Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Pops » Tue 14 Feb 2012, 17:46:36

pstarr wrote:The BDI suggests world manufacturing demand is down compared to reasonable expectations made several years ago.

Yes; expectations, normalcy bias, asset inertia. That's the best explanation I've seen.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 12 Jan 2014, 03:58:33

"Baltic Dry Index Collapses 35% - Worst Start To Year In 30 Years"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-1 ... r-30-years
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5571
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Synapsid » Sun 12 Jan 2014, 17:36:42

ralfy,

Thanks for the link.
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 21:21:50

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 10 Feb 2014, 23:58:03

"Does drop in key shipping index predict global slowdown"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6eKJj5kt3c
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5571
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 11 Feb 2014, 01:28:49

Y'know it's funny, when the BDI went from about 800 in early June to 2330 in mid-December, I didn't hear the doomers telling us the economy was going blockbusters. :roll:

And now that it's going back down again, complete with doomers telling us that's portents of some imminent doom, they seem incapable of reading the past 3 years or so in this thread to refresh their memories on the 2 or 3 other times the BDI has "crashed" over that time ... complete with doomers, once again, telling us it was portents of imminent economic doom. :roll: But guess what? The imminent economic doom they were hoping for never arrived.

Did the doomers ever learn from that? No, of course not.

Breaking news, folks: The BDI is meaningless as an economic indicator.

Not that they'll pay attention to that fact, mind you. When it goes up again they'll completely ignore it. But then when it goes back down they'll stop by here - once again - and tell us it's portents of imminent economic doom, just as they had the previous 3 or 4 times (all of which were wrong). :roll:

And FYI, you know why it's gone down again lately? Here's why:
The weakness in Capesize rate reflects a poor supply and demand balance for Capesize vessels. Largely, analysts and shipping experts have attributed this weakness to the Chinese New Year holiday, when manufacturing activity slows down. Naturally, there’s less business for commodity exporters.

But the problem isn’t just weakness in commodity demand. As mining firms in Australia and Brazil face heavy rains and storms, mining activity and port activities can grind to a halt. Tighter export rules in Colombia and restrictions in ore exports from Indonesia didn’t help either, although these are expected to be just temporary issues, while Indonesia’s export ban’s negative impact on the minor bulk trade could linger. As a result, rates have fallen more than just seasonality demands.

Yup, there's your economic portent of doom: Chinese New Year! And rains in Australia and Brazil. :lol: LOL!!!! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Scrub Puller » Tue 11 Feb 2014, 06:16:24

Yair . . . ca whats the lag time? At the moment most Australian mining areas are in drought.

Cheers.
Scrub Puller
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 296
Joined: Sun 07 Apr 2013, 13:20:59

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 11 Feb 2014, 21:56:55

"Shipping industry sees an end to five-year downturn"

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/0 ... B820140206

"Goldman Explains How Economic Weakness Has Spread Across The World In Recent Months"

http://www.sfgate.com/technology/busine ... 217299.php
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5571
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 14 Jun 2014, 12:16:40

"The Baltic Dry Index Is Having Its Worst Year Ever"

At 906, the Baltic Dry Index slumped to 12-month lows showing absolutely no signs whatsoever of the Q2 renaissance in global growth that has been heralded by all the highly-paid meteoroconomists.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-1 ... -year-ever
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5571
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 01 Feb 2015, 21:57:07

"The index that timed the 2008 crash perfectly just slumped to a 3-decade low"

http://www.businessinsider.com/baltic-d ... ash-2015-1
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5571
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 11:34:54

"Baltic Dry Shipping Index Drops to All-Time Low"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... owth-slump
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5571
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 12:20:10

Brazil Mine Disaster Drives Bulker Rates Below Cost

Freight rates for capesize bulk carriers could drift lower next week as Brazil's Samarco iron ore mine disaster and uncertain ore demand from China weigh on cargo volumes, brokers said.

That comes as capesize charter rates from Brazil to China on Wednesday hit their lowest level since December 2008.

"I'm afraid things could get even worse in the short term," said Ralph Leszczynski, head of research in Singapore at ship broking house Banchero Costa (Bancosta).

"Sentiment about Chinese demand, by far the largest importer of iron ore, is just terrible at the moment," he said.

