for most people, today, to live easily, if at all, in a city without the benefits that oil has provided.

[Newfie]

I find many good comments and thoughts in this thread. However I think we are over thinking this process. I don't see any reason to believe that the collapse will be logical and react to rational market forces.

Thus I don't believe that it will be possible to predict how it will all unravel.

That being said, let me wade into the muddy water with my own predictions.

I think that we will try to keep Reno and Vegas going far after they should have been shut down. They will be in the vanguard of the decline, but we will still be in deep denial and unable to comprehend our limits to stave off the inevitable. We will try to prop up these population centers with a sort of "domino theory." If we let Vega go, then what next? It will be the start of a slippery slope of recognition that we will avoid at great cost.

Continuing with this theory we will invest too much into retaining the vestiges of our past greatness, we will be in deep denial about the future trends, and we will not take the logical and rational measures to ease the "power down."

One could argue that we are already abandoning cities such as Detroit. Perhaps even that we are abandoning large parts of LA, NYC, Philadelphia, etc. for the urban infrastructure is crumbling. The physical infrastructure to be sure but the social infrastructure even more so. Graduation rates are below 50% and to be a graduate implies no great learning or skill. Yet we all vote. So we are creating a huge mass of uneducated and burdened electorate, what chance do they have of making informed decisions? Thus I see them reacting to emotional appeals, perhaps resulting in internal chaos and further bifurcation of our culture.

Think of this as an electoral MASS, swinging wildly as the ship of state rocks and rolls. I predict it will become impossible to predict what this mass will do.

Perhaps, at some point, likely well after my lifetime, that there will be a coup, or "revolution," or realignment in a effort to stabilize our political system. This may well result in some form of Fascism, anything to make the trains run on time. But even a strong arm government will be beholden to the mass of population and will make many decisions based not upon what is right (even if they could figure it out) but upon what it takes to retain their seat of power.

In summary I believe that we will go through a longish period were we do whatever is necessary to maintain our self image of grandness. We will waste many resources and much time in trying to prop up cities which never should have been. Then we will pass into a time of greater volatility where prediction is far beyond our capacity.

The end products will be ugly and uneven.

May you be well endowed with copious amounts of good luck.

[Beery1]

I've always wondered whether the great cities of the world such as NYC, Chicago, LA, Tokyo, Shanghai, Singapore etc. have any chance of surviving after the oil crash.

Did cities exist before the age of oil? If so, they'll almost certainly exist after it's over.

London was a city of 2 million in 1850.

So let's not get too excited about an anarcho-primitivist future - it ain't gonna happen.

[dinopello]

What is the question ? There are around twenty thousand cities in the US. People always throw out the exceptional cities when talking about these things and forget about the rest. Possibly some cities will fold but most won't and many will thrive (relatively).

[lper100km]

Most European and many NA cities were developed and occupied years before the oil age. However, there was a balance between urban and rural living that supported both. Today’s urban sprawl and city population density has increased to the detriment of arable and agricultural land and ensured that local agricultural efforts will not support the local population. @Beery1 If London in the 1850s had 2m people, there were some 8m engaged in agricultural activities to support themselves and the city dwellers.

It is worth pondering that because of the blessings of technology, cost accounting and the influence of business schools everywhere, most, if not all city dwellers are now dependent upon remote sources for fresh and manufactured foods and on fragile supply chains, even for staples. A disruption will result in empty shelves in two days or less.

Your view on the fate of cities will be influenced on whether you believe in a fast or managed crash. I have to think that their outlook in the long run is not encouraging for either scenario, given the potential for inadequate power and transportation, infrastructure crumbling for lack of ability to maintain it, lack of basic services, unlivable hi-rise apartments. This is not to say that there will be no life in the cities. Certainly there will be survivors, but I doubt they will be enjoying a latte and watching the sunset from a poolside deck as a regular feature. But who knows.