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Asia Has Reached Peak Growth

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Asia Has Reached Peak Growth

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 18 May 2011, 09:23:15

Wrestling With a Lack of Liquidity
Saxo Bank / Daily Forex Fundamentals / May 18, 2011


The Chinese slow-down factor

The key conclusion from my Asian visit last week was that Asia has reached peak growth. This entails refocusing on social dimensions and a wish to engineer a soft-landing. I’m confident that China will avoid a hard landing but more skeptical than consensus on how China will fair in terms of growth in the second half of 2011 and in 2012. Inflation will continue higher, precisely because China is currently witnessing peak growth and hence production capacity levels are at extremes where the pool of cheap labour has almost been exhausted and electricity and energy resources overall are at a maximum price level.

China hasn't stopped slowing down.
Economists Predict At Least One More Rate Hike
Liu Li / WSJ blogs / May 18, 2011


China ‘s long-running campaign to tighten monetary policy may have a little more life in it with economists expecting the People’s Bank of China will raise interest rates at least one more time this year, a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires showed Wednesday.

Every time the do another rate hike the the Yuan strengthens toward the value of the Dollar. This makes cheap Chinese exports less cheap and therefore reduces the demand for them.

Plus the Chinese Housing Bubble Popped.
China Economic 'Facade' Starts to Show Cracks: Chanos
By: Jeff Cox / CNBC / May 18, 2011


Though the nation has been looked on as a key driver of global economic growth, Chanos for months has been sounding warning signals about China and the precarious nature of its economic surge. He said a recent visit by members of his investment team found a slowdown in housing sales as well as a decline in prices.

"The cracks are spreading in the facade," he said. "You're seeing real estate firms shutter, sales offices closed down. Some of the engine behind the boom is at least beginning to sputter."
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Re: Asia Has Reached Peak Growth

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Wed 18 May 2011, 14:45:35

China has overbuilt everything. The cash has been sunk into PP&E (property, plant & equipment), and those investments simply go poof. A manufacturing bubble is just like any other bubble.
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Re: Asia Has Reached Peak Growth

Unread postby yeahbut » Wed 18 May 2011, 15:59:43

PrestonSturges wrote:China has overbuilt everything. The cash has been sunk into PP&E (property, plant & equipment), and those investments simply go poof. A manufacturing bubble is just like any other bubble.


I have been wary of "China's Impending Doom" stories ever since read I read "The Coming Collapse of China" way back in 2001! Obviously it can't go on forever, but China has certainly confounded the predictions of many, over and over again.
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Re: Asia Has Reached Peak Growth

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 18 May 2011, 23:24:43

Another part of Asia no one has any doubt about.

Japan falls back into recession
By Mure Dickie in Tokyo / FT / May 19, 2011


Japan slipped back into recession after the economy contracted sharply in the first quarter, underscoring the vulnerability of the world’s third-largest economy which has been battered by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Gross domestic product fell 0.9 per cent in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, according to preliminary government data, even though the natural disaster struck Japan less than three weeks before the end of the period.

... Damage to Fukushima Daiichi and other nuclear and conventional power stations means regional utility Tokyo Electric Power may have insufficient capacity to meet peak summer demand in the economically-crucially capital and its industrial hinterland.

On Wednesday, Banri Kaieda, economy and trade minister, said that along with supply chain disruption and possible power shortages that had forced the government to request users cut demand by 15 per cent, the economy was also threatened by rising international fuel prices. ...
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Asia’s energy landscape in 2018

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 18:26:29


The dynamics of Asia’s energy landscape is changing fast as prices – from crude oil to LNG – are staging a sharp recovery. What kind of pressure Asian importers will face in 2018? Will there be demand destruction? Are we going to see a change in supply patterns? The S&P Global Platts Asian oil news and analysis team has put together a series of outlook stories that delves deeper into what’s in store for the region’s oil and gas sector in 2018. OIL China's product exports set to rise as Beijing eases restrictions China's oil product exports are expected to grow at a healthy rate in 2018, after a modest rise in 2017, as Beijing relaxes restrictions amid strong lobbying by state-owned oil companies and a forecast increase in refining capacity of around 1 million b/d this year. Read more China's LPG demand



Asia’s energy landscape in 2018
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Asia Has Reached Peak Growth

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 16 Jun 2018, 10:17:11

https://srsroccoreport.com/areas-of-the ... -collapse/
Underscoring, that Asia and Europe may be most vulnerable to collapse because of their large dependence on net oil imports
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Asia Has Reached Peak Growth

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 16 Jun 2018, 10:32:42

onlooker wrote:https://srsroccoreport.com/areas-of-the-world-more-vulnerable-to-collapse/
Underscoring, that Asia and Europe may be most vulnerable to collapse because of their large dependence on net oil imports


Death, taxes, and Onlooker linking to doomer blogs in failed appeals to authority. Those are the three certainties in this world.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Asia Has Reached Peak Growth

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 16 Jun 2018, 13:05:56

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://srsroccoreport.com/areas-of-the-world-more-vulnerable-to-collapse/
Underscoring, that Asia and Europe may be most vulnerable to collapse because of their large dependence on net oil imports


Death, taxes, and Onlooker linking to doomer blogs in failed appeals to authority. Those are the three certainties in this world.

Actually, quite humorous. :lol: Seriously, though Asg, do you buy into PO at all? The Export land model? Or do you just think the repurcussions will take decades to manifest? If so it begs the question why do you chose to frequent PO.COM?
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