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Abrupt Climate Change

Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby Cog » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 09:30:53

Actually I'm baiting you to make any sort of prediction, certainty or not. Next year, ten years, 100 years, take your pick.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 09:34:06

Cog wrote:Actually I'm baiting you to make any sort of prediction, certainty or not. Next year, ten years, 100 years, take your pick.

In one hundred years we will have a noticeably different climate in most places on Earth. :shock:
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 09:40:11

dohboi wrote:More bs from vt. Why don't you give it a rest. Or read up a bit on what is known as 'scientific reticence.'

If anything, scientists are constantly understating how dire things are.

'scientific reticence.'

A scientist,s fear of being proven wrong on any point ,expressed by salting every paper or discussion with weasel clauses, provisos, and expressions of uncertainty, and requests for further study.
I'm fine with the scientists covering their behinds with such. What I object to is your layman's reading of and swallowing the paper's most extreme proposal without applying the level of uncertainty expressed in the weasel clauses.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby kiwichick » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 23:42:23

@ v....how many reports on climate change have you noted recently which say that the position is better than the scientists observing the changes thought it was going to be

in other words I'm struggling to think of very many instances of scientists saying ......".wow ..we have over estimated how bad this is .....we should all just concentrate on what Kim Kardashian is up to"
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 01:41:00

kiwichick wrote:@ v....how many reports on climate change have you noted recently which say that the position is better than the scientists observing the changes thought it was going to be
"

Of course not many because if the observed position was less dramatic then expected or "hoped for" the paper doesn't get written. You don't get funded for writing a paper that says " Oh never mind it's not that bad." :)
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 02:48:41

The guy's just proving he has no respect for any scientist or for what they say.

So no amount of scientific evidence is ever going to persuade him

Time to move on.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 07:53:46

dohboi wrote:The guy's just proving he has no respect for any scientist or for what they say.

So no amount of scientific evidence is ever going to persuade him

Time to move on.

Groups of people I respect just for being a member:
: 1. Navy seals
2. United States Marines
3. USA Third Infantry division.
4. Trident submariners.
5. The New Hampshire State Police.
All others are on an individual case by case basis and that includes scientists some of which are top notch and others which are complete frauds.
But seriously no scientist ( good or bad) ever writes up a paper with negative results with the exception of Grad students that got a loser of a thesis project.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 08:02:27

dohboi wrote:
Time to move on.


I have. Have you? Dohboi, what really keeps you or anyone here engaged on debates that just go in circles or on macro issues that remain unsolvable. What motivates you?
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 08:04:14

But seriously no scientist ( good or bad) ever writes up a paper with negative results with the exception of Grad students that got a loser of a thesis project.

V, seriously? Scientists will write what the data and facts warrant they write. I am not even sure what you mean by negative. The truth is NOT negative , it has been and always will be the way we humans can make correct decisions.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 08:17:03

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/atlantic-ocean-current-collapse-warning_us_587031f3e4b02b5f8588fa35?f02haoyl8e6xq1tt9

The risk was uncovered by Yale University scientist Wei Liu, who has calculated in a study published in Science Advances that the AMOC could collapse within 300 years once atmospheric carbon dioxide increases to 710 parts per million. Last week’s levels were 405 parts per million. There is already evidence that the AMOC has slowed, according to the paper. A shutdown would trigger “prominent cooling” of the northern North Atlantic and a “remarkable sea ice expansion,” according to Wei’s model. In addition, the normal rain belt of the temperate areas would be pushed significantly southward over the tropical Atlantic.


So, we may have an upper limit of 300 years on the collapse of anything resembling our current climate regiment. Lot's of other bad things will likely happen a lot sooner though. You don't have to be a doomster to figure out what this all means.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 08:35:04

onlooker wrote:
But seriously no scientist ( good or bad) ever writes up a paper with negative results with the exception of Grad students that got a loser of a thesis project.

V, seriously? Scientists will write what the data and facts warrant they write. I am not even sure what you mean by negative. The truth is NOT negative , it has been and always will be the way we humans can make correct decisions.

