[SamInNebraska]

Current prices are going down. And apparently car buyers are noticing as well.

I think you might be drawing the wrong conclusion from that article. The article notes people are migrating to more fuel efficient vehicles. High gasoline prices are encouraging high sales of fuel efficient vehicles.

This is a good thing. And it has happened before. Is there a concern that, like before, within a period of years the price will crash and we will be dealing with motoring utopia...again? Except this time, it could be much worse (better), because the cars now increasing in sales, some of them don't even require crude oil to run?

http://www.automotiveaddicts.com/34693/ ... le-in-2012

[ralfy]

Given the point by ARAMCO that we've consumed only around 25 pct of oil worldwide, then there will definitely be more discoveries.

But to prepare, we will want a bumpy, extended incline (not decline), especially given coupled economies, a growing middle class, a debt-ridden global economy, and long-term effects of environmental damage and global warming on resource availability.

Also, we will want expected production rates affected by energy return rather than reserves. For that, the IEA expects an increase in production from all oil and gas sources by 9 pct during the next two decades thanks to these discoveries.

Finally, we will want to look at expected demand. According to the IEA, we will need the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every seven years to maintain global GDP growth. And that's assuming that underlying conventional oil production does not drop.

[MrEnergyCzar]

Price is an interesting way to look at it.

"In terms of Peak Oil all it refers to is having reached the peak in production....the idea that this represents half of the reserves is complete BS and can be shown to be wrong historically. Whether it is oil from conventional reservoirs or unconventional reservoirs doesn't make a difference as long as we are talking about production of a fungible commodity. There are finer points to argue regarding how fungible some of the liquids produced are, however."
rockdoc123
Fusion

I see Peak Oil as referring to the peaking of oil we can afford to burn to grow the economy, basically the conventional peak in 2006. I've noticed the last couple of years the additions of biofuels, tar sands and other unconventional low EROEI or barely even EROEI sources being used to keep raising the total oil production without subtracting the increased energy used to get it. An oil graph showing the net energy available after the oil is produced would be the ultimate graph.... I would bet, at best, we'd be still on a plateau in the 74 mb/day range instead of 90....

MrEnergyCzar

[copious.abundance]

Catching up on at least one I missed. Might be more later.

Pg. 51 of the document in the link says 2012 net risked resources in this area are at 2.1 billion bbl, 64% of which is oil/liquids. That would be 1.344 billion bbl.

Size of discovery: 1.344 billion barrels recoverable oil/liquids
Date: December 6, 2012
Company(s): Noble Energy
Name: Niobrara DJ Basin acreage
Location: Colorado
API: typically light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): Typical wells a couple hundred to a couple thousand bpd IP
Estimated production startup date: Currently under development, 9,500 drilling locations identified
PDF LINK, pg. 51

Recoverable running total year to date: 22.29 billion barrels minimum to 26.926 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 9.3 billion barrels minimum to 9.7 billion barrels maximum

-------------------------------------------------------

United States Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Jack 2 (Lower Tertiary/Wilcox Trend) - 3-15 billion barrels - 9/06
Tranquillon Ridge - 170-200 million barrels - 11/06
West Tonga and Ceasar - 100 million barrels - 12/07
Barnett Shale "Combo Play" - 225-460 million barrels - 3/08
Additions to Spraberry Trend - 1.1 billion barrels - 4/08
Pony - 200 million barrels - 05/08
Jumonville #1 Bullseye - 16 million barrels - 8/08
BEXP Ross Field Bakken properies - 42-71 million barrels - 10/08
EOG Eagle Ford shale properties - 690 million barrels - 4/10
EOG Bakken/Three Forks properties - 298 million barrels - 4/10
Chesapeake Energy Niobrara shale properties - 4.2 billion barrels - 11/10
Anadarko Niobrara shale-Wattenburg field properties - 350 million-1.05 billion barrels - 11/11
Venoco properties in Monterey shale - 105 million barrels - 11/11
Additions to EOG Eagle Ford shale properties - 446 million barrels - 2/12
Anadarko Eagle Ford shale acreage - 390 million barrels - 3/12
Anadarko Permian Basin (Avalon & Bone Spring) acreage - 340 million barrels - 3/12
Anadarko Wattenburg/Niobrara shale acreage - 300-900 million barrels - 3/12
Noble Energy Niobrara shale acreate - 1.344 billion barrels - 12/12

[copious.abundance]

I'm not "hiding" as anyone there. In more than one case there I've linked to comments I made on this forum and told them this username here is the same person as abundance.concept there. In fact when I first signed up there I told everyone here I would use the name "abundance.concept." What is so "hiding" about that? Nothing. It's something I've told both forums about. Everybody who knows both forums knows that.

