[yeahbut]

I think the biggest thing the peak oil commentators got wrong at that time was natural gas. Heinberg et al couldn't stop talking about the coming natural gas cliff back then. Still, it would be funny to check out some of the oil cheerleaders predictions from back then also... I wonder how many called $90- $100 sustained barrel price amidst a painfully persistent recession? I'm guessing none. Maybe from that perspective, the alarm bell ringers don't seem quite so silly?

[Buddy_J]

"would produce billions of barrels of oil" ''US oil production would turn around"

Who's opinion is it? Your? Not good enough. You need to reference a serious oil geologist.

USGS, estimate of 500 billion or so. Considering that the guy died in like 2001, why weren't the "oil experts" who couldn't see unconventional oil coming paying attention to bona fide experts on the topic?

10 BBL estimated as far back as 1974.

I'm thinking that an editor of the movie was asleep at the switch, because I would never in a million years think that of Colin or Matt or Simmons.

[Ache]

However, there wasn't single word in the 2006 video about frakking or "unconventional oil". They did mention the tar sands, but they completely missed the importance of shale oil. Colin Campbell kept claiming there would never again be a "new" geologic basin developed that would produce billions of barrels of oil (as we now see with shale oil from the Williston basin and other shale oil basins).

The peak oil experts in 2006---just 7 years ago---- never dreamed that US oil production would turn around and start increasing again due to frakking shale oil.

You cannot be real, LMAO

[Plantagenet]

However, there wasn't single word in the 2006 video about frakking or "unconventional oil". They did mention the tar sands, but they completely missed the importance of shale oil. Colin Campbell kept claiming there would never again be a "new" geologic basin developed that would produce billions of barrels of oil (as we now see with shale oil from the Williston basin and other shale oil basins).

The peak oil experts in 2006---just 7 years ago---- never dreamed that US oil production would turn around and start increasing again due to frakking shale oil.


This 2006 film got some things right, and some things wrong.

You cannot be real

Of course I'm real.

Look---I posted some thoughts in this topic, you read my words, my thoughts then triggered your own thoughts to form in your brain, and you typed a message back. Your message read "You cannot be real."

Get it now?

[Ache]

However, there wasn't single word in the 2006 video about frakking or "unconventional oil". They did mention the tar sands, but they completely missed the importance of shale oil. Colin Campbell kept claiming there would never again be a "new" geologic basin developed that would produce billions of barrels of oil (as we now see with shale oil from the Williston basin and other shale oil basins).

The peak oil experts in 2006---just 7 years ago---- never dreamed that US oil production would turn around and start increasing again due to frakking shale oil.


This 2006 film got some things right, and some things wrong.

You cannot be real

Of course I'm real.

Look---I posted some thoughts in this topic, you read my words, my thoughts then triggered your own thoughts to form in your brain, and you typed a message back. Your message read "You cannot be real."

Get it now?

[seahorse3]

Plant,

You raise interesting questions about how someone like Campbell could miss the shale oil revolution. I haven't watched the DVD.

I did watch, back in 2004, a documentary called "The End of Surburbia" and it was enlightening.

http://endofsuburbia.com/

The End of Surburia was enlightening bc it went into detail about how energy is the foundation of everything, including our economics, and specifically went into how the two biggest drivers of the American economy, housing and cars, were built on cheap energy that wasn't sustainable. Basically, they trace the historical development of the car and housing. Housing and the auto industry were the drivers of the modern American economy from WWII onward. The documentary, released at the height of the housing boom, questioned whether an economy built on housing and cars could continue. I think they were right in suggesting it couldn't, and didn't, continue it is grotesque distorted growth.

Until watching that documentary, I never really appreciated the importance that "oil" and energy in general played in everything we do. I was ignorant and still am. However, I now have an appreciation for energy. I don't take it for granted.

"The End of Suburbia" is worth watching today. Its a good beginning for beginners and the truth of its questions and assertions have been proven over time, so no reason a beginner has to question the assumptions. They can watch and with their own recent experiences understand the questions and concerns raised are legitimate and then move onto how to we handle the issues. The themes presented are true today, higher costs for everything force the view to consider what is sustainable and what is more realistic. It changed my outlook and helped me understand the world, politics, my own individual decisions. I think its worth watching.

[Lore]

It all comes down to a major catastrophic misallocation of our remaining resources. We are just beginning to realize that as supplies are relegated to the growing dependence on unconventional extraction of fossil fuels, prices are can no longer be restrained within limits that won't spell disaster for future economies around the planet.

[Plantagenet]

We are just beginning to realize that as supplies are relegated to the growing dependence on unconventional extraction of fossil fuels, prices are can no longer be restrained within limits that won't spell disaster for future economies around the planet.

Who do you think is realizing that?

