Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

[dorlomin]

Like a crooked business that announces the same sales two years in a row in their year end reports to try to make them look better.

And whats more Oil Finder 2 is proud of their actions. So one has to ask how many times it has already happened, how much of this oil being 'found' is just rehashing old press releases and recoucting already celebrated oil.

Not a shred of shame at being caught with the hand in the till.

[OilFinder2]

Time for another bump!

Please repeat after me: "I, dorlomin, have never put something somewhere, only to decide later on it should have been placed somewhere else. I am always right the first time. Thus, I expect others to be exactly right the first time, as I am."

The catalog is open for all to see. You are free to look for repeats.

[dorlomin]

Time for another bump!

Please repeat after me: "I, dorlomin, have never put something somewhere, only to decide later on it should have been placed somewhere else. I am always right the first time. Thus, I expect others to be exactly right the first time, as I am."

So when you say 'this is the oil we have found in 2012', you are also saying 'and we will find some of it again in 2013, 2014 and so on.'

Keep digging.

[OilFinder2]

Please repeat after me: "I, dorlomin, have never put something somewhere, only to decide later on it should have been placed somewhere else. I am always right the first time. Thus, I expect others to be exactly right the first time, as I am."

[dorlomin]

Please am time me: to ", have , on never others somewhere repeat the as something first somewhere, after should right always exactly Thus it Ibeen placed right have else. I am decide only the put . later , I expect dorlomin to be first time, I ."

So where you put something has no bearing on its meaning now does it.

[OilFinder2]

So where you put something has no bearing on its meaning now does it.

You are absolutely correct: Where I put that catalog entry did have bearing on its meaning ... which is why I moved it from 2010 to 2011. Since the discovery size was actually announced in 2011, and not in 2010, it would have been incorrect for me to leave it in 2010. Thus, I moved it to its rightful location in 2011.

[dorlomin]

Where I put that catalog entry did have bearing on its meaning ... which is why I moved it from 2010 to 2011. Since the discovery size was actually announced in 2011, and not in 2010, it would have been incorrect for me

Thank you.

Dont play chess, you swap your rooks for a pawn.

I have the quote I have been fishing for now.

[OilFinder2]

Well, I'm glad you finally agree with me that moving the entry to 2011 was the correct thing to do. Glad we got that settled.

[dorlomin]

Well, I'm glad you finally agree

Curious.

Such an interesting psychology on display without reflection of how it appears.

Still, predictable and malleable.

[OilFinder2]

Curious.

Such an interesting psychology on display without reflection of how it appears.

Still, predictable and malleable.

[OilFinder2]

Our first entry for 2012.

Size of discovery: 200 - 300 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: January 9, 2012
Company(s): Statoil, Eni and Petoro AS
Name: Havis
Location: Barents Sea, Norway
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 200 million barrels minimum to 300 million barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 0 barrels minimum to 0 barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Norway Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Nucula - 300-500 million barrels - 2/07
Goliath - 1.5 billion barrels - 6/07
Exploration Well 16/1 (Luno or PL338) - 60-180 million barrels - 10/07
Storskrymten - 107 million barrels - 11/07
SW of Grane field - 30 million barrels
Well 35/11-B23-H in the Fram area - 20-40 million barrels - 01/08
PL292 (Pi North and Pi South) - 19-32 million barrels - 5/08
PL104 & nearby Theta (2 seperate prospects) - 16 million & 5 million barrels - 5/08
Jordbaer - 150 million barrels - 8/08
Draupne - 28-68 million barrels - 8/08
Dagny - 100-125 million barrels - 8/08
Additions to Dagne - 30-50 million barrels - 10/08 (Note: Not sure if this is the same as Dagny, they're spelled differently in the articles - However I treated them as the same field so this is an addition to Dagny)
Additions to Luno - 5-10 million barrels - 1/09
Dompap - 25-30 million barrels - 1/09
Curran - 3-16 million barrels - 1/09
Vigdis North-East (part of PL089) - 25 million barrels - 3/09
Gygrid - 20-30 million barrels - 6/09
Grevling - 40-130 million barrels - 6/09
Grosbeak - 35-190 million barrels - 7/09
Bream - 38-63 million barrels - 8/09
Frigg Delta - 18-35 million barrels - 10/09
Fossekall - 37-63 million barrels - 4/10
Maria - 60-120 million barrels - 7/10
Skrugard - 150-250 million barrels - 4/11
Aldous & Avaldsnes - 300-800 million barrels - 8/11
Additions to Aldous & Avaldsnes - 900 million-1.8 billion barrels - 9/11
Havis - 200-300 million barrels - 1/12