RockyMtnGuy is wrong, most of the oil generated in a source rock does not "escape to the surface and is destroyed by bacterial action." I actually had a similar discussion with (I think) him on that topic some time ago, but he seems to have forgotten.

Anyway this is off-topic for this thread so I've put the rest of my reply to your misinformed opinion here in a more appropriate thread.

[copious.abundance]

Here is Oilfinder (over on the oildrum, hiding as abundance.concept) misrepresenting tight-shale in Alaska. He suggests trillions of barrels of tight-shale in Alaska are waiting to be extracted;

BTW, speaking of misrepresenting things, you are misrepresenting what I said. I never said all those trillions of barrels on Alaska's North Slope will be recoverable (obviously they won't). I was responding directly to this comment, which cited a study on Arabian Plate source rocks:

The predicted cumulative volumes of oil and gas expelled from the Silurian ‘hot’ shale contained within the present oil window across the depocenter range between 430 and 760 billion bbl of oil and 1540 and 2575 tcf of gas. Cumulative volumes of oil and gas expelled from the present gas window range between 3000 and 3600 billion barrels of oil and 21,595 and 39,200 tcf of gas.

That's 3 to 3.6 trillion barrels of oil. Obviously he was not claiming all that was recoverable. And in my response regarding the Alaska North Slope source rocks, neither was I.

And FWIW, later on Rockman told me I was actually being pessimistic!

a-c: Actually as far as the volume of shale formations which have generated oil I could argue that you’re being pessimistic.

[copious.abundance]

Time for the (belated) year-end review.

2012 Year-End Review

------------------------------------
------------------------------------
Discovery With Oil-In-Place Amounts
------------------------------------
------------------------------------

In 2009 and 2010 I cataloged a total of 2.7 - 5.7 billion barrels OIP in this one. It's now up to 12.4 - 15 billion barrels OIP. So I'll add 9.3 - 9.7 billion barrels OIP to this year's catalog.

Size of discovery: 9.3 - 9.7 billion barrels OIP
Date: July 19, 2012
Company(s): Gulf Keystone
Name: Additions to Shaikan
Location: Kurdistan, Iraq
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------
------------------------------------
Discoveries With Recoverable Amounts
------------------------------------
------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 200 - 300 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: January 9, 2012
Company(s): Statoil, Eni and Petoro AS
Name: Havis
Location: Barents Sea, Norway
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Last year I cataloged two seperate entries of 150 million and 545 million barrels in this formation. New out today is that YPF/Repsol's evaluation is up to a total of almost 23 billion boe. Parsing the press release, it looks like a lot of that is gas, and Repsol/YPF don't have leaseholds in the entire area, so the oil-only net-to-Repsol total is considerably less. There are 6 different categories of reserves in the press release, and as often noted in this thread I'm not here to catalog P1 - P3 reserves (unless that's the only thing I can get). The category here which seem most appropriate for "discovery" status seems to be "Contingent Resources," whose definition can be found here (PDF) and in the narrative to the press release (last page) which, indeed, are potentially recoverable reserves from discovered (known) resources:

Contingent Resource.
Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable ...

Since I only catalog discovered accumulations in ownership of a company, the contingent resource would be the one net to Respol/YPF. The oil-only number for that is 883 million barrels. Subtracting last year's entries leaves us 188 million barrels.

Size of discovery: 188 million barrels recoverable
Date: February 8, 2012
Company(s): Repsol YPF
Name: Additions to YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation
Location: Argentina
API: light
Flow rate of test well(s): 180-600 bpd
Estimated production startup date: 30 wells already producing, estimated 2,000 to develop the project
LINK (press release)
LINK
LINK
LINK (PDF -narrative supplement to press release)

------------------------------------

In April 2010 I cataloged 690 million barrels of this. They've since added to it. Page 20 of the link (PDF) says they're now at 1.136 billion barrels (oil only). So 1136 - 690 = 446 million barrels for this entry.

