[Opinion] 5 Rules for PO Prep.

[Pops]

Bumpity!

[Iaato]

Outstanding ideas. I'll just add one thought about prioritization: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs



The stuff at the bottom of the pyramid has to be taken care of before you can graduate to the stuff at the higher levels. I think of PO prep in these terms.

[DrBang]

This thread was interesting.

My daughter was born a few weeks ago. I often think of the world she will grow up in and the challenges that await her (while sitting up till the wee hours of the mornings). My wife and I have given her a blank canvas for her to create her life path. It is not for me to tell her what she should do or why. That being said, I would ask five things of her:

1 To be self aware and have real confidence in her inner strengths
2 To be capable & self sufficient
3 To take responsiblity for her own happiness
4 To be adaptable to change
5 To act decisively on matters that count

But we all ask, how could this be possible in the coming hard times? What is required is that she somehow survive and ride out the hard few years directly after the poo hits the fan. This I believe will be contingent on her banding together with a small group of tight knit people, each of which can be depended on in a storm. This tight knit group could either be part of a larger group of people who tend their own survival or are adaptable enough to keep moving.

In the short term, for me:

1 Get out of debt: disconnect from the rat race and be happy about it. In the great depression, families were turfed out of their homes because they couldn't meet their morgages and lived in their cars.

2 Self educate myself and the people who I will depend on when the time comes in all the usefull areas of knowledge.
Emergency protocols (first aid, fire fighting and the like)
Woodwork and metal work (under new rules where you can't just buy what you need. Learn to improvise.
Learn to fix and repair things like generators.
Learn basic electonics.
Learn how building systems work
Learn plumbing.
Learn black smithing
Learn as much IT and computer tech as possible.
Learn to garden. Permaculture and companion planting. Food to eat and other useful plants to live off.
Learn landscaping, pasture management and drainage for design purposes.
Learn holistic natural remedies from herbs.
Learn about horses and livestock.
Learn archery and martial arts (guns too if you can)
Study history and human responses and learn from them



3 Invest in equipment, tools and food stuffs that will empower me and my family to live more effectively that will be hard to come by in the times to come (keep as much of this hidden as possible, tell no one).

Replace as many of the white goods (fridges washing machines, etc) as possible with good quality units. While things are still cheap. Inculde several good quality radios.

A functional workshop that is kitted for wood and steel
Tools to fix a wide range of things from generators to power cells (as many that don't require power as possible).
A reserviour of nails, nuts and bolts, glue (all the small bits that make things possible to make).
Equipment to recycle and shape metal products from scrap
Tools to set up and maintain a big permaculture garden
Sewing machines & overlockers to make and repair clothes
Mutiple medic kits of high calibre with a reserve of pharmicuticals and antibotics
Camping gear, several sets
A kick arse library
Water tanks and plumbing for the house (even a rental where they can be moved)
Solar panels that can be moved if necessary
Clothes and shoes (good quality)
Stuff to be used for barter (cigarettes, alchohol, etc)
A bug out kit ready to go if necessary
Security measures that are not obvious but are strong

4 Remember at all times, it is what is between my ears that will make the diference when TSHTF. Be mentally prepared to leave it all behind if necessary. Don't get too attached to things that ultimately don't matter. The ability to problem solve in the face of adversity is what is required here. Improvise. Remeber what is most important and not lose sight of it.

5 Get in there and do stuff that builds communities in context of the new world. A community is much stronger if it can be built, than a mobile indiviual. This is keeping the end game in sight though where you don't want a Mad Max senario to happen or if it does, it doesn't last indefinitely.

This all takes planning and money. The mental ability to adapt I believe is the most important point of all. If you have that, then the rest will kind take care of itself.

[DavidFolks]

1) Have the good fortune to be born to the right parents. A father in the military, who spent his childhood as part of a large (12 kids) family. He learned to cook from his mother, who had him help with the full time job of feeding the mob, and his father who was a highly regarded chef. He spent summers working for a gentleman farmer who insisted on doing things the old way. Had a mixed farm, and grew apples, seed potatoes, grain... Used horses to drive the farm equipment, grew organic, and made a profit when those around him insisted on using petroleum based fertilizers and tractors. A mother from another large family, who learned to stand up to her brothers, and never say die. Spent time as a model, and learned to move in higher social circles with grace and aplomb. Both with an excellent work ethic, and encouragement for whatever endeavor their children pursued.

2) Grow up without a lot of money. Work along side of your father when he's home. Build forms, place concrete, install plumbing and electrical, do carpentry and plaster work. Dig gardens and landscape. Build sheds and additions. Work with your mother in the kitchen, learn to cook, garden, make jams and jellies and preserves. Can food, bake bread, mend clothes and clean. Paint and hang wallpaper. Re-finish old furniture.

