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Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 14:52:03



It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era. The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile. Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules. The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway. On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn't matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation. Bob Lutz is a former vice chairman


Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 14:54:49

First Tony Seba see's it. Now the ultimate car advocate sees it.

But can the zealots of oil-poclypse dogma accept the obvious when it comes to the end of their malthusian doom based wet dreams?

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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 15:59:57

Well, to be honest, Lutz called global warming a crock, so I don't think his opinion will move people off the sidelines.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 16:06:22

asg70 wrote:Well, to be honest, Lutz called global warming a crock, so I don't think his opinion will move people off the sidelines.


Lutz is no more a climate expert than I am. But when it comes to cars, what people buy, how they use them, how to sell them to folks...that is his purview. I was quite surprised by him saying this, I noticed it in the news before it popped up here, methinks he has sniffed the wind and detects something amiss from the good ol' days.

The very idea of autonomous auto's dooms as big a chunk of his industry as it does oil and gas drilling probably. Sure, both will continue, but they won't look anything like the size and scope they are today.

I'm going to start saving now, and when used Vipers come down in price because there aren't any buyers, I'm going to buy one just to park in the driveway to make a statement. A race red Viper sitting there in a world of little self driving pod looking cars, whisking their occupants silently and cleanly here and there.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 16:17:24

And people think sub-prime in '07-'08 was a problem. Wait until the vast numbers of Uber and Lyft drivers are all out of work, and can't pay their mortgages. Wait until the good paying delivery jobs at UPS are all gone, and those people can't pay their mortgages. No more truckers. I was looking at the comments for this article on the front page. Many people doubt this will ever happen. So, on the plus side, it's another opportunity to place a big short.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 16:21:49

evilgenius wrote:And people think sub-prime in '07-'08 was a problem. Wait until the vast numbers of Uber and Lyft drivers are all out of work, and can't pay their mortgages.


Yeah, from that vantage point, why don't perma-doomers join the bandwagon? As long a there's a way to spin the future in a negative, then it's all good, right? But associate robo-taxis with the preservation rather than destruction of BAU and no no no no no no, it can't ever come to pass.

The irony is that standard peak-oil theory is associated with not just peak-oil but peak technology. You know, olduvai theory. We'll revert to stone knives and bear skins. It wasn't supposed to involve a robot-induced employment crisis.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 21:54:43

A few short years ago Lutz was pushing E-85 vehicles, now he is pushing EV's and when the 'next big thing' shows up I expect he will be pushing that as well.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 22:05:09

evilgenius wrote:And people think sub-prime in '07-'08 was a problem. Wait until the vast numbers of Uber and Lyft drivers are all out of work, and can't pay their mortgages.


Sort of like the luddite angle, with Uber and Lyft rather than buggy whip manufacturers and farriers?

evilgenius wrote: Wait until the good paying delivery jobs at UPS are all gone, and those people can't pay their mortgages. No more truckers. I was looking at the comments for this article on the front page. Many people doubt this will ever happen. So, on the plus side, it's another opportunity to place a big short.


Could be! I wonder how those buggy whip manufacturers and farriers made out, shorting cars?
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 22:07:18

Tanada wrote:A few short years ago Lutz was pushing E-85 vehicles, now he is pushing EV's and when the 'next big thing' shows up I expect he will be pushing that as well.


The guy who convinced people to buy gas guzzler monster car can't be all bad. Plus I've owned some of those E-85 capable machines, so he must have done okay in getting those ones out the door as well. But it does seem a bit against his self interest, pushing the end of the thing he has a lifetime promoting.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 22:27:18

Tanada wrote:A few short years ago Lutz was pushing E-85 vehicles, now he is pushing EV's and when the 'next big thing' shows up I expect he will be pushing that as well.

Tesla's Hyperloopy?
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Cog » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 22:51:41

Tesla's hyperloop track has been less than successful unless you count the hype part.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 23:28:55

Bob Lutz is on the PBS business show right now predicting the end of car ownership in 20 years. I don't have any problem with the idea that AI robots will be driving taxi cabs in the near future---but the 20 year timeline for the end of individual car ownership seems too fast to me.

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Robot cab drivers reporting for work

I really disagree with the contention that as soon as driverless cabs are on the road, everyone will immediately get rid of their own cars, and switch to only using the robot cabs. Some of us like driving our own cars. Some of us even like to get on a motorcycle and ride it and steer it ourselves. If you have a driver's license and you own a vehicle, why do you even need an autonomous driverless cab?

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Some of us like riding our motorcycles---why would we need autonomous cabs?
Last edited by Plantagenet on Wed 08 Nov 2017, 00:51:08, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 23:57:32

Plantagenet wrote: Some of us like driving our own cars.


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plantagenet wrote: Some of us even like to get on a motorcycle and ride it and steer it ourselves.
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Some of us like riding our motorcycles.



But not slow like that incompetent giraffe.

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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 00:07:21

Tanada wrote:A few short years ago Lutz was pushing E-85 vehicles, now he is pushing EV's and when the 'next big thing' shows up I expect he will be pushing that as well.

That's my thought. If Lutz is to be listened to, why did GM consistently produce such miserable quality (and generally still does) compared to brands like Toyota and Honda, especially when durability is considered?

If building a huge company that needs to be bailed out by government and produces, overall, below average cars is a qualification for being listened to, we've sunk awfully low.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 00:58:12

Market research seems to show everyone wants everyone else to be in automated transport, while everyone wants to be in control of their own. In other words, there's no market, except for blind & otherwise disabled folks & parents sending kids to school.

Btw, Uber & Lyft drivers don't even make minimum wage, they aren't paying mortgages.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby baha » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 05:13:42

Why does everything have to be black or white? I don't want to give up my autonomy either...

Suppose you could drive your own car as long as you are rural. When you enter a major highway and the traffic level picks up the robot takes over...or maybe just keeps you from doing something stupid.

Or maybe your personal transport can only go 35 mph and has a range of 50 miles. But you can still go to Lowes and pick up some solar panels or haul a load of gravel to that mudhole in the driveway. When you need longer range you call up an Uber?

There are so many grey areas here I could go on all day. Transition is a process. There is no final result, it just keeps changing. Here in the US we have some input into the changes. Lutz is clearly not a visionary, he is just reacting to the momentum. The people to listen to are the ones pushing the changes.

I don't let the world tell me what to do. I only go in a direction I am comfortable with. I vote with my money and I will build a manual EVW. But I would be OK with catching a Lyft to Washington DC occasionally :)
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 08:25:48

baha wrote:....maybe your personal transport can only go 35 mph and has a range of 50 miles.....


My cars and motorcycles all are much better then that now. Why would anyone (other than an EV fanatic) want to swap the vehicles we have now for crappier vehicles with highly restricted range and poorer performance?

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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby baha » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 08:52:13

Because the gas to put in it is too expensive...and the PV powered EV is free :)

Just sayin'
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 08:55:50

Plantagenet wrote:Why would anyone want to swap the vehicles we have now for crappier vehicles with highly restricted range and poorer performance?


They will swap them when they don't deem them crappier. FUDsters will always deem them crappier but those opinions are worthless to this debate.

Oh, and a select few will switch to EVs out of concern for the environment. Won't be you, of course. Your concern begins and ends with your rhetoric.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby baha » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 09:08:36

Let's have an oil shortage...due to lack of exploration. Prices go out of sight and TPTB decide to treat everyone fairly and implement rations.

I will charge my EVW from my own solar. I know exactly how much range I have available when I leave the house. I don't have to search for a station with gas or wait in line for who knows how long while sitting on empty.

Who has range anxiety now?
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