Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

[Bruce_S]

I just spotted this table of discovery and production for the years 2007-2009:

______Discoveries (Gb)___Production (Gb)
2007__10.0_____________26.0
2008__13.0_____________26.3
2009__12.4_____________25.8
Total__35.4_____________78.1

Link

This doesn't seem to match your records, Oily, and these are IHS figures.

Interesting that Laherrere uses discovery numbers to refute Yergin's reserves increase argument. Do you think he switched to another measure because he can't refute Yergin's claim?

[TonyPrep]

Interesting that Laherrere uses discovery numbers to refute Yergin's reserves increase argument. Do you think he switched to another measure because he can't refute Yergin's claim?

No, it was because Orlov got his quote wrong - he said discoveries instead of reserves. That's another issue, though, I posted this table to bring Oily back down to earth.

[Bruce_S]

Interesting that Laherrere uses discovery numbers to refute Yergin's reserves increase argument. Do you think he switched to another measure because he can't refute Yergin's claim?

No, it was because Orlov got his quote wrong - he said discoveries instead of reserves. That's another issue, though, I posted this table to bring Oily back down to earth.

In what way? He seems to indicate that these numbers roughly match what he can gather up using publicly available information.

[OilFinder2]

Size of discovery: 500 million - 1.2 billion barrels boe recoverable
Date: August 26, 2011
Company(s): Statoil
Name: Aldous and Avaldsnes
Location: Norwegian continental shelf
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

[...]

Not so fast. The article you linked to says:

Statoil Boosts Estimates at N. Sea Find
RigZone / August 16, 2011

Communication between the Aldous and Avaldsnes oil discoveries in the North Sea has now been confirmed. In combination these discoveries may represent an oil structure of between 500 million and 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent.

If the upper part of the interval strikes pay dirt, the discovery will be one of the ten largest oil finds ever on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Statoil has a 40% stake both in license PL 265, where Aldous was discovered, and in PL 501, where the Avaldsnes discovery was made. ...

In related news IF my bathtub turns out to be a Tardis then it MAY contain more oil than the entire planet Earth ever did.

Here's an update of this one. As I suspected, the numbers in my original post were conservative.

This is the addition. From the link below, the total amount of recoverable oil in the two fields:

The combined Avaldsnes/Aldous Major South discoveries therefore have a gross Contingent Resource range estimate of 1.2 to 2.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Since I've already cataloged 300-800 million barrels, I'll subtract the upper and lower ranges of the previous entry from the upper and lower ranges of the entry today.

Size of discovery: 900 million - 1.8 billion barrels recoverable
Date: September 30, 2011
Company(s): Statoil and Lundin
Name: Aldous and Avaldsnes
Location: Norwegian continental shelf
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 10.254 billion barrels minimum to 12.254 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Norway Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Nucula - 300-500 million barrels - 2/07
Goliath - 1.5 billion barrels - 6/07
Exploration Well 16/1 (Luno or PL338) - 60-180 million barrels - 10/07
Storskrymten - 107 million barrels - 11/07
SW of Grane field - 30 million barrels
Well 35/11-B23-H in the Fram area - 20-40 million barrels - 01/08
PL292 (Pi North and Pi South) - 19-32 million barrels - 5/08
PL104 & nearby Theta (2 seperate prospects) - 16 million & 5 million barrels - 5/08
Jordbaer - 150 million barrels - 8/08
Draupne - 28-68 million barrels - 8/08
Dagny - 100-125 million barrels - 8/08
Additions to Dagne - 30-50 million barrels - 10/08 (Note: Not sure if this is the same as Dagny, they're spelled differently in the articles - However I treated them as the same field so this is an addition to Dagny)
Additions to Luno - 5-10 million barrels - 1/09
Dompap - 25-30 million barrels - 1/09
Curran - 3-16 million barrels - 1/09
Vigdis North-East (part of PL089) - 25 million barrels - 3/09
Gygrid - 20-30 million barrels - 6/09
Grevling - 40-130 million barrels - 6/09
Grosbeak - 35-190 million barrels - 7/09
Bream - 38-63 million barrels - 8/09
Frigg Delta - 18-35 million barrels - 10/09
Fossekall - 37-63 million barrels - 4/10
Maria - 60-120 million barrels - 7/10
Skrugard - 150-250 million barrels - 4/11
Aldous & Avaldsnes - 300-800 million barrels - 8/11
Additions to Aldous & Avaldsnes - 900 million-1.8 billion barrels - 9/11

[OilFinder2]

This one is an addition to a 150 million bbl discovery cataloged in May. The WSJ article says it is 927 million boe, 75% of which is oil, and the rest gas. So that's 695 million bbl of oil-only. Then subtract the 150 million bbl cataloged earlier to get 545 million bbl. Looks like they're giving it a name now, too.

