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Antarctica 2017

Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 06 May 2017, 22:10:31

Record warm temperatures in Antarctica result in record low sea ice

antarctic-sea-ice-climate-change-global-warming-

Sea ice extent around Antarctica is hitting record lows in 2017 just as it has been doing for some time now in the Arctic.

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Note the record low extent of Antarctic sea ice in 2017

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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 07 May 2017, 10:03:16

@ rd.....and you should read the quote you provided , which talked about the ice shelves on the western side fluctuating .....not those on the eastern side.....according to the quote you provided


here was one of the quotes:

Specifically, there is evidence that ice shelves on the west and northeast of the Antarctic Peninsula have behaved differently, experiencing previous retreat events associated with warm periods in the middle and early Holocene.


in what world is "northeast" the same as "west"? :roll:

The other quote references a comparison with the "thicker ice shelves on the east", key being the thickness as a constraint on collapse.

I suggest you read the paper
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby dissident » Sun 07 May 2017, 11:05:02

Plantagenet wrote:Record warm temperatures in Antarctica result in record low sea ice

antarctic-sea-ice-climate-change-global-warming-

Sea ice extent around Antarctica is hitting record lows in 2017 just as it has been doing for some time now in the Arctic.

Image
Note the record low extent of Antarctic sea ice in 2017

Cheers!


But Antactica is cooling, how can this be...

Clearly some small regional trend means precisely f*ck all in terms of the subject of Antarctic warming. But denier-tards will have you believe that one of the hairs on a dog's tail can wag the dog.
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 07 May 2017, 12:08:48

But Antactica is cooling, how can this be...

Clearly some small regional trend means precisely f*ck all in terms of the subject of Antarctic warming. But denier-tards will have you believe that one of the hairs on a dog's tail can wag the dog.


Hold on I seem to remember back in 2014 when Antarctica set a record for largest sea ice coverage a number of you folks were arguing that it had to do with a warming world and melting ice which supplied fresh water and hence resulted in the large sea ice coverage. Hence climate change equal Antarctic warming equal larger sea ice extent.

Now three years later Antarctica has an all time low sea ice extent abd you are arguing that warming has resulted in less sea ice coverage or climate change equal Antarctic warming which now apparently equals less sea ice extent. So which is? You can't have it both ways.

From what I've read the latest change in sea ice extent has something to do with the recent El Nino...i.e. higher surface SST in southern ocean

Certainly on a overall aspect Antarctica is not warming to any extent....relatively unchanged during the satellite instrumental period

A plot from UAH

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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 07 May 2017, 12:48:25

rockdoc123 wrote:
From what I've read the latest change in sea ice extent has something to do with the recent El Nino...i.e. higher surface SST in southern ocean


That seems reasonable.....Certainly the 2015-16 El Nino warmed things up. However lets be clear that we're having record warmth and low sea ice NOW, not in 2015-16 during the El Nino.

The record warmth and the record low sea ice extent in Antarctica in 2017 are occurring when we're not in an El Nino event.

----------------------------

The El Nino connection is interesting. The last el Nino ended in 2016 but curiously, we are well on our way to having another El Nino start in late 2017. That is uncommon, but not unprecedented. We had a multi-year sequence of El Ninos in the 1990s. However, Antarctic sea ice did NOT hit record lows in the 1990s.

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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 07 May 2017, 13:53:42

The southern ocean temperatures were at a significant high in December of 2016 (the last measures I can find), I suspect that takes sometime for the heat to dissipate
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby dissident » Sun 07 May 2017, 14:55:23

Stick to rocks, roc-tard. ENSO in the polar regions cannot begin to explain ocean temperatures. ENSO is a fundamentally low latitude phenomenon. It does impact barcoclinic eddy storm tracks but there is simply not much heat transfer to the polar oceans via the atmosphere since the it is a short lived oscillation as far as ocean dynamical timescales are concerned. Invoking ENSO as an explanation for the Antarctic sea ice decline trend is as retarded as invoking the solar cycle. The atmosphere ocean system has been seeing these oscillations for millions of years and is in dynamical (including thermal) equilibrium with them. (Also, ENSO is not an external forcing of the system and thus cannot drive any long term energy accumulation in the system). Only an ENSO trend could be correlated with and SST trend. Denier roc-tard would be the first to deny any ENSO trend since it would reflect climate change.