3) Spend time moving around a lot, going wherever your dad is posted. See various parts of your own country, and spend a few years in Europe. Travel through various countries while you're there. This will help you see that people are all basically the same. Customs and taboos may differ, but reactions to behaviour remain the same. Learn that there are different ways to do things, and that no single person or culture has all the right answers. Helps to learn to be accepting as opposed to tolerant.

4) Quit high school 3/4 of the way through your senior year to take an apprenticeship in toolmaking. This has the advantage of entering the work force while you still know everything. Make sure that your boss is a hardnosed businessman who doesn't hesitate to can your ass when you figure you can do as you like, instead of doing what you're told. Spend a decade or two moving from job to job, and field to field. You'll gain valuable experience at a lot of things, and find there's about a dozen ways to skin a cat. Get a solid, practical competence at a little bit of everything. Remember that a man with a hammer sees every problem as a nail. Build a bigger toolbox for yourself. Educate yourself, and develop a large diverse library. Finally settle on work that is mentally stimulating, spiritually satisfying, and produces something useful and tangible. If you can do this as your own boss, so much the better.

5) Find the perfect partner. One who can balance your weaknesses, and who is complemented by your strengths. Someone who you enjoy living and working with, who not only appreciates the support you give them, but supports you as well. Build a life together. Use your united strength to build something larger than yourselves. Work on developing systems and strategies that you can share with others to enrich the lives of your fellow man.

{edit}

6) It helps if your dad teaches you to hunt and fish, and to dress and eat what you kill, not hunt for "sport". Spend time on your uncles' farm, and learn about livestock and crop production. Working with another uncle to restore cars is educational. Living on a farm for a while, working with horses and maintaining pastures gives you a few insights too. Heat your home with wood for a while, and learn to manage a wood lot.

In a nutshell, pay attention to everything around you, learn all you can, and try to see the interdependance of everything in your life. Understanding how things work together, and having broad experience in life will always serve you well.

[Pops]

(I thought I had posted a note here to Sky and all but I guess I did something wrong.)

Anyway, I put this in the stuck location of Assessments and Plans thread because it had seemed to run it’s course.

[Heineken]

God, there is just so much to do. I don't dispute that these interminable lists of steps are good things to do, but it can become overwhelming, especially to fellers like myself who are already thoroughly burdened with functioning in the precollapse world.

I go keep going back to my earlier "rule": Prepare yourself for the possibility of failure and a graceful letting go.

As you get older, the idea of slipping peacefully beneath the waves should become less terrifying and more lovely. I call that wisdom.

[Pops]

As you get older, the idea of slipping peacefully beneath the waves should become less terrifying and more lovely. I call that wisdom.

I’m not sure how old you are Heine but I asked my wife to cut the plug when I can no longer make or teach my grandkids how to make something.

Before that I call it quitting; after I call it begging..

[rdberg1957]

One thing I am planning is bariatric surgery. My insurance will cover it and I will probably lose 130lbs of excess weight. Then I will be able to pursue physical fitness goals and survive on less food than normal.

[Blacksmith]

I live in a part of the country where getting trades to repair or build is all but impossible. Because of these fortunate circumstances, I have learned to fend for myself, building, repairing, and reusing.

[Heineken]

As you get older, the idea of slipping peacefully beneath the waves should become less terrifying and more lovely. I call that wisdom.

I’m not sure how old you are Heine but I asked my wife to cut the plug when I can no longer make or teach my grandkids how to make something.

Before that I call it quitting; after I call it begging..

51, Pops, closing fast on 52. You?

Turning 50 was the biggest phase-shift I've hit so far. Still can do 13 or 14 pull-ups, though, but I've realized I'm never going to hit 20 no matter how hard I try. Injury will intervene first.

Getting older can really alter your perspective on PO preparation, because the older you get, the more dependent you are on the status quo, not change.

[PrairieMule]

Everyone has a system, mine is PARA.

Preparation
Attitude
Relaxation
Attunement

I stole it from Michael Bane's book Trailsafe.

Get a code or acronym, then live it.

[Revi]

I call what I am doing peak oil speculation. Since we know something about what's going to happen it makes preparation much easier. Here's what we are doing:

1) Useful land. Maple syrup operation, garden spots.

2) A boat that can row, motor or sail. The ultimate bug-out tool.

3) Pre-65 silver coins. Real Money.

4) An old mill site with hydro potential.

5) Solar and conservation. PV and solar hot water.

