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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 11 Feb 2017, 17:03:42

onlooker wrote:You deniers are really stretching your denial here. Anyone with a working brain can see something very anomalous is happening in the Arctic now. Like being on the verge of a relatively ice free Arctic sea. Duh.

Well only in the recent recorded history, would be great to know the sea ice extent figures during the 7th century or thereabouts when the Vikings colonised Greenland. Or more recently in the 1930-50 period.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 11 Feb 2017, 17:16:14

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense ... exist.html
According to this article "Ice has been a relatively constant feature of the Arctic for most of the past 36 million years," and "The study provides new evidence that the last major gap ended about 2.6 million years ago, after which ice sheets spread southward and humanity’s ancestors began to respond to colder temperatures in Africa, forcing adaptation like the use of stone tools. Humans themselves wouldn’t evolve for more than a million more years."
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Feb 2017, 18:32:40

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... c31d3695e6

It’s about 50 degrees warmer than normal near the North Pole, yet again
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Feb 2017, 19:04:56

dohboi wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/10/its-about-50-degrees-warmer-than-normal-near-the-north-pole/?utm_term=.45c31d3695e6

It’s about 50 degrees warmer than normal near the North Pole, yet again

This story is total BS if you take the time to check it out for yourself.
Consider actual temps from various sites around the arctic rim you can access here.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/CAXX0829:1:CA
I look at Alert Canada , Barrow Alaska, Tiksi Russia and Longyearbyn Norway and a few others to get a reading on actual conditions. (remember Longyearbyn sits in the end of the gulf stream and is always warmer then the rest.
Seven or even eight degrees above normal? That is really happening and is bad enough but fifty degrees? That is pure BS and those that put that forward as truth need to be shot.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 12 Feb 2017, 20:54:47

VT,

It says NEAR THE NORTH POLE.

Not everywhere or on average.

It may be alarmsist for those that can't read. Let's not encourage that trend.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby clif » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 01:39:51

Friday’s temperatures very near the North Pole are about 50 degrees warmer than normal, according to a temperature analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Reports from the ground offer further evidence of the unusual intensity of the high-latitude warmth.

On Wednesday, as the flux of warm air surged into the Arctic, the northernmost land station in the world in northern Greenland shot up 43 degrees (24 Celsius) in just 12 hours, cresting the melting point:

World's northernmost land station @dmidk's Kap Morris Jessup on tip of #Greenland went from -22C to +2C in 12 hrs https://t.co/D6iFvWJ0Kr pic.twitter.com/EZVRLG7YnV

— WMO | OMM (@WMO) February 10, 2017

Early in the week, weather station Nord, in northeast Greenland, broke its all-time February high-temperature record by almost four degrees (two Celsius), the Danish Meteorological Institute reported.


But some cranky internet blogger hates that fact and wants somebody shot.

That is pure BS and those that put that forward as truth need to be shot.
8O

Hmmm, whom should I believe? :roll:

NOAA and the Danish Meteorological Institute, or some crank who wants to kill people for reporting news he doesn't like, because if that cranky blogger ( who advocated shooting people he disagrees with) actually READ the story linked he would see links to the FACTS they reported ...............................................................
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 02:51:41

thanks Clif
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 07:05:13

Thanks, folks.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 11:00:46

The breakdown of the polar front jet has now established a new pattern that nobody anticipated (that I know of) back 15 years ago: routine warm air mass penetration to the pole. There is no longer a dome of cold air shored up by a circumpolar circulation that shields the polar cap from middle-latitude air and vice versa. Now we have air mass excursions 45 degrees latitude in extent.

The net result for the Arctic polar cap is that it will be much warmer in winter on average than under the previous stable regime. This is in spite of the fact that globally averaged the warming is still very small. In fact, the warmer pole is actually leading to a colder middle latitude belt but due to the large difference in surface area, the cooling is much smaller than the warming. At the end of the day, the sea ice is getting stressed to disappear and the Arctic Ocean is not cooling as fast in winter through ice-free zones as it would have under the previous atmospheric regime. (But it is this open ocean heat flux that is causing the new atmospheric regime in the first place).
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 18 Feb 2017, 18:57:56

“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 12:02:11

dissident wrote:The breakdown of the polar front jet has now established a new pattern that nobody anticipated (that I know of) back 15 years ago: routine warm air mass penetration to the pole. There is no longer a dome of cold air shored up by a circumpolar circulation that shields the polar cap from middle-latitude air and vice versa. Now we have air mass excursions 45 degrees latitude in extent.

The net result for the Arctic polar cap is that it will be much warmer in winter on average than under the previous stable regime. This is in spite of the fact that globally averaged the warming is still very small. In fact, the warmer pole is actually leading to a colder middle latitude belt but due to the large difference in surface area, the cooling is much smaller than the warming. At the end of the day, the sea ice is getting stressed to disappear and the Arctic Ocean is not cooling as fast in winter through ice-free zones as it would have under the previous atmospheric regime. (But it is this open ocean heat flux that is causing the new atmospheric regime in the first place).


