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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Are people dumb for not getting peak oil?

Poll ended at Wed 23 Jul 2008, 05:02:54

Yes, they are ignoring the most important issue of our time.
44
54%
No, the people have enough to deal with in their lives
19
23%
I'm too busy shopping to deal with this poll.
2
2%
Peak Oil I'm just trying live from day to day!
4
5%
Its the oil companies they have plenty of oil!
0
No votes
I'm too busy stockpiling weapons, food and ammo.
7
9%
Don't you watch TV everyone says oil prices will come down.
6
7%
It's the liberals we have plenty of oil in Alaska!
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 82

Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 21 Apr 2018, 15:19:46

Baha, you claim to have "kicked my butt", yet somehow it escaped my notice that we were in any way in contention.

I too have enjoyed gardening over the years. Enough so to understand the huge gap between what I can grow and what I actually eat. I also love to go to the local Farmer's Markets, but even that consumes all too much of my time. I buy the majority of my food at Costco in bulk sizes, and still go to the Supermarket.

I don't actually have to work any more, but that does not mean that I have the time, the skills, or the space to grow my own food. Few people would, even following TEOTWAWKI. Living in the sticks - which pretty much describes my Nantucket home in the Pine forest - will not change that.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 21 Apr 2018, 17:09:24

And to repeat what I just had to post under "Peak Oil News" that reveals there are some inside of Peak Oil (not mentioning names, of course) still are clueless despite having been explained reality numerous time:

From the peanut gallery: “The next thing the world is going to wake up to is that the 10 mm barrels the U.S. is producing isn’t oil – it is condensate…that doesn’t meet domestic refinery demand of 17 mm barrels per day of REAL oil.”

That is not the truth. It’s the same foolishness repeated from the same foolish statements of others. And typically made by those too lazy to do the readily available research about the US refining industry. So again, for the umpteenth time: CONDENSATE IS OIL. It is light oil typically graded as an API of 40 or lighter. And condensate/light oil is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL to the refining industry. Refineries that have for may years processed BLENDED OIL with a gravity very close to 31.5 API.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RAPUS2&f=A

IOW US refinery run at an optimum level with BLENDED OIL with a gravity around 31.5 API. A blended oil made by mixing light oils, such as condensate, with heavy oils, such as those that make up a significant % of US oil imports. Almost 68% of oil imports range from 30 API to less then 20 API. IOW US oil imports are dominated by HEAVY OILS.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_ipct_k_a.htm

In fact, those BILLIONS OF BBLS of dilbit the US has imported from Canada has a gravity of only 23 API. And its gravity was only that light because the bitumen had first been blended with condensate/light oil in Canada. Without blending to make dilbit it could not have been pumped down pipeleines. Thus the term “dil (diluted) + bit (bitumen) = dilbit. Diluted with condensate/light oil. Hundreds of millions of bbls of condensate/light oil imported from the US since Canada produced only about 70% of what was needed.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RAPUS2&f=A

Heavy oils, such as imports from Canada and Venezuela, have no use for US refineries without being blended with condensate/light oil. Prior to the shale boom the US had to import condensate/light oil to blend with domestic and imported oil. Just as east coast Canadian refineries have been importing Eagle Ford condensate for years to blend with their heavy oil imports.

If you don’t believe the Rockman’s words here the straight poop directly from Reuters in 2015. From

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-ref ... IV20150227

“While the qualities of crudes vary widely, U.S. refiners have discerning requirements. The average density of crude processed in U.S. refineries has been steady, varying by only 3 degrees over the last three decades, or about 17 kg per cubic metre, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. refiners like to process crudes averaging around 30-32 degrees API, or between 865 and 875 kg per cubic metre (link.reuters.com/vys24w). Refineries achieve this remarkably steady performance by blending crudes to achieve a combined feed as close as possible to the ideal. Bakken, at just 815 kg per cubic metre, is much lighter than the 865-875 kg refineries are trying to achieve. Eagle Ford is lighter still.

U.S. refiners have responded to the rising output of very light domestic crudes by cutting back purchases of other light oils from abroad while importing more heavy crudes to keep the average density roughly constant. Strict blending requirements explain why U.S. imports of light oils from countries such as Nigeria have dwindled to almost nothing while refiners import record quantities of much heavier oil from Canada.

