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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 05:23:57

dohboi wrote:I give up. I keep providing places (and links, which you don't, I notice) where it's above freezing and you provide places where it's not. Silly to continue in that vein. Best of luck.

Even the link you posted shows below freezing temps in the places I pointed out and even in the Bering sea which you seem to think is ready for sunbathing. I'm looking at reality on the ground or ice vs. the imaginations of dedicated alarmist groups that overstate the case at every opportunity.
Your link:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 866,71.040
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 09:13:37

-1.1C is well above the freezing point for sea water, which freezes at -2 C (= 28.4 F).

Again, I've been telling you this, but you don't seem to be reading (or maybe not comprehending what you're reading??).

Meanwhile, there are other factors that come into play besides raw temperature that determine the onset of melt:


Melt onset is determined by downwelling longwave radiation. From Mortin et al. (2016):

The timing of melt onset affects the surface energy uptake throughout the melt season. Yet the processes triggering melt and causing its large interannual variability are not well understood. Here we show that melt onset over Arctic sea ice is initiated by positive anomalies of water vapor, clouds, and air temperatures that increase the downwelling longwave radiation (LWD) to the surface.

The earlier melt onset occurs; the stronger are these anomalies.

Downwelling shortwave radiation (SWD) is smaller than usual at melt onset, indicating that melt is not triggered by SWD. When melt occurs early, an anomalously opaque atmosphere with positive LWD anomalies preconditions the surface for weeks preceding melt. In contrast, when melt begins late, clearer than usual conditions are evident prior to melt. Hence, atmospheric processes are imperative for melt onset. It is also found that spring LWD increased during recent decades, consistent with trends toward an earlier melt onset.


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 69330/full

(Thanks to neven for this info)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 09:32:02

dohboi wrote:Again, I've been telling you this, but you don't seem to be reading (or maybe not comprehending what you're reading??).


Comprehending a proposal and agreeing with it are two different things. Insulting my intelligence is not a valid argument in support of your position.
Longyearbyen will have a high today of -2C and a low tonight of -4C
Barrow Alaska is at -24C ,Tiksi Russia -22C, Alert Canada is at -23C and the area North of 80degrees North latitude averages -21C.
Those are the facts. Deal with them.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 09:50:13

Yeah, it's really cold in the winter in most parts of the Arctic. Wow. What a marvelous insight!

Everyone knows that. No need to prove it. And it's boring. And yes, stupid, to point it out...like a certain congressman throwing a snowball and claiming that such a clownish act somehow disproves AGW.

Most of the ice in those still-very-cold areas are now well insulated with snow cover, so that cold won't be making much more ice, if any.

What is surprising is that there are some areas that are anomalously warm, so warm that ice formation would have stopped and melt could be beginning.

But no, I don't think you're stupid. I think you, like the above mentioned congressman, intentionally ignore evidence that doesn't conform to your ideological world view, and then try to troll irrelevant 'counter evidence' (which 'evidence' is, in fact, stupid) to imply some kind of vague point.

Good luck with that.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby clif » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 22:42:13

+1
How cathartic it is to give voice to your fury, to wallow in self-righteousness, in helplessness, in self-serving self-pity.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 16 Mar 2017, 21:38:25

Antarctic Sea Ice is doing what the Arctic sea ice did this last fall and winter.

link
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby WildRose » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 12:27:50

There's also evidence of the methane feedback going on in both the Arctic and Antarctic right now, with methane hydrates destabilizing, which of course will cause further melting, and so on...

http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2017/03/ ... poles.html
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 11:37:53

They're pretty much calling the end of the melt season (as far as extent goes, at least) for Arctic sea ice over at ASIF.

Image

Merion at neven's site wrote: "We can now definitely call 13,878,287 km2 on 06 March as the Max ... lowest on record..."
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 12:41:51

@ d.....do you mean the end of the freeze season?......or the start of the melt season?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 18:29:53

I believe the balance has tipped towards melting. Seems clear extent has seen a peak, and Wipneus is reporting century drops in volume.

