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Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Discussions related to the direct environmental impacts of energy exploitation, development and use including climate change.

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Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby careinke » Sun 12 Jan 2014, 19:00:44

Is there a 2014 Arctic Ice thread? Can't seem to find it. Anyway, we could have a record low for winter arctic ice this year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby americandream » Sun 12 Jan 2014, 19:19:43

careinke wrote:Is there a 2014 Arctic Ice thread? Can't seem to find it. Anyway, we could have a record low for winter arctic ice this year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html


Not sure unfortunately. Dohboi or Tanada ought to know.
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Re: Climate Chaos Is Here Pt. 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 12 Jan 2014, 20:45:29

careinke wrote:Is there a 2014 Arctic Ice thread? Can't seem to find it. Anyway, we could have a record low for winter arctic ice this year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html


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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 12 Jan 2014, 22:08:46

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... arctic.png

Arctic Sea Ice has taken a sharp dip during the blast of Arctic air mass into the North American interior. It isn't the first time something like this has happened in the winter, the key is how long before it resumes winter growth and will this depress the March 21 maximum coverage for the year? 10 weeks till we hit annual maximum cover.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby americandream » Sun 12 Jan 2014, 22:38:45

Tanada wrote:http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

Arctic Sea Ice has taken a sharp dip during the blast of Arctic air mass into the North American interior. It isn't the first time something like this has happened in the winter, the key is how long before it resumes winter growth and will this depress the March 21 maximum coverage for the year? 10 weeks till we hit annual maximum cover.


I wonder whether this (cross zone vortex meandering) is exceptional given the long term trend in Arctic ice displacement (as opposed to previous meanderings) or just part of that norm and separate from the ice displacement. I heard somewhere that the former was the case and related to the displacement suggesting another magnitude of vortex meandering.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 02:49:11

Sea ice area only refers to the area that has a covering of solid ice or icebergs, icebergs are usually formed when they break away from the main ice sheet. If the extent is lower that to me says that the ice sheet is staying more intact so therefore it is stronger & thicker than usual.

Image

The concentration of ice is higher than in previous winters.
follow the link to see it properly http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 05:00:08

As a general rule icebergs in the North are formed directly from Glaciers feeding into the sea and those glaciers slow down substantially in the coldest months of the year so winter icebergs are much less common than warm season ice bergs. There are substantial numbers of icebergs each year and not all of them make it to the open sea where they are pushed south by currents until they melt. Some of each years icebergs take months or even years to get into the open ocean, like the one the Titanic struck that came loose from the ice pack in May 1912.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 08:31:18

T, good points. And of course ice bergs have never been more than a tiny fraction of total sea ice. That will change as regular sea ice at the end of the season becomes almost non-existent. That is why the term is usually 'essentially ice free' when people talk about the end of (regular) Arctic sea ice, meaning under 1 million square kilometers.

Of course, at that point the denialists will whoop and holler that everyone is wrong, that there is still some sea ice, and so there is nothing to worry about. It really is sad how predictable these jokers are.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby rollin » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 09:24:18

To look at an annual result is of limited value. The trend for sea ice cover in the Arctic regions has been to be much lower than average. The more important variable is sea ice volume, which has been on a down trend for many years.

With the ice getting thinner and a higher proportion of it being formed in the current year, it will not be long before most of the ice is gone during late summer. Once that happens, the large albedo decreases will push the ice formation point to almost all new ice formed during winter.

At that point the infamous Northwest Passage will be open much of the year and BAU will get a huge boast. There is a lot of money to made from global warming. Not only transport, but new mining and drilling opportunities open up as the ice melts and summers get hotter in the Arctic and in Greenland. Of course the many money-making opportunities for new energy sources, new construction techniques and mandates, mitigation of ocean rise problems and storm damage, and agricultural changes will all make a large number of people rich. So don't think that loss of the arctic ice will stifle BAU, it will only increase it.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 13 Jan 2014, 09:49:20

