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Africa & Energy (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Africa & Energy (merged)

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Sat 24 Jun 2006, 19:25:52

MIAMI, United States (UPI) -- Oil production in Central African countries is expected to drop by 15 percent in the next three years, the Bank of Central African States said in a recent report. Production levels in five of the six nations in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, or CEMAC, will drop from 59.3 million tons this year to 50.6 million tons in 2009, the bank said, adding that the decline was due to an 'absence of any new discoveries.'

Five CEMAC nations -- Cameroon, Chad, Congo Republic, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon -- are oil exporters. Only the Central African Republic does not produce oil. Equatorial Guinea, the lead producer in CEMAC, is expected to experience a production decline from 18.6 million tons this year to 16.2 million tons in 2009.

Gabon, whose economy would be hardest hit by the decline, according to experts, could experience a 27 percent reduction in production in the next three years, falling to just under 10 million tons in 2009.

Chad is the only country expected to increase production in the coming years, said the bank report, with levels increasing to 8.6 million tons in 2007. Levels then are forecasted to level off at 7.7 million tons by 2009.

The central bank`s and International Monetary Fund`s economic forecast for the region predicts that CEMAC oil producers will also experience a strain on central bank and state coffers amid the production decline, despite a constant near-record global price per barrel.

As a result, growth for CEMAC nations is expected to average some 2.5 percent per year until 2010. Such minimal gains would signal a need to slash state budgets and would hamper poverty reduction efforts in those countries in the coming years. A minimum of 7 percent gross domestic product per year is needed in that region for efficacy of poverty programs there.

While each of the five producers will handle its own production declines separately, all the CEMAC nations, including the Central African Republic, will feel the sting of less oil output. The nations share a common currency and rely on the revenue in their central bank located in Cameroon, Anna-Marie Gulde-Wolf, an IMF economic adviser specializing in Africa, told United Press International.

'A big part of what is going to happen is linked to fiscal policy [in CEMAC],' she said. 'Our recommendation is to have a fairly rapid adjustment ... by cutting the budget [in CEMAC nations] in the next three or four years.'

Belt-tightening will likely come at the expense of some social spending in the coming years, she noted, though the impact will unlikely be disastrous.

'I don`t think there will be any crisis ... this is something that can be adjusted [to],' she said.

Cameroon will mostly likely weather the decline better than other CEMAC producers, said Gulde-Wolf, as the country has the most diversified economy of any of the other countries in the region. In addition to oil, Cameroon exports cocoa, coffee, other mineral resources and boasts an emerging manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

Gabon, on the other hand, would be hit the hardest by the decline. The nation doesn`t have an economic sector as diversified as Cameroon, though may draw on a line of IMF credit during lean production years.

The decline in CEMAC production levels, meanwhile, should not bode poorly for prices at U.S. pumps, said John Kilduff, senior vice president of the energy risk management group at Fimat USA Inc.

'It`s sort of a mixed bag ...obviously we [the United States] are in position where we need more crude oil, but when we look to the future those nations aren`t on our concern list,' Kilduff told UPI.

He noted that the United States doesn`t buy much of its oil from CEMAC nations. For example, Chad produces an estimated 84,000 bpd destined for U.S. shores.

He also speculated that increased production in Nigeria and Libya in the coming months and years would offset any CEMAC oil declines.

'Still,' he cautioned, 'any time we see these declining production levels, it`s disturbing.'


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Re: Analysis: Central Africa oil production down

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 17:07:56

This calls for a graph:

Image

(historical data per the BP Review)

With the exception of 2003 this appears to have been a steadily growing region.

I will have to adjust the forecast.
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Re: Analysis: Central Africa oil production down

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 16:38:09

Folks, we really need to get it through our thick skulls that this is it. Peak Oil is here. We're on the undulating plateau, and that's that.

We may briefly spike up to 85 million BPD in the next year or so, but if we ever see 86 it'll be a miracle. The only question now is how long we'll be able to stay on the current 84 million plateau.

Downslope, here we come, and soon.
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Re: Analysis: Central Africa oil production down

Unread postby Geko45 » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 17:53:27

pup55 wrote:With the exception of 2003 this appears to have been a steadily growing region.

