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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 06 Mar 2017, 22:19:47

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/06/ ... y-of-2017/

Warm Winds Take Aim at Chukchi as Arctic Sea Ice Volume Hits Record Lows


Image

We're likely at the end of re-freeze season this year--the most ice we are going to get--yet we are at about the same point as the height of melt season (Sept.) when records first began back in 1979.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 10:22:04

Nice graph showing the swirling round the toilet bowl on the way down. We're almost flushed.

Too bad so many can't grasp the relevance of this and many other environmental indicators.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 11:08:42

dissident wrote:Nice graph showing the swirling round the toilet bowl on the way down. We're almost flushed.

Too bad so many can't grasp the relevance of this and many other environmental indicators.


I agree. Instead, you get people trying to say that if only we had records going back another hundred years it would be plain that the ice used to melt out this much. When they get shown they can't possibly be right, they hide in the you can't disprove me argument. The deniers are evolving. They have had to come to accept that climate change is occurring. Now they cling to how it mustn't be caused by man, but must be a cyclical thing happening in nature. It makes you wonder where they will go next. Honestly, you could see them overreacting at some point, much like how hardliners can get a lot of things through in reaction to terrorism even with the threat to your average American remaining small. What will they do when the pendulum swings and the climate threat is no longer small? When it is still possible to fairly address the situation will they over do it? Your guess is as good as mine.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 11:49:19

I was just noticing how months of the year group together in the same fashion that happens with CO2 values or any other sine wave type of function. March-April-May are clustered together, so presuming the trend continues to follow that pattern if March is down in the same way January and February were for 2017 that indicates April and June are liable to be at least as far down, and that is before the heavy melting really sets in with June.

Knowing that go back and trace June from the start of the graph, originally June and February moved in close synchronicity, then with the massive reduction in 2007 June broke to the lower January levels of ice conditions. In 1979 June Arctic Sea Ice was about 30 million km^3 and bounced around a little under that gradually declining to 25 Million km^3 in 1995, then in 2007 it broke under 20 Million km^3. If June continues to track with January in 2017 we will break through 15 Million km^3 this year!

Typically the decline from June through September is 10-13 Million km^3. IF 2017 follows that pattern and IF we hit 15 Million km^3 in June then we will be in the 2-5 Million km^3 remaining at the end of the melt season.

The thing to remember however is ice caps have tipping points. When a large lake freezes over you often switch from solid ice cover to open water in less than two weeks as the local conditions hit the key values that let sunlight penetrate and air temperatures rise just enough to rapidly collapse the cover. The truth is, we expect the Arctic basin to exhibit the same behavior, but we don't know where that tipping point is. Generally rapid melt takes place in the window of the last two weeks of July and first two weeks of August, at least for the decade I have been following the data. But with June at such a low start this year it is possible the rapid melting will start earlier and finish later, and if that extends rapid melt even a week on each end it will seriously risk a blue water event.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 13:45:09

Nice discussion, all. Cool comparison with the CO2 graphs. And yes, I really think we are now watching a tipping point in the process of actually tipping.

I should point out that my statement above was based on evidence that we are about to see significant melt in what should be the final ten weeks of freezing. We do seem to be approaching peak freeze wrt area/extent. This year, that may carry over to volume as well.

In any case, here is another version of the spiral graph laid out in more conventional style. Perhaps other patterns will jump out at people from this one?

Image

(as usual, double click and choose 'view image' to see the whole graph if you can't right off)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 14:34:21

It looks to me like '14-'15 was the final gasp and the downhill fall of '16-'17 will end below the trend lines and will be a blue water event before '20. When this occurs before late September and the water starts being heated the trend lines will all be broken. We may be lucky to see ice ever again.

No telling what happens after that...
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 15:25:26

Here comes the melting. Expect volume peak a month ahead of time.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 18:51:31

I very much find temperature anomaly maps useless unless they are accompanied by real world temperature readings. Even a 30 degree positive anomaly is not all that exciting if the average temperature is -40 C after the anomaly has taken place. And realistically any anomaly in the +/- 10 C range is unusual, but not exceptional. Just posting an anomaly map doesn't provide sufficient data to determine just how freakish things are.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 19:55:23

Cid, yeah, that's the map I was thinking of when I said it seemed possible/likely this year that we could have peak extent and perhaps volume early.

And yeah, T, it's nice to have absolute temps as well to compare. But a large anomaly on the hot side this time of year does suggest, at least, that you won't have the kind of increases in ice formation that you would normally expect to have. Right?

But yeah, you would need to have absolute temps to know whether actual (surface) melt is to be expected, that along with indications of (lack of) cloudiness.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 06:02:08

dohboi wrote:And yeah, T, it's nice to have absolute temps as well to compare. But a large anomaly on the hot side this time of year does suggest, at least, that you won't have the kind of increases in ice formation that you would normally expect to have. Right?

But yeah, you would need to have absolute temps to know whether actual (surface) melt is to be expected, that along with indications of (lack of) cloudiness.