The relative absence of multi-year ice is what will enable the shipping season to be extended. First year ice is thinner and weaker than multi-year ice. However, I think the expectation that we are going to have a lot of resource development in the Arctic is exaggerated. The cost of operating in the Arctic will remain high, winters will still have extremely low temperatures and very little daylight, and there will continue to be a large dependency on expensive air transport. As a result only resource deposits of exceptionally high quality will be economic to exploit. The Polaris Mine which operated on Little Cornwallis Island from 1981 to 2002 was feasible primarily because the ore contained 14.1% zinc -- an exceptionally rich ore in comparison to zinc mines elsewhere in the world.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby litesong » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 00:16:13

Does anyone care to speak of Arctic sea ice VOLUME? VOLUME seems to be less changeable to weather than Arctic sea ice area or extent. Toxic AGW deniers like to mention sea ice area when it suits their purposes. When toxic AGW deniers crowed about 2013 Arctic sea ice 'recovery' from the low of Sept. 2012, they loved quoting 50% & 60%, as if their ice age had begun. However, I thought it interesting at their crowing time, that Arctic sea ice VOLUME for that month was only 15% greater than this decade's Arctic sea ice Volume average. As of the beginning of December 2013, the difference was down to 7%. For the beginning of January 2014, the difference was 3%.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby rollin » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 16:59:49

Here is the PIOMAS graph of Arctic sea ice volume anomaly from 1979 to 2013. The trend is a loss of 3200 cubic kilometers of ice per decade. This is out of an average annual maxima of 28000 km3 and average minima of about 13 km3. Lately the values have been much lower, 22,000 km3 maxima and 5000 km3 minima.
At that rate we may see no ice (minima) in a 10 to 15 years (depending upon other feedbacks).
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress ... rentV2.png
Daily PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice volume
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress ... tV2_CY.png
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 19:18:43

Here's Wipneus's version with various trend lines:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctische ... edirects=0
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 14 Jan 2014, 22:54:37

@ d

from w's graph

only one example of significant increase being followed by
another increase in the next year

and that was back in the 80's

so my money is on a significant decline this year but not a new record

still on track for essentially ice free by 2020
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 Jan 2014, 09:10:38

I pulled up the link for viewing the graph without having to dload it
https://sites.google.com/site/arctische ... -trnd1.png
Looking at the graph brings up an interesting reality, half the projections show an ice free Arctic Ocean on or before September 2018, the rest show it in 2020 or continuing at a very low level of ice cover after 2020.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 16 Jan 2014, 01:09:15

Thanks, T. Do you know how to shrink that graph so it will all fit within the post? The most crucial part is getting cut off as it is.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 16 Jan 2014, 01:46:32

dohboi wrote:Thanks, T. Do you know how to shrink that graph so it will all fit within the post? The most crucial part is getting cut off as it is.

Just grab (right-click in my Chromium browser) the image URL:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctische ... -trnd1.png

You can also zoom (from some menu or other), or try holding down Control key and pressing minus key.

As your eyes get older you will have much use for these tricks. :P
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby rollin » Thu 16 Jan 2014, 13:40:22

I wonder what the anti-climate change/global warming yahoos will say when the Arctic Ocean is fully revealed for the first time?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby basil_hayden » Thu 16 Jan 2014, 13:47:11

rollin wrote:I wonder what the anti-climate change/global warming yahoos will say when the Arctic Ocean is fully revealed for the first time?


That would depend upon how soon after the artic is ice free for the Laurentide Ice Sheet to reform, oh climate change/global warming yahoo.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2014

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 16 Jan 2014, 15:58:09

Rollin, you should know by now that their positions have nothing to do with reality. Rush has informed his Limbaughtomites that the Solar Vortex was just made up a couple weeks ago--I'm sure they all believe every word--has nothing to do with reality.

The main thing is that there will be some kind of ice, even at the end of the summer melt season, in the Arctic Ocean for a long, long time--glaciers from the Canadian Archipelago and from the Greenland Ice Sheet will continue to calve in that direction till all that ice is gone.

So the denialists' idiot wind will keep blowing forever, shouting, "Ha, ha, ha, ha--all those alarmists predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean. But look! There's still some ice cubed floating around. So that proves that the whole thing is a hoax!"

(Hmmm, I'm beginning to get good at this--maybe I should get a job from Heartland or the Koch bro's. I hear they have a lot of cash on hand to hand out to anyone who wants to spread lies and half-truths on blogs. :lol: 8O :twisted: )

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