Sea ice reflects actual, long-term warming effects. Nitpicking of a few weather stations in a small part of Antarctica without a shred of consideration for ocean thermal anomalies reflects simple retardation.
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 07 May 2017, 16:00:21

Sea ice reflects actual, long-term warming effects. Nitpicking of a few weather stations in a small part of Antarctica without a shred of consideration for ocean thermal anomalies reflects simple retardation.


It always astounds me how someone who claims to be a climate scientist can continue to behave like an irresponsible teenager.

First of all what the plot I showed was from UAH satellite data....hardly a few weather stations nor hardly a small part of Antarctica.

Only an ENSO trend could be correlated with and SST trend.


Apparently you are confusing Arctic sea ice and Antarctic sea ice. Unlike the Arctic the trend during the instrumental period for Antarctica has been for gradual increase in sea ice extent, the recent 2016 low level of sea ice extent is an anomaly to that trend.

ENSO in the polar regions cannot begin to explain ocean temperatures. ENSO is a fundamentally low latitude phenomenon. It does impact barcoclinic eddy storm tracks but there is simply not much heat transfer to the polar oceans via the atmosphere since the it is a short lived oscillation as far as ocean dynamical timescales are concerned. Invoking ENSO as an explanation for the Antarctic sea ice decline trend is as retarded as invoking the solar cycle.


well first off you seem to be suggesting here that southern SST have not responded to the recent EL Nino....please explain the plot of southern ocean SST I just showed which clearly shows a sharp response in 2016.

Also it seems you are suggesting there is no connection between ENSO and Antarctic climate whether it be SST or SAT. That is at odds with a wealth of literature

Yuan, X. 2004. ENSO-related impacts on Antarctic sea ice: a synthesis of phenomenon and mechanisms. Antarctic Science. V 14,4, pp 415-425. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102004002238

Many remote and local climate variabilities influence Antarctic sea ice at different time scales. The strongest sea ice teleconnection at the interannual time scale was found between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and a high latitude climate mode named the Antarctic Dipole. The Antarctic Dipole is characterized by an out-of-phase relationship between sea ice and surface temperature anomalies in the South Pacific and South Atlantic, manifesting itself and persisting 3–4 seasons after being triggered by the ENSO forcing. This study examines the life cycles of ENSO warm and cold events in the tropics and associated evolution of the ADP in high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. In evaluating the mechanisms that form the ADP, the study suggests a synthesized scheme that links these high latitude processes with ENSO teleconnection in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. The synthesized scheme suggests that the two main mechanisms responsible for the formation/maintenance of the Antarctic Dipole are the heat flux due to the mean meridional circulation of the regional Ferrel Cell and regional anomalous circulation generated by stationary eddies. The changes in the Hadley Cell, the jet stream in the subtropics, and the Rossby Wave train associated with ENSO link the tropical forcing to these high latitude processes. Moreover, these two mechanisms operate in phase and are comparable in magnitude. The positive feedback between the jet stream and stationary eddies in the atmosphere, the positive feedback within the air-sea-ice system, and the seasonality all reinforce the anomalies, resulting in persistent Antarctic Dipole anomalies
.