It is March 8 as I type this, much like September 8 that means the change in ice mass is almost zero day to day. The ice build up mostly happens in December, January and early February. Sure it is of academic interest to some extent, but realistically the physics that drive the system mean the most a 'heat wave' to day would do is cause a little surface melting that doesn't actually mean much. UNLESS that heat wave is really extreme and lasts all season, which is impossible to predict and can not even be evaluated with a comparison of actual surface conditions.

If the temperature in March is below freezing at the surface by more than -5 C then the weak spring sun has no chance of causing melting. If the surface temperature is +5 C then melting will be taking place without concerns for sunlight adding energy. That is why absolute temperatures are far more useful information than 'anomalies' which only tell you things are not following the averages of the past. An anomaly can tell you that you are deviating from a long term trend, but without data about that long term trend it is useless.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 17:18:56

"...without data about that long term trend it is useless"

Well, alright then :-D

Image

So we should generally expect 2-3 thousand cubic k of ice gain between about now and the end of the freeze season. I'm just wondering if this will be the year when we basically don't get anything like this much ice gain, perhaps peaking a month or two early. Time will tell (if trump doesn't block all efforts to keep track of this kind of data by then).
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 18:18:58

I know we used to have the guessing game each year where the ice would end the season. This year I fear we might actually get that blue water event we have only been speculating on before.

IIRC Back in 2005-07 the arctic models were predicting it would be 2070 before sea ice was down to what we got in 2007 and even in 2100 we would not have reached a blue water event. Now we are just one eecade past 2007 and this could realistically be the year it happes, 83+ years ahead of the 2005 model pedictions.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 18:32:59

[and this could realistically be the year it happes, 83+ years ahead of the 2005 model pedictions.

Yes, from the condition of the ice to the degree of warmth intruding now into the Arctic, it seems we are poised to officially call a blue ocean event. We=someone. Then I think we may have to then expect truly dramatic events to happen. 8O :shock:
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 20:21:04

Goodbye, remaining multi-year ice. Fram Export to the North Atlantic is leaving the station.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 20:37:47

onlooker wrote:
[and this could realistically be the year it happes, 83+ years ahead of the 2005 model pedictions.

Yes, from the condition of the ice to the degree of warmth intruding now into the Arctic, it seems we are poised to officially call a blue ocean event. We=someone. Then I think we may have to then expect truly dramatic events to happen. 8O :shock:
[/quote]

Yup.

It's the beginning of the end of the world.

I had a meeting with an Egyptian Prof from the American University here in Cairo yesterday. His maps predict eventually there will be about 9 million refugees from the lower Nile Delta due to sea level rise. I suggested he needed to double everything--rise twice as fast, twice as high sea level rise, twice as many people displaced---and that's just for starters 8)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 20:43:43

Ballooned right up over the last couple days.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 21:14:54

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado, which tracks sea ice trends, warned in a news release on Tuesday that satellite data gaps may soon cause sea ice observations to go dark for a few years. The specific timeframe they're concerned about is the period between now and 2023.

link

And in further news, the Trump administration attacks the NSIDC for their news release on Tuesday.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 07:54:40

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 08:44:21

No need to correct him. He'll figure it out.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 09 Mar 2017, 12:40:09

I've often wondered what these changes mean for the part of all this we can't see from above, the flow of molten or semi-molten rock underneath. Take Greenland, for instance, it's covered in ice. Isostasy means that it will remain at equilibrium as the ice covering it goes away. That also means it won't project as deeply into what lies below it. What's that going to mean for the flow of rock? I wonder if anybody is doing any studies about earthquake occurrence and Arctic melting, whether there is any correlation far enough out in the timeline from observed changes according to how fast rock moves? Same goes for if the hotspot under Iceland could be affected? You'd think not, but pressure differences have a way of changing complex systems in ways that are unexpected. Anyway, just a thought.

Yeah, Plantagenet, this warming trend during winter may be bad news for the Greenland ice cover, and that chain of land north of the Northwest Passage. It will be years yet before they melt out enough to cause the huge sea level rise most people fear, but along the way because they cover a huge surface area they will melt out enough to endanger places like the Nile Delta. We don't know if they are going to do that in a hurry, but if this trend keeps up you can say with remarkable certainty that they will in time. People argue that places like Greenland both lose and gain ice cover. What that means, though, is that for some period of the year there will be more water in the ocean, especially as the process goes through a tipping point. Even if some kind of remarkable feed back cycle we haven't thought about occurs and puts a stop to this I don't think at this point that the most vulnerable low lying areas can escape. It's so scary because the refugee crisis we have now is too much for us, and it is nothing like the one that changes like that would bring.

Basically, you can look upon events like Hurricane Katrina as one offs, or you can look at them as warnings of what is to come, telling you to make this or that stronger, or abandon one concept or another. Or you can refuse to change anything, not learn from the opportunity, and be totally unprepared for when anything similar, or worse, happens down the road. Katrina (and Sandy) was a trial run for how cities can be affected by sea level rise. It isn't just the emotional toll we should concentrate on. How effective were the countermeasures? Can we build sea walls and dykes that will work? If we can it would be easier to build them now, while we can still access the ground with relative ease. We have to consider what happens to them during storms. How does that change the calculus for whether people shouldn't simply move from low lying areas? What's the real time frame for moving people if the world does have to make those tough choices?
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