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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 03 Aug 2017, 23:09:42

Simple enough, Santa owns a private island at the North Pole. It's not on any map, as so many would try to go there if they knew where it was. It is also protected by a constant invisibility spell, to keep from being spied on by satellites.








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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 06 Aug 2017, 22:36:14

Time to watch.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

Next few days should be pretty exciting.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 06 Aug 2017, 22:53:15

Ohmigosh. Look how far the pack ice is north of Alaska.

The polar bear cubs are absolutely screwed this year. No way they can swim that.

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Where's my cub? He was with me up until about 10 miles ago............

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 18:36:10

Fast-melting Arctic = sign of bad global warming

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... 1aab5e5cc7


"It’s not just sea ice on the decline. Glaciers in the Arctic are shrinking. And the massive Greenland ice sheet is slowly but steadily melting and that can add a big dose to sea level rise. Since 2002, it has lost 4,400 billion tons (4,000 billion metric tons) of ice.

Then there’s the Arctic carbon bomb. Carbon dioxide and methane — which traps even more heat — are stuck in the permafrost in places like Alaska and Siberia.

“Roast the Arctic and you create a mess everywhere on Earth,” said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer."
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Pen Hadow sets sail for North Pole as Arctic ice melts

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 12:39:47

Pen Hadow sets sail for North Pole as Arctic ice melts.
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-can ... -ice-melts
British explorer Pen Hadow and his crew have set sail from Alaska, in an attempt to become the first people ever to sail to the North Pole.

With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up, creating the potential for their planned 5,500 km (3,500 mile) journey for the first time in human history.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Pen Hadow sets sail for North Pole as Arctic ice melts

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 14:00:05

dolanbaker wrote:Pen Hadow sets sail for North Pole as Arctic ice melts.
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-can ... -ice-melts
British explorer Pen Hadow and his crew have set sail from Alaska, in an attempt to become the first people ever to sail to the North Pole.

With Arctic ice melting at an unprecedented rate, previously inaccessible waters are opening up, creating the potential for their planned 5,500 km (3,500 mile) journey for the first time in human history.

I have to doubt he will get anywhere near the pole this year considering the average temperature north of 80 deg. N latitude. The melt season is rapidly approaching it's end and the sun sets seven minutes a day sooner at the arctic circle each day and will set for the winter at the pole in just forty days.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 14:13:04

Maybe he's using an icebreaker disguised as a yacht!
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 15:07:36

The thickest sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is located close to the north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. This ice is now breaking up, due to high temperatures and strong cyclonic winds that cause warm rain, high waves and strong sea currents.

Watch the thickest sea ice break up on the animation below. This is a 17 MB file, so it may take some time to fully load. Click here if you do not see the file appear below.

The animation below shows the thickest sea ice breaking up between July 14, 2017, and August 13, 2017.


Image
*****************************
If the thickest ice is gone the blue ocean event is near....
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 15 Aug 2017, 15:17:49

great vid, mbs.

The heat anomalies in the general region are quite stunning. And further south they are helping to spark enormous and explosive fires, ash from which will surely fall on CAA and Arctic Sea ice, probably leading to faster melt while the sun is still up up there.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 11:43:51

One of the consequences of sea ice melt is walrus end up living on shore in the thousands. And that puts them at risk of polar bears and stampedes:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/wal ... -1.4251277

This used to be a rare event; now it's becoming an annual event, and happening ever earlier.

thnx to numerobis at asif for link and text
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 13:14:21

http://mashable.com/2017/08/17/canada-i ... lYpTa1GqqI

Once in the atmosphere, weather patterns are causing the wildfire smoke to converge into a blanket so thick it's blotting out the sun across northern Canada. This smoke is working its way to the high Arctic, where it could speed up the melting of sea and land ice.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 15:13:56

At this point, most of that melting effect will happen next year, since the sun is already getting low up there. I doubt all that soot will be expelled from the sea ice over the winter, the way salt can be.

The glaciers in the CAA will definitely darken, too. More bad news, and a further feedback.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 18 Aug 2017, 21:36:36

Would not a soot deposit this late in the year get covered up by the coming winters snow fall? Only a snow fall drought would leave it exposed to affect next summers melt season.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 19 Aug 2017, 02:17:40

Eventually, that snow will melt, revealing the dark layer below. At that point, things will melt much more rapidly. We'll see.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 06:36:27

First Tanker Crosses Northern Sea Route Without Ice Breaker

Image

A commercial LNG tanker has sailed across the colder, northern route from Europe to Asia without the protection of an ice-breaker for the first time.

The specially-built ship completed the crossing in just six-and-a-half days setting a new record, according to tanker's Russian owners.

The 300-metre-long Sovcomflot ship, the Christophe de Margerie, was carrying gas from Norway to South Korea.

The ship, which features a lightweight steel reinforced hull, is the largest commercial ship to receive Arc7 certification, which means it is capable of travelling through ice up to 2.1m thick.