6) Small pickup that gets over 28mpg. Other car over 40mpg.

7) Community building. Farmer's market, revitalized downtown.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst...

[Pops]

Really glad I stuck this thread, lots of great responses folks, thanks!

51, Pops, closing fast on 52. You?
... the more dependent you are on the status quo, not change.

I’m gonna be 50 on Sunday Heni.

I do feel a little different about getting older and change. There is a saying I once heard:
The only difference between a rut and a grave is the depth of the hole.

And the always popular:
You don’t wear out, you rust out.

And one more fairly new one:
I ain't as good as I once was, but....

Aside from cliches, and the fact I am now doing pretty well what I envisioned doing when I was 10, laying a groundwork for at least my grandkids if not my kids is a bigger driving force than any of my previous desires for a bass boat or bigger TV or a blond.

Not that I don't think about...
Nevermind.

Anyway, like DrBang mentioned, thinking about how my offspring will get by is a great incentive; I take it into account any time I need to make a big decision.

[Ferretlover]

In addition to the many good ideas already posted here, I have a few additional ideas and am trying to fine tune them.

1) Inventory: Inventory what you have. Compile a list of what you need, and start purchasing the items (Nothing 'brings home' the feeling of peak everything like standing in the checkout line with your prep items).
2) Evaluate: Everything. Your home and surroundings-If you are planning to move to a better location, do it by next spring at the latest. If you are planning, for whatever reason, to stay where you are, evaluate your area. Look at your home from the point of someone who wants to take everything you have. Fences, shatterproof glass for lower windows, smaller windows, brick, rock or whatever for the walls-something that bullets can't get through.
(If you don't want your neighbors to know that you are preparing, put the brick, stone, etc on the inside walls.) Pay attention to the comings & goings of neighbors, etc so that you will be aware of who is in your area. Convert gas and electric fireplaces to wood burning (even if you don't have wood, you can burn other things.) Add a cooking fireplace in the kitchen if you can. Going to need a new roof soon? Do it asap. Those asphalt shingles won't be around forever. Fence everything-tell the nosy neighbors when they ask why you are thinking of putting in a pool next summer.
3) Plant: Get rid of the useless lawn. You won't have gas for the lawn mower & weed eater anyway. Plant fruit & nut trees now. Plant trees to replace those you have cut for firewood. They need time to take root and grow. Plant evergreens on the northside of the house, and deciduous (sp?) on the south side. Kids don't need a huge space to play in (say 8' x 8'?). If you haven't already started your gardens, start prepping your lawn now.
4) Every home should have a panic room-for invaders, bad weather, etc. They used to be called fallout shelters. In addition to obvious in & out doors, you should have a hidden way to leave your home. Build a treehouse/observation post if you have the right tree.
5) Code word(s): Plan where you could go if it became impossible to stay in your current home. Make copies of important papers (birth certificates, passports, etc) so that each adult person can prove who they are (in case they get separated) , and head of the house keeps originals. Arrange a code word or phrase with responsible mature members of the family. Assign what this word will mean. Does it mean you & yours are 'bugging out?' Does it mean where you are going? Does it mean 'no matter what you are doing, leave now! for pre-arranged meetup spot?'
6) Don't tell anyone outside your immediate family (unless you have a like-minded sibling) why and what you are doing. Do not tell your children. (Let them have their childhood while they can, and kids have the biggest mouths!! lol) Lie. You know perfectly well that as things grow worse, there are a great many people who Will try to take all you have. Humans are motivated by two things: fear and greed.
I know that these sound terrible and, possibly even paranoid.. But, no matter how easy your life is now, peak everything IS coming in our lifetimes. By preparing now, you have time to get over/become desensitized to the fear of the unknown.
When my husband traveled a lot in the winter time, I would make him carry a gallon of distilled water, snow boots, a small shovel, a sleeping bag, etc in his trunk. My theory was that if he broke down, he would be able to survive, and as many years as I have insisted that he carry those things, he never once needed them.
But, It Did Not Hurt Anything or Anyone To Be Prepared.

I don't think that TSWHTF today, tomorrow or even next week. But, peak-just-about-everything has occurred, and it is time to get serious about survival if you haven't already.
You still have a choice: prepare or be consumed. The tricky part was knowing when to know what to do--do you wait a bit longer (everything still SEEMS to be all honky-dorey)? I don't think so. There are way too many variables-availability (is it still being made? will you be able to afford it as demand surpasses supply?), wide-spread panic when even the dumbest of people start to figure out they are in trouble (everyone cleaning out the stores), etc.