To me it looks as if they reached plateau in about 1999 and instead of accepting it they either took some drastic measures to increase production OR they flat out fudged the numbers. Either way, they are now facing the consequences.
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Re: Analysis: Central Africa oil production down

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 27 Jun 2006, 21:05:37

Thousand barrels daily 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cameroon 88 81 75 68 62 58
Chad - - - 24 168 173
Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville) 275 271 258 243 240 253
Equatorial Guinea 117 173 210 234 329 355
Gabon 327 301 295 240 235 234
Total 807 825 838 809 1034 1074


Here's what happened: most of these crazy countries were in pretty steep decline and then Chad came along and went from 24 to 173 tbd in two years.
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Americans get more oil from Africa than from Saudi Arabia

Unread postby Bleep » Mon 14 Aug 2006, 12:39:03

Oil-addicted America finds a temporary fix in Africa (link)
By Paul Salopek
Chicago Tribune
Monday, August 14, 2006

...skip...

Americans already get more oil from Africa than from Saudi Arabia. By 2015, oil experts say, African states will supply one-quarter of U.S. imports, up from 15 percent today. The United States quietly signaled this shift in 2002, when the State Department declared African oil a "strategic national interest," meaning in diplomatic code that U.S. troops may intervene to protect it.

"I think the U.S. military would find our swamps worse than Iraq," snorted Austin Onuoha, a Nigerian human-rights activist who specializes in oil issues. "But at least they might build some infrastructure after they invade. Americans always do this, right?"

Onuoha's sarcasm was well-earned. He was talking from his blacked-out house in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The electricity in Africa's petro-giant had winked out again. And this fit sourly into his main thesis: Oil is rotting Africa's frail democracies.


This is an excellent article summarizing recent events:
The Niger Delta Insurgency and its Threat to Energy Security (link)
By Erich Marquardt
Volume 4, Issue 16 (August 10, 2006)

During the first half of 2006, Nigeria's energy industry was crippled by guerrilla attacks from militants demanding a larger share of the country's oil revenue. The guerrillas, primarily from Nigeria's Ijaw ethnic community, live in the country's Niger Delta region where the majority of its energy resources are extracted. The ethnic roots of the crisis and the terrain of the delta make government attempts to end the insurgency difficult since a military response could lead to the complete shutdown of the country's oil exports. Given the significance of energy exports to the Nigerian economy, the roots of the current crisis and the reasons behind the government's failure to stabilize the delta, it becomes clear that attacks on energy facilities in the delta will continue to be an irritant to Africa's largest oil producer.
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What about the excitement over Africa?

Unread postby skjhlkj » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 05:13:35

I don't know very much about the globe supply of crude oil, but I have read news from Time magazine about oil in Africa. It seems that Africa is the new frontier, and everybody is looking at it

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... 51,00.html

Anybody know the real news behind Africa oil? How much do they really have? Could the "newly discovered" Africa oil delay the "peak oil" a few more years? Also, if Africa really do have more crude waiting to be pumped, are they heavy or light?
thanks. 8)
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What about the excitement over Africa?

Unread postby skjhlkj » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 05:15:22

I don't know very much about the globe supply of crude oil, but I have read news from Time magazine about oil in Africa. It seems that Africa is the new frontier, and everybody is looking at it

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... 51,00.html

Anybody know the real news behind Africa oil? How much do they really have? Could the "newly discovered" Africa oil delay the "peak oil" a few more years? Also, if Africa really do have more crude waiting to be pumped, are they heavy or light?
thanks. 8)
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Re: What about the excitement over Africa?

Unread postby halcyon » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 07:09:38

In short: Yes, there is plenty of oil in Africa and yes, US will take it (by force if necessary), but be forced to share it with Chinese who are also very active in Africa. However, it probably will not affect the peak issue in any great significance.

The longer answer:

Image

Africa is on spot 3 in production after Middle East (biggest aggregate area) and FSU+Eastern non-OECD Europe+Caspian.

If you do a search here, you will find a lot of stuff on Africa.