Clem, K. R. et al, 2016. The relative influence of ENSO and SAM on Antarctic peninsula climate. Jour Geoph Res, V 121, 16, pp 9324-9341. DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025305

Recent warming of the Antarctic Peninsula during austral autumn, winter, and spring has been linked to sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic, while warming of the northeast Peninsula during summer has been linked to a strengthening of westerly winds traversing the Peninsula associated with a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Here we demonstrate that circulation changes associated with the SAM dominate interannual temperature variability across the entire Antarctic Peninsula during both summer and autumn, while relationships with tropical Pacific SST variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are strongest and statistically significant primarily during winter and spring only. We find the ENSO-Peninsula temperature relationship during autumn to be weak on interannual time scales and regional circulation anomalies associated with the SAM more important for interannual temperature variability across the Peninsula during autumn. Consistent with previous studies, western Peninsula temperatures during autumn, winter, and spring are closely tied to changes in the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and associated meridional wind anomalies. The interannual variability of ASL depth is most strongly correlated with the SAM index during autumn, while the ENSO relationship is strongest during winter and spring. Investigation of western and northeast Peninsula temperatures separately reveals that interannual variability of northeast Peninsula temperatures is primarily sensitive to zonal wind anomalies crossing the Peninsula and resultant leeside adiabatic warming rather than to meridional wind anomalies, which is closely tied to variability in the zonal portion of the SAM pattern.


Welhouse, L.J. et al, 2016. Composite analysis of the effects of ENSO events on Antarctica. Journal of Climate, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0108.1

Previous investigations of the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic climate have focused on regions that are impacted by both El Niño and La Niña, which favors analysis over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (ABS). Here, 35 yr (1979–2013) of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data are analyzed to investigate the relationship between ENSO and Antarctica for each season using a compositing method that includes nine El Niño and nine La Niña periods. Composites of 2-m temperature (T2m), sea level pressure (SLP), 500-hPa geopotential height, sea surface temperatures (SST), and 300-hPa geopotential height anomalies were calculated separately for El Niño minus neutral and La Niña minus neutral conditions, to provide an analysis of features associated with each phase of ENSO. These anomaly patterns can differ in important ways from El Niño minus La Niña composites, which may be expected from the geographical shift in tropical deep convection and associated pattern of planetary wave propagation into the Southern Hemisphere. The primary new result is the robust signal, during La Niña, of cooling over East Antarctica. This cooling is found from December to August. The link between the southern annular mode (SAM) and this cooling is explored. Both El Niño and La Niña experience the weakest signal during austral autumn. The peak signal for La Niña occurs during austral summer, while El Niño is found to peak during austral spring.


And finally perhaps you should actually read what I said:

From what I've read the latest change in sea ice extent has something to do with the recent El Nino...i.e. higher surface SST in southern ocean


I wasn't saying I knew the answer but you seem to understand this as I am claiming some knowledge about the connection.
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 08 May 2017, 08:25:55

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/05/04/ ... ern-ocean/

New Crack Found in Delaware-Sized Chunk of Larsen C Ice Shelf as it Heads Toward Southern Ocean
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 May 2017, 08:31:13

Wow! that crack off could lead to 4 inches of sea level rise worldwide. That's enough to mess with wharves, low lying sections of cities, etc. Great... And it's almost impossible to talk to people about this. They just don't get it. 4 inches sounds like not a lot, but it could really accelerate sea level rise in Maine, which is already going very quickly.
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 08 May 2017, 09:52:10

Revi wrote:Wow! that crack off could lead to 4 inches of sea level rise worldwide. That's enough to mess with wharves, low lying sections of cities, etc. Great... And it's almost impossible to talk to people about this. They just don't get it. 4 inches sounds like not a lot, but it could really accelerate sea level rise in Maine, which is already going very quickly.


Back youself up, that ice is already floating, melting it does not directly raise sea level a thousanth of a millimeter.

