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Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Nov 2015, 19:27:06

That begged question eats at me.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 24 Nov 2015, 11:12:47

It is up a little the last few days- a dead submarine bounce?

But down 60% in one year - last major peak was at end of 2013 with the index over 2 330, but also many low points close the range the Index is now in.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 16 Dec 2015, 16:23:07

Dang it, China! You need to get pumping that money harder.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 4.7 percent to 484 points, the lowest in Baltic Exchange data starting in January 1985. Rates for three of the four ship types tracked by the exchange retreated. China, which makes about half the world’s steel, is on track for the biggest drop in output for more than two decades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Synapsid » Wed 16 Dec 2015, 21:33:04

GoghGoner,

Were oil tankers one of the four types of ship? I'd read that rates for them were quite high because of all the production that's keeping the oil price low.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Synapsid » Wed 16 Dec 2015, 21:35:07

GohgGoner,

Oops. If it's the Baltic DRY Index I guess there won't be oil tankers on it.

I claim advancing maturity in my defense.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 16 Dec 2015, 22:43:33

We are all getting older...

The dirty index or vlcc rates indicate oil tanker demand. Last I heard oil tankers rates were doing okay since investors are storing quite a bit out at sea right now.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 16 Dec 2015, 22:49:18

Link to related story. As far as I know the tanker rates are high as they are being used as static storage tanks.

This same site has an article on the Baltic Dry Index.

http://gcaptain.com/return-to-sender-di ... nIiGno8KrU
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 05 Jan 2016, 12:30:01

Messed up market place. You wonder when the pain in some sectors will spill over.

Baltic Dry Ship Index Tumbles to Fresh Record Amid China Turmoil

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of the cost of transporting commodities, plunged to a record amid signs of slowing economic growth in China that’s also hurting the nation’s stock market.

The index retreated 1.1 percent to 468 points, tumbling below a previous record low set in December. Rates declined for all except one of the vessel types monitored. China moved to support its sinking stock market after a $590 billion sell off as state-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled a selling ban on major investors will remain beyond this week’s expiration date, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 05 Jan 2016, 13:25:21

GoghGoner wrote:Messed up market place. You wonder when the pain in some sectors will spill over.

Baltic Dry Ship Index Tumbles to Fresh Record Amid China Turmoil

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of the cost of transporting commodities, plunged to a record amid signs of slowing economic growth in China that’s also hurting the nation’s stock market.

The index retreated 1.1 percent to 468 points, tumbling below a previous record low set in December. Rates declined for all except one of the vessel types monitored. China moved to support its sinking stock market after a $590 billion sell off as state-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled a selling ban on major investors will remain beyond this week’s expiration date, according to people familiar with the matter.

Markets react to supply and demand. With a commodity glut blindingly obvious, given current prices of many commodities -- and a lot of new ships coming online in recent years, a low BDI isn't surprising at all.

Cherry picking one number to project general economic doom doesn't work well, of course -- though the fast crashers on this site tend to keep trying endlessly.

As long as real global GDP, global airline miles travelled, etc. continue to trend solidly upward, then global economic growth is occurring. That does NOT mean it is sustainable in the long run, of course.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 05 Jan 2016, 15:31:02

Outcast_Searcher wrote:As long as real global GDP, global airline miles travelled, etc. continue to trend solidly upward, then global economic growth is occurring. That does NOT mean it is sustainable in the long run, of course.


BDI is an important economic indicator. One can search the internet for a million economic research papers on that subject. To dismiss the low number as oversupply is silly. We all know that China is in contraction. At least we should know it if we have an opinion on the subject of BDI (maybe some people have opinions but they aren't really based on any factual data? shocking).

China

Chinese manufacturing surveys showed that any hope for a recovery in the sector were premature, with factory activity contracting for a 10th consecutive month in December and at a faster pace than in the previous month.


India

Manufacturing shrinks for 1st time in over 2 years: PMI survey


US

Recent manufacturing releases have missed expectations, and the negative trend continued on Monday. ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key indicator, slipped to 48.2 points, well short of the forecast of 49.1 points. This weak reading is raising concerns, since it marks back-to back releases below the 50-point level, which separates expansion from contraction. It is also the sixth consecutive month that the PMI has softened. As well, ISM Manufacturing Prices dipped to 33.5 points, well below expectations.


ETC

Real GDP growth is also an important indicator. One could start a thread on that and debate what the number is or what it should be since it may be politically biased.

Airline miles? Can you link to some economic papers on the value of such a number?
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 17:11:01

BDI still sinking. US rail shipments cratered, too.

Five Days Down: Baltic Dry Index Falls Again to Fresh Low


Bank of America: Rail Traffic Is Saying Something Worrying About the U.S. Economy

"Carloads have declined more than 5 percent in each of the past 11 weeks on a year-over-year basis. While one-off volume declines occur occasionally, they are generally followed by a recovery shortly thereafter. The current period of substantial and sustained weakness, including last week’s -10.1 percent decline, has not occurred since 2009."
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 18:12:44

GoghGoner wrote:Real GDP growth is also an important indicator. One could start a thread on that and debate what the number is or what it should be since it may be politically biased.

Speaking of bias, if ignoring the valid reasons I point out about why the BDI is likely low so you can convince yourself it must mean imminent economic doom isn't bias, what is? Or if the oft-repeated cry of the fast crashers that economic statistics they don't like must be biased is objective, we may as well give up economics. We can use how the fast crashers "feel" about economic data.

Airline miles? Can you link to some economic papers on the value of such a number?