Size of discovery: 545 million barrels recoverable
Date: November 7, 2011
Company(s): YPF and Repsol
Name: Additions to YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation ("Loma La Lata field")
Location: Patagonia, Argentina
API: "high quality shale oil"
Flow rate of test well(s): First 15 wells flowing 200-600 boepd
Estimated production startup date: Production just starting up
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 10.799 billion barrels minimum to 12.799 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Argentina Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation - 150 million barrels - 5/11
Additions to YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation ("Loma La Lata field") - 545 million barrels - 11/11

[TheAntiDoomer]

Kewl

[OilFinder2]

The article says the wells produce about 70% liquids, so I'll take 70% of the given 500 million - 1.5 billion boe range for the catalog.

Size of discovery: 350 million - 1.05 billion barrels recoverable
Date: November 14, 2011
Company(s): Anadarko
Name: Niobrara shale in the Wattenburg Field area
Location: Colorado
API: Light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): 303 - 1,103 bopd
Estimated production startup date: 11 wells already producing, ramp-up to eventual 1,200 to 2,700 wells
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 11.099 billion barrels minimum to 13.849 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

United States Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Jack 2 (Lower Tertiary/Wilcox Trend) - 3-15 billion barrels - 9/06
Tranquillon Ridge - 170-200 million barrels - 11/06
West Tonga and Ceasar - 100 million barrels - 12/07
Barnett Shale "Combo Play" - 225-460 million barrels - 3/08
Additions to Spraberry Trend - 1.1 billion barrels - 4/08
Pony - 200 million barrels - 05/08
Jumonville #1 Bullseye - 16 million barrels - 8/08
BEXP Ross Field Bakken properies - 42-71 million barrels - 10/08
EOG Eagle Ford shale properties - 690 million barrels - 4/10
EOG Bakken/Three Forks properties - 298 million barrels - 4/10
Chesapeake Energy Niobrara shale properties - 4.2 billion barrels - 11/10
Anadarko Niobrara shale-Wattenburg field properties - 350 million-1.05 billion barrels - 11/11

-------------------------------------------------------

[OilFinder2]

Size of discovery: 227 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: November 15, 2011
Company(s): Petronas
Name: Wakid
Location: Offshore Malaysia
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): 8,200 bpd
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 11.326 billion barrels minimum to 14.076 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Malaysia Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Spaoh - 100 million barrels - 2/11
Wakid - 227 million barrels - 11/11

[OilFinder2]

Here's the last one of 2011. Will do the year-end update in a bit.

This one consists of 2 discoveries: Sevier (pg. 11 on link) at 70.3 million bbl and Salinas Valley (pg. 14 on link) at 34.4 million bbl. Total is then 104.7 million bbl, rounded up to 105.

Size of discovery: 105 million barrels recoverable
Date: November 4, 2011
Company(s): Venoco
Name: Sevier and Salinas Valley portions of Venoco acreage in Monterey Shale
Location: San Joaquin Valley, California
API: "Light Oil" (pg. 7 on link)
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: Some wells already online now
LINK (PDF - pg. 11 & pg. 14)

Recoverable running total year to date: 11.431 billion barrels minimum to 14.181 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

United States Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Jack 2 (Lower Tertiary/Wilcox Trend) - 3-15 billion barrels - 9/06
Tranquillon Ridge - 170-200 million barrels - 11/06
West Tonga and Ceasar - 100 million barrels - 12/07
Barnett Shale "Combo Play" - 225-460 million barrels - 3/08
Additions to Spraberry Trend - 1.1 billion barrels - 4/08
Pony - 200 million barrels - 05/08
Jumonville #1 Bullseye - 16 million barrels - 8/08
BEXP Ross Field Bakken properies - 42-71 million barrels - 10/08
EOG Eagle Ford shale properties - 690 million barrels - 4/10
EOG Bakken/Three Forks properties - 298 million barrels - 4/10
Chesapeake Energy Niobrara shale properties - 4.2 billion barrels - 11/10
Anadarko Niobrara shale-Wattenburg field properties - 350 million-1.05 billion barrels - 11/11
Venoco properties in Monterey shale - 105 million barrels - 11/11

[OilFinder2]

Time for the year-end review!

It was an OK year.

