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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 15:02:53

As the graph I displayed above shows, the beginning of the melt season for extent is not earlier than the norm for the last few decades, but it is lower than any peak on record, and lower than the 1980 -2010 average by over two standard deviations.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 15:24:45

onlooker wrote:So, it looks like the melting season has begun. Does anyone know how much earlier than usual? Heralding a relatively ice free Arctic it now appears


It doesn't work that way, except in a technicality sense of the term 'melt season'.

In the fall the number keeps dropping into September and the last decade has been getting mighty close to crossing over into October on occasion, but just because the nadir is say September 15 doesn't mean that October 1 will have significantly more sea ice than September 15 did. For one thing while melting is taking place it doesn't stop everywhere at once, the areas further from the pole where warm currents intrude keep melting after that nadir point even as areas closer to the pole start to skim over with ice.

The reverse happens in the spring, even as some particularly thin and vulnerable spots might be melting as I type this some other locations are still adding ice to the edge of their mass, or leads in the ice pack may still be in the process of freezing over. The net result is kind of a over all pause in extent even as some places are melting. Based on the graph I posted a couple days ago 'true' melt season doesn't start until May, when the total ice cap is shrinking from pretty much all directions instead of growing on one side while melting on the other.

That being said this year we appear to have a big head start in the Bering sea area, but the days are still very short there this time of year and the weather is cold. We could easily have ice growing over the next few weeks in those areas that are normally covered this time of year. On the other hand those areas may not freeze up this year until November or December and the retreat might start in April instead of late May. Truthfully until the calendar says June 1, 2017 none of us will know how April and May turned out, we are all guessing and even the experts are not sure what to expect for the next two months. Even moving the melt season from May 30 up to May 15 would be a significant event. But IT has not happened...YET.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 15:46:15

Image

This is the graph I was talking about I used tinypic to shrink it to fit the screen better but it was a real PITA with multiple attempts to get it to work.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 15:48:27

Thanks as always for the technically informative posts T
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 06:39:26

I am betting that graph will be looking quite different his time next year
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 08:33:21

kiwichick wrote:I am betting that graph will be looking quite different his time next year


That depends, the graph is from the USA agency the EPA and under the new Administration they have a different focus, much more national and much less global.

Hopefully the EU or Russia or China will have enough interest in Arctic Sea Ice to continue publishing data sets like this. Everyone wants to cash in on Arctic Shipping after all.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 08:55:17

Just to make clear again: What I have been talking about is the melt season as measured by extent, and that does seem to have begun. What T is talking about is total volume, and the beginning of melt season for that may well be a ways off. We don't have as accurate real-time numbers for that, so we probably won't know exactly when total volume melt started until a month or so after the event.

T could argue, with good reason, that it is the volume number that really should be seen as the 'real' melt number, since that is the one that actually tells you what is happening with the entirety of the sea ice in the Arctic, rather than just what is happening on the surface. But since extent can more easily be 'seen' and measured on a daily basis with fair accuracy, that is what people get more excited about (this time of year, at least) at places like neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum.

Another argument for why volume is particularly crucial is the effect on salinity of surface waters. If we have lots of transport of sea ice volume out of the Arctic, that is a good bunch of fresh water that will not be contributing to the freshness of the Arctic 'lens'--the surface layer of relatively fresh water in the Arctic that helps insure that it is the only ocean on the planet that freezes. Every diminution of the freshness of that lens makes it harder for ice to form there. There are other threats to the 'halocline,' but let's leave it at that for now.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 10:30:45

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 13:55:36

onlooker wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:NSIDC SIE daily values

3/12/17 14.403
3/13/17 14.370
3/14/17 14.424 <- peak
3/15/17 14.407
3/16/17 14.273
3/17/17 14.242
3/18/17 14.178
3/19/17 14.180

So, it looks like the melting season has begun. Does anyone know how much earlier than usual? Heralding a relatively ice free Arctic it now appears



Actually I used the more conservative NSIDC figures. JAXA figures, used by Neven, show the peak 3/6-3/7.

According to Wipneus over on Neven's site, Volume has been experiencing century drops over the last few days. A combination of export and melting.

It has become apparent there are two camps. Those that expect what has happened in the past to inform what will happen this summer. And those that recognize we aren't in Kansas anymore, and are facing a sea-change.

The Arctic hasn't been 'following the rules' since last year. Why some expect it to suddenly jump back on the tracks and follow what has happened before is beyond me. Wishful thinking maybe?

We are experiencing Abrupt Climate Change. It is happening now. Not just in the Arctic, but globally.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 14:45:59

Cid_Yama wrote:Actually I used the more conservative NSIDC figures. JAXA figures, used by Neven, show the peak 3/6-3/7.

According to Wipneus over on Neven's site, Volume has been experiencing century drops over the last few days. A combination of export and melting.

It has become apparent there are two camps. Those that expect what has happened in the past to inform what will happen this summer. And those that recognize we aren't in Kansas anymore, and are facing a sea-change.

