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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 25 Sep 2017, 02:20:46

Wattsupwiththat is a denier site. Try the end of the Pliocene as the last time the Arctic was ice free.
That's 2.58 million years ago. The start of the Pleistocene is the start of the four most recent glaciations. Current understanding is that there had never been an ice free period between those glaciations. Of course, you will find some who believe otherwise, but the current understanding is that the last time the Arctic was ice free, was the end of the Pliocene. (Based on Arctic Ocean sediment cores.)

Opps, I just found a paper from 2014 that pushes it back to 4 million years ago.

The emergence of modern sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean
Arctic sea ice coverage is shrinking in response to global climate change and summer ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean are predicted by the end of the century. The validity of this prediction could potentially be tested through the reconstruction of the climate of the Pliocene epoch (5.33–2.58 million years ago), an analogue of a future warmer Earth. Here we show that, in the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean, ice-free conditions prevailed in the early Pliocene until sea ice expanded from the central Arctic Ocean for the first time ca. 4 million years ago. Amplified by a rise in topography in several regions of the Arctic and enhanced freshening of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice expanded progressively in response to positive ice-albedo feedback mechanisms. Sea ice reached its modern winter maximum extension for the first time during the culmination of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation, ca. 2.6 million years ago.

link
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 20:25:54

I saw this beautiful video today of sea ice forming in the Arctic and I would like to share it:

https://youtu.be/cQjKjOdAZow?t=1s

From watching it I was amazed to see how much water vapor is being expressed into the atmosphere from the freeze up process. If freezing is diminished, then this source of water vapor would diminish.
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Cool ice

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 08:09:53

We highlight a selection of the most breathtaking ice formations that have been found in nature!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nf8b_IQv-rw

Maybe Elsa the icy queen can let it go:

Fearless optimist Anna (voice of Kristen Bell) sets off on an epic journey—teaming up with rugged mountain man Kristoff (voice of Jonathan Groff) and his loyal reindeer Sven—to find her sister Elsa (voice of Idina Menzel), whose icy powers have trapped the kingdom of Arendelle in eternal winter. Encountering Everest-like conditions, mystical trolls and a hilarious snowman named Olaf, Anna and Kristoff battle the elements in a race to save the kingdom.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0MK7qz13bU

What else could save the arctic sea ice from going extinct?
Magic is what we need, and soon.

That or drain the arctic ocean 50 meters as to lay bare the ESAS so it can refreeze and the 1500 Gton carbon pool stays put, sealed.
Close of the water between Russia/Alaska, Fram, Iceland to Norway and pump enough water out, make a giant brine lake.......sweet and salty.
Easy does it, just ask the Dutch, they love to pump out water and clear land.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 16:21:08

Rod_Cloutier wrote:how much water vapor is being expressed into the atmosphere from the freeze up process. If freezing is diminished, then this source of water vapor would diminish.
I think it's the opposite. The evaporation is from open water, nothing to do with the process.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 08:16:06

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Revi » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 08:58:55

I guess it's the third smallest area covered by sea ice, but still well below the average...
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 11:42:10

Keith_McClary wrote:
Rod_Cloutier wrote:how much water vapor is being expressed into the atmosphere from the freeze up process. If freezing is diminished, then this source of water vapor would diminish.
I think it's the opposite. The evaporation is from open water, nothing to do with the process.

No the below 0 deg. C wind blowing over the open water is giving it a wind chill effect and stripping heat and moisture (as water vapor) out of it. As soon as enough heat has been sucked away that open water will also freeze.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Oct 2017, 07:09:55

More bad arctic news

Declining faster than expected

https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reute ... SKBN1CT2JD

And from 2008

http://www.joshuakors.com/meltdown.pdf
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 25 Oct 2017, 23:28:17

"faster than expected"


Seems to be something of a meme these days...
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby GASMON » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 05:09:31

They've been holding the thermometers upside down !!!!!!!!!