You could also read the new books about the dirty oil politics in Africa:

http://www.amazon.com/Poisoned-Wells-Di ... 23060532X/
http://www.amazon.com/Untapped-Scramble ... 151011389/

Or some short teasers from each:

http://www.slate.com/id/2163389/entry/2163396/
http://www.boston.com/ae/books/articles ... ca?mode=PF
http://johnfenzel.typepad.com/john_fenz ... _from.html

Or you can read a book about resource curse (aka the Dutch disease) and why Africa is still suffering, even though it has black gold and many other natural treasures:

http://www.amazon.com/Escaping-Resource ... 231141963/

HINT: it's because we steal it and let the people who produce it for us to rot under dictators helped into power by us.

Africa is suffering and will suffer even more, if IOCs continue to plunder there with the help of current corrupt officials, military juntas and dictators.

Every time you or we fill our tanks with gasoline made from African oil, we are indirectly supporting genocide, robbery, bribery and civil war in several African nations which are suffering due to dirty oil politics.

So, there is a dilemma. We can fill our need with some African stuff. To some extent. For a while.

However, it is based on something not too far removed from modern slavery. It's so much more easier and faster to pull it off, because it happens there, in the backyard that the world forgot, using modern technology. The people who are mistreated and robbed of their resources can always be shot/hanged/burnt, before they get too pesky or start getting vocal about their rights (Ken Saro-Wiwa, anyone?).
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Re: What about the excitement over Africa?

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 09:07:44

It is a mixed situation. There are pre-peak nations in Africa, but they are not going to offset enough decline elsewhere. Shallow out the decline curve, but not prevent it.
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Europe looks to draw power from Africa

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 23:45:24

Europe looks to draw power from Africa

The power needs of Europe, the Middle Eastand North Africa could be met by an ambitious idea to network renewable energies across the region. The cornerstone of the plan, developed by a group of scientists, economists and businessmen,involves peppering the Sahara Desert with solar thermal power plants, then transmitting the electricity through massive grids.

Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan was scheduled to present this green-energy idea, dubbed DESERTEC, to members of the European Parliament in Brussels on 28 November.

The vision is ambitious: it would require roughly 1,000 100-megawatt power plants, using mirrors to concentrate energy from the Sun's rays, throughout the Middle East and North Africa to meet the region's projected energy needs. A high-efficiency electricity grid, yet to be built, would then ferry the power around and across the Mediterranean Sea and northern Europe.

Initial solar thermal plants are being planned in Algeria, Egypt and Morocco, with more under construction in Spain and Italy.

Bringing electricity from Africa to Europe presents another challenge. The DLR says that €45 billion of the overall budget should be invested by 2050 to place high-voltage d.c. transmission cables throughout the region. Such a line already exists between Norway and the Netherlands.

The DESERTEC group is asking parliamentarians to set up a €10-billion fund to finance the development of solar thermal plants over the next 7 years, and to establish a political framework for the idea.


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Re: Europe looks to draw power from Africa

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 01:04:50

A high-efficiency electricity grid, yet to be built, would then ferry the power around and across the Mediterranean Sea and northern Europe.


"yet to be built"

Ya gotta have a dream I suppose and they will share that power with Africa, Im sure as Africas population continues to explode there will be no temptation to turn off the power to Europe.

Alternatively the tinpot dictators might not be so popular and above ground factors such as in Nigeria might decide to throw rocks at the mirrors?
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Re: Europe looks to draw power from Africa

Unread postby sicophiliac » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 03:06:32

In my opinion Europe is right on the money with this proposal, although some political issues are bound to arise when dealing with north African governments the vast potential for solar thermal energy from the desert makes it well worth it. Besides they already deal with corrupt and unstable countries when it comes to the dwindling oil supplies they need. Economically the countries in Africa would certainly benefit from the use of their otherwise worthless scorched earth and also some of that power thats being generated could easily be used to desalinate seawater to provide drinking water for local populations. I mean realistically does anybody have any better ideas for Europe?
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Re: Europe looks to draw power from Africa

Unread postby lorenzo » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 02:41:31

TREC is a very old Club of Rome idea, that hasn't received that much support, because it is mired with problems.