2011 Year-End Review

------------------------------------
------------------------------------
Discovery With Oil-In-Place Amounts
------------------------------------
------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 300 million barrels OIP
Date: February 20, 2011
Company(s): PDO, Shell and Total
Name: Amal Southeast
Location: Oman
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: This year
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------
------------------------------------
Discoveries With Recoverable Amounts
------------------------------------
------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 100 million barrels recoverable
Date: February 14, 2011
Company(s): Petronas
Name: Spaoh (Block SK306)
Location: Offshore Malaysia
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 1.17 billion barrels recoverable
Date: February 14, 2011
Company(s): Rosneft
Name: Sanarsky and Lisovsky
Location: East Siberia
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 150-250 million barrels recoverable boe
Date: April 1, 2011
Company(s): Statoil
Name: Skrugard
Location: Barents Sea, Norway
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 1.623 billion barrels boe P3
Date: January 2011
Company(s): Pemex
Name: Ayatsil-Tekel-Pit-Kayab Complex
Location: Offshore Mexico
API: "heavy"
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK (PDF pg. 19)

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 350 million barrels recoverable
Date: April 29, 2011
Company(s): Petrobras
Name: Albacora
Location: Campos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: "light" oil
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

This was first discovered in 2000, and in 2007 an estimate of about 30 million barrels was made by Woodside. With a recent appraisal well they're now saying it's at least 100 million barrels. So I'll subtract the 2007 number from the new figure.

Size of discovery: 70 million barrels recoverable
Date: May 5, 2011
Company(s): Woodside and Mitsui
Name: Laverda
Location: Offshore West Australian
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 150 million barrels recoverable
Date: May 10, 2011
Company(s): YPF
Name: YPF acreage in Vaca Muerta formation
Location: Patagonia, Argentina
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): First 5 wells flowing 200-560 boepd
Estimated production startup date: Production just starting up
LINK
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 170 million barrels recoverable
Date: May 23, 2011
Company(s): Iranian national oil company
Name: Khayyam
Location: Iran
API: 35
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 335 million barrels recoverable
Date: May 13, 2011
Company(s): Petrobras
Name: Jupiter
Location: Santos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: 18
Flow rate of test well(s): Says wells can flow at 8,000 bopd
Estimated production startup date: Production plans at link, no dates given
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 4.5 - 5 billion barrels recoverable
Date: May 26, 2011
Company(s): Petrobras and Brazilian ANP
Name: Libra
Location: Santos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: No information, typical oil here has been about 30 degrees
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Looks like there was an addition to this field from last year in addition to the one announced last week, so I'll put them both together. I had already cataloged 100 million barrels from this field in 2006.

Size of discovery: 536 million barrels recoverable
Date: July 7, 2011
Company(s): DNO
Name: Additions to Tawke
Location: Kurdistan, Iraq
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 300 - 800 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: August 26, 2011
Company(s): Statoil
Name: Aldous and Avaldsnes
Location: Norwegian continental shelf
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

This is an addition to the previous entry above. From the link below, the total amount of recoverable oil in the two fields:

The combined Avaldsnes/Aldous Major South discoveries therefore have a gross Contingent Resource range estimate of 1.2 to 2.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Since I've already cataloged 300-800 million barrels, I'll subtract the upper and lower ranges of the previous entry from the upper and lower ranges of the entry today.

Size of discovery: 900 million - 1.8 billion barrels recoverable
Date: September 30, 2011
Company(s): Statoil and Lundin
Name: Aldous and Avaldsnes
Location: Norwegian continental shelf
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

This one is an addition to a 150 million bbl discovery cataloged in May. The WSJ article says it is 927 million boe, 75% of which is oil, and the rest gas. So that's 695 million bbl of oil-only. Then subtract the 150 million bbl cataloged earlier to get 545 million bbl.

Size of discovery: 545 million barrels recoverable
Date: November 7, 2011
Company(s): YPF
Name: Additions to YPF acreage in Vaca Muerta formation
Location: Patagonia, Argentina
API: "high quality shale oil"
Flow rate of test well(s): First 15 wells flowing 200-600 boepd
Estimated production startup date: Production just starting up
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

The article says the wells produce about 70% liquids, so I'll take 70% of the given 500 million - 1.5 billion boe range for the catalog.

Size of discovery: 350 million - 1.05 billion barrels recoverable
Date: November 14, 2011
Company(s): Anadarko
Name: Niobrara shale in the Wattenburg Field area
Location: Colorado
API: Light oil
Flow rate of test well(s): 303 - 1,103 bopd
Estimated production startup date: 11 wells already producing, ramp-up to eventual 1,200 to 2,700 wells
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 227 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: November 15, 2011
Company(s): Petronas
Name: Wakid
Location: Offshore Malaysia
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): 8,200 bpd
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

------------------------------------

This one consists of 2 discoveries: Sevier (pg. 11 on link) at 70.3 million bbl and Salinas Valley (pg. 14 on link) at 34.4 million bbl. Total is then 104.7 million bbl, rounded up to 105.