About a month ahead of time.

Ice conditions in the Arctic are also very poor, after what we witnessed over the last 6 months. With storms and warm currents forecast over the next ten days, I don't expect any chance of the ice recovering any volume.

I believe the overture has begun.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAOf46CXaaw

Is it too early to predict < 1million km2 for the minimum? I don't think so, I'm fairly sure this is it. This summer. All the ducks are in a row and headed south.

And look at Antarctica. link
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 06:07:05

kc, you're right, of course. Sorry for the switcheroo, there.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 09:29:26

I believe the overture has begun.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAOf46CXaaw


I wasted a portion of my Sunday morning watching this- what was the intended message?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 11:31:32

The season does keep getting longer, but it is way too soon to declare we are in the melt season. We are still a couple days shy of the Vernal Equinox i.e. Astronomical Spring. While heat transport by sea water currents does encourage melting all summer it is not powerful enough to shrink the ice much without warm air and some sunshine to tip the balance over that last few degrees from frozen to melting. Anyone who objectively looks at the north polar temperature records can see that temperatures bob around 15-25 degrees C below freezing from November to February every winter.

Even this winter with all those 'anomalous warm fronts' the actual temperature was still -10 C or lower through the winter months with possible minor exceptions that didn't really change the overall picture. The sea water just a few feet below the ice remains just above freezing as it has for most of the last 3 million years since the north tipped over into the ice age climate regime. Until we move into the climate regime where either the water stays warm enough to prevent ice formation even in arctic night, or the air temperature remains above freezing even in the arctic night, there will continue to be sea ice forming in the winter darkness in the arctic.

Let me be clear, we could experience a warm ocean event if the sea ice melts early enough in the season that the water column absorbs enough energy in polar summer and fall to stay warm all winter. On the other side of the coin if the jet stream three cell circulation pattern ceases to exist and the one cell pattern replaces it that will lead to warm air constantly flowing into the Arctic which will prevent ice formation even in polar winter. As time goes on I am leaning more and more to the latter effect being the crucial change, because even if all the floating ice melts away in September there simply isn't enough time to build up the kind of warm sea water needed to prevent ice formation. Remember, late in September the sun sets at the pole and it gets progressively darker in the Arctic Ocean basin right up until early March when Twilight arrives to start bringing some indirect light.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 12:58:13

T wrote: "...if the jet stream three cell circulation pattern ceases to exist and the one cell pattern replaces it that will lead to warm air constantly flowing into the Arctic which will prevent ice formation even in polar winter...."

Yeah, that's the element that I hadn't expected to play such a big role, till recently.

But another element that should be mentioned is the increase in water vapor. Open water not only allows for more heat absorbed into the water, but it also means that more of that water will exist as vapor and clouds in the atmosphere above it. And in the polar winter, the clouds and vapor won't play any role in block insolation, but they will act to hold in warmth.

But were you not struck by the anomalous warmth in the Arctic this year?

On other blogs most people see this as the year that we started moving dramatically into a very different kind of regime. Yes, absolute temperatures on average remained below freezing on average across the region, but most of the winter temps were well above average, much more so than even recent years. It is of course difficult to pick out natural variation from long term trend, especially with only the most recent year's data--and we did just have an El Nino so there was a lot of extra warmth around to be transported up to the high latitudes.

But if atmospheric circulatory patterns have begun to be fundamentally altered, it seems to me we are likely to see more such winters, and of course warmer ones yet. And that's leaving out the possibility/probability of methane and CO2 emerging at ever greater levels from the well known land and sub-sea sources.

And nice graph, but I'm guessing that is melt season as measured by volume rather than extent. Probably the best measure to use, but rather hard to get accurate measures of as it's happening.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 13:26:34

There is no chance for a single hemispheric circulation cell regime whatsoever. The rotation of the planet is what destroys the Hadley circulation in the subtropics and drives the middle-latitude jet. This is actually a proof that the Sun does not rotate around the Earth. If it did and the Earth was "immovable" (cf Catholic Church doctrine a few centuries ago), then there would be one enormous Hadley circulation reaching to the poles and Rossby waves and baroclinic eddies (giving us low pressure and high pressure systems, what we call weather) could not form.