In fact, Western Canadian Select (WCS) is the perfect complement for shale oil production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford. WCS is around 55 kg per cubic metre heavier than refiners would like on average, while Bakken is around 55 kg too light, so they blend perfectly with one another (link.reuters.com/jat24w).”
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby baha » Sat 21 Apr 2018, 17:15:15

Of course your right KJ. We are not in contention. I enjoy taunting you because I respect you.

I don't expect you to grow a garden, going to the farmers market is good. You meet the nicest people :) That should be the norm for everyone instead of the exception. I guess I just want people to think about the choices they make and appreciate the energy glut we live in.

Thanks Rockman :)
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 22 Apr 2018, 12:49:04

baha - "...and appreciate the energy glut we live in.". Your comment makes me wonder how many Americans realize that. And that "glut" has nothing to do with how much oil/energy the world is producing or if oil is selling for $30/bbl or $100+/bbl. The glut is the glutonous consumption of energy by Americans compared to the rest of the world. Most Americans think they have suffered thru energy shortages at different periods over the last 6 decades or so. They really have no idea of how a true shortage would effect their lives. I've worked in countries where losing electricity X hours almost every day was common and considered a normal part of life. Or sitting in line waiting for a delivery of diesel or propane to show up...some times for a couple of days.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 22 Apr 2018, 17:00:37

The RM is right as usual.
Let’s say you live in a developed country and you’re concerned about your carbon footprint. You’re aware that the world generates and uses about 575 exajoules of energy a year, and that there are 7.632 billion people on the planet. Not wanting to be an energy hog, you do a quick calculation to figure out your fair share. You come to a sobering realization: One round-trip flight from San Francisco to Rome and you’re done.

Just that one flight “would blow your energy budget for the year,” says Maarten Wetselaar, Director of Integrated Gas & New Energies at Shell International Exploration and Production. “No more electricity” use. “No more heating in the winter. No more air conditioning in the summer.”


Remainder is at: https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/sxsw-2018-energy-and-tech-executives-envision-the-carbonfree-future
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 22 Apr 2018, 20:09:11

Do you know what wealthy people did before A/C to avoid the sweltering heat of summer? The truly wealthy built a 'summer cottage' on the nearest mountain they could find. Then around June 1st when the planting was done and the peons and manager could handle weeding the crops for the summer they moved to their mountain retreat and they stayed there for three to four months, where the fresh cool mountain was just as effective as modern A/C. The problem is while this works for the wealthy the raising of food still requires someone to stay on the farm tending the livestock and weeding the crops all summer. Not to mention the manufacturers that existed even back in colonial days who made everything from pewterware to silver tea sets to chairs and mattresses or what not. Most of those facilities were in cities and towns with a good river or creek to provide the water power to run the machinery.

I point these things out to express that our ancestors were just as intelligent as you are, or even more so, and they figured out the strategies to make the best of the world they lived in with the resources they had, just like you do. I expect our descendants will be as smart or smarter than we are and they shall do the same.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 22 Apr 2018, 21:38:26

Interesting input, Tanada. My plan is Summers in Wisconsin on the shore of Lake Michigan. (With A/C, of course.) Then Winters on Nantucket Island.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 23 Apr 2018, 00:33:08

ROCKMAN wrote:baha - "...and appreciate the energy glut we live in.". Your comment makes me wonder how many Americans realize that. And that "glut" has nothing to do with how much oil/energy the world is producing or if oil is selling for $30/bbl or $100+/bbl. The glut is the glutonous consumption of energy by Americans compared to the rest of the world. Most Americans think they have suffered thru energy shortages at different periods over the last 6 decades or so. They really have no idea of how a true shortage would effect their lives. I've worked in countries where losing electricity X hours almost every day was common and considered a normal part of life. Or sitting in line waiting for a delivery of diesel or propane to show up...some times for a couple of days.


The U.S. has the most powerful army in the world. Just as civilians are bombed, and countries are filled with depleted uranium, before the U.S. faces any real scarcity many other countries are going to wish they were at least Venezuela. Right now babies die day after day while most of the world resources are diverted one way or another to the U.S. so someone can get a cheap brand new phone. When things go south, you might see some countries reach 99% depopulation before the U.S. faces scarcity.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 18:55:38

Darian S wrote:-snip-
The U.S. has the most powerful army in the world. Just as civilians are bombed, and countries are filled with depleted uranium, before the U.S. faces any real scarcity many other countries are going to wish they were at least Venezuela. Right now babies die day after day while most of the world resources are diverted one way or another to the U.S. so someone can get a cheap brand new phone. When things go south, you might see some countries reach 99% depopulation before the U.S. faces scarcity.