Obama and the Ds and the MSM and a majority of Americans all think the economy is doing great, and we are on our way to energy independence, and things are generally headed in the right direction.

[Plantagenet]

Plant,

You raise interesting questions about how someone like Campbell could miss the shale oil revolution...

I did watch, back in 2004, a documentary called "The End of Surburbia" and it was enlightening.

http://endofsuburbia.com/

The End of Surburia was enlightening bc it went into detail about how energy is the foundation of everything, including our economics, and specifically went into how the two biggest drivers of the American economy, housing and cars, were built on cheap energy that wasn't sustainable.

Yup.

It wasn't just Dr. Campbell who missed it----Matt Simmons also missed it entirely, and he supposedly had his finger directly on the pulse of the US oil industry through his corporation---Simmons and Co. It detracts significantly from the video "A Crude Awakening" that it was completely asleep to the biggest development in US oil supplies in 40 years---the fracking revolution.

I also checked "End of Suburbia" out of our library a few years ago. Its criticism of sprawling suburbia and the lack of mass transit is partly cultural and partly economic, and still holds up really well.

[Arthur75]

About the future of oil extraction, in the Scientif American in which Campbell and Lahererre published "the end of cheap oil" in 1998, there were quite a few other articles, they got the tar sands right, horizontal drilling, but no mention of fracking either.
Below pdf with the Campbell Lahererre paper and all these articles :
http://tribune-pic-petrolier.org/wp-con ... re1998.pdf

[Buddy_J]

USGS, estimate of 500 billion or so.

Sorry. You're saying it doesn't make it so. Reference please.

My apologies. Google is your friend.

http://www.undeerc.org/bakken/oilproduction.aspx

[Buddy_J]

Obama and the Ds and the MSM and a majority of Americans all think the economy is doing great, and we are on our way to energy independence, and things are generally headed in the right direction.

Of course. No one questions their savior. Just BELIEVE!!

[Plantagenet]

About the future of oil extraction, in the Scientif American in which Campbell and Lahererre published "the end of cheap oil" in 1998, there were quite a few other articles, they got the tar sands right, horizontal drilling, but no mention of fracking either.
Below pdf with the Campbell Lahererre paper and all these articles :
http://tribune-pic-petrolier.org/wp-con ... re1998.pdf

Thats interesting.

I'll cut Campbell et al. (1998) some slack on not foreseeing the importance of slickwater hydrofracking in 1998, as it was that same year in 1998 that the first "slickwater" hydrofracking was done in the Barnett Shale in Texas.

But Campbell and Simmons and the rest clearly didn't understand what was going on with frakking, when they failed to mention it when discussing the future of the oil biz in their 2006 movie.

[Tanada]

USGS, estimate of 500 billion or so.

Sorry. You're saying it doesn't make it so. Reference please.

My apologies. Google is your friend.

http://www.undeerc.org/bakken/oilproduction.aspx

I followed the link. Still not impressed, not with this sloppy stuff; "The estimates range from 10 to 500 billion bbl (Bbbl) of oil. " Which is it?

I rather doubt recoverable will ever reach 2 billion (much less 10 or 100). Not at the current 765k/day.

That adds up to about 280 Million bbl/year so in a decade you would get 2.8 Billion bbl. That is assuming productions stays at the 765k/d plateau and nothing like the collapse of civlization takes place.

[Plantagenet]

my negative prognosis was ... predicated on ... the implausibility of the tight-shale drill/fract/decline/re-fract/drill-anew merry-go-round continuing for more than several more investment cycles. Certainly not a decade, perhaps a year or two.

If you really believe that, then you should go short in the market on companies that provide frakking services and also on companies that work in the Bakken and rely on frakking for their oil production.

If you are are right you'll make a fortune. If you are wrong you will still learn a valuable lesson.


Do you really believe what you are saying? Do you feel lucky?

[Buddy_J]

I followed the link. Still not impressed, not with this sloppy stuff; "The estimates range from 10 to 500 billion bbl (Bbbl) of oil. " Which is it?

You followed the link, it is obvious the experts weren't sure, but it was known. And it was big. Which means the producers of that video were ignoring the obvious for some reason, or told Colin and Simmons to ignore it for fear of confusing the likes of those who were going to watch it. Who knows? But there is no excuse for ignoring it.

I rather doubt recoverable will ever reach 2 billion (much less 10 or 100). Not at the current 765k/day.

You doubted there were oil geologists involved in the estimates already provided. Better yet, there were oil scientists involved. Doubt all you wish, it doesn't appear to be working for you but it's a free country.

How about no more doubting, go find out! Sign up for a summer internship, earn some coin, give us the inside scoop. Assuming you have relevant qualifications of course.

http://www.eia.gov/about/careers/internships.cfm