Climate change might be worse than thought after scientists find major mistake in water temperature readings
The sea was much colder than previously thought, the study suggests, indicating that climate change is advancing at an unprecedented rate


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien ... 20696.html

Any good news out there at all, about anything ?

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 07:10:56

We won’t have to worry about correcting overshoot?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 09:43:26

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 15:48:18

Donald Trump Accused of Obstructing Arctic Satellite Research into Climate Change

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President Trump has been accused of deliberately obstructing research on global warming after it emerged that a critically important technique for investigating sea-ice cover at the poles faces being blocked.

The row has erupted after a key polar satellite broke down a few days ago, leaving the US with only three ageing ones, each operating long past their shelf lives, to measure the Arctic’s dwindling ice cap. Scientists say there is no chance a new one can now be launched until 2023 or later. None of the current satellites will still be in operation then.

The crisis has been worsened because the US Congress this year insisted that a backup sea-ice probe had to be dismantled because it did not want to provide funds to keep it in storage. Congress is currently under the control of Republicans, who are antagonistic to climate science and the study of global warming.
“This is like throwing away the medical records of a sick patient,” ... “Our world is ailing and we have apparently decided to undermine, quite deliberately, the effectiveness of the records on which its recovery might be based. It is criminal.”

- David Gallaher - National Snow and Ice Data Center - Boulder, Colorado

At present three ageing satellites – DMSP F16, F17 and F18 – remain in operation, though they are all beginning to drift out of their orbits over the poles. The latest satellite in the series, F19, began to suffer sensor malfunctions last year and finally broke down a few weeks ago. It should have been replaced with the F20 probe, which had already been built and was being kept in storage by the US Air Force. However it had to be destroyed, on the orders of the US Congress, on the grounds that its storage was too costly.

Many scientists say this decision was made for purely ideological reasons. They also warn that many other projects for monitoring climate change, including several satellite missions, face similar threats from the Trump administration and Congress.

Such losses have serious consequences, say researchers. “Sea-ice data provided by satellites is essential for initiating climate models and validating them,” said Andrew Fleming of the British Antarctic Survey. “We will be very much the poorer without that information.”

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 16:56:41

GASMON wrote:They've been holding the thermometers upside down !!!!!!!!!

Climate change might be worse than thought after scientists find major mistake in water temperature readings
The sea was much colder than previously thought, the study suggests, indicating that climate change is advancing at an unprecedented rate


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien ... 20696.html

Any good news out there at all, about anything ?

Gas


No. Not a chance.

The above paper (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01225-9) is a show stopper. It demonstrates that diagenetic processing of fossils is not something that can be ignored. So the assumption that fossils are maintaining their O isotope ratios over millions of years is pure nonsense.

The conclusion that the oceans 100 million years ago were 15 C colder is solid and destroys a spurious paradox about that era. It also means that we are going to see the collapse of the ocean CO2 sink like has not been seen for the last 100 million years. In fact, the sink will turn into a source since there is about 50 times more dissolved CO2 in the oceans than in the atmosphere. Humans can stop pumping CO2 and oceans will take over that task. But we know that humans will pump CO2 until there literally is no tomorrow.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 18:45:07

dissident wrote:
GASMON wrote:They've been holding the thermometers upside down !!!!!!!!!

Climate change might be worse than thought after scientists find major mistake in water temperature readings
The sea was much colder than previously thought, the study suggests, indicating that climate change is advancing at an unprecedented rate


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien ... 20696.html

Any good news out there at all, about anything ?

Gas


No. Not a chance.

The above paper (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01225-9) is a show stopper. It demonstrates that diagenetic processing of fossils is not something that can be ignored. So the assumption that fossils are maintaining their O isotope ratios over millions of years is pure nonsense.

The conclusion that the oceans 100 million years ago were 15 C colder is solid and destroys a spurious paradox about that era. It also means that we are going to see the collapse of the ocean CO2 sink like has not been seen for the last 100 million years. In fact, the sink will turn into a source since there is about 50 times more dissolved CO2 in the oceans than in the atmosphere. Humans can stop pumping CO2 and oceans will take over that task. But we know that humans will pump CO2 until there literally is no tomorrow.

