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Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: Northwest passage may be new way to ship Alaskan oil

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 19:46:08

Tonight I went through the archived seaice images for September 15 for each year from 1988 to 2008. In a handful of years or less the Northeast passage was open, the Northwest passage was only open in two of them, 07 and 08.

By open I mean ice free to the extent that a regular ship, not hardened for ice and not escorted by an ice breaker, could make the journey safely.

I will go back through the last 20 years for the date September 7 when I get the chance just to make sure I didn't miss anything significant, but given that in the last two year the passage has opened in late August and closed in early October, September 15 seemed like a reasonable date to survey.
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Re: Northwest passage may be new way to ship Alaskan oil

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 18:38:47

Tanada wrote:
Tanada wrote:Looking at the visible light sea ice satalite views Northwest Passage & Northeast Passage for Sunday October 5th it is clear that both passages are still nominally navigable by commercial shipping.

According to NSIDC 25Aug2008
The United States National Ice Center confirms that Amundsen's Northwest Passage is navigable. The AMSR-E data furthermore indicate that the Northern Sea Route (also called the Northeast Passage) is open.


This means that the passages have both been navigable for 41 days as of yesterday. In 2007 only the Northwest passage opened, that occured 21AUG2007. The NSIDC report for 14OCT2007 indicates that no ice free route remained open as of that date. Therefore in 2007 the Northwest passage alone opened and was open about 50 days. In 2008 BOTH passages opened and are still both navigable after 41 days. I will keep an eye on them and see when each closes for the year.

For the last two years the Northwest Passage has been open for at least the last week of August, all of September and the first week of October.


Based on visible light imagry it appears that the Northeast passage closed yesterday, October 8th. From August 25th to October 7th is 43 days unless I miscounted somewhere, which is six full weeks and a day. The southern branch of thre Northwest passage remains open as of that date (yesterday).


The Northwest passage is now closed so I went back and reviewed the visible light sat images and I am confident that any standard ships could have used the North East passage from August 25 to October 6, 2008, and the North West passage from August 25 to October 11, 2008. After those dates an ice hardened ship could still make it through for a few days, but to be for my purposes when a regular freighter won't risk it for fear of damage the passage is closed. 31-25=6+30+6=42 days for the North East passage and 6+30+11=47 days for the North West passage. That is six weeks of arctic passage availibillity in 2008. That isn't quite as long as the 2007 period, but it certainly is long enough to be worth exploiting.
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Re: Northwest passage may be new way to ship Alaskan oil

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 20 Dec 2008, 08:19:04

It appears that Commercial Shippers are more eager to exploit the Northwest Passage than I gave them credit for.

I didn't see one cube of ice!
CBC News wrote:The Canadian Coast Guard has confirmed that in a major first, a commercial ship travelled through the Northwest Passage this fall to deliver supplies to communities in western Nunavut.

The MV Camilla Desgagnes, owned by Desgagnes Transarctik Inc., transported cargo from Montreal to the hamlets of Cambridge Bay, Kugluktuk, Gjoa Haven and Taloyoak in September.

"We did have a commercial cargo vessel that did the first scheduled run from Montreal, up through the eastern Arctic, through the Northwest Passage to deliver cargo to communities in the west," Brian LeBlanc of the Canadian Coast Guard told CBC News.

Surprise!
George Bryson wrote:BARROW -- It's not that easy for hundreds of outsiders to suddenly sneak up on Barrow, considering how the northernmost town in the United States has neither a port nor a road to help them get here. Newcomers pretty much have to arrive on a big noisy plane.

Which is why nearly everyone in this historic Inupiat community was surprised last fall when they woke up to find about 400 German tourists walking around town. How the heck did they get here?

The answer?

They sailed from Europe to Barrow the short way -- via the suddenly ice-free Canadian Arctic -- after the fabled Northwest Passage opened completely last summer for the first time in recorded history.
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Re: Northwest passage may be new way to ship.

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 31 May 2009, 08:50:42

I know it is silly to speculate freely but I needed the mental break after the week I have had. If the Arctic breakup is as rapid and extreme as some people on PO believe it will be then the passages will open up well before the end of August, which is when it occurred in 2007 and 2008. So what say you all, when will the passages open this year? Will they even open at all this year?
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Re: Northwest passage may be new way to ship Alaskan oil

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 31 May 2009, 09:28:21

:o Silly? Speculate? Oh why not .The admission is free.
Lets see,, There is open water to Resolute but the straights to the west of there are jammed with second year fast ice.
I'll place my $2.00 bet on it not being open as you have defined it before August 25 -09. 8)
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Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 09 Nov 2010, 07:01:48

But the strongest interest for the Northern Sea Route is no longer among Arctic explorers. The Russian and international shipping industry see the ongoing climate changes and the retreating of the summer ice-cap in the Arctic as a new opportunity. The distance from Europe to Asia is much shorter when sailing north instead of using the Suez channel or sail around Africa. Shorter sailing route save time and save fuel. In other words; save money. Also, the Arctic is free of pirates....&

But, when the future history of the Arctic will be written, 2010 will be marked off as the breakthrough year for commercial shipping along the Northern Sea Route. Not because the Arctic is crowded with vessels. Not because there are big money yet. But, because there are so many different shipping interests involved and because Russia and foreign shipping companies agrees on the basic principles for using the route.

