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Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 01 Jan 2013, 00:33:55

kublikhan wrote:3. Now cutting total world oil production is good for OPEC because restricted supply raises prices, but no one wants to cut their own production because they want to maximize their own revenue. So most OPEC members lie about their reserves in order to be allowed to pump more oil.
Tragedy of the Commons. It's curious Oily doesn't understand this meme. Is it a bulwark concept of the Good Capitalist Society, of which Oily is a hopeful intern-in-training. It appears Oily has not yet achieved his Bobcat Badge.

By the way, your posted article is from the Christian Science Monitor, obvious End-of-World Doomer types not to be trusted.
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 01 Jan 2013, 16:42:27

OilFinder2 wrote:Your statement, ... was also an assertion.

They are synonyms. /facepalm.
I would not categorize the sanctions as being all that "difficult" to impose the first time

Is that why the oil sanctions have not been passed by the UN. :lol: Beyond clueless. Oil sanctions are largely bilateral and hardly universally observed.

You did. See below.
Where?


Hey dumbass,
Elegant.

"Spare capacity" is something one has RIGHT NOW.
Is it? Even the famed Saudi spare capacity can take a while to bring online. :)

So now your contorted argument has been reduced to,
Its not.

I await your next attempts to contradict yourself
I haven't.
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 01 Jan 2013, 16:48:28

OilFinder2 wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote: Furthermore, by telling me Iran is padding their reserves, you're defacto telling me they're capable of much greater output (otherwise, as a member of OPEC there wouldn't be any point in padding their reserves).
Still making the same mistake. You are persistant and vain, I will give you that.

This is not aimed at oily who is desperate to believe every word from Tehran, as it suits there deperate need to believe in abundance.....

But padding reserves does not mean they have oil ready to flow. It is as much potential oil flow when reserves are exploited. There are offcourse other reasons beyond wanting to appear flush with oil to outside countries. There are internal reasons that people might be giving it the big one to the press. "Look at our glorious revolution that is ensuring your future prosperity".

Point being there are many motivations for claiming reserve finds (credit worthyness may be another).
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 01 Jan 2013, 16:51:01

dorlomin wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
dorlomin wrote:Yes we are right

You can always tell someone is desperate to score debating points when they claim victory on a point nobody in the world disputes.
Dear god. No my child, starting where their is little dispute to build an argument is not "desperation" but normal rhetoric. Uncontested propositions are the logical place to begin to build argument.
No response? Oh well. 8)


And offcourse Iran does likely have some unused capacity that is currently ready to ship to market.

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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 01 Jan 2013, 19:58:33

dorlomin wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:"Spare capacity" is something one has RIGHT NOW.
Is it? Even the famed Saudi spare capacity can take a while to bring online. :)

Yeah - what? One month? Two months? Three months? Wow! That is essentially "right now." So once again, your claim amounts to telling us Iran is exaggerating their discoveries - which won't come online for years - in order to assure the world they've got spare capacity RIGHT NOW (which includes 1-3 months) ... which they don't really have, because, as you said, the discoveries can't come online for years!

dorlomin wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:Hey dumbass,

Elegant.

I calls 'em as I sees 'em.

dorlomin wrote:Its not.

Yes it is.

dorlomin wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:I await your next attempts to contradict yourself

I haven't.

By now you've contradicted yourself at least 3 or 4 times.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 01 Jan 2013, 20:05:20

dorlomin wrote:And offcourse Iran does likely have some unused capacity that is currently ready to ship to market.

Image

Are you really this dense? Whatever spare capacity Iran does have now due to the sanctions has nothing to do with their discoveries. In case you've already forgotten, it's the discovery figures which are what you disputed in the first place, and which you claimed was the source of their supposed spare capacity! Do I actually need to bring up the quote of yours again where you stated this?

