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Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 22:54:15

Pops wrote:
kublikhan wrote:Total GDP growth over a decade or two might be described as static. But there could still be significant fluctuations with individual players in the economy.

I think this is what throws a lot of folks. Capitalism is all about competition, and even more the outright destruction of capital. Rather than an ever growing "More," Marx wrote that capital must periodically be destroyed before business can return to profitability, I'm sure that was a critique of capitalism but it is nonetheless true that there are business cycles with periodic over investment where productive capacity needs to be reduced before anyone can make a profit. There is no rule that says that the return to productivity will cause growth. In fact in a static or shrinking economy (lacking fossil fueled surpluses) it likely won't.

Here from a short paper at http://akliman.squarespace.com/crisis-intervention/
This is because the destruction of capital restores profitability; without enough destruction of it, profitability will remain too low. Yet policymakers, unwilling to allow capital to be destroyed to a sufficient degree, have repeatedly chosen to “manage” the relative stagnation by encouraging excessive expansion of debt. This artificially boosts profitability and economic growth, but in an unsustainable manner, and it leads to repeated debt crises. The present crisis is the most serious and acute of these. Policymakers are responding to the crisis by once again papering over bad debts with more debt, this time to an unprecedented degree.


We also tend to think that creative destruction means the newer, faster, more autonomous, processor-controled item, or lately the killer app. My thought is that situation may reverse and the newest, latest may be slower, manual, human controlled instead and paving the way for a different kind of creativity.


Capitalism doesn't require "more" only if it involves solely money. Thus, capital is destroyed and profitability can take place again. With that, "more" isn't needed, as capital and profitability essentially involves numbers in hard drives.

However, for most people, capitalism is essentially based on availability of energy and material resources, especially for many who earn the equivalent of only a few dollars a day. Although they are affected by fallout from financial speculation, they still need money to buy and sell necessities, and what is usually seen as insignificant by the upper 15 pct of the world's population they consider very important.

This explains why even though global GDP growth rate has been static, global GDP continues to grow, why money supply rises steadily, and why energy and material resource consumption rise as well. Put simply, there are growing numbers of people, and there are also growing numbers of people who work to have more of their basic needs met. There is no way to meet those needs solely through financing.

That's why "more" is needed.

In addition, what we imagine should take place (such as manual labor) has actually been taking place in some ways for many people worldwide, and that's because most people are poor. The irony is that many of them dream of moving to service industries (or even working in rich countries), including finance, as these provide much better levels of income. On top of that, several of their basic needs, such as access to health care, etc., are based on much more extensive infrastructure which is funded by the same financial industries that are currently experiencing difficulties.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 22:59:48

pstarr wrote:Pops, I can almost agree with you that only adding value and profit counts. Who wants to get rich anyway? :lol: With that mindset then growth is not necessary, just profit for personal/family survival and equipment depreciation. However that assumption comes with one very important crucial caveat (which you seem willing to ignore): that is our fiat-fractional reserve system money creation is dependent on bank loans ie GROWTH. You want to go back to the Gold? :razz:

But who really cares? That debate is over. Now growth is impossible, regardless of its possible necessity because . . . de-growth is here


Profit is growth. If revenues are just enough to pay for all expenses, then no profit is made.

This is the actually the case for most people worldwide, who earn only a few dollars a day. They also face higher infant mortality rates, lower life expectancy rates, and greater risks from disease, natural disasters, crime, and many other problems. Likely, most would like to be rich, or at least earn more to meet more basic needs.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 23:12:35

Pops wrote:
Pete thought he had Pops on the ropes so he wrote:that is our fiat-fractional reserve system money creation is dependent on bank loans ie GROWTH.


My assertion is growth only happens in the rare case where population and surplus energy meet. Let me try another experiment.

Lets say I borrow $100 to start a flint knapping business at $10 interest
The bank creates $100 out of thin air, Mr GrenEyeShade adds it to their asset column and debits me some paper

I buy 100 bucks worth of flint with the paper and go to knapping and sell out for $120 creating enough value to pay back the loan and $10 interest and still have $10 profit

The bank adds it to the debit column and subtracts the loan from the asset column - poof, the hundred bucks is gone - didn't exist before, doesn't exist again.

Where did my profit come from?
From the value of my labor (resource+labor).

And what happened to the flint/arrowheads?
The flint/arrowheads are consumed: lost, broken, dulled, discarded

And what happened to my profit?
Consumed or used for the next flint boulder

But where did the $20 come from - HaHA!
It's just paper, just an abstract representation of value, it was there all along, Pops just didn't have none.
No new $20 bill was created to give me, the arrowhead buyer received it for some value he created and passed it along to me. I just passed along half to the banker and half to the bartender. The banker passed off his $10 to pay for his Cadillac and the bartender did the same... The $20 was there all along by common consent, it is just a facility to represent value as a convenience. We don't all want what the other has to trade and certainly not at the same time and definitely not in appropriate amounts so we use a representation of value.

