Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
ROCKMAN wrote:"...would put the oil delivery in Japan not Rotterdam." Looking at the map the route appears to be a two way street running from England to Alaska. Unless, of course, someone put up a "Do not enter" sign at Norway. LOL. http://www.dianaswednesday.com/wp-conte ... -Route.jpg
A warming Arctic will see ice-free conditions for as long as 125 days each summer by the middle of the century, increasing the likelihood for commodity shipping, according to a new report by the U.N. climate panel.
The Arctic has warmed at about twice the global rate in the past three decades, contributing towards record low sea ice in the summer of 2007 and again in 2012.
Ice-free summers could open up new, trans-Arctic shipping through the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route over northern Canada and Russia.
“The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is predicted to have up to 125 days per year suitable for navigation by 2050,” said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in a leaked report due to be published next Monday.
The NSR is open for about 50 days at present.
“Increased shipping associated with the opening of the NSR will lead to increased resource extraction on land and in the sea, and with two-way commodity flows between the Atlantic and Pacific,” the IPCC said.
Shipping accounts for 80% of world trade by volume and about 3% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Shorter shipping routes could therefore cut both emissions and the costs of trade.
The IPCC report, leaked online, is the second of a three-part publication on climate change.
The latest report focuses on expected climate impacts, following an analysis of the evidence for manmade climate change, published last September.
he navigation season for transit passages on NSR starts approximately at the beginning of July and lasts through to the second half of November. There are no specific dates for commencement and completion of navigation; it all depends on particular ice conditions. In 2011 the navigation season on the NSR seaways for large vessels constituted 141 days in total, i.e. more than 4.5 months. In recent years quite easy ice conditions have been observed and that offers more considerable opportunities for operation at the NSR seaways. All NSR seaways are currently located in the area of one-year ice. In the arctic conditions one-year ice grows approximately up to 1.6 metres. Arktika-type icebreaker can open passages through up to 2.3m thick ice. In early July, at the beginning of navigation ice is not pressurized. The ice is broken and easily moved through. In September and October the NSR seaways can be completely free of ice. The vessel may have the same speed as in the open waters. A voyage from Cape Zhelaniya in Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Strait can be travelled at the speed of 14 knots within 8 days. In November the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea are covered with new ice up to 30sm that allows for safe pilotage of a vessel supported by an icebreaker. Therefore, in the current ice conditions vessels can navigate from July until December.
The Global Ice Center at Weathernews Inc. announced that the Northern Sea Route (NSR) bordering Russia is open to commercial shipping traffic as of August 21, 2014 – two weeks earlier than last season, when lower than average temperatures resulted in slow pace of melting in the Arctic Ocean. Last summer, the northeastern passage opened at the beginning of September.
Meanwhile, large areas of sea ice still remain in the northwestern passage along the Canadian coast. Based on analysis of satellite images by the Global Ice Center (GIC), ice experts at Weathernews predicts this too should melt away by early September, thus opening the other passage for vessels.
The NSR has been in use by vessels escorted by Russian icebreakers since late June. However, enough ice has melted north of the New Siberian Islands (Novosibirsk) to allow vessels to pass through the region with minimal risk of collision from now until early October, according to Weathernews’ Global Ice Center.
Use of the NSR by the shipping industry as cost-saving alternative route continues to grow in recent years. Weathernews established the Global Ice Center in 2008 to provide enhanced voyage planning services to the shipping industry. The Japan-based company calls the ice advisories it provides to vessels sailing the Arctic and other icy areas, Polar Routing Service.
The shipping industry has been eager to adopt the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to the Panama and Suez canals to save voyage time and operating costs. As a result, the need for more detailed and accurate information on conditions in the Arctic Ocean has been increasing over the last few years. The Voyage Planning team and Global Ice Center at Weathernews have been answering these needs since 2011 with Polar Routing Service. For the past two open seasons, Polar Routeing Service has supported about 20 voyages via the NSR. Most of these have sailed through the northeastern passage on the Russian side. However, last year Weathernews provided Polar Routeing support service to the first ever voyage in modern maritime history via the Northwestern passage along Canada.
