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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 06 Jun 2017, 03:46:47

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKsqZYJu-Rk

Arctic methane emissions significantly increased since 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqxbU9zOKgE
q.e.d.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 01:34:05

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casest ... thane-gas/

Image
Discovered: 200-plus Arctic lakes which bubble like jacuzzis from seeping methane gas
By The Siberian Times reporter23 March 2017
Space pictures show the blue-tinted lakes formed in depressions caused by thawing permafrost on the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas....

****************

q.e.d.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 17:30:18

rs is on it now: https://robertscribbler.com/2017/06/07/ ... t-ice-age/

New Study: Ice Sheet Retreat Led to Rapid Methane Hydrate Release at End of Last Ice Age


ETA:
HA! I see that I have been upgraded (downgraded?) to my requested "Harmless Drudge"!!

Thanks, guys!! :lol: :lol:
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby chilyb » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 07:24:58

Slightly OT from arctic sea ice, but related to M_B_S's comments above.

http://www.newsweek.com/hundreds-crater ... sia-619068

Researchers led by Karin Andreassen, from the University of Tromsø, the Arctic University of Norway, were investigating a handful of craters that were first discovered in the 1990s. Using state-of-the-art technology, the team has now been able to map the seafloor more accurately—and their findings showed a vast number of craters covering a huge area.

-----

She says that if you watch this happening, you would see a huge mound suddenly release an enormous amount of gas, then collapse. The resulting craters we see today are between 1,000 and 3,200 feet in diameter.

The process, Andreassen says, is thought to be similar to what scientists are recording on Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula today. Over the last few decades, huge craters have been appearing. Researchers believe they are formed by thawing permafrost causing the buildup of methane below ground, eventually resulting in an explosive collapse.

“There are many mounds and craters—thousands I would guess—that are the same size in Yamal. The process of first forming into mounds, then releasing gas and collapsing—that’s what scientists think is happening in Yamal also. We know from satellite images that areas [where] craters have formed…[were] documented to have been mounds before.”

While the researchers do not think there is much risk of mounds forming, then exploding, in the area they studied, similar buildups could be taking place in regions covered in ice where hydrocarbons are present, such as Greenland.

“It is a process we must take into account when we discuss future methane releases,” Andreassen says. “The point is methane is being released very slowly, but it can be released very fast and abruptly.”

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 07:57:52

http://thiscantbehappening.net/node/3442
Good comprehensive article of the mechanism for rapid extreme climate change
A Rapidly Warming Arctic Could Loose a Methane Climate Bomb Causing Mass Extinction in Nine Years
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imminent impermanence

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 06:44:32

Cog wrote:
Whitefang wrote:Ok Cog,

That newsweek info were based on older, prehuman culture, subsea craters to understand those new ones being formed this decade, to have a look into what is about to happen.

Do you expect the known massive arctic carbon store to be stable without arctic sea ice?

If not we only disagree in when the bomb will go blast or has already.
And then only this year, or a couple of decades from now at the most.

Or do you expect the ice to be a permanent feature of the North?
Even holding on to not this century like the IPCC did not so long ago?


Ok now I've got five people do double down on retardation. That is a record for me so I will break my diet and have a beer.

Let me crystal clear, although it won't matter and you won't bother to read it. I read a posted article that was posted right here in this thread. Within the article it state very clearly that those craters were 15,000 years old. I did not comment on the article until the doomers went nuts, with there usual doom when viewing the graphic of those 15,000 year old craters. I simply commented that they were old. Now the world ends, Cog is smoking dope, he is a fool, an idiot, whatever your insult of choice is.


No Cog, I do not question your mental state and you're welcome to have a dopey beer, best to be enjoyed in moderation, like everything else, indulgence breeds boredom.....

I do however think you are the Hammer type as in you can't touch this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otCpCn0l4Wo

You and the vast majority of human being live like immortal beings, as if death willl never touch you in face of having no assurence that your life will continue for more than 2 minutes as an individual being.