If the whole shelf goes and the glaciers behind thin out from easier access to the ocean that will take land ice and melt it. But that is not going to happen from this calvng event.
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 11 May 2017, 12:41:39

Irreversible ocean warming threatens the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf

Image

By the second half of this century, rising air temperatures above the Weddell Sea could set off a self-amplifying meltwater feedback cycle under the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, ultimately causing the second-largest ice shelf in the Antarctic to shrink dramatically. Climate researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) recently made this prediction in a new study, which can be found in the latest issue of the Journal of Climate, released today. In the study, the researchers use an ice-ocean model created in Bremerhaven to decode the oceanographic and physical processes that could lead to an irreversible inflow of warm water under the ice shelf - a development that has already been observed in the Amundsen Sea.
The results clearly show that even limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius won't be enough to save the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf," says co-author and AWI researcher Dr Frank Kauker.

New simulations from climate researchers at the AWI now indicate that this cold-water barrier could be permanently lost in the course of the next few decades. The reason: rising air temperatures over the Weddell Sea, which could cause less sea ice to form. "We can already see the first signs of this trend today. First of all, less sea ice is forming in the region, and secondly, oceanographic recordings from the continental shelf break confirm that the warm water masses are already moving closer and closer to the ice shelf in pulses," says Dr Hartmut Hellmer, an oceanographer at the AWI and first author of the study.

The researchers expect the effects to become noticeable by 2070. "Our simulations show that there will be no turning back once the warm water masses find their way under the ice shelf, since their heat will accelerate the melting at its base. In turn, the resulting meltwater will produce an intensified overturning, which will suck even more warm water from the Weddell Gyre under the ice. As such, according to our calculations, the hope that the ocean would someday run out of heat won't pan out in the long run," Hellmer explains.

Image
Comparison of sea- ice formation and the currents below the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf today and in the future. Credit: Alfred-Wegener-Institut/Martin Künsting CC-BY 4.0

As a result of the dramatic melting on its underside, the shelf's grounding line will shift further south and the ice will gradually lose direct contact with the seafloor. To date, frictional contact with the seafloor has helped to slow down the ice flow. Once this natural brake is gone, the draining of ice from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will quicken. "The meltwater feedback cycle under the ice shelf will only slow down once the shelf has collapsed, or no more glacial ice flows in from inland to take its place. So we're talking about processes that will continue over several centuries," says co-author and AWI model designer Dr Ralph Timmermann.

Hartmut H. Hellmer et al, The Fate of the Southern Weddell Sea Continental Shelf in a Warming Climate, Journal of Climate (2017).
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 11 May 2017, 13:10:25

vox_mundi wrote:The results clearly show that even limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius won't be enough to save the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf," .


Yup.

And there is no way the Paris Accords will stop global T from rising more than 2°C anyway. The Paris Accords are a sham.

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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 14 May 2017, 09:44:19

”We just don’t know what the upper boundary is for how fast this can happen,” Alley says, sounding a bit spooked.


“Think of it as a giant soup bowl filled with ice,” says Sridhar Anandakrishnan, an expert in polar glaciology at Penn State University.


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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby Revi » Tue 16 May 2017, 07:09:52

That's an excellent article. It really takes it's time telling us me the punchline. A 6000 foot cliff of ice that has to crumble down to 300 feet. That could take a while...
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 16 May 2017, 10:40:23

Revi wrote:That's an excellent article. It really takes it's time telling us me the punchline. A 6000 foot cliff of ice that has to crumble down to 300 feet. That could take a while...


Actually it happens very quickly. Look at the response of any physical material when stressed beyond its ability to maintain its shape, either through compression or stretching. The material warps slightly as the pressure grows in either direction, but at the breaking point it shatters, almost explosively.

The reason ice cliffs on land or above the water line at sea can only be 300 feet is the material, in this case ice, can not support its own weight in compression at greater heights. If the water intrudes inland under the glacier front at first it won't seem to change anything because the water layer between the ice and land below will be compressed enough that the ice will react as if it is still land ice. This will happen because the weight of the ice will prevent the glacier from flexing upward as floating ice does from waves and tides. As the water intrusion continues to erode away the ice front however after not too long their will be a water pocket high enough and in far enough to create a 'cave' 300 feet or more deep, at which point the ice passes its breaking point and the front will shear off as a large vertical slab.