Well, the MSM and sites that track overall global economic growth refer to it. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see there is a likely correlation between a demand for rapid long distance travel (like business trips and family vacations, to name two blindingly obvious examples) and global economic well being.


http://www.statista.com/topics/1151/passenger-airlines/

I'm not an economist, so I don't follow "economic papers" closely. Do you? However, I do consider real world broad economic statistics more meaningful than denial of anything that doesn't point to constant economic doom from those who root for a fast crash. To each his own.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Mon 11 Jan 2016, 18:39:33, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 18:21:39

pstarr wrote:One number. Kidding?

Most of Europe (West, East, Baltic and Mediterranean sans Germany and a few socialist Scandinavian states), Japan, all of Africa, the ME and probably South America, Indonesia (did I miss anything), Southeast Asia (most of the middle class in the USA) is mired in the Greatest and Final Depression of All Time. And here you are monkeying around the edges? Outcaste. Outcaste you are an OUTCASTE, for dog's sake. Do not listen to the mainstream cheerleading section of your media.

Calling slow but sustained economic growth overall a depression is no more valid than calling a dog a baseball bat. Great sport for fast crashers, but aside from producing lots of incorrect forecasts and general economic sad talk in the doomer echo chamber, not worth much.

Do you have a meaningful citation for your claim? Remember, it's not the spring of 2009 for nearly 7 years now.

I case you've been missing it, the MSM has been more correct on its economic calls than the fast crashers a good 90% of the time for the past three plus decades (as long as I've been paying much attention). Rational people would call reporting the facts on the ground reporting, and the wishing for a fast crash cheerleading for economic doom, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 18:24:36

GoghGoner wrote:Bank of America: Rail Traffic Is Saying Something Worrying About the U.S. Economy

"Carloads have declined more than 5 percent in each of the past 11 weeks on a year-over-year basis. While one-off volume declines occur occasionally, they are generally followed by a recovery shortly thereafter. The current period of substantial and sustained weakness, including last week’s -10.1 percent decline, has not occurred since 2009."

I saw this today. This one is puzzling and IMO, somewhat worrying. It seems to contradict the general recent jobs picture in the US. However, from the article we also have:

Of course, many would argue that a shift away from coal-powered energy, a slowdown in the industrial sector, and the petering out of the U.S. shale boom would naturally lead to fewer goods being moved by rail. Hoexter and his team, however, suggest that the slowdown is spreading to more consumer-oriented segments. Intermodal carloads typically related to consumer goods were up 1 percent in the first quarter of 2015 and 3.6 percent in the second quarter but fell 1.7 percent in the final quarter of last year.

So the meaningful negative news is likely more related to oil flow slowing, since a decline of under 2% for consumer goods isn't all that much. If that downward trend accelerates for, say, six more months, that would be a lot more concerning.

So I see that rail traffic is valid material for this thread. But not airline miles or GDP, since we're discussing economic growth? What is your criteria for deciding what is a "valid" economic growth topic? Only negative news, perhaps?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 18:42:44

China's Premier Le: We'll let market forces fix overcapacity
"We will let the market play a decisive role, we will let businesses compete against each other and let those unable to compete die out," the state-run Beijing News quoted Li as saying. "At the same time, we need to prioritize new forms of economic development."

China needed to set ceilings on steel and coal production volumes and government officials should use remote sensing equipment to check companies, the premier also said, according to the article, which was re-posted on the State Council's website.

link

China is confounding the West because things that the West takes for granted are considered not desirable in China. For instance China is not interested in growth per se. In this sense they are not Capitalists. They are not focused on wealth production. Do not want Globalization. Do not want 'Consumerism'.

They want just enough industry to produce what THEY need, just enough resource use to get the job done. China takes the long view, and the long view in China is very, very long.

The West assumed that the resource build-up in China from overseas acquisitions was a prelude to massive expansion. Actually, they were just filling the larder to over brimming against future need.

China's next step will be modernization and R&D. And helping their neighbors achieve self-sufficiency, and freedom from the West.

While they cannot close themselves off from the West, They can drive the West out by not playing by Western rules or according to Western expectations. Western tendrils in China will wither and die.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 19:24:44

Do you have a meaningful citation for your claim? Remember, it's not the spring of 2009 for nearly 7 years now


It's not my claim, but zerohedge is reporting this today:

Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving.

This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... -come-halt
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 19:44:45

Well, as they say, they are NOT marine experts. As such they should keep their mouth shut least they prove themselves fools.

They checked online AIS reports. Big deal. It doesn't even show what is past about 70 miles of the coast. IF it is reporting correctly.

So they know NOTHING!

Edit..
So I checked, Marine Traffic just now, and there is a big container ship coming into Port Elizabeth, I think. From IN NSA which I believe to be some place in India. British flag. Left December 21.
Last edited by Newfie on Mon 11 Jan 2016, 20:29:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Cog » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 20:08:51

Newfie wrote:Well, as they say, they are NOT marine experts. As such they should keep their mouth shut least they prove themselves fools.

They checked online AIS reports. Big deal. It doesn't even show what is past about 70 miles of the coast. IF it is reporting correctly.

So they know NOTHING!


Please don't try to bring facts into this discussion. Thanks
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 23:02:51

Rod_Cloutier wrote:
Do you have a meaningful citation for your claim? Remember, it's not the spring of 2009 for nearly 7 years now


It's not my claim, but zerohedge is reporting this today:

Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving.

This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... -come-halt

Really? You're going to cite zerohedge? They report economic disasters that don't occur multiple times a week on average. Since about April of 2009, they have had nearly zero credibility, given the track record of their dire predictions which routinely come to naught.

But I get it. They spout the message fast crashers constantly want to hear.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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