Through Polar Routeing, shipping companies operating voyages through icy waters get briefings from Risk Communicators at Weathernews other digital content that covers maritime weather conditions expected on the voyage including wind speed/direction, wave height, air pressure and sea temperature in addition to information concerning the distribution and thickness of ice from the Global Ice Center. Currently, Weathernews plans to enhance support for safe voyages through the Arctic with data from their own compact satellite, WNISAT-1R. The new satellite is scheduled for launch next summer to monitor conditions along the NSR
http://www.adn.com/article/20141205/coast-guard-proposes-bering-strait-shipping-routeWASHINGTON -- With global warming leading to increased traffic to a vulnerable Arctic, the U.S. Coast Guard is proposing a 4.6-mile wide shipping route through the Bering Strait to try to protect the region.
Any accident in the sensitive area can be a major problem and traffic has increased tremendously, so the Coast Guard mapped out a voluntary two-way route — akin to a highway for ships — said agency project officer Lt. Kody Stitz.
"We see more traffic and envision more traffic to continue," Stitz said.
Last year ships went through the Bering Strait 440 times, twice what it was in 2008, according to a study in the journal Marine Policy.
Retired Coast Guard Vice Admiral Roger Rufe, former operations chief for the Department of Homeland Security, said that's an indication that climate change has made the region more passable for ships, with ships able to sail through formerly icy waters during more months in the year. He said shippers like the route because it can provide a shorter and quicker way to go from Europe to Asia.
But the ice melting also "means that ice is more unpredictable and the weather is far worse because the ice is what keeps the waves down," said Marilyn Heiman, U.S. Arctic director for the Pew Charitable Trusts and co-author of the Marine Policy study. More than just shipping routes is needed, she said.
That increased traffic in the Bering Strait traverses rough waters, far from help, where the environment is pristine and oil spills and other accidents can have serious consequences, Rufe said.
"An oil spill up there would be really devastating," Rufe said.
This type of route is typical around far busier ports and would be the first one in the Alaska region, Stitz said. But the route leading up to and through the Bering Strait is several hundred miles long, much bigger than others.
At the same time the Coast Guard is charting the route, diplomats are meeting in Peru to work on an international treaty to battle global warming.
"We have serious changes happening in the Arctic," Heiman said. "Climate change is impacting people's lives, people's safety."
After four years of increased use of the Northern Sea Route by vessels going in transit between Europe and Asia, 2014 saw a steep downturn. The amount of cargo transported in transit dropped 77 percent compared to last year.
Newfie wrote:After four years of increased use of the Northern Sea Route by vessels going in transit between Europe and Asia, 2014 saw a steep downturn. The amount of cargo transported in transit dropped 77 percent compared to last year.
http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/20 ... eted-16-12
Other interesting story on new icebreakers, seems Russia will remain far ahead of the West on this front.
http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/20 ... aker-21-11
An official from Russia's port association expects Russia to increase the volume of shipments made via its Arctic ports to 115 million tons per year.
Russia is currently modernizing its existing port facilities and constructing new terminals in the Arctic. These efforts are expected to raise the port capacity of Russian Arctic ports from 72 to 115 million tons-worth of cargo per year over the next 15 years, according to RosMorPort Deputy Director Sergei Antonov.
"In 2013, the capacity of the ports in the Arctic Basin was estimated at 72 million tons per year, while the actual turnover consisted of only 46 million tons; that is, only 60 percent of the ports' existing capacity was in use," Antonov noted. He added that "today we are seeing changes in the structure of cargo turnover," including "an increase in the transshipment of dry cargo. The bringing in of materials for the construction of the Sabetta port in Yamal made a significant contribution to these figures."
The Russian energy giant's investments in the Arctic region's development may reach $500 billion in the next 20-25 years, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Friday.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russian energy giant Rosneft will invest some $500 billion in the exploration of the Arctic over the next 20-25 years, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Friday.
"Rosneft alone will invest about $500 billion within the next 20-25 years," Novak said during an international youth forum in Russia dedicated to the study of the Arctic region.
Synapsid wrote:Hi Subjectivist.
"do the same" in what way?
Do you mean in using the Northern Sea Route, north of Eurasia, or in using the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic?
The International Maritime Organization is a UN-sponsored body that sets shipping rules for oceans. Last fall, it gave preliminary approval to a series of environmental measures.
It's scheduled to take a final vote on those measures this week and they are expected to pass. They include a ban on the discharge of oil, oily water or noxious chemicals.
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