Size of discovery: 105 million barrels recoverable
Date: November 4, 2011
Company(s): Venoco
Name: Sevier and Salinas Valley portions of Venoco acreage in Monterey Shale
Location: San Joaquin Valley, California
API: "Light Oil" (pg. 7 on link)
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: Some wells already online now
LINK (PDF - pg. 11 & pg. 14)

------------------------------------

2011 Totals:

Recoverable Total: 11.581 billion barrels minimum to 14.281 billion barrels maximum
Oil-in-Place Total: 300 million barrels minimum to 300 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

2010
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 41.577 billion barrels minimum to 44.873 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 91.26 billion barrels minimum to 92.8 billion barrels maximum
2009
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 12.009 billion barrels minimum - 18.731 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 13.514 billion barrels minimum - 15.069 billion barrels maximum
-----------------------------------
2008: 24.009 billion - 27.758 billion barrels
2007: 32.32 billion - 36.85 billion barrels
2006: 10.65 - 25.9 billion barrels

[Keith_McClary]

2010
Total discoveries listed as recoverable: 41.577 billion barrels minimum to 44.873 billion barrels maximum
Total discoveries listed as Oil-In-Place: 91.26 billion barrels minimum to 92.8 billion barrels maximum

Remind me, what were the biggest discoveries contributing to the 2010 blip?

I found 2010 Crude Oil: 50 Billion Barrels Discovered, 30 used
with this Al Fin quote:

With the price of oil hovering above $70 a barrel for over a year -- and around $90 a barrel for several weeks -- oil exploration companies can get to work discovering rich new oil fields. In 2010, more new oil was discovered than was consumed -- and we can expect that trend to continue as long as oil stays high -- above fundamentals. OPEC is sitting on considerable reserve production.

Bluntly put, the world is sitting on far more crude oil than it knows what to do with at this time. Human incompetence, corruption, and lack of skilled manpower and state-of-the-art equipment chokepoints contribute to the real disconnect and lag between moment-to-moment demand and instantaneous supplies.

Political peak oil: The only kind of peak oil you will ever see, except for peak demand, when oil is no longer needed.

[OilFinder2]

^
I posted a (revised) 2010 review back in June:
LINK

[dorlomin]

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 4.5 - 5 billion barrels recoverable
Date: May 26, 2011
Company(s): Petrobras and Brazilian ANP
Name: Libra
Location: Santos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: No information, typical oil here has been about 30 degrees
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

You have not been double counting now have you.

Size of discovery: 3.7 - 15 billion barrels recoverable
Date: October 29, 2010
Company(s): ANP (and Petrobras)
Name: Libra

Instead of downgrading your estimates from last year counting the downgraded estimate again this year?

Enlighten me to the mistake I have made.

[OilFinder2]

dorlomin, read what I wrote at the top of the post at the link below - and the post immediately after it.

Libra was subtracted from 2010 (which is why I posted a revised 2010 tally), and added to 2011. Notice the new 2010 tally does not contain Libra anymore.

^
I posted a (revised) 2010 review back in June:
LINK

[OilFinder2]

And for reference, the original 2010 year-end tally was on page 26. Notice the recoverable total (especially at the upper end) is considerably higher than the revised total I posted in June.

[dorlomin]

dorlomin, read what I wrote at the top of the post at the link below - and the post immediately after it.

Libra was subtracted from 2010 (which is why I posted a revised 2010 tally), and added to 2011. Notice the new 2010 tally does not contain Libra anymore.

^
I posted a (revised) 2010 review back in June:
LINK

Here it is counted in your 2010 total.

Here it is in your 2011 total.

Same oil discovery just a down grade.

You are padding these lists out by double counting discoveries and hyping already hyped oil.

[dorlomin]

And here a billion barrels of speculating that there maybe could have might be perhaps etc etc etc

So I presume the amount listed in the new field contains some reserves added not just last year but the year before, and maybe the year before that, too. So this entry could be considered a bit of "catch up" from previous years.

1.6 billion barrels of speculation.

[OilFinder2]

Here it is counted in your 2010 total.

Here it is in your 2011 total.

Same oil discovery just a down grade.

You are padding these lists out by double counting discoveries and hyping already hyped oil.

And here it is SUBTRACTED from the 2010 total. You might want to look up the word "subtracted." Since it was SUBTRACTED from the 2010 total, there was no double-counting.

[OilFinder2]

And here a billion barrels of speculating that there maybe could have might be perhaps etc etc etc

So I presume the amount listed in the new field contains some reserves added not just last year but the year before, and maybe the year before that, too. So this entry could be considered a bit of "catch up" from previous years.

1.6 billion barrels of speculation.

No, 1.6 billion barrels of catch-up from a previous year.

[dorlomin]

And here it is SUBTRACTED from the 2010 total. You might want to look up the word "subtracted." Since it was SUBTRACTED from the 2010 total, there was no double-counting.

You showed it at the end of 2010. And then again at the end of 2011.

You lied.

The oil was already on your list and you lied by showing it on the year end total for a second time.