With abrupt CC happening now we being mammals have the knowledge of our death collectively closing in on us, years, decades, whenever.
The best thing to do is to use death as an advisor, stop being a fool in actions to ourselves and other life around us, prepare and be happy, even with the awareness of our imminent demise.
It is our internal dialogue that makes as do as we humans do, a sticky affair.
Before you act, ask yourself if it is a path with heart, nobody is going anywhere, death makes us all equal. This moment can be your last dance on this stage, a play of strategy, you against your death, to store as much personal power, keep your energy up means disease cannot enter, makes you strong and stable, happy with death at your side. A feeling of being Lucky, personal power can even break this bubble of perception, who knows what is possible :-D

I am guilty at being sensitive to SLR as I live at or just above sea level.

adjective: imminent

about to happen.
"they were in imminent danger of being swept away"

synoniemen: impending, at hand, close, near, approaching, fast approaching, coming, forthcoming, on the way, about to happen, upon us, in store, in the offing, in the pipeline, on the horizon, in the air, in the wind, brewing, looming, looming large;

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 12:57:07

Whitefang speaking truth......it is great to be reminded on a daily basis of our tenuous mortal existence. It should be a reason for gratefulness, compassion, joy and deep appreciation for every breath you take, for the sentient awareness you possess as you gaze out on whatever landscape you have in front of you.

Thanks Whitefang!
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 13:38:49

Yes, and very well written...poetry, really.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 09 Jun 2017, 18:39:45

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/arcti ... elt-season


Arctic Sea Ice Primed for Phenomenal Melt Season


The Arctic Ocean’s coating of sea ice—now remarkably thin and sparse after a record-warm winter—could plummet by late summer to the lowest extent...

...at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog (ASIB), Neven Acropolis viewed the weather outlook with dismay:

“I can’t imagine a worse forecast at this time of year. The past couple of melting seasons were marked by relatively weak preconditioning and thus a lack of melting momentum during July and August. Last year the Arctic clearly dodged a bullet because of it, but this year we may not be so lucky, given the record warm winter, record low sea ice volume and now open skies to cause plenty of melt ponding on that massive expanse of first-year ice.”
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 10 Jun 2017, 17:46:58

My money is this year on a virtually ice-free Arctic. The extent belies the huge volume loss going on
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 11 Jun 2017, 08:30:48

onlooker wrote:My money is this year on a virtually ice-free Arctic. The extent belies the huge volume loss going on

Of the three measures, volume, extent, or area, extent is mostly what small vessels like yatchts have to look at. Any large steel hulled ship is more interested in area because that is where the ice gets dense enough to require extra precautions. Scientists and submariners focus on volume because most volume comes from thicker ice, which is more resistant to melting and more dangerous to submarines because it extends much deeper into the water colum. Those giant tabular icebergs that sometimes break free of floating shelves can extend a tousand feet down into the water, you want to avoid them if you are in a submarine. About 12 years ago a big one broke loose from Baffin island and was a concern to the navy until it drifted south and became grounded. I think it has all melted by now, but news pretty much ignored it so I am not sure.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 11 Jun 2017, 10:50:12

Reading the article that Dohboi posted above, I thought it was also worth sharing the Sea Ice Prediction Network info

Might be interesting to follow these reports.

I'm quoting too much here - just see the info in bold and then the SIPN link and report schedule at bottom.



http://www.wunderground.com/cat6/arctic-sea-ice-primed-phenomenal-melt-season


At least one model-based technique offers some hope for a less-than-record-smashing melt. Steven Cavallo and Nick Szapiro (University of Oklahoma) and William Skamarock (National Center for Atmospheric Research) have combined several disparate models into a new approach to sea ice prediction. Their technique draws on a 50-member ensemble of long-term ocean-atmosphere-ice simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). After identifying the ensemble member that most closely matches the state of conditions on June 1, the team then uses the high-resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) to refine the ensemble member’s lower-resolution solution for the summer....