The disaster at the BHP Billiton Samarco iron ore mine on Nov. 5, where dams holding back waste material collapsed flooding two states and killing at least 11 people, could reduce Brazilian iron ore exports, brokers said.

"About 3.5 million tonnes may be cut from iron ore exports in December (as a result of the disaster)," said a Singapore-based capesize ship broker.

Ships that were chartered to load cargo had their fixtures cancelled and have flooded back into the market, worsening the ship supply glut, the Singapore broker said.

"The capesize market is not looking pretty at all," he added.

"Any shortfall in exports from Brazil to Asia is likely to be met by increased exports by Australian iron ore producers such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton rather than other South American or Scandinavian miners," said Konstantinos Papazoglou, research analyst at Bancosta.

"This will reduce tonne-mile demand, creating more shipping capacity, putting more pressure on freight rates."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
User avatar
vox_mundi
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3939
Joined: Wed 27 Sep 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Revi » Thu 19 Nov 2015, 21:23:36

The index was down to around 504 at some points today, Thursday.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 20 Nov 2015, 13:54:48

Below 500, all time record

Article on GCaptain
http://gcaptain.com/baltic-dry-falls-be ... time-ever/

Also some oil support vessels being laid up.
http://gcaptain.com/deep-sea-supply-10- ... e-to-come/

But tankers are at a premium, as a storage facility.
http://gcaptain.com/tanker-rate-spike-d ... k9fH3arT5w
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18458
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Revi » Sun 22 Nov 2015, 22:28:51

The Baltic Dry Index was almost at 12,000 before it crashed down to 600 something in 2008. It is pretty volatile, but it has never been as low as it is now since its inception in 1985.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 22 Nov 2015, 23:57:46

Yeah, makes one wonder about the true state of the world economy.

Deflation?
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18458
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 23 Nov 2015, 02:26:27

I suspect that it is more to do with overbuilding infrastructure (too many ships) during the boom times and now we have more than enough to go around.

They are all available for use and vying for trade!
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3855
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 23 Nov 2015, 09:05:52

dolanbaker wrote:I suspect that it is more to do with overbuilding infrastructure (too many ships) during the boom times and now we have more than enough to go around.

They are all available for use and vying for trade!


I am not sure how that works for Ocean shipping but I grew up on the Great Lakes and around here it has the same effect as a contraction does on the Airlines. The oldest or least efficient equipment gets sold off for scrap or turned into museum displays or things to that effect.

That doesn't happen over night, it takes up to three years to sell off the excess ships. The ships here are size limited if they travel from the upper lakes to Lake Ontario and out to the Atlantic by the size of the locks on the Welland Canal and Saint Lawrence Seaway so they center around two classes. The largest ships travel the four upper lakes while the smaller vessels travel all five lakes and the Atlantic Ocean. Because of modern designs the ships all have about the same number of crew to operate even though the larger ships carry substantially more cargo. The Merchant Marines who are all licensed through the Coast Guard as I understand it can shift from lake work to sea work just by moving to a different port but the 'salties' don't always get along with the 'lakers' because when their is a downturn everyone is looking to keep their job. The ones who do best IMO are the ones who 'winter over' as salties from December-April when the Great Lakes are frozen in. A couple long voyages in that period can keep the money flowing.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17050
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Nov 2015, 09:11:10

Yes, long build lag times are a factor. But you know, that's also what they were saying in 2008. Should have adjusted by now. I'm sure there is some excess capacity to over building. I just don't think it is all the answer. I suspect there is deflationary pressure, global recession, behind it.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18458
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby sjn » Mon 23 Nov 2015, 09:18:42

dolanbaker wrote:I suspect that it is more to do with overbuilding infrastructure (too many ships) during the boom times and now we have more than enough to go around.

They are all available for use and vying for trade!

That begs a question doesn't it? There is no doubt we've just seen the greatest boom in extraction of all commodities human civilisation has ever seen. So is this part of the normal cycle of developmental progress toward the stars, or have we just Peaked on a massive debt bubble resulting in the most extreme mal-investment and economic distortions there will ever be?
User avatar
sjn
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1332
Joined: Wed 09 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Location: UK

PreviousNext

Return to Geopolitics & Global Economics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests