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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 13:35:53

evilgenius wrote:I've often wondered what these changes mean for the part of all this we can't see from above, the flow of molten or semi-molten rock underneath. Take Greenland, for instance, it's covered in ice. Isostasy means that it will remain at equilibrium as the ice covering it goes away. That also means it won't project as deeply into what lies below it. What's that going to mean for the flow of rock? I wonder if anybody is doing any studies about earthquake occurrence and Arctic melting, whether there is any correlation far enough out in the timeline from observed changes according to how fast rock moves? Same goes for if the hotspot under Iceland could be affected? You'd think not, but pressure differences have a way of changing complex systems in ways that are unexpected. Anyway, just a thought.

Yeah, Plantagenet, this warming trend during winter may be bad news for the Greenland ice cover, and that chain of land north of the Northwest Passage. It will be years yet before they melt out enough to cause the huge sea level rise most people fear, but along the way because they cover a huge surface area they will melt out enough to endanger places like the Nile Delta. We don't know if they are going to do that in a hurry, but if this trend keeps up you can say with remarkable certainty that they will in time. People argue that places like Greenland both lose and gain ice cover. What that means, though, is that for some period of the year there will be more water in the ocean, especially as the process goes through a tipping point. Even if some kind of remarkable feed back cycle we haven't thought about occurs and puts a stop to this I don't think at this point that the most vulnerable low lying areas can escape. It's so scary because the refugee crisis we have now is too much for us, and it is nothing like the one that changes like that would bring.

Basically, you can look upon events like Hurricane Katrina as one offs, or you can look at them as warnings of what is to come, telling you to make this or that stronger, or abandon one concept or another. Or you can refuse to change anything, not learn from the opportunity, and be totally unprepared for when anything similar, or worse, happens down the road. Katrina (and Sandy) was a trial run for how cities can be affected by sea level rise. It isn't just the emotional toll we should concentrate on. How effective were the countermeasures? Can we build sea walls and dykes that will work? If we can it would be easier to build them now, while we can still access the ground with relative ease. We have to consider what happens to them during storms. How does that change the calculus for whether people shouldn't simply move from low lying areas? What's the real time frame for moving people if the world does have to make those tough choices?


Because the chunk of plate the Greenland land mass sits on has a certain amount of flexibility it works kind of like a paper plate. If you stretch a sheet over the open top of a large box or similar object and set a paper plate on the taut sheet it is analogous to the continental plate floating on the magma below. If you pile ice cubes on the middle of the plate what happens? The center of the plate goes down just like you wrote, but the out edge of the plate also goes up a little bit. If you let the ice melt and run away the center of the plate will indeed rise back closer to its former altitude, but at the same time the outer edge of the island, much of which is mountainous, will also sink back down as the plate is not as heavily depressed in the center.

This kind of plate flexing is already a well known phenomenon, the Laurentide ice Sheet depressed everything in Eastern Canada and the Midwestern and eastern USA as far south as 39 degrees latitude in its extreme extent. as a result the state of Michigan and the province of Ontario are still rebounding in altitude even today, 17,000 years after the ice cap melted away. At the same time the coastal land in Virginia, Maryland and North Carolina is sinking as the shape of the continental plate returns to its pre ice cap shape.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 17:01:31

As it has taken 17,000 years for Canada to rebound after the ice melted we have quite a bit of time for one, the ice in Greenland to melt, and second for the land to rebound.
It will be way beyond our lifetimes and the human race will be lucky to still exist when it becomes observable.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 18:05:29

Hudson's Bay is an isostatic depression that is going to be rebounding for a freaking long time. If we had followed the glaciation cycle it would still be there by the time the next Laurentide ice sheet formed. That is it would never rebound. But thanks to humanity we may actually have the Hudson's Bay depression mostly disappear in 200,000 years.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 20:58:01

dissident wrote:Hudson's Bay is an isostatic depression that is going to be rebounding for a freaking long time. If we had followed the glaciation cycle it would still be there by the time the next Laurentide ice sheet formed. That is it would never rebound. But thanks to humanity we may actually have the Hudson's Bay depression mostly disappear in 200,000 years.

Are you optimistic that the human race will avoid destroying themselves between now and the year 202,017?
I have my doubts about that.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 13:17:38

From Wipneus:

Update 20170310.

Extent: -104.1 (-107k vs 2016, +25k vs 2015, -78k vs 2014, -861k vs 2013, -777k vs 2012)
Area: -84.5 (-34k vs 2016, +49k vs 2015, +103k vs 2014, -836k vs 2013, -696k vs 2012)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 15:31:10

So do you think we're now in the melt season already? Or will we have another re-freeze before the real melt sets in?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 16:48:19

dohboi wrote:So do you think we're now in the melt season already? Or will we have another re-freeze before the real melt sets in?

Melt?
Are you serious?
Alert Canada had a high today of -30C and on the opposite shore Tiksi Russia had a high of -16C. It will be a while yet before there is any melting in the arctic.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/CAXX0829:1:CA
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 17:13:28

Yeah, part of CA are looking pretty wild right now:

Hudsons Bay hit by massive blizzard
http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/churchill-ca ... -1.3321074

Newfoundland hit with hurricane force winds
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundl ... -1.4020934


But what's counted in official Arctic sea ice melt area is a big place, vt. It is obviously not likely to start melting in the middle of the pack.