Since you've got such a short memory, here it is.
dorlomin wrote:...appearing to have a greater unused capacity they have a tool to leverage countries who do not have the same ideological animus the US has towards them
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 01 Jan 2013, 21:25:30

kublikhan wrote:3. Now cutting total world oil production is good for OPEC because restricted supply raises prices, but no one wants to cut their own production because they want to maximize their own revenue. So most OPEC members lie about their reserves in order to be allowed to pump more oil. Iran's oil reserves were inflated by over 90% between 1987 and 1988 from 49 billion barrels to 93 billion barrels. This does not mean their oil production capacity suddenly jumped from 4.5 million barrels a day to nearly 8 billion barrels a day. But it does mean they are allowed to pump more oil under OPEC's oil production quota. So instead of dropping down from say 4.5 million to 2.7 million, they can pump oil at a higher level, say 3.9 million.

I'm sorry, but this is where the whole OPEC reserve conspiracy theory falls apart. The theory says OPEC members pad their reserves in order to be allowed higher production quotas. But when it comes to actual production, how often have member nations actually lowered their production in response to a lower quota? Not often, except occasionally the Saudis - and even the Saudis often ignore their quota. Why lie about your reserves when doing so gains you nothing in terms of production?

Of course this is going on right now, as it has for at least 2-3 years (and many times before that). Members pretty much do whatever they want. Some of them (such as Nigeria and Angola) can't even control their output, because 100% (or close to it) of their output is under control of international oil companies who aren't going to cut their output just because some government official tells them to.
Recently, OPEC has not revealed specific quotas for members. But the whole organization was supposed to observe a 30 million barrel-per-day ceiling, which it is now being exceeded by around 1 million barrels per day.

BTW, from one of your links:
In October 2010 Iraq announced an increase in its oil reserves from 115 billion barrels to 143.1 billion barrels. No attempt was made to hide the reason for the increase: "Falah al-Amri, the head of the country’s State Oil Marketing Company, suggested that future quota calculations might have been a factor in the revision."

I don't know anything about Mr. al-Amri, but there's little doubt Iraq has that much oil.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 01 Jan 2013, 22:45:23

OilFinder2 wrote:I'm sorry, but this is where the whole OPEC reserve conspiracy theory falls apart. The theory says OPEC members pad their reserves in order to be allowed higher production quotas. But when it comes to actual production, how often have member nations actually lowered their production in response to a lower quota? Not often, except occasionally the Saudis - and even the Saudis often ignore their quota. Why lie about your reserves when doing so gains you nothing in terms of production?
There is cheating of course. Actual production is almost always above the quota. But actual production and quota tend to track fairly close. When the quota goes down, actual production goes down. When the quota goes up, actual production goes up. This broke down for a few years after 1985 when Saudi Arabia saw it's market share drastically shrink and abandoned it's role as the sole bearer of pain. It took a few years, but eventually discipline was restored and quota and actual production started tracking more closely. Iraq is technically still part of OPEC, but it's production quota is currently suspended. So when comparing quota to production you might want to look at the blue line below.

Image

Conclusion
Quotas are still the rule in OPEC and haven't changed since January 2009.

It is well known now that OPEC increased their so-called proven reserves by 300 Gb from 1986 to 1989 (which Sadad al-Husseini called speculative resources in 2007) because of a fight for quotas in a low price environment. Despite that, quotas are now agreed upon in OPEC meetings without any reference to reserves; the recent October increase of Iraq's reserves followed by Iran's reserves increase indicates that OPEC members are still keen to stay at the same rank. It is not surprising to find that the technical remaining reserves are quite different. In its last estimate of proven reserves (on 6 December 2010), the OGJ did not accept Iran's and Iraq's updated values, waiting for further discussions! As long as quotas prevail, OPEC's members will cheat on reporting reserves and even on reporting oil production.
OPEC quotas and crude oil production

As for the reserve padding being a conspiracy theory, it's not much of a conspiracy when official government documents state as much. Kuwaiti documents state their actual reserves are half what their published reserves are. The former head of the Saudi Arabian oil company flat out said the reserves were padded by about 300 Gbbl. An oil expert in Iran(Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari) quoted a similar figure, 320-390 Gbbl. I think this would be more accurately described as an open secret, not a conspiracy theory.