Size of discovery: 446 million barrels recoverable
Date: February 16, 2012
Company(s): EOG
Name: Additions to EOG leaseholds of Eagle Ford shale
Location: South Texas
API: Light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): ~ 600-2800 bpd (pg 23)
Estimated production startup date: Already producing
LINK (PDF)

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 113 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: February 24, 2012
Company(s): Petrobras
Name: Bauna
Location: Santos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------

Size of discovery: 83 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: February 24, 2012
Company(s): Petrobras
Name: Piracaba
Location: Santos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

This one says 600+ million BOE on pg. 25 of the link, and it says the liquids composition is 65%. Doesn't say how much of that is oil, condensate and NGL's, but at least it eliminates the dry gas portion of the BOE

Size of discovery: 390 million barrels barrels recoverable liquids
Date: March 13, 2012
Company(s): Anadarko Petroleum Corp.
Name: Anadarko Eagle Ford Shale acreage
Location: South Texas
API: light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): few hundred bpd to over 1,000 bpd
Estimated production startup date: Ongoing production startup
LINK (PDF, pg 25)

------------------------------------

On page 35 of the link we've got Anadarko's Permian Basin holdings categorized into 2 zones:
Avalon: 400 million BOE is 15% oil = 60 million barrels oil only
Bone Spring: 400 million BOE is 70% oil = 280 million barrels oil only
-----------
Total is 340 million barrels

Size of discovery: 340 million barrels recoverable oil
Date: March 13, 2012
Company(s): Anadarko Petroleum Corporation
Name: Anadarko Permian Basin acreage (Avalon and Bone Spring)
Location: West Texas
API: light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): few hundred bpd to over 1,000 bpd
Estimated production startup date: Ongoing production startup
LINK (PDF, pg 35)

------------------------------------

On pages 43 & 49 of the link we've got Anadarko's Wattenburg/Niobrara Shale acreages. Page 43 says the total net resources is 500 million - 1.5 billion barrels. Page 49 says the typical well in the play will produce 60% oil.
So this gives us a range of 300-900 million barrels of oil-only.

Size of discovery: 300 - 900 million barrels recoverable oil
Date: March 13, 2012
Company(s): Anadarko Petroleum Corporation
Name: Anadarko Wattenburg/Niobrara Shale acreage
Location: Colorado
API: light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): 400-1500 bpd (pg 44)
Estimated production startup date: Ongoing production startup
LINK (PDF, ppg 43 & 49)

------------------------------------

In June 2010 I cataloged 242 million barrels for this one. Now they're giving a middle estimate of 355.6 million barrels (rounded up to 356). Subtract 242 from that and this year we get an addition of 144 million barrels.

Size of discovery: 114 million barrels recoverable
Date: April 20, 2012
Company(s): Rockhopper Exploration
Name: Additions to Sea Lion (including Casper, Casper South, B15 and SL05)
Location: Falkland Islands
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: 2016
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 60-160 million barrels recoverable
Date: April 16, 2012
Company(s): Wintershall
Name: Skarfjell
Location: North Sea, Norway
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 147 million barrels recoverable
Date: April 23, 2012
Company(s): WesternZagros Resources
Name: Kurdamir
Location: Kurdistan, Iraq
API: "light oil"
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Here's more of the weird Iranian announcements. Not much detail, but the link says:

The official added that the actual amount of oil and condensate discovered last year exceeds 2.87 billion barrels ...

Given my policy for adding to the catalog in the year they're announced, they're going in this year rather than last year.

Last year I *did* catalog one named Iranian discovery named "Khayyam" which was 170 million barrels, so just in case their total announced today includes that, I'll subtract it from the amount announced today.

Since these are being called "reserves" I presume they're recoverable amounts.

Size of discovery: 2.7 billion barrels recoverable
Date: April 21,2012
Company(s): National Iranian Oil Company
Name: Various un-named discoveries
Location: Iran
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

This one is mostly a gas field but does contain some oil.