The Bering Sea is included in the count (see sites like CT, linked below), and surface temps many places there are right around 0 C, warm enough for salty first year sea ice in salty water to melt. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 135,61.559

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... shade.html

And 24 hr sun will start kicking in at the North Pole in just a few days, though of course at a very steep angle. The sun's been up at least part of the day in Barrow since Jan. 23rd. https://weather.com/science/weather-exp ... set-august

And of course, as we just found out, we have very warm oceans now, globally, and currents doing odd things.

Time will tell, but this has been a very unusual winter so far in the Arctic. Certainly it has here in the North Country, too. How are have things been in The State of Freedom and Unity this winter?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 18:03:57

dohboi wrote: How are have things been in The State of Freedom and Unity this winter?

Minus -4 degrees F this morning with a high of + 6F Good stiff winds and wind chill I choose to not go about in. A foot or more of snow predicted in the next few days from a Nor'easter. It has been a pretty easy winter so far but it is getting even this week so might end up being average.
You remember the storms and the drifts you had to shovel through, not the nice days in between that didn't matter.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 18:41:01

"You remember the storms and the drifts you had to shovel through, not the nice days in between that didn't matter"

tru dat!
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 22:02:22

vtsnowedin wrote:
dohboi wrote:So do you think we're now in the melt season already?

Are you serious?


You know, VT, every time you say that you are proved wrong. Same with you declaring the end of the melt season in August last year.

link

Yes, the melt season has begun. And for deniers like yourself, you've had your last hurrah. There will be a blue ocean event this summer, by all indications, initiating abrupt climate change.

Get ready for reality's kick in the head. We've had enough of your trollish nonsense.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 17:51:08

It's possible we could have another bump up, but it sure does look like melting is starting.

Hard to tell for sure about volume yet, though.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 18:35:54

There was something I learned in high school, when it used to be cold in the place where I lived. That is that it is always coldest before the dawn. I learned that first hand in winter when I used to have to stand around waiting for the school bus and it was -20f. It used to be that cold over night for several months running. Now, it only gets that cold there once or twice a winter. Which is to say that the sun is not up yet. The ice levels could go up, if the cold before the dawn thing has any relevance. I've been watching ice levels for decades now, and have been surprised by increases taking place this time of year, even in years where the final numbers got pretty low. It certainly does look like it's leveled off, but anything could happen.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 18:48:09

dohboi wrote:It's possible we could have another bump up, but it sure does look like melting is starting.

Hard to tell for sure about volume yet, though.
OK I'll bite just to irritate Sid. Where in the Arctic region today are daytime high temperatures above 0 degrees C.
Barrow? Alert?Tiksi? Longyearbyen?
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/CAXX0829:1:CA
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 19:21:22

Wow, you really don't read anything I write, do you? I linked to a nullschool map showing where it was above freezing in the Bering Sea, but of course, sea ice doesn't form at freezing but a couple of degrees below, iirc...salt and all that...

But on the Atlantic side, it's warm pretty far north, too: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 380,71.340

And again, the Arctic, for the purposes of calculating sea ice, is much bigger than the Central Arctic Basin...
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 19:45:57

You can get into trouble trying to extrapolate certainty from observed events. The reason is that the temperature of a thing on an atomic level is not actually brought about by some kind of digital switch where it is either one thing or another. On an atomic level temperature is about probability. Everything is all possible temperatures at once. It is only that what conspires to determine the observed temperature, what is more probabilistic, is observed. In terms of the trends being discussed here, yes, there is a direct link, but that doesn't describe predictability. It explains the past.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 20:03:01

It's really quite simple. Cold arctic air has moved south into Central Canada and the NE United States so temperatures in that area are well below normal for this time of year. For a large mass of cold air to move south, there must be warm air moving north into the arctic somewhere else. Temperatures are expected to start rising on Tuesday where I live but we won't be back to normal seasonal temperatures until Saturday at the earliest. I can understand people being a little annoyed by the weather -- we'd normally be getting daytime highs above freezing and instead we are getting some of the coldest weather we have experienced all winter.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 21:05:31

dohboi wrote:Wow, you really don't read anything I write, do you? I linked to a nullschool map showing where it was above freezing in the Bering Sea, but of course, sea ice doesn't form at freezing but a couple of degrees below, iirc...salt and all that...

But on the Atlantic side, it's warm pretty far north, too: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 380,71.340

And again, the Arctic, for the purposes of calculating sea ice, is much bigger than the Central Arctic Basin...
The Atlantic side? Longyearbyen at the end of the Gulf stream is at -8 C and will have a temp high of -4 tomorrow.
Barrow Alaska on the side of the Bering strait that matters is at -16 C.
There is not any melting going on yet except for the ice cubes in your glass.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 21:37:56

I give up. I keep providing places (and links, which you don't, I notice) where it's above freezing and you provide places where it's not. Silly to continue in that vein. Best of luck.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 03:21:56

dohboi wrote:I give up. I keep providing places (and links, which you don't, I notice) where it's above freezing and you provide places where it's not. Silly to continue in that vein. Best of luck.


I like how you call him out that way. It's a very civil way of approaching him about how stubborn he is.The trouble is it makes you do a lot of untoward work. I tried to point out that getting into these specifics, citing what the temperature is in some certain place at a certain time of year, doesn't recognize the trends. He is doing that in deliberate ignorance of what the overall weather patterns are doing. I suppose you could say he is in denial over this winter's jet stream oscillations, how vast they were. Yet, the ice cover retreated several times when the area was in total darkness. Oh, it can do that at other times, but look at the charts! When I said that about temperature I was also trying to be civil. I don't hate people for not agreeing with me, and I gather you don't either. I'm probably less inclined to do the work you have to keep at my side, though.
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