Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

[OilFinder2]

Looks like there was an addition to this field from last year in addition to the one announced last week, so I'll put them both together. I had already cataloged 100 million barrels from this field in 2006.

Size of discovery: 536 million barrels recoverable
Date: July 7, 2011
Company(s): DNO
Name: Additions to Tawke
Location: Kurdistan, Iraq
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 9.054 billion barrels minimum to 9.654 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Iraq Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Tawke 1 - 100 million barrels - 6/06
Miran West - 1.15 - 2.94 billion barrels recoverable - 5/09 - reclassifed as a gas-condensate field 1/26/2011
Shaikan - 1.5-3 billion barrels OIP - 8/09
Addition to Shaikan - 1.2-2.7 billion barrels OIP - 1/10
Addition to West Qurna - 22 billion barrels recoverable - 10/10
Additions to Tawke - 536 million barrels - 7/11 (and unknown date in 2010)

[ian807]

Looks like there was an addition to this field from last year in addition to the one announced last week, so I'll put them both together. I had already cataloged 100 million barrels from this field in 2006.

Size of discovery: 536 million barrels recoverable
Date: July 7, 2011
Company(s): DNO
Name: Additions to Tawke
Location: Kurdistan, Iraq
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 9.054 billion barrels minimum to 9.654 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Iraq Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Tawke 1 - 100 million barrels - 6/06
Miran West - 1.15 - 2.94 billion barrels recoverable - 5/09 - reclassifed as a gas-condensate field 1/26/2011
Shaikan - 1.5-3 billion barrels OIP - 8/09
Addition to Shaikan - 1.2-2.7 billion barrels OIP - 1/10
Addition to West Qurna - 22 billion barrels recoverable - 10/10
Additions to Tawke - 536 million barrels - 7/11 (and unknown date in 2010)

Of course we don't know the price and energy return on this stuff in aggregate, but If all of this is recoverable, it could extend the world's oil supply by a year at least. Not bad.

[pstarr]

Recoverable running total year to date: 9.054 billion barrels minimum to 9.654 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

Where is the freaking confidence interval?

[John_A]

Recoverable running total year to date: 9.054 billion barrels minimum to 9.654 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

Where is the freaking confidence interval?

OilFinder2 appears pretty confident.

[astalavista_b]

What is intresting for DNO estimates is:

Northen Europe:
Proven reserves at 2006 : 63
Proven reserves at 2010 : 3.3 ??

Kurd region of Iraq:
Proven reserves at 2006 : 58.8
Proven reserves at 2010 : 193

Huge changes!!

Ref:http://www.dno.no/Operations/Reserves-and-resources/

[OilFinder2]

Size of discovery: 300 - 800 million barrels boe recoverable
Date: August 26, 2011
Company(s): Statoil
Name: Aldous and Avaldsnes
Location: Norwegian continental shelf
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 9.354 billion barrels minimum to 10.454 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Norway Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Nucula - 300-500 million barrels - 2/07
Goliath - 1.5 billion barrels - 6/07
Exploration Well 16/1 (Luno or PL338) - 60-180 million barrels - 10/07
Storskrymten - 107 million barrels - 11/07
SW of Grane field - 30 million barrels
Well 35/11-B23-H in the Fram area - 20-40 million barrels - 01/08
PL292 (Pi North and Pi South) - 19-32 million barrels - 5/08
PL104 & nearby Theta (2 seperate prospects) - 16 million & 5 million barrels - 5/08
Jordbaer - 150 million barrels - 8/08
Draupne - 28-68 million barrels - 8/08
Dagny - 100-125 million barrels - 8/08
Additions to Dagne - 30-50 million barrels - 10/08 (Note: Not sure if this is the same as Dagny, they're spelled differently in the articles - However I treated them as the same field so this is an addition to Dagny)
Additions to Luno - 5-10 million barrels - 1/09
Dompap - 25-30 million barrels - 1/09
Curran - 3-16 million barrels - 1/09
Vigdis North-East (part of PL089) - 25 million barrels - 3/09
Gygrid - 20-30 million barrels - 6/09
Grevling - 40-130 million barrels - 6/09
Grosbeak - 35-190 million barrels - 7/09
Bream - 38-63 million barrels - 8/09
Frigg Delta - 18-35 million barrels - 10/09
Fossekall - 37-63 million barrels - 4/10
Maria - 60-120 million barrels - 7/10
Skrugard - 150-250 million barrels - 4/11
Aldous & Avaldsnes - 300 - 800 million barrels - 8/11