Size of discovery: 600 million barrels recoverable
Date: April 22, 2012
Company(s): Noble Energy
Name: Leviathan
Location: Offshore Israel
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 285 million barrels recoverable
Date: April 25, 2012
Company(s): OGX
Name: Waikiki ("Turabao Martelo", blocks BM-C-39 and BM-C-40)
Location: Campos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: Q4 2013
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 8 -10 billion barrels recoverable
Date: May 19, 2012
Company(s): National Iranian Oil Company
Name: Sardar-e Jangal
Location: Caspian Sea, Iran
API: 40-45
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 55 million barrels recoverable
Date: May 21, 2012
Company(s): Bapex
Name: Kailashtila and Sylhet
Location: Northeast Bangladesh
API: "sweet"
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 700 million barrels recoverable
Date: May 24, 2012
Company(s): Statoil, Repsol and Sinopec
Name: Seat, Gavea and Pao de Acucar
Location: Campos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Back in April I cataloged 147 million barrels in this discovery. They've since discovered more in the field so I'll subtract the mean estimate (oil only) in the link from the April figure.

Size of discovery: 131 million barrels recoverable
Date: April 6, 2012
Company(s): WesternZagros
Name: Addition to Kurdamir
Location: Kurdistan, Iraq
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 100-200 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: June 20, 2012
Company(s): Statoil
Name: Mizzen
Location: Offshore Newfoundland, Canada
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 5-6 billion barrels recoverable
Date: July 3, 2012
Company(s): National Iranian Oil Company (I presume)
Name: Unknown name near Yadavaran oilfield in Khuzestan province
Location: Iran
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 140-270 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: August 27, 2012
Company(s): Statoil and partners
Name: Geitungen
Location: Norwegian North Sea
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 250-400 million barrels P3 reserves
Date: August 29, 2012
Company(s): Pemex
Name: Trion
Location: Offshore Mexico, Gulf of Mexico
API: "light oil"
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

This discovery appears to include a revision to the previous discovery listed above (from a max. of 500 down to 400 million barrels) so I'll bump down the year-to-date maximum by 100 million barrels.

Size of discovery: 75-125 million barrels 3P (recoverable) reserves
Date: October 5, 2012
Company(s): Pemex
Name: Supremus
Location: Offshore Mexico, Gulf of Mexico
API: "light" oil
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 500 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: November 26, 2012
Company(s): Pemex
Name: Navegante
Location: Tabasco state, Mexico
API: 45 degrees API
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 280 million barrels recoverable
Date: October 10, 2012
Company(s): Providence Resources
Name: Barryroe
Location: Offshore Ireland
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 25-75 million barrels recoverable
Date: December 3, 2012
Company(s): Total
Name: Garantiana
Location: Norwegian North Sea
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): 4,300 bpd
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 30 million barrels recoverable
Date: December 4, 2012
Company(s): Wintershall
Name: Exploration license F17a
Location: Dutch North Sea
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Pg. 51 of the document in the link says 2012 net risked resources in this area are at 2.1 billion bbl, 64% of which is oil/liquids. That would be 1.344 billion bbl.

Size of discovery: 1.344 billion barrels recoverable oil/liquids
Date: December 6, 2012
Company(s): Noble Energy
Name: Niobrara DJ Basin acreage
Location: Colorado
API: typically light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): Typical wells a couple hundred to a couple thousand bpd IP
Estimated production startup date: Currently under development, 9,500 drilling locations identified
PDF LINK, pg. 51

------------------------------------

2012 Totals:

Recoverable Total: 22.596 billion barrels minimum to 26.876 billion barrels maximum
OIP Total: 9.3 billion barrels minimum to 9.7 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

2011
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 11.581 billion barrels minimum to 14.281 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 300 million barrels minimum to 300 million barrels maximum
2010
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 41.577 billion barrels minimum to 44.873 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 91.26 billion barrels minimum to 92.8 billion barrels maximum
2009
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 12.009 billion barrels minimum - 18.731 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 13.514 billion barrels minimum - 15.069 billion barrels maximum
-----------------------------------
2008: 24.009 billion - 27.758 billion barrels
2007: 32.32 billion - 36.85 billion barrels
2006: 10.65 - 25.9 billion barrels

[copious.abundance]

Plus we've got our first 2 for 2013.