[Heineken]

I call what I am doing peak oil speculation. Since we know something about what's going to happen it makes preparation much easier. Here's what we are doing:

1) Useful land. Maple syrup operation, garden spots.

2) A boat that can row, motor or sail. The ultimate bug-out tool.

3) Pre-65 silver coins. Real Money.

4) An old mill site with hydro potential.

5) Solar and conservation. PV and solar hot water.

6) Small pickup that gets over 28mpg. Other car over 40mpg.

7) Community building. Farmer's market, revitalized downtown.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst...

This is a solid little list.

I see land ownership as especially important. There are so many reasons to own land---some practical, some less so. Even cheap, marginal land can often be greatly improved with liberal applications of elbow grease.

If I didn't own land, I'd feel completely emasculated.

[Kilgore_Trout]

a lot of these are somewhat similar, so purely for diversifying the responses somewhat, and perhaps for argument's sake, I'll try to make a different 5 steps

I'm the only one I know personally that understands and accepts the looming problems of peak oil (and its convergence with fractional lending, environmental problems, etc etc) OF those people who I think are SOMEWHAT preparedness-minded, (maybe they own a gun or keep a little food stocked just in case) I have asked the question, "For the sake of argument, if the peak oil scenario does happen, what will you do?" It usually boils down to (after discussing the limited options and realities of the situation) "Well, I'll just have to take what I want/need from someone else."

Postulate that there will be a hard crash and a bottleneck you have to get through that will last say a year or two. People will want to "optimize" available resources. The government, community, and individuals will want to redistribute by guilt or by force, anything that will be useful during the crisis until there are no more people, no more crisis, or no more resources left to redistribute.

Starting with a given that there will be a survival bottleneck,the worst portion confined within a 1-2 year time frame with a major die-off, then any preparedness plans must first and foremost deal with how to get through it. I for one also take as a given that I am determined to try to be neither a victim, nor someone who victimizes others.


1. have everything you need to get through a year. two years would be better.

Your gardens may be pillaged or destroyed, not to mention call attention to your location. Animals would be noticeable too. Fruit/Nut trees may not make it through this time, as "optimization" of resources will mean that all trees available to be chopped down for heat in the winter WILL be chopped down (...until winter ends, everyone dies, or you run out of trees) In a hard crash, I imagine growing food will be prohibitively difficult so long as people are alive that are not prepared.


2. have a place to keep yourself and your supplies safe

You will not be able to move the supplies you need to get through the time of troubles. I was hard pressed just to carry 1,000 rounds of ammunition to my car, let alone all my food. I would not want to be caught out in the woods with a 3-day go-bag, two clips of ammo, and nowhere to go. I fear that if you cannot keep your stash, you may be hosed per #1. So have a Good Place for the Stuff.


3. it is best to be hidden or for your location to seem undesirable in some way

The place with your stuff needs to be either hidden, inaccessible, or impregnable, and I'm not a fan of attempting the impregnable route, at least not as a first line of defense. I can see this going one of two ways... purposely choosing an undesirable location, or defending a desirable one. A place in the desert on the one hand, or good farmland on the other, away from a city could be places to consider.

I imagine if you were in a valley with THICK, MULTIPLE well-placed hedgerows, brambles, poison ivy, etc. covering the approaches in depth, you might remain in a very pleasant island of calm for the entire crisis... everyone coming your way might find other routes more desirable and simply turn aside. I've been thinking a city location would be much like a desert location. Given an extremely defensible and innocuous position, it might be a good place to weather the storm, (6 stories high in a large all-concrete apartment building for instance...) precisely due to the location's undesirability. Along the same lines, perhaps a suburban house with a large basement with a WELL-hidden entrance? If the ceiling of the basement was concrete, perhaps there could be a well-planned way of burning down the upper wooden part of the house in the event of permanent unwanted squatters moving in? The ruins would indicate that property was already "tapped out." Anything to make the place hidden and unattractive.

People will not want to lay down and die. If they see you have something they need to survive and they or their loved ones are dying, they will have to at least give taking it a try. Best to hunker down in secrecy so you don't have to shoot at anyone or be shot.