The most prominent explanation of the revisions is prompted by a change in OPEC rules which set production quotas (partly) on reserves. In any event, the revisions in official data had little to do with the actual discovery of new reserves.
Total reserves in many OPEC countries hardly changed in the 1990s. Official reserves in Kuwait, for example, were unchanged at 96.5 Gbbl from 1991 to 2002, even though the country produced more than 8 Gbbl and did not make any important new discoveries during that period. The case of Saudi Arabia is also striking, with proven reserves estimated at between 260 and 264 billion barrels in the past 18 years, a variation of less than 2%, while extracting approximately 60 billion barrels during this period.
Sadad al-Huseini, former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, estimates 300 Gbbl of the world's 1,200 Gbbl of proven reserves should be recategorized as speculative resources, though he did not specify which countries had inflated their reserves. Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company, has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390bn barrels and has said, "As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic assay." Petroleum Intelligence Weekly reported that official confidential Kuwaiti documents estimate reserves of Kuwait were only 48 billion barrels , of which half were proven and half were possible. The combined value of proven and possible is half of the official public estimate of proven reserves.
Oil reserves

The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, the Government's former chief scientist

The scientist and researchers from Oxford University argue that official figures are inflated because member countries of the oil cartel, OPEC, over-reported reserves in the 1980s when competing for global market share.

Their new research argues that estimates of conventional reserves should be downgraded from 1,150bn to 1,350bn barrels to between 850bn and 900bn barrels and claims that demand may outstrip supply as early as 2014. The researchers claim it is an open secret that OPEC is likely to have inflated its reserves, but that the International Energy Agency (IEA), BP, the Energy Information Administration and World Oil do not take this into account in their statistics.

When one looks at the history of OPEC reserves shown in Figure 4, one can see they were raised very substantially in the 1980s, without any corresponding reported new fields being found, apparently because countries were at that time vying for production quotas, and higher reserves might have allowed greater production quotas. The reserves have not been reduced in recent years, even though oil has been extracted from these fields, tending to add further to questions about these reserves.

The UK Telegraph article is related to a peer reviewed article soon to be published in the journal Energy Policy.
The Key conclusions section of the paper reads:
• World oil reserve estimates are best described by 2P reporting. This means public reserve figures should be revised down-wards from 1150–1350 Gb to 850–900 Gb.
UK Telegraph Reports, "Oil Reserves 'Exaggerated by One Third'"
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Jan 2013, 00:05:58

K, your own chart shows OPEC producing over its quota ... eyeballing it, probably 90% of the time. The quotas are useless, nothing but talk, and irrelevant to production. By now, all members of OPEC know this, so why should they care about their reserves as it relates to their quotas? If they can cheat willy-nilly on their quotas, why care about them at all? By now, any talk about quotas is mere political expediency, making it look like they're doing something even though they really aren't. Perhaps it serves as some sort of social glue among the OPEC members, or something like that.

Maybe in the 80's when they first devised the quota/reserve system, most members were naive enough to think it would actually *do* something, and maybe some of them panicked. But as your chart shows, history since then has proven the quotas to be largely irrelevant, and I'm sure all OPEC members know this by now, and act upon it.

Image
^
The last 2 dips in that chart were in the early 2000's and around 2008-09, both of which were recessions. Of course oil demand is going to go down during a recession, and consequently, OPEC is going to pump less oil. So even without a quota, they would have pumped less oil anyway. Which demonstrates, once again, that their quotas are irrelevant. Or at the very least, they've become irrelevant since somewhere in the early 90's.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Jan 2013, 00:36:19

kublikhan wrote:As for the reserve padding being a conspiracy theory, it's not much of a conspiracy when official government documents state as much. Kuwaiti documents state their actual reserves are half what their published reserves are. The former head of the Saudi Arabian oil company flat out said the reserves were padded by about 300 Gbbl.

And other official government documents back up the reserve figures. In fact they say the reserves could be much greater than the official figures. I don't see much point in pointing to OPEC Official X as saying the reserves are exaggerated, because for every one you can find saying the figures are exaggerated, I can find one who says the figures are just fine, and maybe even understated.

Their new research argues that estimates of conventional reserves should be downgraded from 1,150bn to 1,350bn barrels to between 850bn and 900bn barrels and claims that demand may outstrip supply as early as 2014.