I just don't understand your comment. The US does not take things by force. We buy goods and commodities on the open market. We generally pay more than do other countries, which is why we get the greater share.

We are also a country where the population spends about 6% of our income on groceries, and 9.2% or so if one includes restaurants and fast food joints and roach coaches and other prepared foods. In a world where people starve because they can't afford to buy the food, because growing food is much more expensive without oil, we will in fact starve last. But even if food costs only triple, there will either be actual starvation in the USA, or some form of government intervention to prevent starvation, because the lowest income 20% of our population are spending a third of their income to eat, with very little of that spent in a restaurant.

That's the way money works, and it has nothing to do with weapons or war.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 20:22:31

KaiserJeep wrote:I just don't understand your comment. The US does not take things by force. We buy goods and commodities on the open market. We generally pay more than do other countries, which is why we get the greater share.


Yes, but what if that country doesn't want an open market? Regime change.
Last edited by Tanada on Tue 24 Apr 2018, 21:32:54, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 21:40:11

That comment lacks context and specificity. What would you be talking about? Got any actual evidence, or just paranoia?
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Darian S » Wed 25 Apr 2018, 14:21:26

KaiserJeep wrote:
Darian S wrote:-snip-
The U.S. has the most powerful army in the world. Just as civilians are bombed, and countries are filled with depleted uranium, before the U.S. faces any real scarcity many other countries are going to wish they were at least Venezuela. Right now babies die day after day while most of the world resources are diverted one way or another to the U.S. so someone can get a cheap brand new phone. When things go south, you might see some countries reach 99% depopulation before the U.S. faces scarcity.


I just don't understand your comment. The US does not take things by force. We buy goods and commodities on the open market. We generally pay more than do other countries, which is why we get the greater share.

We are also a country where the population spends about 6% of our income on groceries, and 9.2% or so if one includes restaurants and fast food joints and roach coaches and other prepared foods. In a world where people starve because they can't afford to buy the food, because growing food is much more expensive without oil, we will in fact starve last. But even if food costs only triple, there will either be actual starvation in the USA, or some form of government intervention to prevent starvation, because the lowest income 20% of our population are spending a third of their income to eat, with very little of that spent in a restaurant.

That's the way money works, and it has nothing to do with weapons or war.

Right now Syria, word is need of a pipeline not chemical weapons were the real reason for bombing there. Afghanistan, also needed a pipeline, and conveniently an attack occurred that happened to justify military action. ISIS, the U.S. arms and aids them to further their interests.

IF the U.S. must deal with and aid nasty regimes it will, if it needs puppet dictators it will put them there, it will arm terrorists and bomb civilians to secure resources for the well being of the nation. And that is in good times, and only what we see from the light, not the shadows.

If the world market becomes unable to provide for all, as most nations fall, we will have secured access to the dwindling resources, and minimize as much as possible the loss in quality of life for as long as possible.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 25 Apr 2018, 14:57:02

Darian - The US doesn't consume a disproportionate share of the world’s energy because we have a powerful military. First, one big reason is that the US produces more energy then any other country. Second, we are able to outbid any other country for oil imports except for China. And China beats us by less the 2%. BTW the US produces about 3X as many Btu's as Saudi Arabia. I doubt many folks realize that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... production

But even those numbers are not a completely valid explanation. If you count the Canadian oil exports to the US as part of our “domestic energy production” the US is by far the largest energy producer in the world. Canada has little choice but to sell to the US until they develop an export infrastructure.

Sometimes it makes more sense to just collect the FACTS instead of looking for conspiracies and political or military maneuvers to explain resource distributions. The US is the Energy King because we PRODUCE AND BUY a shitload of energy. People forget that the US is the largest producer of NG on the planet…about 15% more then #2 Russia. As a result the US is the #2 electricity generator on the planet. And we are the second largest oil buyer behind #1 China. But only about 5% less. Is China #1 because they have their military scattered across the globe like the US? Obviously not. How about #3, India? Is it using its military to intimidate oil exporters? LOL.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 25 Apr 2018, 16:12:33

RM, you reminded me of something from my childhood:

“The facts mam, just the facts.”