[vtsnowedin]

Our first entry for 2012.

Size of discovery: 200 - 300 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: January 9, 2012
Company(s): Statoil, Eni and Petoro AS
Name: Havis
Location: Barents Sea, Norway
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 200 million barrels minimum to 300 million barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 0 barrels minimum to 0 barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Norway Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Nucula - 300-500 million barrels - 2/07
Goliath - 1.5 billion barrels - 6/07
Exploration Well 16/1 (Luno or PL338) - 60-180 million barrels - 10/07
Storskrymten - 107 million barrels - 11/07
SW of Grane field - 30 million barrels
Well 35/11-B23-H in the Fram area - 20-40 million barrels - 01/08
PL292 (Pi North and Pi South) - 19-32 million barrels - 5/08
PL104 & nearby Theta (2 seperate prospects) - 16 million & 5 million barrels - 5/08
Jordbaer - 150 million barrels - 8/08
Draupne - 28-68 million barrels - 8/08
Dagny - 100-125 million barrels - 8/08
Additions to Dagne - 30-50 million barrels - 10/08 (Note: Not sure if this is the same as Dagny, they're spelled differently in the articles - However I treated them as the same field so this is an addition to Dagny)
Additions to Luno - 5-10 million barrels - 1/09
Dompap - 25-30 million barrels - 1/09
Curran - 3-16 million barrels - 1/09
Vigdis North-East (part of PL089) - 25 million barrels - 3/09
Gygrid - 20-30 million barrels - 6/09
Grevling - 40-130 million barrels - 6/09
Grosbeak - 35-190 million barrels - 7/09
Bream - 38-63 million barrels - 8/09
Frigg Delta - 18-35 million barrels - 10/09
Fossekall - 37-63 million barrels - 4/10
Maria - 60-120 million barrels - 7/10
Skrugard - 150-250 million barrels - 4/11
Aldous & Avaldsnes - 300-800 million barrels - 8/11
Additions to Aldous & Avaldsnes - 900 million-1.8 billion barrels - 9/11
Havis - 200-300 million barrels - 1/12

So in four years of active exploration in a promising area they have found enough oil to meet world present consumption for 46 days more or less depending on actual recovery totals. At any rate they are not finding it as fast as the existing fields are declining. so there is no good news here.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-1 ... ate1-.html

Total petroleum production for 2010 reached 229.5 million cubic meters, falling short of a January 2010 estimate of 236 million cubic meters after halts at fields including Statoil’s Gullfaks, Tordis, Vale and Heidrun. Statoil, which operates 80 percent of the country’s production, in November cut its output guidance for 2010 to 1.9 million barrels a day.

2015 Forecast
Norway’s oil production is expected to drop to 88.9 million cubic meters in 2015, while gas output will climb to 112.2 billion cubic meters in the same period, the directorate said. Total output will decline to 221 million cubic meters by 2015, the agency forecast.

Norway’s oil and natural gas investments may reach a record 150.8 billion kroner ($25 billion) next year, from 133 billion kroner this year, as companies increase spending on platforms to keep aging fields alive, Norway’s Statistic Agency said last month. Statoil expects to raise its investments about 14 percent to about 40 billion kroner, it said in December.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

Hello OilFinder2, AKA Abundance.Concept

How is the discovery graph coming along?
It looks like you have given up on anyone finding substantial amounts of new oil, and have turned to touting natural gas.

In retrospect, I should thank you for working the data, as it will map to the decline demonstrated by the dispersive discovery model very well.