Do you honestly believe that OPEC supply (conventional or otherwise) is going to be over-run by demand in 2 years? Especially with Iraq coming online.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jan 2013, 02:20:21

OilFinder2 wrote:K, your own chart shows OPEC producing over its quota ... eyeballing it, probably 90% of the time.
I already mentioned they cheat on the quota. But actual production still goes up and down with the quotas. Actual production is pretty consistently several percentage points above quota. That's the cheating. Sometimes they crack down on cheating and the spread narrows, sometimes it gets wider. But actual production is constantly going up and down. You earlier claimed that productions cuts were rare and largely ignored the quota. It looks to me like the 2 move in tandem, or at least pretty close to it most of the time.

OilFinder2 wrote:And other official government documents back up the reserve figures. In fact they say the reserves could be much greater than the official figures. I don't see much point in pointing to OPEC Official X as saying the reserves are exaggerated, because for every one you can find saying the figures are exaggerated, I can find one who says the figures are just fine, and maybe even understated.
Fine, forget the expert quotes. Lets just look at the facts:
1. Quota system is introduced based on members reserves. Larger reserves = larger amounts of oil allowed to be pumped
2. Shortly there after, nearly every member nation announces huge increases to it's reserves. No corresponding discoveries occur to account for these revisions.
What conclusions would you draw from these facts?

OilFinder2 wrote:Do you honestly believe that OPEC supply (conventional or otherwise) is going to be over-run by demand in 2 years? Especially with Iraq coming online.
Met demand can never exceed supply. Demand destruction will occur when the price rises too high, as as been happening in the OECD countries for the past several years.

OilFinder2 wrote:Maybe in the 80's when they first devised the quota/reserve system, most members were naive enough to think it would actually *do* something, and maybe some of them panicked. But as your chart shows, history since then has proven the quotas to be largely irrelevant, and I'm sure all OPEC members know this by now, and act upon it.

The last 2 dips in that chart were in the early 2000's and around 2008-09, both of which were recessions. Of course oil demand is going to go down during a recession, and consequently, OPEC is going to pump less oil. So even without a quota, they would have pumped less oil anyway. Which demonstrates, once again, that their quotas are irrelevant. Or at the very least, they've become irrelevant since somewhere in the early 90's.
Perhaps. But the original question was: Are the reserve estimates accurate, or have they been fluffed up by political shenanigans like the quota/reserve system? Even if the quota system is largely irrelevant as you claim, that doesn't convince me that the reserve figures haven't been puffed up.
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 02 Jan 2013, 03:02:32

OilFinder2 wrote:Yeah - what? One month? Two months? Three months? Wow! That is essentially "right now."
And where have you pulled these numbers from? 8)
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 02 Jan 2013, 03:08:35

OilFinder2 wrote:Are you really this dense?
You seem very very desperate to get in a bit of personal abuse.


Whatever spare capacity Iran does have now due to the sanctions
Who said otherwise.

it's the discovery figures which are what you disputed in the first place, and which you claimed was the source of their supposed spare capacity
Lol what!

You start this post by claiming I am stupid then you make such a fool of yourself.


Poor child.

And still no evidence of any real oil discoveries in Iran beyond press releases.
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 02 Jan 2013, 03:12:11

dorlomin wrote:
dorlomin wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
dorlomin wrote:Yes we are right

You can always tell someone is desperate to score debating points when they claim victory on a point nobody in the world disputes.
Dear god. No my child, starting where their is little dispute to build an argument is not "desperation" but normal rhetoric. Uncontested propositions are the logical place to begin to build argument.
No response? Oh well. 8)
8)

Again, so quick with abuse, but not able to defend the abuse when questioned. :mrgreen:

Poor child.
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 02 Jan 2013, 13:40:56

What matters is that this catalog is bad science, merely random numbers pulled from different magazines, web-sites, private/public/industry agencies, nations, and companies using different standards of measure. It is not baseline data.

Oily's attempt at normalizing the numbers is limited to formatting. He has made no effort to convert source data into an adjusted standard. The numbers look nice on the screen but the numbers behind the pretty pictures are junk. This is the work of a weenie child in his basement.