But why doesn't the economy grow? It might in the short term, while everything - $20 bill, the loan, the flint, the arrowheads, the cadillac, still has value but in the long run it is all consumed. Obviously the money, just an abstract symbol of value that was creates off screen - stage left, passes through all our hands and exits stage right. It was just a symbol of convenience, an abstraction. And further, it is self regulating in value. One only has to look at the current value of the dollar, which, if you are to believe a gold bug, is as debased as a Weimar Mark, to realize that try as they might, the Fed just can't control it.

Obviously that leaves out the whole bit about productive assets, return on capital, etc, but you get that.

--
I'm reading a book about the collapse of fiat money called, imaginatively enough, "paper money collapse." It is all about how great gold is and how terrible paper is. Obviously it is not meant to be objective, to say the least. The book is not in any fashion about Limits, end of capitalism, etc, it is straight ahead conservative (nominally "liberal") economics. And of course like has been happening since '71, it predicts the collapse of debt, fiat money and whatnot just because it ain't conservative.


But one point the author makes fairly well is that the value of money is self regulating. He emphasizes it emphatically because it is his main argument agains soft money. Essentially he says if there is a high demand for money, its value rises (and asset values fall - deflation) and of course if there is too much money in circulation for the demand the value of money falls (of course asset values rise - inflation) and that explains away the whole Keynesian argument that governments should hold the levers on the money supply and decrease the value of money (increase the supply) to ease recessions.

--

So, what happens if everything unwinds this afternoon and all those bank entries turn to pumpkins?

It's all imaginary, it all just goes poof.
Unless the government tries to make everyone whole the columns just cancel out and those with clear title to physical assets (including gold, btw) have something and those with clear title to entries in a column have, well, nothing.


The economy that you mentioned actually grew. From nothing, it now had arrows, Cadillacs, flint, paper, and more. Repeat the process with higher loans (banks earn money through loans and can earn more money by offering more loans; businesses can make more flints, etc.), and the economy continues to grow.

Also, the only way for you to claim that this system doesn't require growth is to show that businesses don't want to sell more, banks don't want to sell more, workers don't want to earn more, and so on.

Finally, titles to several assets, including land, are possible only because of the existence of governments.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 23:15:11

Pops wrote:
The bank can immediately lend out another $107.80 ($110-$2.20, the the required fractional-reserve requirement) in new loans.


Ah Pete, I didn't expect that from you.

The fractional reserve requirement is a portion of liabilities, not assets.
Reserve requirements are the amount of funds that a depository institution must hold in reserve against specified deposit liabilities.


They are required to hold a portion of demand deposits, in other words, so obviously the amount of loans are limited by deposits, not loans. Currently 14.5% if I'm reading this right:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetaryp ... rvereq.htm


The point of a bank, aside from having a big safe, is to match savers with borrowers, charge interest to borrowers, keep some for itself and pay the rest to the saver. A Ponzi would not make enough from borrowers to pay savers and would dip into principle. From my experience, borrowers pay a LOT more than savers receive so I can't figure out where the whole ponzi thing comes from anyway..

Again, since a bank actually makes money from all those loans, it has no need for new loans (to pay saver's interest) except of course a desire to receive the income to buy a newer Cadillac.


As far as safety if that is what your concern is, if a bank made just one loan, just one, from a demand depositor's funds (keeping all those funds on hand, in the safe, of course), that bank would not be able to redeem every deposit it held if it were asked to do so. You could say they can only loan out of time deposits, not sure how much it would reduce the reserves available. That is called a full reserve bank I just read and if that is the kind of bank you want, one that merely has a big safe and a security guard, I'm sure you can find one for a fee.

As far as future of capitalism and fractional reserve goes, like anything else there are risks, that is why you earn interest on your deposits. sometimes :|


Something to consider in relation to that:

the-myth-of-the-money-multiplier-t67257.html
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 00:39:11

Ralfy,

What do you think is the role of the business cycle in capitalism? Do you think it still has one? Is it a bad thing that it seems like we have been avoiding the old model for the cycle's periods for some time now?

I ask this in terms of your insistence that capitalism requires growth. I don't necessarily disagree or agree with you. What I want to know is your opinion on this because it might give me some insight into your thoughts. You know, insight that isn't biased by any of my own preconceived views. Just curious.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby Pops » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 12:41:06

I moved the fractional reserve bit over here:
fractional-reserve-banking-t70918.html
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 14:59:47

Pops wrote:We also tend to think that creative destruction means the newer, faster, more autonomous, processor-controled item, or lately the killer app. My thought is that situation may reverse and the newest, latest may be slower, manual, human controlled instead and paving the way for a different kind of creativity.
Something like this?
Latest Version
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby Pops » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 15:10:28

LOL, exactly!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 16:02:13

Do you really believe this Pops?

The point of a bank, aside from having a big safe, is to match savers with borrowers, charge interest to borrowers, keep some for itself and pay the rest to the saver. A Ponzi would not make enough from borrowers to pay savers and would dip into principle. From my experience, borrowers pay a LOT more than savers receive so I can't figure out where the whole ponzi thing comes from anyway..
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby Pops » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 17:40:32

Quinny wrote:Do you really believe this Pops?