Oh please nobody want's to here about the failures and those who have failed just want to move on. Look at Edison's development of the light bulb.
The source of the story about Edison trying thousands of experiments or materials is probably an 1890 interview in Harper's Monthly Magazine:

"'I speak without exaggeration when I say that I have constructed three thousand different theories in connection with the electric light, each one of them reasonable and apparently to be true. Yet only in two cases did my experiments prove the truth of my theory. My chief difficulty, as perhaps you know, was in constructing the carbon filament, the incandescence of which is the source of the light. Every quarter of the globe was ransacked by my agents, and all sorts of the queerest materials were used, until finally the shred of bamboo now utilized was settled upon. Even now,' Mr. Edison continued, 'I am still at work nearly every day on the lamp, and quite lately I have devised a method of supplying sufficient current to fifteen lamps with one horse-power. Formerly ten lamps per horse-power was the extreme limit.'"

So two wins out of three thousand. Did you ever hear a peep about the other 2998?
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 08:48:47

Your comparing apples and oranges V. In the case of Edison it was about an invention that could potentially make much money, so obviously you want to display a working model and something that does work In the case of global warming it is an ongoing process which we continue to make worse so obviously we want the straight honest facts so we can gauge the risk level and act accordingly
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 09:06:08

onlooker wrote:Your comparing apples and oranges V. In the case of Edison it was about an invention that could potentially make much money, so obviously you want to display a working model and something that does work In the case of global warming it is an ongoing process which we continue to make worse so obviously we want the straight honest facts so we can gauge the risk level and act accordingly

I'm sure the climate scientists would also like to display a "working model". So far they are limited to a couple of weeks. Perhaps they are on trial #1535 and have another thousand trials or more to go before they get it right. :)
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 12:06:34

I don't know what you are talking about VT. It seems to me pretty damn obvious we currently have significant changes that can be verified by the Mk I eyeball. The breaking up of the Arctic and Antarctc ice is about all the proof I need.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 12:43:15

Newfie wrote:I don't know what you are talking about VT. It seems to me pretty damn obvious we currently have significant changes that can be verified by the Mk I eyeball. The breaking up of the Arctic and Antarctc ice is about all the proof I need.

There is certainly observable warming taking place. I'm not arguing that. What I'm skeptical about is predictions based on climate models that are not yet sophisticated enough to run for more then a few days accurately but then used to predict the climate decades and centuries ahead.
And regardless how firm the science is there is absolutely nothing effective that will be done to change things for the better.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 13:08:10

Ibon wrote: "What motivates you?"

Soooo, a moderator is encouraging posters here to leave the site? Hmmm. Interesting... :)

Really though, there are still moments of brilliance from you and others, worth watching for.

And certain posters' climate-related posts are almost always informative and teach me things: T, dis, cid, kiwichick, sub, vox, onlooker, Plant...

It's just that constant trolling from the usual suspects makes the rest of the time here...tiresome.

It's like trying to post-graduate forum on advanced issues in cutting edge science while have the room is filled with unruly and unsupervised three year olds that have just discovered the joy of throwing their poop at the conference participants, and think that this means they are post-grad students.

At points, the stench can indeed get overwhelming, even while the conversation is still often enlightening.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 14:35:27

Enough off-topic BS, already. To return to the thread topic, I believe the available evidence says that "abrupt climate change" has been the norm for the last half million years or so:
Image
...which means that the unproven theory of AGW is absolutely useless for any purpose anyways.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 15:56:43

Wrong again Kaiser. We were in a relatively stable climatic period until the Industrial revolution and the spewing of so much CO2. So yes the history of Earth has been punctuated by abrupt climate changes but usually they have had some underlying reason. In this case the underlying reason is US. And no the Sun is not particularly potent in fact it is according to some scientists currently in a less luminescent period.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 16:00:08

Yes, Jeep, apparently it is very natural to have abrupt climate change within a few centuries.

https://phys.org/news/2017-01-climate-trigger-strong-sea.html

However, sometimes we are talking about ABRUPT climate change within a few years, but I fail to find that link, but I do recall watching a youtube conference video on that subject.

Also, there are anomalous sea level rises such as this (but I suspect that they can only contribute so much to SLR and are just local phenomena at that):

Sea levels in Northeast jumped 5 inches in just 2 years, study finds

http://mashable.com/2015/02/24/sea-level-rise-spike-northeast/#VMhVStCo8Zq3
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 16:01:45

@ kj.....thanks for the laugh.......I assume you are joking??
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