On this trip it was able to keep up an average speed of 14 knots despite sailing through ice that was over one metre thick in places.

On its maiden voyage earlier this year, the Christophe de Margerie docked in the Russian port of Sabetta. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the crew and energy company officials gathered on the ship's bridge, saying: "This is a big event in the opening up of the Arctic."
"There is an assumption that the ice is not going to thicken dramatically for the economic life of these vessels, which could be over 30 years."

The Russian owners, Sovcomflot, will use this ice-breaking tanker to export gas from the Yamal peninsula to Asian markets later this year.

It will be the first of a planned fleet of 15 that will transport gas from these ice bound fields all year round.

"Previously there was only a window of navigation from our summer to autumn, but this ship will be able to sail westwards from Sabetta which is the Yamal energy port, all year round and eastwards from July to December," said Sovcomflot spokesman Bill Spears.

In 2016, the northern sea route saw 19 full transits from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Next milestone: 'First' major Arctic oil spill
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 12:35:36

vox_mundi wrote:Next milestone: 'First' major Arctic oil spill

Not from an LNG ice breaker/tanker. :)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Sun 27 Aug 2017, 20:02:54

vtsnowedin wrote:
vox_mundi wrote:Next milestone: 'First' major Arctic oil spill

Not from an LNG ice breaker/tanker. :)


He just had to get a Russophobic snipe in there. If it was some American LNG tanker he would be singing its praises for cutting down on shipping pollution. Touching to see a Russia hater worry about oil spills that will affect Siberian shores. Instead of fretting his little head over Russian hypothetical pollution he should be more worried about a repeat of the Exxon Valdez.

http://act.alaskawild.org/sign/noexxon2017
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 28 Aug 2017, 19:13:17

dissident wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
vox_mundi wrote:Next milestone: 'First' major Arctic oil spill

Not from an LNG ice breaker/tanker. :)


He just had to get a Russophobic snipe in there. If it was some American LNG tanker he would be singing its praises for cutting down on shipping pollution. Touching to see a Russia hater worry about oil spills that will affect Siberian shores. Instead of fretting his little head over Russian hypothetical pollution he should be more worried about a repeat of the Exxon Valdez.

http://act.alaskawild.org/sign/noexxon2017
What a load of bull crap you spewed out there.
My post merely points out that a LNG tanker that leaks for any reason will either vent natural gas into the air or if an ignition source is present, which is very likely, will create a fire ball that will consume the entire cargo and the crew. There wont be any oil on the beaches or birds covered in oil.
The ownership of the LNG tanker matters not and I have no prejudice for or against the Russians and their shipping plans.
he should be more worried about a repeat of the Exxon Valdez.

A ship that is not carrying oil cant spill oil.
Do you understand that you idiot?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 10:29:40

http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/

While extent was lower on August 15, 2012, Arctic sea ice is very thin at the moment, as the Arctic Ocean has become warmer, and sea ice could disappear altogether in one month time, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.
And ominously, July 2017 was the hottest July on record, as illustrated by the image below.


The July temperature anomaly was particularly high on land on the Southern Hemisphere (1.53°C or 2.75°F, compared to 1901-2000), as illustrated by the image on the right, showing a linear trend over the period 2012-2017.
Above image shows that July 2017 was 2.25°C (4.05°F) warmer than the annual global mean 1980-2015 (seasonal cycle). Only in August 2016 was it warmer (2.29°C), but then again, August 2017 looks set to be warmer than that yet.


Methane reached peaks as high as 2881 ppb at 479 mb on August 18, 2017, as the combination image below shows (left panel, top left corner).
The image doesn't specify the origin of the peak, but when levels are that much above the mean, the likely cause is either wildfires or clathrate destabilization. As the image in the right panel shows, methane levels at 280 mb were also very high over the Arctic Ocean north of Canada in the morning that day, which is unusual at such an altitude.
The image below shows that mean global methane reached a level of 1881 ppb at 280 mb (MetOp-1, am) on August 15, 2017.


https://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2017/08 ... -2017.html

As the image below shows, it was as hot as 94°F or 34.5°C in North Canada on August 13, 2017 (at the green circle, at 1000 hPa, at 00:00 UTC). Temperatures at surface level were as high as 33.1°C or 91.5°F at that location, where wind was coming from the south and blowing toward the north at a speed of 28 km/h or 17 mph at that time.

Above image shows cyclonic winds over the Arctic Ocean pulling warm air from North Canada over the Arctic Ocean, while pushing cold air out. Winds and rain have been battering the sea ice for some time now, as discussed in an earlier post.

Fires are becoming more devastating, as discussed in an earlier post. The August 2, 2017, satellite image below shows smoke from fires in British Columbia blanketing Vancouver and Seattle. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels were as high as 527 ppm, carbon monoxide (CO) levels as high as 12.59 ppm and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) levels as high as 490.77 µg/m³, as these images show.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 11:35:41

From what I can see, the minimum sea ice extent and area figures appear to be on track to match those of 2015, so no catastrophic collapse this year.
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