4. You will probably have to go it alone through the bottleneck (along with with loved ones)

I really do like the idea of community, but in a hard crash, some will be less prepared than others. By what margin will they be unprepared and by what margin might you scrape by? In a crisis situation, you'll be compelled to contribute in the same way we contribute food to africa and make matters worse. All that will matter is that people are starving/dying NOW and need help. Human compassion dictates as much. Even if all members of the community are in fact ready to get through the time of troubles, each fully prepared to pull their own weight, they will have varying levels of hard-heartedness. Unprepared people will show up. If just one person in your prepared community "lets them in," the same rules apply as above... they are now part of the community and deserving of compassion/aid. This would also increase the number of people willing to let still more people in. HOW MUCH of a margin will you have in your plans for yourself and your loved ones? Are you prepared to get 5 extra people through a year? 20? Acts of both callousness or mercy could easily fragment a community through disagreement or "optimize" its resources to the point of not making it through the crunch. A community will be hard to hide, and possibly difficult/heartbreaking to defend. Who wants to gun down a nice bunch of suburban families because they're breaking down your hedge to get to your nut-bearing trees to chop them down for firewood? Not me. Worse yet, who wants to get gunned down by them? Given the necessity of a stash, one must go it alone (preferably using concealment)


5. Be prepared for the aftermath.

Be prepared to emerge to plant crops and form a community with the people who were as prepared as you... once the crash is complete, NOW it is time to form community with the prepared people who made it through. No longer faced with an overwhelming demand for your own meagre resources, you can afford to cut people some slack and see if they'll shape up to be a good neighbor (and expend some effort and resources on proving yourself one...), or confidently rebuff attempts to mooch (the moochers/looters ought to die off to relatively more manageable numbers, having exhausted all the resources they could get their hands on.)

Again, if there is a severe bottleneck due to a hard, quick crash, then the most important thing is getting through it. The next most important thing (to me) would be HOW you get through it. The way to get through it with the least amount of savagery (from others or oneself) seems to be isolation/concealment.

(edited out new guinea stuff, as it only distracts from the point of the thread)

[mos6507]

When I first learned about peak oil my immediate plan was to dump my savings into a Trimaran and load it up like an ark and wander around the world with my daughter and maybe a few other family members until the die-off completes itself.

I think that's an all-too-convenient scenario, that in a brief timespan that people will just die off by some means or another. I think more likely will be a slow deterioration of society. Recession to depression to pockets of anarchy and revolt, and so on. It will play out in a much longer timescale and it will be impossible to just hide out.

I think with 6 billion people on the planet, every corner of the globe is going to be covered by refugees. So it will be very hard to pick a spot to have a house and have it not get discovered by some marauders eventually. Your best chances would be in someplace inhospitable, but again, with six billion people, plenty of others will have the same idea. You're kind of counting on the law of averages and hoping you stay separated enough from eachother not to meet and exchange gunfire.

So really, I am not sure the whole hermit approach will work. And even if it did, it's not going to be easy relying only on your own wits to survive.

It would be far better to try to build sustainable communities during the collapse as there will be strength in numbers. So I think a more likely scenario will be the US breaking up into heavily guarded communes. Kind of like gated communities on steroids. People will have to hunker down, claim land, and not allow their numbers to go over the breakingpoint under pain of death. Inbetween these communities it will be a free-for-all as people helplessly seek some kind of sanctuary or form a new ad-hoc community. It's basically a game of musical chairs.

That's what I think the most likely scenario will be.

I think mitigation efforts could have helped avoid violence if we had started a decade earlier with a brave face and full awareness of the problem, but will be too little too late now.

Of course, I hope I'm wrong but it does appear that oil peaked two years ago so the clock is ringing and we're just not ready. It doesn't matter if a handful of people are living sustainably. It's the other 99.999% that will screw their lives up.

[Revi]

I don't think we can really prepare as an individual for what's coming. There is no way we can hold off the hordes when things go bad. The only way is in a community.

My five rules are as follows:

1) Get off fossil fuel! Anything that uses less of the stuff, great. More efficient cars, solar hot water, woodstoves, etc. Get it now!

2) Get out of debt. Pay off the mortgage, cars, etc in the next few years. It's only going to get harder soon.

3) Reduce your day to day expenses. Learn to live on less, because we will all be forced to do it soon.

4) Start to form community. Shop at the farmer's market, form a CSA, help with the library, etc.

5) Try to remain cheerful. Sure the situation's dire, but we must keep our spirits up. Always look on the bright side of life! (like in the final scenes of Life of Bryan)

[one_more_day]

1. Have multiple plans for any situation.

2. Practice all of those plans, not just the ones you prefer.

3. Evaluate your area for potential friends and enemies.

4. Work out for yourself the ethics of survival.

5. Be grateful that you ever had the chance to enjoy modern conveniences. Your ancestors and descendents never had it so easy.

[Rogozhin]

1. Go to bed early.

2. Learn about the threatining insects within a 200 mile radius.

4. Learn at least 3 other languages.

5. Become a pimp.

Rogo

3. I'll let Descartes edit this one.