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All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 16 Feb 2012, 18:28:37

Euro price of Brent appears to be at an all time high
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/? ... rrency=eur
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 16 Feb 2012, 19:24:13

Anyone got a chart of Tapis in Singapore Dollars? I think the same is true there as with Brent/ Euro.
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Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Thu 16 Feb 2012, 19:44:08

>I knew meemoe_uk the tool was going to throw out the inflation argument......... lsol
I knew vision_master the tool was going to throw the US PPP to examplify oil prices.

The US and its PPP is not representative of the world economy. It is a special case, where its industry ( which 40 years ago was world #1 ) has been stripped out and sent abroad. Now there are broken communities all over the US.

How come you didn't throw out a developing nations PPP 40 year chart hmm?
How come you didn't show world PPP ?

2ndly, you just made a complete tool of yourself infront of anyone who can understand a graph. On this forum that's me, oilfinder and rockdoc and a couple of others maybe. No one else will have clue what I'm going to say.
2 fails.
- a) its not a oil price graph. You have to combine oil cost with PPP. But you haven't.
- b) its a growth graph, therefore _IF_ we're taking straight PPP to represent the cost of oil, then its not saying US PPP & oil availability is now worse than in 1970s, its saying its 2855 + 3888 - 324 = $6419 better than the 1970s.
You understand? I'd be surprised.

All in all, its exactly what I'd expect from a PO_is_now type. You just gotta block out or burn the past.
. In the 70s oil crisis, people couldn't buy gasoline, not because the price was too high, but because there was no gasoline at the pump. A consumer had to barter and haggle with those that had it.

How can the most fanatical delusional peeker possibly think we've got it worse now then back in the 70s oil crisis? They can't. So they just have to erase the past. In doomer land the 70s didn't exist. Its no accident that vm and chums ignored that part of my post that described the 1970s.
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Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 16 Feb 2012, 23:48:32

meemoe_uk wrote:Using inflation adjusted figures is better than non adjusted. But it still falls way short of charting the true cost of oil. In the 70s oil crisis, people couldn't buy gasoline, not because the price was too high, but because there was no gasoline at the pump. A consumer had to barter and haggle with those that had it. So which is more expensive?
Also, the Purchasing Power Parity, a standard of assessing the true cost of a commodity, simply hasn't entered the lexicon on this forum.

In 1997, oil was $12 a barrel
In 2011, WTI Crude Oil is $86, and Brent Crude about $103. About a 9-fold increase in 14 years.
but
In 1970, oil was $1 a barrel
In 1979, oil was $37 a barrel. About a 37-fold increase in 9 years.

The 70s oil shock was measurably 6.4 times harder than today's so called oil crisis. Together with the fact that the peak oil is now hypers ignore PPP, and that me and everyone I know doesn't find gasoline prices to be crippling, strikes me that the true cost of oil today is much cheaper than before.
That's not what Pops chart shows. It shows the inflation adjusted price of gasoline in 1970 to be around $2.00 a gallon. Prices peaked in 1981 at around $3.31 a gallon. About a 1.7 fold increase. Then more recently gas prices bottomed out at around $1.50 a gallon. Then increased to $3.51 a gallon. A 2.3 fold increase. That means the oil shock is measurably harder today than it was in the 1970s.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 05:16:42

Well done kub.Your starting statement is right. But your conclusion is wrong.
Are you going to venture where else I could have gotten my figures from?
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Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby Cloud9 » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 08:16:02

In Sebring Florida in 1967 when I was a bag boy at Publix gas was 25 cents a gallon. Minimum wage was $1.00. By my crude metric a minimum wage earner could buy four gallons of gas with one hour’s worth of labor. How does that stack up to the current situation? Once you sort that out you might be able to visualize the trend.
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Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 09:44:31

Cloud9 wrote:In Sebring Florida in 1967 when I was a bag boy at Publix gas was 25 cents a gallon. Minimum wage was $1.00. By my crude metric a minimum wage earner could buy four gallons of gas with one hour’s worth of labor. How does that stack up to the current situation? Once you sort that out you might be able to visualize the trend.

By that logic with petrol at USD 3.50 ish four gallons would be USD 14.00 what is the minimum wage?
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby The Practician » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 13:42:42

dolanbaker wrote:
Cloud9 wrote:In Sebring Florida in 1967 when I was a bag boy at Publix gas was 25 cents a gallon. Minimum wage was $1.00. By my crude metric a minimum wage earner could buy four gallons of gas with one hour’s worth of labor. How does that stack up to the current situation? Once you sort that out you might be able to visualize the trend.

By that logic with petrol at USD 3.50 ish four gallons would be USD 14.00 what is the minimum wage?


$7.25 is is the federal minimum wage, a lot of states have higher. I would say the average is closer to $8.00. Enough for just over 2 gallons. To be fair, cars are more fuel efficient these days. Then again, they cost more to own and operate, adjusted for inflation and cost of living.
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Re: All Time Record Yearly Global Oil Price

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 17 Feb 2012, 15:03:27

meemoe_uk wrote:Well done kub.Your starting statement is right. But your conclusion is wrong.
Are you going to venture where else I could have gotten my figures from?
My guess would be you were trying to use non inflation adjusted values for a barrel of oil. This is a faulty comparison method for several reasons. First off, you ignored the effects of inflation in your comparison. This is economics 101 stuff so I assume I don't have to expand further on why that is bad? Secondly, even if ignoring the first point your numbers are still off. I could not find any source that supports crude oil was 1 dollar in 1970, even using nominal numbers. Third, you were talking about how much it hurt people to buy gasoline. Therefore you should be talking about gasoline prices not oil.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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