[babystrangeloop]

Size of discovery: 500 million - 1.2 billion barrels boe recoverable
Date: August 26, 2011
Company(s): Statoil
Name: Aldous and Avaldsnes
Location: Norwegian continental shelf
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 9.454 billion barrels minimum to 10.854 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

Not so fast. The article you linked to says:

Statoil Boosts Estimates at N. Sea Find
RigZone / August 16, 2011

Communication between the Aldous and Avaldsnes oil discoveries in the North Sea has now been confirmed. In combination these discoveries may represent an oil structure of between 500 million and 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent.

If the upper part of the interval strikes pay dirt, the discovery will be one of the ten largest oil finds ever on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Statoil has a 40% stake both in license PL 265, where Aldous was discovered, and in PL 501, where the Avaldsnes discovery was made. ...

In related news IF my bathtub turns out to be a Tardis then it MAY contain more oil than the entire planet Earth ever did.

[OilFinder2]

Hmm ...

First of all, companies typically say "may," "could" or similar language as part of standard cautionary language. That part isn't any different from any of these other discoveries. These discoveries are all about probability, not certainty.

As for the "if" part, that's a good question, but I'm not sure exactly what it means. The Statoil news release says:

[...]

As the company announced on 8 August, a minimum 65-metre oil column has been confirmed in Aldous Major South well 16/2-8 in the North Sea. The discovery was made in Jurassic sandstone in a very good quality reservoir consisting of coarse-grained, unconsolidated sand.

The well has also established common oil/water contact between the Aldous and Avaldsnes structures, and according to preliminary estimates the combined discovery in the two licences (PL 265 and PL 501) totals between 500 million and 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent. Between 200 and 400 million barrels of these resources have been discovered in well 16/2-8, with strong indications from well data of another 200 to 400 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent in the same structure, whereas a resource base of 100 to 400 barrels previously has been estimated in the Avaldsnes structure (PL 501).

The well was drilled by the Transocean Leader drilling rig, which soon will spud Aldous Major North well 16/2-9 (PL265) to clarify the further potential and any communication with Aldous/Avaldsnes. In addition the partners plan further appraisal drilling in licence PL 265 next year to clarify the full volume potential for a future development solution.

[...]

So they've confirmed communication between the two structures, but will soon be drilling another well to further confirm the communication.

Separately the two structures have:
1. 200-400 million bbl in the Aldous structure, with another possible 200-400 million.
2. 100-400 million bbl in the Avaldnes structure (note: it says "100-400 barrels" but obviously they omitted the "million" - otherwise an amount that small wouldn't be worth even sneezing at).

That puts us at a minimum of 300-800 million barrels. What I'll do is edit the entry and use that figure, and when they get confirmation from the well they're about to drill, I'll add in whatever they say with regards to that.

Statoil is a highly respected company so I doubt they're fudging numbers.

[pstarr]

So oilguy, finder, where did the oil go?

[OilFinder2]

So oilguy, finder, where did the oil go?

It went here.

[TonyPrep]

I just spotted this table of discovery and production for the years 2007-2009:

______Discoveries (Gb)___Production (Gb)
2007__10.0_____________26.0
2008__13.0_____________26.3
2009__12.4_____________25.8
Total__35.4_____________78.1

Link

This doesn't seem to match your records, Oily, and these are IHS figures.