Warming driven intensification of the Hadley circulation intensifies the subtropical jets (i.e. increases their vertical shear) and drives more baroclinic instability. That is the available potential energy to pump the baroclinc eddy growth in the subtropics is increasing. These eddies are an efficient way to transport both heat an momentum towards the poles. So the heat flux towards the poles intensifies and thanks to the fact that the longitudes converge to a point a vast amount of energy is being concentrated in a smaller volume as it is pumped to the poles. This is one of the main reasons that the poles are warming faster then lower latitudes. The other reason is that snow and ice albedo are decreasing thanks to this additional heat flux which is a positive feedback.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 13:51:41

Thanks for that, dis. For people who like visuals, you can try: http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met13 ... _cell.html

While you're here, I was wondering whether you have any thoughts on the 'Early Eocene Equable Climate problem"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Ea ... te_problem

Do any of the solutions posed at the above site seem reasonable (or wildly unreasonable, for that matter) to you?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 14:15:14

dohboi wrote:Thanks for that, dis. For people who like visuals, you can try: http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met13 ... _cell.html

While you're here, I was wondering whether you have any thoughts on the 'Early Eocene Equable Climate problem"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Ea ... te_problem

Do any of the solutions posed at the above site seem reasonable (or wildly unreasonable, for that matter) to you?


I was into this topic back when some of the original papers at Harvard were being published. PSCs are deus ex machina solution but in my view they are not needed. What is needed is an amplification of what we have already, namely tropopause region cirrus clouds. There is actually a type of moisture transport cell that amplifies with warming: moisture upwelling in the tropics penetrates just above the tropopause and returns into the troposphere at high latitudes. So there will be more cirrus cloud formation over the poles as warming increases. Cirrus clouds act like infrared traps just like PSCs. One of the ways the PSCs could increase is through more CH4 reaching the stratosphere in the tropics. But if we are going to invoke CH4 then we have to consider its direct warming of the polar air masses. I think it is likely that polar CH4 concentrations will increase in the troposphere polar regions and this will be a direct source of year round warming. The trick is for the release from sources (clathrates, permafrost and even current biological activity) to be faster than pumping to lower latitudes.

I do not have any information about how high tropospheric CH4 levels can go under fully warmed conditions such as those during the Eocene. If the polar regions and even lower latitude regions (e.g. ocean OMZ CH4 outgassing) increase enough, then there will be at least three effects all working at the same time:

1) direct CH4 heating, not just at the poles

2) more PSCs due to more CH4 reaching the stratosphere an being destroyed into CO2 and H2O; but warming will also lead to more pumping H2O into the stratosphere regardless of CH4. The physics of the tropical cold trap (around 18 km) is not all that clear; it is possible for freeze-drying to be circumvented by large supersaturations.

3) more cirrus in the tropopause region.

The Eocene is giving us a warning that there are factors that will enhance warming that right now are not given enough attention.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 06:11:44

Thanks again. Doesn't stratospheric cooling (a predicted and observed consequence of AGW heating of the troposphere) also promote more PSC formation, too?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 11:33:57

NSIDC SIE daily values

3/12/17 14.403
3/13/17 14.370
3/14/17 14.424 <- peak
3/15/17 14.407
3/16/17 14.273
3/17/17 14.242
3/18/17 14.178
3/19/17 14.180
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 11:45:09

Cid_Yama wrote:NSIDC SIE daily values

3/12/17 14.403
3/13/17 14.370
3/14/17 14.424 <- peak
3/15/17 14.407
3/16/17 14.273
3/17/17 14.242
3/18/17 14.178
3/19/17 14.180

So, it looks like the melting season has begun. Does anyone know how much earlier than usual? Heralding a relatively ice free Arctic it now appears
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