The vessel "Baltica" was the first ever high-tonnage tanker to sail with petroleum products from Europe to Asia via the north. The 100,000 tons tanker made the Northern Sea Route faster than expected. Other tankers have also sailed from Murmansk to Russia’s northeastern corner with oil-products this summer. Some Sovcomflot tankers will sail from the Varandey oil-terminal in Nenets Autonomous Area and eastbound now in September.

When the bulk-carrier “MV Nordic Barents” sails from the Northern Norwegian harbor of Kirkenes next week loaded with iron-ore concentrate, also that vessel writes itself into the history book of the new Arctic. The vessel is heading for China and will then be the first ever foreign flag vessel to sail the entire Northern Sea Route in transit without entering any Russian harbor.

http://www.barentsobserver.com/the-futu ... 16319.html

The official said the voyage will attract the attention of freight forwarders to the transport capacities of the Northern Sea Route, which is the shortest seaway from the ports of western Europe and Russia to the Far East and South-East Asia.

Olersky said that in the future, the Northern Sea Route could replace the much longer passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Suez Canal.

http://en.rian.ru/news/20100611/159388712.html

The Arctic Sea route is now open for two months in the late summer, starting next year it is predicted that sea traffic between Europe and Asia will increasingly use this route to save time, fuel and money rather than Suez or Panama.

While the big multinational companies are interested in saving money first and foremost the reason they are doing so is a massive increase in the efficiency of shipping goods between Europe and Asia about 17% of the year. Once one company makes a move like this the rest tend to fall like domino's because everyone wants to get in on a 'good thing'.

In turn this creates incentives for Norway and Russia and Canada to improve their ice surveys and Arctic naval/coast guard detachments. This will give better data for the climate change researchers to work with and many more eyewitness accounts of what is actually going on.

If the route is as profitable as projected you will see a shift in shipping cycles for the major companies to take the best advantage of the arctic season they can, which in turn will improve efficiency and conserve a lot of shipping fuel making Asian goods cheaper in Europe than they already are.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Crazy_Dad » Tue 09 Nov 2010, 07:30:19

The Arctic has a mean depth of 15meters. Big ships (super carriers, oil tankers) draw more than that? Considering there must be lots of shallow bits. I guess they have charts for that.

Precisely why the methane hydrates are now pluming. Not much of a buffer against the warming waters and atmosphere. The whole globalism trend must reverse to preserve any sort of future, if it is not too late already.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 09 Nov 2010, 08:21:48

Crazy_Dad wrote:................. if it is not too late already.


Too late.............

In the past few years the NW passage has had more and more small sailing vessels making the transit. 2008 some guy did it in a wooden Bristol Channel Cutter with his wife and two early teen daughters. My cousin new them briefly as they were in St. Johns where he was a school teacher.

I think the major routes are pretty well charted already. But clearly there are still things to be 'found' (rocks by hulls), and that will result in more 'accidental' spills.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Crazy_Dad » Tue 09 Nov 2010, 08:27:03

Newfie wrote:I think the major routes are pretty well charted already. But clearly there are still things to be 'found' (rocks by hulls), and that will result in more 'accidental' spills.


Well another thing is do we want ship propellors stirring up the shallow waters there. What with all the methane hydrates etc just below the surface. Not to mention all the drilling...
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby dissident » Tue 09 Nov 2010, 08:29:15

The Arctic has a mean depth of 15meters.


No. The shallowest part of the Northern Sea Route is the ESAS with a mean depth of 45 m. The Barents Sea has a depth around 100 m. (See the bathymetry chart at link). If anything it is the Canadian North West Passage that is a shipping nightmare. In spite of all the bluster from the Harper government about sovereignty this is the least appealing route to the Orient.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Crazy_Dad » Tue 09 Nov 2010, 09:12:02

dissident wrote:
The Arctic has a mean depth of 15meters.


No. The shallowest part of the Northern Sea Route is the ESAS with a mean depth of 45 m. The Barents Sea has a depth around 100 m. (See the bathymetry chart at link). If anything it is the Canadian North West Passage that is a shipping nightmare. In spite of all the bluster from the Harper government about sovereignty this is the least appealing route to the Orient.


True but the hydrates that are the problem are currently from Chukchi
Borderland back to Russia right around Northern Europe. Very shallow. Also where it is easiest to cause disruption. That's the area I meant. You were correct to correct me. The mean depth in the area I meant is around 15 meters.
I can only guess at the drilling and other activity that will be taking place in the search of more oil and gas.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 10 Nov 2010, 07:39:15

Like it or not this route is going to see increasing traffic year in and year out until it reaches saturation. This is almost guaranteed simply because it opens at the right time of year for China to ship cheap Christmas ornaments and toys to Europe and the USA/Canadian east coast ports. That is where China got its start in global trade and I see no reason to doubt that they still make a lot of money shipping all those goods at that time of the year. If they add other goods shipping out and raw materials shipping back to China you will have a large portion of the world shipping fleet using this route when it is open by 2020.

