[Newfie]

Well, as they say, they are NOT marine experts. As such they should keep their mouth shut least they prove themselves fools.

They checked online AIS reports. Big deal. It doesn't even show what is past about 70 miles of the coast. IF it is reporting correctly.

So they know NOTHING!

Please don't try to bring facts into this discussion. Thanks

I could not get on to the site for quite a while.

Above I cited the first ship I saw. Indeed from Jahwarlee(sp?) Nehru, India.

Further down the coast, going in and of Savanah, were other ships going to and from distant ports including China and LaHarve, France.

These ships travel at roughly 17 knots or about 20 mph. AIS only reaches out about 70 miles. So you see the last 3 to 4 hours of a voyage. Some of these ships, especially those going trans Atlantic and trans Pacific are very large. It doesn't take a whole gang of them arriving daily to move a lot of goods.

Yes we are in a recession, perhaps spiraling into a deflationary spiral (unless there is war in the ME?) But this is a baseless and silly claim.

[GoghGoner]

So the meaningful negative news is likely more related to oil flow slowing, since a decline of under 2% for consumer goods isn't all that much. If that downward trend accelerates for, say, six more months, that would be a lot more concerning.

So I see that rail traffic is valid material for this thread. But not airline miles or GDP, since we're discussing economic growth? What is your criteria for deciding what is a "valid" economic growth topic? Only negative news, perhaps?

Yes, the main decrease in rail traffic is energy related. Coal production has been off 10% just itself in the past few weeks. Mild winter, etc...

I think bulk shipments via air (if there is such a thing) would be a valid contribution to the thread. Not sure how passenger miles relates.

You are also creating a strawman and knocking it down. I didn't say that the fall in BDI would cause any change in our day-to-day lives so calm down and stop arguing about nothing. I do say that the BDI is an important economic indicator and the possibility exists that the BRICs have now dragged the developed countries into a recession. I hope it isn't a very deep recession if there is one since I have bets on BAU for the time being.

[Revi]

I just read some place that the amount of shipping has increased 4 fold since the early 1990's. It makes sense. That's around the time our town got a Wal-Mart, and the internet took off. We live in a world of easy merchandise. Our tiny town turned into another node in the global system. So did thousands of other places all around the world.

We are seeing a slowdown in an impossible to maintain growth curve. I was in Greece around 2004, and we took a trip to Aegina. Half the way there we were in a gigantic ship parking lot, with huge cargo ships moored for 20 miles. They were idled by the Iraq war I think.

This kind of thing exists all over the world. Time to move on to the next kind of shipping:

http://fairtransport.eu/ships/grayhound/

[Newfie]

There must be a missprint on the specs, cargo capacity is 4.5 tons? I think we can handle that much or damn near.

[Newfie]

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) – The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying industrial commodities, slumped to an all-time low on Wednesday as gloom over global demand and too many ships for hire continued to batter prospects.

The overall index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk cargoes including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, was down 8 points, or 1.99 percent, at 394 points – below 400 points for the first time – and the lowest level in records that date back to January 1985.

“Dry bulk shipping is in the throws of a generational recession,” said Ben Nolan of brokerage and investment bank Stifel. “The recovery in demand no longer appears to be a 2016 event and even 2017 is in question.”

http://gcaptain.com/2016/01/13/hope-fad ... pf-tPkrLV0

[Outcast_Searcher]

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) – The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying industrial commodities, slumped to an all-time low on Wednesday as gloom over global demand and too many ships for hire continued to batter prospects.

The overall index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk cargoes including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, was down 8 points, or 1.99 percent, at 394 points – below 400 points for the first time – and the lowest level in records that date back to January 1985.

“Dry bulk shipping is in the throws of a generational recession,” said Ben Nolan of brokerage and investment bank Stifel. “The recovery in demand no longer appears to be a 2016 event and even 2017 is in question.”

http://gcaptain.com/2016/01/13/hope-fad ... pf-tPkrLV0

How closely should we follow the advice of an investment "expert" who doesn't know that throws isn't throes (the word he meant, given the context).

I see this more and more, where people use a completely different word that sounds the same or similar to the correct word. (And not just casual internet posters. Supposed journalists; i.e. English majors. Supposedly well educated people like CEO's). It makes me wonder. Do people even write papers in school any more? Do teachers correct them, or does everyone get an "A" (i.e. a symbolic trophy) for turning something in?

And before you say poor educations don't matter, that's a huge impact on why high school graduates in the US have such poor job prospects -- lack of meaningful educations to deal with technology.

...

So gee, go figure. Commodities are deep in the ditch and a LOT of dry bulk shipping was added to the global fleet in recent years. Thus the BDI is continuing to decline. Why is anyone surprised?