In a “hindcast” test of summer 2012, again starting with June 1, the CESM-MPAS duo successfully called for a parade of ice-grinding Arctic storms in late summer, which helped produce a record-low extent. For 2017, the just-completed CESM-MPAS outlook is calling for an ice-depleting pattern dominated by surface ridging in June and July and more frequent surface cyclones in August. For 2017, the just-completed CESM-MPAS outlook is calling for an ice-depleting pattern dominated by surface ridging in June and July and more frequent surface cyclones in August. The outlook calls for a minimum extent of around 4 million sq. km. which would be very low but still above the 2012 record of 3.62 million sq. km....

The CESM-MPAS forecast is being submitted to the Sea Ice Prediction Network for inclusion in its first batch of Sea Ice Outlook contributions from various sources. These June outlooks, which typically number several dozen, should be released around the end of the month. Each outlook gives a prediction for the average Arctic sea ice extent in September, which is typically the month with the lowest extent.





http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2017/june/call


Sea Ice Outlook

Since 2008, the annual Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has provided an open process for those interested in arctic sea ice to share ideas about the September minimum sea ice extent. Starting in 2014, the SIO is managed as part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network.

The SIO produces reports in June, July, and August containing a variety of perspectives on Arctic sea ice—from observations of current conditions, to advanced numerical models, to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. A post-season report will provide an in-depth analysis of factors driving sea ice extent this summer as well as explore the scientific methods for predicting seasonal ice extent.



Tentative Schedule for Sea Ice Outlook 2017 Reports

JUNE REPORT: (Based on May data)
- 26 May 2017 (Friday): Call for Contributions for June Report
- 12 June 2017 (Monday): Contributions Due for June Report
- 23 June 2017 (Friday): June Report Released

JULY REPORT: (Based on May and June data)
- 30 June 2017 (Friday): Call for Contributions for July Report
- 12 July 2017 (Wednesday): Contributions Due for July Report
- 24 July 2017 (Monday): July Report Released

AUGUST REPORT: (Based on May, June, and July data)
- 28 July 2017 (Friday): Call for Contributions for August Report
- 11 August (Friday) 2017: Contributions Due for August Report
- 21 August (Monday) 2017: August Report Released
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 11 Jun 2017, 19:45:12

What gets yachts is the ice moving around and blocking the choke points. Wind changes and stuff moves and helps or hinders passage.

That tabular berg came out of the Kennedy Strait IIRC. They generally break off one year and move South the second and melt then. The bergs don't last long and really are not an issue in the passage.

Pic is from that same year I think.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dbruning » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 20:17:36

Image

Hey guys, a friend of my wife was visiting Newfoundland, this is one of her photos, check out the ice moving in the background.

Local residents say they have never seen this much for this time of year.

Love the pic. Hate the implications.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 08:06:14

Right, the bergs are usually latter.

Do you know where the pic was taken?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dbruning » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 10:44:22

Twillingate Newfoundland - taken mid-morning yesterday.

From what I understand, this is where you go to see the ice flowing past, it's just this year the amount is noticeably more so the locals are talking about it.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 11:20:14

Climate change study canceled due to climate change
Hazardous ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic melted hopes for the next leg of a $17 million scientific study.

http://www.cnet.com/au/news/climate-change-study-canceled-canadian-artic-hudson-bay-system

It sounds like an Onion headline.

The team from Canadian research icebreaker CCGS Amundsen has had to cancel the first part of its 2017 expedition "due to complications associated with the southward motion of hazardous Arctic sea ice, caused by climate change," reports the University of Manitoba, which is leading the study.

In short, part of a climate change study was canceled due to ... climate change.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 17:23:16

Two strong cyclones are scheduled to hit the central basin in the next few days...could be quite the $h!t show!
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 16:27:33

Wow, compare from this link today with exactly one year ago
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p ... lor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,SMAP_L3_Passive_Day_Freeze_Thaw(hidden),Reference_Labels,Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-06-16&z=1&v=-1302845.6903248131,1499358.828124998,-620861.6903248131,1940190.828124998
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 16 Jun 2017, 16:34:00

Nice images.

I see much bigger and clearer openings now in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas than there were a year ago.

Is there anything else in the images that you would like to draw our attention to?
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