The tragic irony of this (for oily) is that the only audience for this charade is me dorlimin and a few other peakers and doomers that Oily despises. The audience Oily covets (industry insiders, government analysts, investment advisors and private investors) will never read this dribble. So sad. :razz:
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 03 Jan 2013, 03:24:47

I stopped reading all his posts about four years ago. Surely he's here to create doubt among the newbies who come here, but if he succeeds that's not his fault but the intelligence level, lack thereof, of people who fall for his 'gimmick'. Of course it's good to have at least one person in the noise trenches pointing out the absence of signal to help save some initial confusion for newbies who'll learn sooner than later that way. In that sense pstarr's doing a thankless service for this site. :-D
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 03 Jan 2013, 13:02:06

jupiters_release wrote:I stopped reading all his posts about four years ago. Surely he's here to create doubt among the newbies who come here, but if he succeeds that's not his fault but the intelligence level, lack thereof, of people who fall for his 'gimmick'. Of course it's good to have at least one person in the noise trenches pointing out the absence of signal to help save some initial confusion for newbies who'll learn sooner than later that way. In that sense pstarr's doing a thankless service for this site. :-D
The newbies come and go. Most folks don't have the luxury of curiosity, the patience to understand the geology and politics of peak oil. They Obey their charlatan of choice.

Oily's motivation? Maybe he's an 'analyst' hoping to snag the investor-class for a fleecing. Or Oily wants to leave the family basement for a job interview? Could be a salary, oil-industry (koch brother disinfo) pin money. He sure spends a lot of time here. In his many login versions a lot more than me.

I mostly believe Oily is out of his mind, a left-over from a banished meme. A Creationist out to prove God is Good, or an old technocrat who misses the punch card. I don't like his lies, and mostly mock him for sport. I despise his smug defense of the American Empire, our destructive American suburban consumerism. It all leads to AGW and species extinction. We should know better. It sickens me, and therefore he sickens me. I also take responsibility to this web site (after all, I am an Expert), and so I maintain interest, drive activity while the clock ticks down.
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Thu 03 Jan 2013, 14:07:43

pstarr wrote:The tragic irony of this (for oily) is that the only audience for this charade is me dorlimin and a few other peakers and doomers that Oily despises. The audience Oily covets (industry insiders, government analysts, investment advisors and private investors) will never read this dribble. So sad. :razz:


Interesting. How do we know this? it would seem easy enough to check, do we have any domain tracking software available to show that no .gov, or .citibank, or .doe domains come here?
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Thu 03 Jan 2013, 14:13:10

jupiters_release wrote:I stopped reading all his posts about four years ago. Surely he's here to create doubt among the newbies who come here, but if he succeeds that's not his fault but the intelligence level, lack thereof, of people who fall for his 'gimmick'.D


Discovering new oil, and counting it, is a gimmick? Hubbert did it, the big banks and energy agencies do it, even Colin Campbell guesses at how much is left out there (not much apparently), and I'll bet if you asked him right up front, the head of ASPO international would be forced to admit that, yes, new oil is being discovered.

So if all these people count this stuff, worry about it, debate whether or not, or how much, more there is, why can't we?
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Re: Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Thu 03 Jan 2013, 14:23:14

pstarr wrote:The newbies come and go. Most folks don't have the luxury of curiosity, the patience to understand the geology and politics of peak oil. They Obey their charlatan of choice.


It isn't about luxury. Most Americans aren't curious. Have no patience. Know no geology. And don't pay much attention to politics (unless they are old), and certainly don't know anything about the peak oil kind, if there even is such a thing. Is there such a thing?

Years after oil plateaued the ASPO finally gets around to presenting their side to the government agency dedicated to quantifying, analyzing and modeling just this concept. Is that the politics of peak oil? I always figured politics was local (the kind that matters anyway), and locally I paid $2.45/gal for gasoline last week. I wonder if that is a "political" question, price goes down, who gives a rats behind about politics of peak, what ASPO USA says, energy independence of the country or the pipeline through Nebraska, time to tank up the monster truck and go on a road trip!
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