[dolanbaker]

The news media appears to have eliminated a whole layer of editors who would have picked up this type of spelling error the type that pets past spell checkers as the word is spelled correctly but the context is incorrect.


PS I know about the typo but the spell checker missed it (I just left it there)

[Newfie]

The news media appears to have eliminated a whole layer of editors who would have picked up this type of spelling error the type that pets past spell checkers as the word is spelled correctly but the context is incorrect.


PS I know about the typo but the spell checker missed it (I just left it there)

I also use that excuse a lot.

[Revi]

The Baltic Dry Index is down 8 today again to 317. Soon the shipping companies will be paying people to ship things.
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.BADI

[MonteQuest]

Today saw the freight index hit a new milestone crashing through the 300 barrier for the first time ever to 298, 50% below the previous record low.

[dolanbaker]

Isn't this a case of too many ships as opposed to a collapse in trade?

[MonteQuest]

Isn't this a case of too many ships as opposed to a collapse in trade?

How do you get one without the other? Has there been a ship building spree?

[Newfie]

Isn't this a case of too many ships as opposed to a collapse in trade?

How do you get one without the other? Has there been a ship building spree?

In fact there was, based in the expectation of ever more growth. Ditto the Panama Canal, China's proposed Nicagura canal, Brazil/China trans Continential railway, and expanded Suez Canal.

But there is also a dearth of shipping.

Ol 1-2 punch.

[Newfie]

No time to read myself.

Look here....
http://gcaptain.com/vesselsvalue-dry-bu ... rPbbPA8KrU

Fleet growth is of particular interest in the current climate. It is universally acknowledged that one of the root causes of the trough is tonnage oversupply. In 2015 Capesize new orders fell by 89% year-on-year. Only 2.8m deadweight tons were inked compared to 2014’s mammoth 26.8m. So fleet growth is slowing, however until issues of oversupply are directly addressed then a recovery is off the cards. Owners’ survival will be decided by their cost efficiency strategies, the age of their fleets and the depth of their wallets. Current talk spans between cold layup and scrapping.

[Newfie]

It seems a major Korean shipping firm has filed bankruptcy. Looks like there could be some fallout.

"The events of the last few days arguably represent the biggest ever threat to the supply chain and could bring down hundreds of businesses and service providers in countries around the world."

http://gcaptain.com/hanjin-captains-ord ... oid-arrest

"The cost of shipping a 40-foot container on the Busan-Los Angeles route has jumped about 55 percent, from $1,100 to around $1,700, according to South Korea-based freight forwarder Pantos Logistics. Rates between South Korea and the U.S. east coast via Panama have risen about 50 percent to $2,400, it added"

http://gcaptain.com/more-hanjin-ships-s ... ners-fret/

[GoghGoner]

Thanks for making me aware, Newfie. What a mess!

Roosters coming home. If commodity prices suck, we should be in a global recession, however, negative interest rates have thrown any historical analysis in the toilet.

Global demand and trade have suffered since the 2008 recession, while steamship lines continued to build more and larger vessels — immense ships that were conceived as cost-effective when freight costs were higher several years ago.

But weaker trade and overcapacity have sent ocean shipping rates plunging in recent years. A few months ago, Poskus said, prices hit historic lows globally — down to as much as $600 per container from Shanghai to Los Angeles.

That wouldn't even cover fuel costs for the huge ships, he said.

[Newfie]

Yes, the industry is in turmoil pretty much across the board. There is a new thread on societal collapse early warning signs. This would fit right in.

[Tanada]

Thanks for making me aware, Newfie. What a mess!

Roosters coming home. If commodity prices suck, we should be in a global recession, however, negative interest rates have thrown any historical analysis in the toilet.

Global demand and trade have suffered since the 2008 recession, while steamship lines continued to build more and larger vessels — immense ships that were conceived as cost-effective when freight costs were higher several years ago.

But weaker trade and overcapacity have sent ocean shipping rates plunging in recent years. A few months ago, Poskus said, prices hit historic lows globally — down to as much as $600 per container from Shanghai to Los Angeles.

That wouldn't even cover fuel costs for the huge ships, he said.

If it doesn't cover the costs of the super cargo carriers with their economies of scale the smaller ship owners are really hurting. Thing people so often forget, a ship with 40,000 containers uses the same size crew as a ship with 4,000. The biggest cost for shipping is labor, not fuel, or at least that has been the case historically.

[ennui2]

Yes, the industry is in turmoil pretty much across the board. There is a new thread on societal collapse early warning signs. This would fit right in.

Read back in the thread, which started all the way back in 2008, for all the past hysterics. This emphasis on BDI is a red herring.