[vtsnowedin]

I just spotted this table of discovery and production for the years 2007-2009:

______Discoveries (Gb)___Production (Gb)
2007__10.0_____________26.0
2008__13.0_____________26.3
2009__12.4_____________25.8
Total__35.4_____________78.1

Link

This doesn't seem to match your records, Oily, and these are IHS figures.

Considering that Oily is a one man show I think his discovery numbers match that table well enough and the production is easy to check by simply multiplying 85 million barrels per day times 365 days per year which gives 31GB of all liquids.
So Oily has done a bang up job of proving that peak oil approaches.
If you expect that discovery rates will decline as more of the planet gets thoroughly searched to say an average of 6GB per year over the next few decades and are optimistic about our ability to stabilise demand at current numbers then you burn your way through the current reserves of one trillion barrels by about 2060.
Of course most of that will be done on the backside of Hebert's curve and the economy will be stressed to say the least and most probably in shambles.

[TonyPrep]

I just spotted this table of discovery and production for the years 2007-2009:

______Discoveries (Gb)___Production (Gb)
2007__10.0_____________26.0
2008__13.0_____________26.3
2009__12.4_____________25.8
Total__35.4_____________78.1

Link

This doesn't seem to match your records, Oily, and these are IHS figures.

Considering that Oily is a one man show I think his discovery numbers match that table well enough

You're kidding, right? Oily posts discovery numbers that are well up to production figures, not less than half. His aim, after all, is to prove to himself that peak oil is still a long way off. In fact, discoveries have run well behind production for over 20 years.

[OilFinder2]

I just spotted this table of discovery and production for the years 2007-2009:

______Discoveries (Gb)___Production (Gb)
2007__10.0_____________26.0
2008__13.0_____________26.3
2009__12.4_____________25.8
Total__35.4_____________78.1

Link

This doesn't seem to match your records, Oily, and these are IHS figures.

How many times do we have to discuss this? I've never claimed my catalog would match IHS, or anyone else's tabulation. In all probability their methodology is totally different from mine, so in all likelihood comparing mine and IHS's listings is comparing apples and oranges.

I'm wondering how many more times we have to bring this up?

As I've also mentioned before, if I could do 2006-2007 again, I'd do those two years different. And in 2008 I did not seperate out recoverable from OIP. But the 2009 figure from IHS you listed above is not all that different from my 2009 recoverable figure of 12-18.7 billion barrels.

The next time you bring up this topic I'm not going to bother responding, because this has got to be about the half-dozenth time we've discussed it.

[Bruce_S]

So oilguy, finder, where did the oil go?

It went here.

Nice! I'm new here, and was looking around for any investment advice to take advantage of this peak oil thing, and looks like some have already figured it out!

[Bruce_S]

I just spotted this table of discovery and production for the years 2007-2009:

______Discoveries (Gb)___Production (Gb)
2007__10.0_____________26.0
2008__13.0_____________26.3
2009__12.4_____________25.8
Total__35.4_____________78.1

Link

This doesn't seem to match your records, Oily, and these are IHS figures.

Interesting that Laherrere uses discovery numbers to refute Yergin's reserves increase argument. Do you think he switched to another measure because he can't refute Yergin's claim?

[TonyPrep]

Interesting that Laherrere uses discovery numbers to refute Yergin's reserves increase argument. Do you think he switched to another measure because he can't refute Yergin's claim?

No, it was because Orlov got his quote wrong - he said discoveries instead of reserves. That's another issue, though, I posted this table to bring Oily back down to earth.

[Bruce_S]

Interesting that Laherrere uses discovery numbers to refute Yergin's reserves increase argument. Do you think he switched to another measure because he can't refute Yergin's claim?

No, it was because Orlov got his quote wrong - he said discoveries instead of reserves. That's another issue, though, I posted this table to bring Oily back down to earth.

In what way? He seems to indicate that these numbers roughly match what he can gather up using publicly available information.

[OilFinder2]

Size of discovery: 500 million - 1.2 billion barrels boe recoverable
Date: August 26, 2011
Company(s): Statoil
Name: Aldous and Avaldsnes
Location: Norwegian continental shelf
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

[...]