Size of discovery: 20-40 million barrels recoverable
Date: January 11, 2013
Company(s): Wintershall
Name: Asha Noor
Location: North Sea offshore Norway
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No inforamtion
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 20 million barrels minimum to 40 million barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 0 barrels minimum to 0 barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 150 million barrels recoverable
Date: January 17, 2013
Company(s): Eni
Name: Sankofa East
Location: Offshore Ghana
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 170 million barrels minimum to 190 million barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 0 barrels minimum to 0 barrels maximum

[Beery1]

2012 Totals:

Recoverable Total: 22.596 billion barrels minimum to 26.876 billion barrels maximum
OIP Total: 9.3 billion barrels minimum to 9.7 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

2011
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 11.581 billion barrels minimum to 14.281 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 300 million barrels minimum to 300 million barrels maximum
2010
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 41.577 billion barrels minimum to 44.873 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 91.26 billion barrels minimum to 92.8 billion barrels maximum
2009
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 12.009 billion barrels minimum - 18.731 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 13.514 billion barrels minimum - 15.069 billion barrels maximum
-----------------------------------
2008: 24.009 billion - 27.758 billion barrels
2007: 32.32 billion - 36.85 billion barrels
2006: 10.65 - 25.9 billion barrels

This is nice, but not very informative. How much of that will actually be recovered and what are the flow rates going to be?

[SamInNebraska]

This is nice, but not very informative. How much of that will actually be recovered and what are the flow rates going to be?

Are you kidding? These are just the initial estimates of size, they aren't even speculating on flowrates yet! But considering this is the initial size, ultimately they are going to be quite a bit bigger. Maybe the flowrates will as well?

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0115-00/fs-0115-00po.pdf

[copious.abundance]

This is nice, but not very informative. How much of that will actually be recovered and what are the flow rates going to be?

For the first half of your question, notice I have a category called "recoverable." As for the second half of your question, I've got everything from heavy oil sands to light sweet crude, in every location from deepwater to the plains of Colorado. So there's no single answer to the second half of your question.

[SamInNebraska]

Try this simple experiment; search oily's so-called 'finds' for the expression "billion." You will find they are all either deep-water or tight-shale plays, the so-called 'high-hanging fruit' that Laherre warned us about all those years ago in his ground-breaking 1998 Sci-American article.

Warned us about? People manufacture gasoline out of this stuff, and we put it in our cars without noticing, is it going to do something bad to them? Can we buy gasoline from stores which don't use any of the gasoline manufactured from the bad stuff, and just go buy gasoline made out of the good stuff?

All the wasted years scraping the proverbial bottom of the barrel, throwing away the last of our children's inheritance of inexpensive oil (and very valuable rusting infrastructure) on a fruitless search for more inexpensive oil. There will be no more. It doesn't exist. Sad many don't understand. Sad so many a psychopath who care only for their own bottom line. Sad Oily is their tool

Oily seems to be contradicting the point that there will be no more. Because he sure is counting some mores! By the time the numbers are adjusted to their final size over the next 50 years or so, the mores will be even alot mores! But this stuff hurting the cars and vehicles we put it in because it is bad stuff, is there some place I can find out what parts I need to worry about replacing because of it?

[ralfy]

Even the Saudis argued in the past that we have "lots" of oil worldwide because we've used only 25 pct of what is found underground. But, as Beery, Pstarr, and others put it, the rate of extraction will matter most, especially in light of energy returns and the rate of demand.

For now, the IEA states that at best we should see energy production from all oil and gas sources worldwide increase by 9 pct during the next two decades, but that's based on the assumption that conventional production will not drop.

Meanwhile, the same IEA and other threads reveal that demand has to go up by up to 2 pct per annum in order to maintain economic growth.

[SeaGypsy]

Funny how they always neglect to mention well count/ production ratio, which is as exponential as our resulting population.

[dorlomin]

Try this simple experiment; search oily's so-called 'finds' for the expression "billion." You will find they are all either deep-water or tight-shale plays,

You have forgotten the press releases from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Oily has many billions of barrels of press release oil.

[Keith_McClary]

Warned us about? People manufacture gasoline out of this stuff, and we put it in our cars without noticing, is it going to do something bad to them? Can we buy gasoline from stores which don't use any of the gasoline manufactured from the bad stuff, and just go buy gasoline made out of the good stuff?
..
But this stuff hurting the cars and vehicles we put it in because it is bad stuff, is there some place I can find out what parts I need to worry about replacing because of it?

I don't think anyone is saying it's hurting our cars - just that it's hurting our wallets and our grandkids better find something else to power their SUVs or whatever moves them.