[OilFinder2]

It looks like you have given up on anyone finding substantial amounts of new oil, and have turned to touting natural gas.

Huh???? Now what are you pulling out of your rear end?

[OilFinder2]

Last year I cataloged two seperate entries of 150 million and 545 million barrels in this formation. New out today is that YPF/Repsol's evaluation is up to a total of almost 23 billion boe. Parsing the press release, it looks like a lot of that is gas, and Repsol/YPF don't have leaseholds in the entire area, so the oil-only net-to-Repsol total is considerably less. There are 6 different categories of reserves in the press release, and as often noted in this thread I'm not here to catalog P1 - P3 reserves (unless that's the only thing I can get). The category here which seem most appropriate for "discovery" status seems to be "Contingent Resources," whose definition can be found here (PDF) and in the narrative to the press release (last page) which, indeed, are potentially recoverable reserves from discovered (known) resources:

Contingent Resource.
Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable ...

Since I only catalog discovered accumulations in ownership of a company, the contingent resource would be the one net to Respol/YPF. The oil-only number for that is 883 million barrels. Subtracting last year's entries leaves us 188 million barrels.

Size of discovery: 188 million barrels recoverable
Date: February 8, 2012
Company(s): Repsol YPF
Name: Additions to YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation
Location: Argentina
API: light
Flow rate of test well(s): 180-600 bpd
Estimated production startup date: 30 wells already producing, estimated 2,000 to develop the project
LINK (press release)
LINK
LINK
LINK (PDF -narrative supplement to press release)

Recoverable running total year to date: 388 million barrels minimum to 488 million barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: barrels minimum to barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Argentina Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation - 150 million barrels - 5/11
Additions to YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation - 545 million barrels - 11/11
Additions to YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation - 188 million barrels - 2/12

[rockdoc123]

I recommend extreme caution in using anything other than the low-ball resource estimate that came out from YPF.
This is a political situation where YPF is pressuring the government to raise prices and the gov't in turn is trying to force YPF to do more work on the acreage they currently hold and have been sitting on for nearly a decade with no increased investment. This has been playing out in the Argentine papers recently and last week the head of Repsol and Eskanasee (sp but the fellow who owns the other half of YPF) had meetings with the Kirshner gov't.
Much of the numbers coming from YPF are completely unbelievable. Those who know the geology and the area are having a pretty good chuckle right now inasmuch for them to have that much oil it would require the entire thickness of the Vaca Muerta to be in the oil window, have the same hydrocarbon saturation and the same permeability throughout the entirety of the Loma la Lata field. This is unreasonable. A more appropriate press release I read on Tuesday indicates that the majority of the number is taken up in contingent resource category which means it isn't yet proven to be economic.
Bottom line is there is some politically motivated "inventive resource calcualtion" going on here which masks what really is there. It is a significant discovery but their methods of extrapolation would almost certainly not pass muster with an independant third party audit.

[OilFinder2]

^
Thanks for the tip Rockdoc.

FWIW, the press release said that the gross, prospective resources was over 5.7 billion barrels of oil-only, while I'm only cataloging 883 million barrels, including last year's entries. So it *is* a bit of a low-ball number.

EOG also has leaseholds in this area and is upbeat on its prospects, so that seems to provide a bit of confirmation, it seems.

That said, if there are any other additions to this by YPF I'll ignore them.

[pstarr]

It looks like you have given up on anyone finding substantial amounts of new oil, and have turned to touting natural gas.

Huh???? Now what are you pulling out of your rear end?

a brown oily material that is as full of itself as the rear end is full of it. touche! But more to the point; this "catalog" of "discoveries" is little more than list of free, industry, press-releases that "oilfinder" uncovers nightly down in his basement "seismic laboratory". Those muffled popping sounds you hear? That's his thumper truck

[vision-master]

Where's RG'Drools when we need him. lol

[meemoe_uk]

Didn't he get banned years ago for applying the idea that oil experts on oil forums shouldn't put up with nonsense from doomers?