I started reading that last paper but my eyes glazed over. If the ocean was then 15 C colder then it is now Which is 4 deg.C over much of it's deep water why didn't it turn into a full depth block of ice. ?? Just asking.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 05 Nov 2017, 19:38:51

Another day or two, 2017 will be second lowest for the date behind 2016. It has just now caught 2012. It's going to be another one of THOSE winters in the Arctic.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... evious.png

Also, Wipneus just reported Fram export has started up again, and we have already passed global max area with 2017 in 2nd place significantly below any other year other than 2016.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 04:21:28

From my understanding no recovery is possible. It is all going to keep on deterioratig. Am I missing something?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 08:09:21

You are correct. This goes in one direction and one direction only.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 06 Nov 2017, 14:58:40

Of course, there could be a major volcanic eruption that would cool the planet a bit for a year or two, and you could see a bit of temporary recovery then. And you can bet the denialosphere will go apesh!t howling how gw is a hoax, etc, etc, etc...

But when the ash clears from the atmosphere, we will be back to a steady trend of loss, probably with a vengeance.
-----------------------

Here is a longish but relevant here (and in the methane thread) comment from ATeam at asif:

I strongly recommend reading and re-reading the April 2017 Shakhova & Semiletov interview and going through the nine pictures in the NatComm paper until you get it. A lot of people posting here simply do not grasp the basic 1,2,3 of what's been observed nor the whats and whys S&S are proposing.

After assimilating the nine pictures, perhaps then opinionate on whether it is right or wrong or too soon to say. More work is needed, it always is; however the nine pictures in the NatComm paper show where it's headed: additional bubble and drill core-calibrated, repeat sonar surveys.

Essentially all observational data on the East Siberian shelf methane derives from field work by S&S and colleagues. Do you understand what that means? It means people pontificating on ESAS methane need to base off S&S data. Very few do. It means models have to be calibrated with S&S data. Very few are.

The vast majority of ESAS secondary coverage falls into psychological categories such as projection, competition, ignorance, misunderstanding, denial, and panic. Very little commentary is data-driven.

Cubicle-based, lower-latitude authorities seem to think the ESAS consists of a vast submerged tundra, with featureless even layers of permafrost and clathrates at depth warmed from below by a uniform geothermal gradient, extending out to the edge of the continental shelf under a unchanging near-frozen placid sea.

Inconveniently, the East Siberian shelf and its sedimentary drape are very heterogenous structurally because of a long complicated history of interaction with adjacent permafrost land, enormous sediment-laden rivers and paleo-rivers, ocean waters that advance and retreat with glacial cycles, with land exposed to very cold air at low stands, complicated by a 53m sill at the Bering Strait and a 1 km thick ice shelf at the last glacial maximum and thermokarst processes that still proceed even when permafrost is submerged.

Because submerged permafrost does not form a homogeneous lid, degradation of lid quality begins long before it thaws uniformly to its full thickness. Multiple escape routes have already developed in inhomogeneous regions such thawed or never-frozen taliks, thermokarst, glacial scours, pockmarks, convective salt fingering, groundwater intrusion, and geological faults. Not only that, the limited number of revisited escape routes are getting worse, fast. For the large volume of over-pressurized free methane gas that is already sitting there.

S&S are primarily concerned with this heterogeneity and its consequences. That's a good start in those nine pictures in the NatComm paper. There's more though: the special journal issue on the Oden's research and the 2018 papers now visible as AGU17 abstracts:

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15872
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/special_issue652.html special issue of The Cryosphere
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/meeting ... per/271328 Semiletov
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/meeting ... per/214305 Semiletov
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/meeting ... per/216749 Semiletov
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/meeting ... per/228715 Weidner
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/meeting ... per/214305 Jakobsson
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 07 Dec 2017, 10:56:33

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