Not so fast. The article you linked to says:

Statoil Boosts Estimates at N. Sea Find
RigZone / August 16, 2011

Communication between the Aldous and Avaldsnes oil discoveries in the North Sea has now been confirmed. In combination these discoveries may represent an oil structure of between 500 million and 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent.

If the upper part of the interval strikes pay dirt, the discovery will be one of the ten largest oil finds ever on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Statoil has a 40% stake both in license PL 265, where Aldous was discovered, and in PL 501, where the Avaldsnes discovery was made. ...

In related news IF my bathtub turns out to be a Tardis then it MAY contain more oil than the entire planet Earth ever did.

Here's an update of this one. As I suspected, the numbers in my original post were conservative.

This is the addition. From the link below, the total amount of recoverable oil in the two fields:

The combined Avaldsnes/Aldous Major South discoveries therefore have a gross Contingent Resource range estimate of 1.2 to 2.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Since I've already cataloged 300-800 million barrels, I'll subtract the upper and lower ranges of the previous entry from the upper and lower ranges of the entry today.

Size of discovery: 900 million - 1.8 billion barrels recoverable
Date: September 30, 2011
Company(s): Statoil and Lundin
Name: Aldous and Avaldsnes
Location: Norwegian continental shelf
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 10.254 billion barrels minimum to 12.254 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Norway Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Nucula - 300-500 million barrels - 2/07
Goliath - 1.5 billion barrels - 6/07
Exploration Well 16/1 (Luno or PL338) - 60-180 million barrels - 10/07
Storskrymten - 107 million barrels - 11/07
SW of Grane field - 30 million barrels
Well 35/11-B23-H in the Fram area - 20-40 million barrels - 01/08
PL292 (Pi North and Pi South) - 19-32 million barrels - 5/08
PL104 & nearby Theta (2 seperate prospects) - 16 million & 5 million barrels - 5/08
Jordbaer - 150 million barrels - 8/08
Draupne - 28-68 million barrels - 8/08
Dagny - 100-125 million barrels - 8/08
Additions to Dagne - 30-50 million barrels - 10/08 (Note: Not sure if this is the same as Dagny, they're spelled differently in the articles - However I treated them as the same field so this is an addition to Dagny)
Additions to Luno - 5-10 million barrels - 1/09
Dompap - 25-30 million barrels - 1/09
Curran - 3-16 million barrels - 1/09
Vigdis North-East (part of PL089) - 25 million barrels - 3/09
Gygrid - 20-30 million barrels - 6/09
Grevling - 40-130 million barrels - 6/09
Grosbeak - 35-190 million barrels - 7/09
Bream - 38-63 million barrels - 8/09
Frigg Delta - 18-35 million barrels - 10/09
Fossekall - 37-63 million barrels - 4/10
Maria - 60-120 million barrels - 7/10
Skrugard - 150-250 million barrels - 4/11
Aldous & Avaldsnes - 300-800 million barrels - 8/11
Additions to Aldous & Avaldsnes - 900 million-1.8 billion barrels - 9/11

[OilFinder2]

This one is an addition to a 150 million bbl discovery cataloged in May. The WSJ article says it is 927 million boe, 75% of which is oil, and the rest gas. So that's 695 million bbl of oil-only. Then subtract the 150 million bbl cataloged earlier to get 545 million bbl. Looks like they're giving it a name now, too.

Size of discovery: 545 million barrels recoverable
Date: November 7, 2011
Company(s): YPF and Repsol
Name: Additions to YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation ("Loma La Lata field")
Location: Patagonia, Argentina
API: "high quality shale oil"
Flow rate of test well(s): First 15 wells flowing 200-600 boepd
Estimated production startup date: Production just starting up
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 10.799 billion barrels minimum to 12.799 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 400 million barrels minimum to 400 million barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Argentina Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation - 150 million barrels - 5/11
Additions to YPF/Repsol acreage in Vaca Muerta formation ("Loma La Lata field") - 545 million barrels - 11/11