― Sgt Joe Friday Dragnet series
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Darian S » Fri 27 Apr 2018, 08:07:42

ROCKMAN wrote:Darian - The US doesn't consume a disproportionate share of the world’s energy because we have a powerful military. First, one big reason is that the US produces more energy then any other country. Second, we are able to outbid any other country for oil imports except for China. And China beats us by less the 2%. BTW the US produces about 3X as many Btu's as Saudi Arabia. I doubt many folks realize that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... production

But even those numbers are not a completely valid explanation. If you count the Canadian oil exports to the US as part of our “domestic energy production” the US is by far the largest energy producer in the world. Canada has little choice but to sell to the US until they develop an export infrastructure.

Sometimes it makes more sense to just collect the FACTS instead of looking for conspiracies and political or military maneuvers to explain resource distributions. The US is the Energy King because we PRODUCE AND BUY a shitload of energy. People forget that the US is the largest producer of NG on the planet…about 15% more then #2 Russia. As a result the US is the #2 electricity generator on the planet. And we are the second largest oil buyer behind #1 China. But only about 5% less. Is China #1 because they have their military scattered across the globe like the US? Obviously not. How about #3, India? Is it using its military to intimidate oil exporters? LOL.


The U.S. has exported a lot of manufacturing, a lot of the energy china uses is merely to create goods for which the U.S is the primary market, which is why a good portion should be counted as U.S energy consumption abroad.

That the U.S. has goody goody relations with Saudi Arabia is not in question. That they've meddled with the middle east, in part to secure resources, is not in question.

I didn't say all the U.S. resources are due to military action, but know that the creation and maintenance of the military is for a purpose. To protect our assets, including allies, abroad and secure the well being of the nation. If push comes to shove, we will move in the light and in the shadows to protect our interests.

When there's a piece of bread left, and most are barely standing thin and starving and there's a big muscular guy with all the guns, don't expect him to play nice and starve too.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby charmcitysking » Wed 23 May 2018, 07:34:04

Many thanks to AdamB for bumping a ten year old thread and sparking off a wonderful discussion. :-D

Baha, I really enjoyed reading the debate between yourself and KJ - in particular, I appreciated your argument that if you close your mind off to certain things, they can never materialize (re human reliance on FF and creating a renewable energy infrastructure).

My question is: What are your thoughts on a sustainable earth carrying capacity? I often discuss this topic with a friend of mine (who is a molecular biologist) and he argues that if FF can be used to create a renewable energy infrastructure, the planet could sustainably carry 10+ billion people. I'm not a scientist and in my amateur opinion, I would tend to keep the thought that the world is so dependent on FF for modern agriculture that even the current global population is unsustainable (similar to KJ's line of thinking).

I was just wondering what your thoughts on the topic might be, considering you're actively working to effectively end the use of FF.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 24 May 2018, 11:12:14

Charm – “…a sustainable earth carrying capacity?” When I see such phrases I notice the level of lifestyles is seldom mentioned. How do you view that factor? IOW given the poverty and health problems prevalent in the world today do you consider us at a “sustainable level” TODAY? If not, looking back when you say the world was last at a sustainable level?

IOW if you were a typical African living in poverty would you consider your life very sustainable? If yes the world has a long way to go before it reaches an “unsustainable level”, right?
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 24 May 2018, 11:47:48

Here is a simple calculation. Global Footprint network says we are using 2.9 times the renewable resources. Let’s call it 3 for easy math. Human population is 7.6 billion.

7.6/3 is 2.5 billion. That the maximum we can sustain given the current distribution of usage.

That does NOT include non-renewable resource depletion, neither does your friend because he magically gets around that by building nuclear plants. It in any case that provides a maximum.

Now the bloke who figured that out also, quietly, notes it’s a pretty optimistic figure because the things NOT included in his equation (eg, non-renewable exhaustion) all work to lower that figure.

Bottom line is optimistically is somewhere below 2.5 billion.
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 24 May 2018, 17:26:51

'Bottom line is optimistically is somewhere below 2.5 billion."
And it is optimistic not just because of a less healthy nourishing planet but the unavoidable mayhem CC is bound to cause. And also the very real threat of widespread nuclear meltdowns in the wake of economic collapse. Finally, our negative impact on the planet is NOT over. I believe Tanada said we will burn anything we can to maintain our lives and relative well being. Not to mention continuing to clear cut forests to get more arable land. Sorry to sound like Scrooge
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Re: Are people outside of Peak Oil just dumb?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 24 May 2018, 19:00:05

Problem is to some extent Scrooge was right.
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