The point of a bank, aside from having a big safe, is to match savers with borrowers, charge interest to borrowers, keep some for itself and pay the rest to the saver. A Ponzi would not make enough from borrowers to pay savers and would dip into principle. From my experience, borrowers pay a LOT more than savers receive so I can't figure out where the whole ponzi thing comes from anyway..

Which part?
Bankers essentially broker loans of deposits?
make money from loans?
Bankers don't pay interest out of deposits?
Loans get higher interest than savings?
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 21:49:09

evilgenius wrote:Ralfy,

What do you think is the role of the business cycle in capitalism? Do you think it still has one? Is it a bad thing that it seems like we have been avoiding the old model for the cycle's periods for some time now?

I ask this in terms of your insistence that capitalism requires growth. I don't necessarily disagree or agree with you. What I want to know is your opinion on this because it might give me some insight into your thoughts. You know, insight that isn't biased by any of my own preconceived views. Just curious.


A business cycle doesn't counter the argument that capitalism requires growth because throughout decades when business cycles occurred for the global economy, there was also a "long-term growth trend":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle

That's why money supply, energy and material resource use kept rising worldwide.

Why did these go up? Because most businesses worldwide are for-profit, and the profit was churned back into the system to produce more goods and services. And these involved more money, energy, and material resources.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 21:54:50

kublikhan wrote:
Pops wrote:We also tend to think that creative destruction means the newer, faster, more autonomous, processor-controled item, or lately the killer app. My thought is that situation may reverse and the newest, latest may be slower, manual, human controlled instead and paving the way for a different kind of creativity.
Something like this?
Latest Version


Interestingly enough, the example shows how growth is required. That is, new products are introduced thanks to planned obsolescence and other means, so that not only will consumers keep buying, they might even buy more than what they actually want. More energy and material resources will be needed to make more products each time, and in various cases more will be needed to make each product which contains new features, etc.

This also explains why energy and material use per capita in richer countries, together with money owned and owed, is higher than the global average, and why the rest of the world population wants to catch up.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 21:57:54

pstarr wrote:I do not know what is wrong with this:

Quinny wrote:Do you really believe this Pops?

The point of a bank, aside from having a big safe, is to match savers with borrowers, charge interest to borrowers, keep some for itself and pay the rest to the saver. A Ponzi would not make enough from borrowers to pay savers and would dip into principle. From my experience, borrowers pay a LOT more than savers receive so I can't figure out where the whole ponzi thing comes from anyway..

But I know this is wrong

Pops wrote:Again, since a bank actually makes money from all those loans, it has no need for new loans (to pay saver's interest) except of course a desire to receive the income to buy a newer Cadillac.

It always needs new loans because loans are paid off and the interest payments go away.


There's also competition among banks and among various financial institutions promising better returns on investment, etc.

All these led to increasing credit made available to fuel consumer spending and financial speculation, and results included pollution, the threat of a resource crunch, and financial crashes.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 22:02:49

Pops wrote:
Quinny wrote:Do you really believe this Pops?

The point of a bank, aside from having a big safe, is to match savers with borrowers, charge interest to borrowers, keep some for itself and pay the rest to the saver. A Ponzi would not make enough from borrowers to pay savers and would dip into principle. From my experience, borrowers pay a LOT more than savers receive so I can't figure out where the whole ponzi thing comes from anyway..

Which part?
Bankers essentially broker loans of deposits?
make money from loans?
Bankers don't pay interest out of deposits?
Loans get higher interest than savings?


Banks can lend much more than what is deposited, and very likely even go beyond reserve requirements. Not just profits from businesses but interest earned, the reserve requirement, and going beyond it increases money supply considerably. With competition, banks have to offer better returns on investment, together with all other institutions that want to borrow money for expansion, etc.

That's why it's not surprising that many of the corporations that dominate the global economy are financial:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2 ... world.html
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby radon1 » Wed 28 Jan 2015, 00:33:04

Business cycles are not of much help once the limits of the system (of the division of labor) are reached in terms of the number of people involved. Overall, consumer income sets on a deflationary path, with a permanent depression ensuing. Empirical evidence - depressions of the 20th century, which were not resolved until the world wars provided for expansion of the relevant systems.
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Re: Another "Future of Capitalism" argument

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 28 Jan 2015, 02:56:46

The myth about matching savers with borrowers?

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicat ... eation.pdf


Pops wrote:
Quinny wrote:Do you really believe this Pops?

The point of a bank, aside from having a big safe, is to match savers with borrowers, charge interest to borrowers, keep some for itself and pay the rest to the saver. A Ponzi would not make enough from borrowers to pay savers and would dip into principle. From my experience, borrowers pay a LOT more than savers receive so I can't figure out where the whole ponzi thing comes from anyway..

Which part?
Bankers essentially broker loans of deposits?
make money from loans?
Bankers don't pay interest out of deposits?
Loans get higher interest than savings?
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