I was just looking at a composite infrared timelapse of the Northern Hemisphere over the United States. The flow is in one huge distended loop from one side to the other. I was thinking about what you said above when I watched it.
Image
Until recently, that one huge loop was broken up into two smaller ones that basically covered the same distance. I guess with the return of the sun things are changing?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 13:17:05

dolanbaker wrote:Well only in the recent recorded history, would be great to know the sea ice extent figures during the 7th century or thereabouts when the Vikings colonised Greenland. Or more recently in the 1930-50 period.


All we would have from earlier times are records from expeditions and perhaps whaling ships which would only provide details on ice conditions in a small part of the arctic. One good example would be the RCMP schooner St. Roch which was the second vessel to complete the North West Passage in a two season voyage from 1940 to 1942. She was able to return through the North West Passage in a single season and using a more northerly route than her first voyage in 1944. It was a matter of luck that she was able to do the return trip in one season as ice conditions were unusually favourable. As a schooner the St. Roch had no ability to bash through ice like an icebreaker would be able to. Given the immense challenges the crew had in sailing through areas where there was still a lot of ice, I think they would have been utterly astonished at the idea that ice conditions in future years could improve to the point that a large cruise ship, Crystal Serenity, would be able to travel the passage on a tight schedule and without encountering any ice.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 13:26:51

The Vikings may have encountered a period as warm as today for a few decades which encouraged them to colonize Greenland only to have a change in climate do them in.
It is still pretty darn cold up there if you aren't dressed for the weather.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/RSXX1625:1:RS
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/CAXX0829:1:CA
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 16:43:07

It's starting to look as though the melt season may have started already:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 18:27:43

dohboi wrote:It's starting to look as though the melt season may have started already:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Above 80 degrees North it will be a while yet.
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/wee ... lights.pdf
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 18:30:09

Just a couple weeks till the sun rises over the north pole, and south of there, they are getting more and more sun every day.

But yeah, the central basin is rarely the first to go. If it did, that would really be a story!

(at least for ice nerds like us! :-D :-D )
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 02 Mar 2017, 11:15:58

Pretty soon here you can expect a news blip concerning how the Arctic Ice maximum was the lowest ever. That's about as much attention as most people will give it, reading the headline. They won't consider how the ice level hasn't touched even two standard deviations of the low side of the consensus norm for prior periods the entire length of the buildup. Some people here have anticipated that, by trying to say that we can't know what recent enough to matter levels may have been, but what kind of nonsense is that? As long as man has had anything to do with the Arctic it has been frozen to the extent we collectively understand. Flat Earthers need not apply. Special exceptions for doubts are unreasonable. This isn't the time to pervert the truth because you have to be right, or your agenda needs some other interpretation. That being said, I'm not willing to predict a new low this year at melt time. You can't extrapolate that from current conditions. I'm going to watch for certain things, though. I want to know if the character of the ice that has formed during the buildup is sufficiently different to change what happens during the melt. I want to know if the coming of the sun will change the weather pattern that has been dumping heat into the Arctic all winter. I'm definitely curious if weather patterns in the northern hemisphere, where is the jet stream, will change in some way as heat transfers across the globe. I can tell you right now that I'm afraid we've hit a new normal, but I've seen enough since I've followed the ice pack not to believe that until there is more proof. I have a hunch that the refuseniks who are now in charge are about to get their comeuppance, but nature never listens to me. I'm mostly glad of that.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 03 Mar 2017, 18:08:06

Arctic heat over next week or so.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Fri 03 Mar 2017, 18:47:43

Looks like the warming Arctic is affecting the summer time circulation as well:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/e ... 61768.full

I did not expect this to be much of a consideration but it makes sense since the Arctic is colder relative to the mid-high latitudes in summer as well.

Since the subtropical jets have not diminished and in fact have intensified thanks to the amplification/spreading of the Hadley circulation, the mid-latitude flow deceleration implies a much greater degree of zonal asymmetry, including blocking events. The same thrashing effect as for the polar front jet is at play, but with the added complication that the subtropical synoptic eddies pump momentum into middle latitudes. The added momentum from the increased subtropical eddy flux is not enough to restore the old regime and so a more zonally asymmetric regime is born.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Fri 03 Mar 2017, 18:54:55

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5070534/

The significant changes in SLP appear over the latitude between 20–40°N and 55–75°N. These regions correspond to the latitudes with enhanced descending motion and ascending motion during the transition period. Therefore, the intensification and northward expansion of the Ferrel cell induce the dipole SLP difference pattern between midlatitude and high latitude with a node at 50°N. The switching point at 50°N for the positive and negative SLP anomaly coincides roughly with the center location of the Ferrel cell. This suggests that the intensification of the Ferrel cell is responsible for the intensification of subtropical high and subpolar low, and thereby, this seesaw SLP anomaly pattern transports relatively more heat from the subtropics to higher latitude and subpolar region via the midlatitude, compared to the reference period.


There is sea-saw mode associated with shifting the Hadley circulation poleward that enhances heat flux to the poles. Under today's conditions we have the warming polar cap feeding this pattern from the pole. This is yet another positive heat flux feedback.
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