From the EU's very recent Strategic Energy Technology Plan:
Image

It's hugely expensive, and has received a fresh blow now that electricity from Europe's first lqrge commercial solar thermal plant (in Seville) has shown to be three times more costly than projected.

Secondly, it would require a new generation of HVDC lines yet to be developed.

Third it still has some serious baseload problems. These could however be solved by linking up with bioenergy.

Fourth, it is feared the project could be a prime target for salafists, who already control the Sahara and part of the Sahel.

Fifth, it would have to utilize quite a lot of water, which would have to be desalinated, lowering the efficiency considerably.

Sixth, the carbon footprint and mitigation costs of the project are a bit high, certainly compared to carbon negative energy systems. So its not unthinkable to see a timing problem - by the time TREC would begin to take off, say in 2030, the norm will have become ultra-high carbon prices, in which case TREC will not be able to compete with negative emissions energy systems.

The idea to use the desert and transport solar energy to Europe is an old dream - sadly its not a very realistic one.

Solar ambassadors and princes have been trying to sell the project to the EU for many years now; so nothing new there. I hope they succeed with this new round of lobbying.
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Re: Europe looks to draw power from Africa

Unread postby Kingcoal » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 12:10:01

I think it's worth trying. Hell, if it works, then maybe we in the US can do the same with the Mojave Desert. Being an electrical engineer, I see electricity generation as a way to cope with PO. Consider that 70% of the worlds oil goes into transportation, most of that into automobiles and trucks. Having a surplus of very high EROEI electricity would allow us to keep civilization in place, however changed. In the short term, the EROEI is generally very negative for projects like this, but as time progresses, it moves well into positive territory.

The biggest problem with a project like this, which would not be as near a problem in the US, is terrorism. Such a plant, in such an unstable region, would be the target of constant sabotage.
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Aid to Africa reduced due to higher oil cost

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 04:11:17

According to FT

The situation is raising fears that, in spite of the strong growth many African countries have seen in recent years, there could be a repeat of the 1980s’ debt crisis in the developing world that was caused in part by the oil shocks of the 1970s.


Surveying 13 non-oil-producing African countries, including South Africa, Ghana, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Senegal, the IEA found that the increase in the cost of oil bought by the countries since 2004 was equivalent to 3 per cent of combined GDP.

This was more than the sum of debt relief and aid received over the past three years by the countries, which have a combined population of 270m, of whom 104m live on less than $1 a day.

The IEA’s warning comes as Senegal’s President Abdoulaye Wade said “crippling” oil prices threatened to provoke “unrest and violence” in Africa.


Africa’s economic growth has remained strong this year, but increased fuel costs have put upward pressure on inflation and slowed growth in some countries. They have also contributed to social problems including rising food prices, power cuts due to the use of diesel-powered generation in many areas – and an increasing burden of fuel subsidies.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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UN Report: bioenergy can lift West Africa out of poverty

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 09:31:24

Sound Bioenergy Policies Could Help Lift West African Rural Areas Out of Poverty

New report shows that bioenergy can power sustainable rural development

For Immediate Release
Rome (October 16, 2008) —

A new report released by the United Nations Foundation, the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development and the Energy and Security Group finds that bioenergy can provide significant economic and environmental opportunities for rural areas in West Africa. The report, “Sustainable Bioenergy Report in UEMOA Member Countries”, released today at a side event at FAO Headquarters in Rome, finds that donor and host country investments in bioenergy can reduce the exposure of West African countries to high food and oil prices and open up new economic opportunities in clean energy development.

Biomass can also expand agricultural production across the UEMOA (the Economic and Monetary Union of West Africa) nations of Benin, Burkina-Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo which have been hit hard by the food crisis and rising oil prices. Sound bioenergy production policies can help drive a coordinated approach to poverty reduction and reduce the impact of climate change on these already vulnerable areas.

“This report takes on the twin challenges of energy and agriculture and explores how bioenergy crops and modern uses of biomass in rural areas of West Africa could play a role in alleviating poverty while protecting food production,” said Melinda Kimble, Senior Vice President with the UN Foundation. “It is vital that policies and technologies are developed and implemented to better use agricultural and forest residues. If used correctly, these energy feedstocks hold great potential for efficient and affordable locally-produced fuels and this can be done in a sustainable and responsible way that ensures the world’s most vulnerable populations have access to clean fuels and are not put at further risk.”