The Arctic hasn't been 'following the rules' since last year. Why some expect it to suddenly jump back on the tracks and follow what has happened before is beyond me. Wishful thinking maybe?

We are experiencing Abrupt Climate Change. It is happening now. Not just in the Arctic, but globally.


I can tell you exactly why I am in wait and see mode Cid. I heard the same 'we are in a new regime' type statements in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012 and 2015. Yes these years are different to very different than the 1978-2006 period and represent a significant change. However none of them lead to a total collapse of Arctic Sea Ice (obviously) and while I enjoy making guesses for the new melt season as much as anyone around here I am not about to proclaim yet again 'the end is nigh' just to end up once again looking like a doom obsessed fool.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 21:22:02

T wrote: "... just to end up once again looking like a doom obsessed fool"

The rest of us are perfectly happy to look like doom obsessed fools!! :-D :-D :lol: :lol: 8) 8) :P :P :roll: :roll: :cry: :cry: :x :x 8O 8O :badgrin: :badgrin: :twisted: :twisted:

The data.

The data are more and more...bizarre.

Lots of people beyond these fora are noticing it too: https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -territory
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 00:34:34

link

We are not in Kansas anymore. Whatever you thought in previous years, it doesn't apply anymore.

I know a lot of you have got your ego on the line with this. You've been repeatedly wrong all along. Too conservative and way underestimating how close we were to this.

You are not about to admit you were wrong until the last nail is in the coffin. We understand this.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 08:37:28

Cid_Yama wrote:link

We are not in Kansas anymore. Whatever you thought in previous years, it doesn't apply anymore.

I know a lot of you have got your ego on the line with this. You've been repeatedly wrong all along. Too conservative and way underestimating how close we were to this.

You are not about to admit you were wrong until the last nail is in the coffin. We understand this.


Not true, every time I have made a prediction that turned out incorrect I have owned up to that fact. Can you make the same statement? Funny thing is almost every time I have made a wrong prediction it was because I was too aggressive in where we would be a year later, not too conservative. The same is true of dohboi and half a dozen others some of whom no longer even participate in this website beyond lurking. Dolanbaker has generally been the most conservative along with vtsnowedin, and so far their guesses have been as close or closer to the season end numbers as mine or dohboi have been.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby chilyb » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 08:42:30

dohboi wrote:The data.


what dohboi said. The ice is in very poor condition as we enter / approach the melt season. It can all very quickly go "poof" under the right conditions, like Wadhams said. Another "doom obsessed fool," I guess, LOL.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 09:01:39

The minimum is weather-dependent. Nobody can guess the weather. Who would have guessed last summer that we would have had the lowest maximum this winter? Seems silly to guess anything and take those guesses seriously. There is an obvious long-term but seasonal variation is completely random (at least as far as I know). It would be more interesting to guess the extent 5 years out and see who is the closest :-D
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 09:09:54

Not talking about you guesses as to Sea Ice Area at minimum. Talking about the timing of the abrupt climate change, which I said by 2020 all along. Right on schedule.

Your Conservatives you mentioned don't even think climate change is even happening.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby jupiters_release » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 10:44:30

We all understand ice extent collapse will 'eventually' become exponential the way ice volume already has.

What do the models predict will happen to albedo/Arctic warming when summer extent is reduced another 15 to 20% (about 50% total reduction from average since 70's)? Will winter extent collapse become exponential right after summer extent?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 12:04:57

One word of caution, here.

At some point, Greenland ice melt will overwhelm much else happening in the region, cooling and freshening the ocean waters all around it, and probably bringing about some kind of rebound in ice coverage, at least during the winter months. I think that this is the main reason that many models don't show an essentially ice free (extent under 1-1.5 million k^2) Arctic Ocean till a few decades out.

It's looking to me now, though, as if we will get the above stated 'blue ocean' event, but then we may get some coverage back, at least on the Atlantic side, while GIS collapses.

The one thing that most who have followed the Arctic for a number of years can attest to--it is always full of surprises, especially in a world whose basic systems are fundamentally shifting.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 17:31:17

It is clear that there will be a sharp, nonlinear transition when the volume hits a certain threshold. It may even occur earlier since the volume can remain non-negligable but the atmospheric and ocean circulation can clump the ice into a few large islands (such at the north of the Canadian Archipelago). It looks more and more likely that there is enough heat flux going into the Arctic Ocean that whatever ice forms in winter will be a type of slush. So no more ski trips over the Arctic ice.

Increasing Arctic CH4 concentrations, which will become the regional norm will just make it worse since part of the radiative loss from the ocean surface will be offset. Eventually, the warmed regime, the Arctic will have the Eocene feature of being rather mild. But that is not going to happen in the next 100 years.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 17:45:01

Good points, as usual, dis.

Do you think changes in the halocline will play a major role in the short-ish term (years to decades)?
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