If I could think of a way to profit off of it I would be a wealthy person :) I would encourage it ASAP simply because I believe the energy savings will more than make up for the direct environmental impact in terms of total environmental damage.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 10 Nov 2010, 11:18:02

Anthropogenic factor and methane emission on the East-Siberian shelf
Results of data analysis, based on measurement of atmospheric concentrations of methane in the shallow part of the East Siberian shelf (ESS) are presented in this work. It was shown that methane emission in the atmosphere is determined not only by natural factors, but is also sensitive to anthropogenic influences, like the engine mode of a ship. It was determined that the hydraulic impact, which occurs when starting a ship’s engine after drifting through a shallow, can induce a great methane outbreak in the atmosphere. The power of these “short-lived” sources can exceed the power of any one deep-water mud volcano. In the shallow parts of the ESS, the anthropogenic factor can be one of the important factors effecting methane outbreaks in the atmosphere.

link
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 10 Nov 2010, 13:05:39

They'll have to be careful to locate all the new drilling platforms away from the new shipping lanes as the Arctic Ocean sea ice continues to thaw.

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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 11 Nov 2010, 19:48:06

Plantagenet wrote:They'll have to be careful to locate all the new drilling platforms away from the new shipping lanes as the Arctic Ocean sea ice continues to thaw.


What is the nautical distance from Valdez or Anchorage, AK to Savannah, GA or NYC, NY via the Northern Sea Route vs Panama? Or what about Seattle, WA instead of an Alaskan port of call to the Eastern Seaboard?

When China or Korea or Japan decides to aggressively pursue the short route to the Atlantic their competitors will be falling all over themselves to join in the race.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 12 Nov 2010, 09:17:59

Tanada wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:They'll have to be careful to locate all the new drilling platforms away from the new shipping lanes as the Arctic Ocean sea ice continues to thaw.


What is the nautical distance from Valdez or Anchorage, AK to Savannah, GA or NYC, NY via the Northern Sea Route vs Panama? Or what about Seattle, WA instead of an Alaskan port of call to the Eastern Seaboard?

When China or Korea or Japan decides to aggressively pursue the short route to the Atlantic their competitors will be falling all over themselves to join in the race.


Very roughly:

Anchorage to NYC
via McClure Straight = 7,000
Via Panama = 9,000

Shanghai to NYC
via Mc Clure Straight = 10,000
via Panama = 13,000
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 30 Nov 2012, 22:01:22

http://www.voanews.com/content/russia_h ... 54675.html

Russians and Chinese, however, see an upside to ice melting in the Arctic.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Arctic summer shipping season closed, recording record ship transits and record cargo volumes. There were 47 crossings by ships between Asia and Europe - almost 12 times the four recorded in 2010.

With more open water, U.S. experts predict that cargo volumes will increase this decade by more than 50 times from this year’s level. For northern Europe, the Russian Arctic route can cut 7,000 kilometers off the standard trip to Asia through Egypt’s Suez Canal.

Russian pride in the Arctic is so high that there is a movement afoot in Moscow to rename the waters off Russia’s 7,000 kilometer shoreline: the Sea of Russia.

Shipping gains

China is taking notice, sending its first ship ever through Russia’s Arctic passage. The icebreaker Snow Dragon sailed from China to Iceland and back, docking in Shanghai in September.

Sergey Balmasov, a Russian who runs the Arctic Logistics Information Office in Kirkenes, northern Norway, said open water and a five-month season allowed several cargo ships to make round trip runs across the top of Russia this summer. Two ships found cargo for a return trip, taking jet fuel from South Korea to Finland.


More at the link, but what it boils down too is the predictions this thread is based upon are coming to fruition. Russia and China, and the rest of Europe and Asia, are looking more and more to the Arctic passage as a faster-cheaper-better alternative to the Suez or Panama.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 30 Nov 2012, 23:30:00

Apparently not quite over...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20454757

"Gas tanker Ob River attempts first winter arctic crossing"
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 01 Dec 2012, 07:25:54

A few years ago someone put up a link to the international ship tracking group. I don't know who it was or what the name of the group was but when you opened up their page you could see where all the ship transponders were world wide and see where traffic was traveling at sea. Back then the Northern Sea Route was almost silent because when the USSR broke up it fell into disuse for 20 years. Anyone have the link or know of a better one? It would be interesting to track the Ob and other ships and see just when they go for the Northern route vs the longer routes.
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Re: Arctic shipping to conserve energy.

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 01 Dec 2012, 12:08:35

It's called AIS. It is required on ships over 65 feet, and is allowed on smaller vessels. It CAN have a range of 40 miles. It is for collision avoidance between boats, and they can see each other in the middle of the ocean.

What you will see is where there is a shore side station. You won't see the off shore vessels, or in less traveled or developed regions.

So about the only thing you can do is to look for ships going past the Northern tip of Norway, on the Russian side. On the Canadian side, no good station

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/

http://www.vesselfinder.com/
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