Commissioned by UEMOA and the Rural Hub for Western and Central Africa, the report finds that these oil-import dependent countries possess enough arable land and forests to cultivate sufficient foodstocks and harvest biomass to produce expanded amounts of bioenergy. But less than two percent of these arable acres are irrigated, leaving them vulnerable to erratic weather patterns. The report concludes that greater investment in irrigation, as well as fertilizer and farm equipment are all needed if agricultural yields are to increase in line with a growing population.

Better yields are essential in order to improve standards of living in UEMOA countries, since roughly 70% of the population depends on agricultural or forestry-related jobs. Conversely, only seven percent of the rural population has access to electricity, greatly limiting economic growth, the report finds.

“Access to affordable energy is a critical factor in the development of rural communities, and one that is often forgotten,” said Dr. Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, Executive Director of the Rural Hub. “Bioenergy offers African farmers a unique opportunity to generate the energy that they need to grow food crops and improve agriculture productivity. With the right public policies in place and the blueprint for action included in the report, UEMOA countries can harness that potential and win the fight against both rural poverty and climate change.”

According to the report, key factors to guide sustainable bioenergy include improving agriculture and forest productivity, and protecting watersheds, which would also put governments in a better position to fight against climate change and cope with inevitable impacts. Traditional wood biomass production – 73% of primary energy used in the region – must be adapted to create more efficient and cleaner fuel. Bioenergy can be transformative for the region – greatly expanding electricity and energy access, creating more jobs and better income in rural communities and growth across national and regional economies. Innovative crop management, farmer training, and consistent investment are needed to improve agriculture productivity in this region. Land use, protection of small producers, infrastructure improvement, data collection, and women’s roles are some of the critical points which must be taken into account by governments in order to secure sustainability, the report found.

“Achieving the Millenium Development Goals demands well-integrated agricultural and energy policies if progress is to be sustained,” said Kandeh K. Yumkella, Director-General of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. “It is my hope that this report provides a new view of the potential of agriculture to help millions of Africans get out of the dark and out of poverty.”

The full report and executive summary can be found online at http://www.unfoundation.org/press-cente ... eport.html

For more information, or to arrange an interview, contact John Anthony at 202.277.2103. If you are in Rome, contact Marie-Vincente Pasdeloup at +33 6 20 46 00 14.

BACKGROUND

About the UN Foundation

The United Nations Foundation is an advocate for the UN and a platform for connecting people, ideas and capital to help the United Nations solve global problems. We build partnerships, grow constituencies, mobilize resources and advocate policy changes to support the UN’s work for individual and global progress. The UN Foundation’s work — focused on select global problems — is decreasing child mortality, improving disaster relief, protecting diverse cultures and environments, creating a clean energy future, empowering women and girls, and improving U.S.-UN relations. The UN Foundation is a public charity. For more information, visit www.unfoundation.org.

The Rural Hub for Western and Central Africa is a non-governmental organization whose goal is to assist West and Central African stakeholders (States, Inter-governmental Organisations, Civil Society Organisations and Development Partners) to promote coherence in rural development programmes worldwide. For more information, visit http://www.hubrural.org


Hear, hear, bioenergy can lift an entire region out of poverty, boost food security, get rid of oil problems and tackle climate change!! OMG!! 8O

The simpleton press against bioenergy ("robbing poor people's food") is once again debunked, by people who actually know what they're writing about.
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Re: UN Report: bioenergy can lift West Africa out of poverty

Unread postby lorenzo » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 19:42:43

No replies, I see. Telling enough. :-D
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Re: UN Report: bioenergy can lift West Africa out of poverty

Unread postby Munqi » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 07:20:16

Does this plan take into account peak phosphorus?


Is there a need for that?
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Re: UN Report: bioenergy can lift West Africa out of poverty

Unread postby Homesteader » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 07:46:02

lorenzo wrote:No replies, I see. Telling enough. :-D


That is because the report is the sos(same old sh*t) of coulds, ifs and maybes.

Show us the report that says has, done, and proven.
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