Dr. Richard Alley believes the next event after that will be the formation of so many icebergs from the sheered off cliff that it will effectively block the channel out to sea. If that happens as he describes that massive quantity of icebergs blocking the water flow will have to be melted away by that same water intrusion until only a few are left and they can float out to open sea. Once most of the icebergs are out to sea or melted in place the warm water will once again start eroding a cave back into the ice cliff and once it is deep enough to pass the 300 foot or so strength limit another cliff shear will occur and again block the channel. This process will repeat many times until the cliff front is far enough back from the exit channel that the shear ice bergs will be able to float away instead of having to melt in place. Once that distance is achieved the cave formation and shearing events will start taking place at a much faster rate, however fast the ice can float down the channel to open sea creating a path for the warm subsurface water to get too the calving front. That period between the first shear event and the near constant events might be a decade or it might be a century, it is very hard to predict how long it will take.
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 May 2017, 11:07:23

The reason ice cliffs on land or above the water line at sea can only be 300 feet is the material, in this case ice, can not support its own weight in compression at greater heights. If the water intrudes inland under the glacier front at first it won't seem to change anything because the water layer between the ice and land below will be compressed enough that the ice will react as if it is still land ice. This will happen because the weight of the ice will prevent the glacier from flexing upward as floating ice does from waves and tides. As the water intrusion continues to erode away the ice front however after not too long their will be a water pocket high enough and in far enough to create a 'cave' 300 feet or more deep, at which point the ice passes its breaking point and the front will shear off as a large vertical slab.


the failure of ice sheets at crevasses is by tension, not compression. Ice, like many substances is considerably strong under triaxial compression but quite weak in tension. Every ice sheet in the world is comprised of areas with traverse crevasses which are caused as the glacier moves over underlying perturbations. The calving you describe is created by the tensional stresses that occur at the toes of all glaciers, in this case accentuated by waves and melting at the toe area. A thinned floating beam is weaker under tension than a thicker one. Compressive deformation does occur in ice sheets normally as a response to impingement along its edges during flow which can cause thrust like structures.

The Antarctic ice sheet moves between full plastic behavior through to brittle behavior as a consequence of strain rate (i.e. motion). At low strain rates (normal motion) the ice deforms internally whereas at higher strain rates it can fail.

Schulson, E. and Duval, P. 2009. Brittle failure of ice under tension. In: Creep and Fracture of Ice. Cambridge University Press. Pp. 212-235. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511581397.011

Ice fractures under tension in a number of engineering and geophysical situations. Examples include ice breaking by ships (Michel, 1978), the bending of floating ice sheets against offshore structures (Riska and Tuhkuri, 1995), the formation of thermal cracks (Evans and Untersteiner, 1971) and the building of pressure ridges (Hopkins et al., 1999) within the sea ice cover on the Arctic Ocean. Other examples include the fracture of pancake ice within the southern Atlantic Ocean (Dai et al., 2004), the calving of icebergs (Nye, 1957; Nath and Vaughan, 2003) and the crevassing of ice shelves (Rist et al., 1999, 2002; Weiss, 2004).
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 16 May 2017, 21:27:43

Good explanation, T.

I just noticed that Al Jazeera has a story on the Antarctic out now:

http://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/20 ... index.html
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 18 May 2017, 10:19:36

And now NYT has started a series on Antarctica as well...I think that's what's called 'trending'!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... -news&_r=0
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Re: Antarctica 2017

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 18 May 2017, 16:23:47

And now there's a story in the Guardian, for the trifecta!

https://www.theguardian.com/science/201 ... eseatchers

Climate change is turning Antarctica green, say researchers

In the past 50 years the quantity and rate of plant growth has shot up, says study, suggesting further warming could lead to rapid ecosystem changes
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