[Graeme]

5 Industries Worried About Peak Oil

The debate over the impact of peak oil has been raging for decades. Although few deny that the end of mass oil consumption is drawing nearer, educated estimates now range between 2020 and 2030. But more important than the timeframe of peak oil are its consequences. Some seek to spell the end of life as we know it, so reliant is the world upon black gold. Others, equally extreme in their views, embrace the news, looking forward to a time when humanity will magically clean up its act. The truth is somewhere in the middle. Clean energy sources are making major advances as they become cheaper and easier to implement while almost all OEMs have launched lavish research programs into vehicles powered by other means. But the consequences of peak oil are not to be underestimated. Society would undergo a difficult time, given the sheer spread of oil on our culture. Doomsday predictions of civilization having to survive without electricity, or planes being grounded are one thing, but petroleum is a heavy component of many more industries than that.

Agriculture

Industrialized agriculture is a massive consumer of oil, for irrigation, for motorized transport, and for something far more important. It is well-known that the use of fertilizer unlocked the potential of mass agriculture, allowing for the feeding of billions and virtually wiping out starvation and malnutrition in the developed world. Fertilizer may only account for 20% of energy use but it is arguably agriculture’s most important component, after water. The most common chemical mixture for fertilizers, known as the Haber-Bosch, mixes nitrogen with hydrogen to form ammonia, with the hydrogen mostly being extracted from oil. This would seem to indicate the end for such fertilizers once oil resources begin to run out. Thankfully, there is an ongoing debate about how bad this would be. Fertilizer composition has shifted toward using natural gas, with methane used instead of hydrogen. Until we run out of natural gas, it would seem that although we might not be able to drive to McDonald’s, we’ll still be able to make the burgers.

Plastics

oilprice

[Keith_McClary]

Chemicals
Healthcare
Homeopathy

[Ayoob]

The homeopathy thing is so stupid it's not even wrong. Moving away from quackery makes the same list as all transportation?

[sparky]

Agriculture , or rather agro business ,is absolutely nescessary to feed 95% of the population ,
they can pass their cost on the consumer , which will have to cope it

Same with chemical and petrochemical , input cost are simply transfered to the consumer

an industry in trouble is mass air travel , fuel is at least 50 % of the cost there will be some demand destruction

all the discretionnary spending ,
with les money in their pocket the average Joe/ Jane will spend less on fun and concentrate on nescessities

government business ,
as income decrease , the pressure to lighten taxes will be a political hot potatoe
it always is of course but the shrinking of the tax base will be a game changer
probably a cut in social services and welfare will be the first cabs of the rank

[Shaved Monkey]

Tourism
can be a large percentage of national GDP for lots of countries

[JimBof]

Oil is too valuable to burn. It is needed as a feedstock for manufacturing. Without oil most pharmaceuticals would disappear. After that I will no longer be able to worry, for me they are what keep me alive. I am a transplant recipient.

[Longtimber]

Current grid generated watt/hrs to end user requires lot's o oil. pricy oil = pricy coal/NG. Nat gas conversion has reduced crude consumption a bit, but unconventional NG requires ++ crude too. I understand that NG suppliers won't write long nat gas contracts, so electricity prices shall be volatile. Anyone have scoop or timeframe for the 1st US LNG 4 EXPORT contact? That should heat up US NG / Electrical prices. Electric rates here in NW Florida have risen 8% a year over last decade . ?5 Industries? Utilities 4 certain. How about The Entire Economy As We Know It. TEEAWKI

[hvacman]

The mini-mart industry

As high oil prices push home-charged long-range electric vehicles further into the world's transportation market, fewer people will need to make their weekly re-fueling stop at to the local mini-mart, which means "while I'm here" impulse purchases of Big Gulps, King-size candy bars, and over-grilled hot dogs will take a major hit:)

[Shaved Monkey]

The service industry
The guy mowing your lawn, shampooing your dog,cleaning your house and delivering your pizza.
They need cars and they need you to have a job that pays more than them and gives you no time to do what they do.

[Surf]

The most common chemical mixture for fertilizers, known as the Haber-Bosch, mixes nitrogen with hydrogen to form ammonia, with the hydrogen mostly being extracted from oil. This would seem to indicate the end for such fertilizers once oil resources begin to run out. Thankfully, there is an ongoing debate about how bad this would be. Fertilizer composition has shifted toward using natural gas, with methane used instead of hydrogen. Until we run out of natural gas

Haber-Bosch process makes ammonia and was invented in 1909. The vast majority of the early ammonia plants use electricity from hydroelectric facilities to make ammonia. Electricity filtered Nitrogen out of the air and water was split into oxygen and hydrogen. Oil, gas, and coal were not commonly used until after World War II. Fossil fuel is not required to make ammonia. Fossil fuels however have been historically very cheep. With fossil fuels getting more expensive and wind and solar power getting cheaper I would not be surprised to see ammonia plants being converted to run on wind and solar in the next few years.

hydrocarbon chemicals are typically made in two ways:

1. A hydrocarbon is converted to mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide gas which is then converted by a catalyst to the desired chemical.

3. A hydrocarbon is heated rapidly to cause it to break down and is then rapidly cooled. Various chemicals are then filtered out of the resulting gas.

Note I did say fissile fuels, oil, gas, or coal. Instead I said Hydrocarbon. Hydrocarbon can be oil, gas, coal, or biomass. Wood, bio gas, vegetable oil can be converted to chemicals using either method. Oil is not required. Until recently is was only cheaper. It is also possible using electricity and sea water to produce hydrogen and Carbon monoxide which can then be converted to chemicals using a catalyst. The US military developed this process for possible use in the navy to allow nuclear ships to produce jet fuel.

Plastics are made from chemicals. As I have pointed out those chemicals don't have to be made from oil.

Modern healthcare uses a lot of plastics to make bandages and medical devices. Most medicines are made from plants, or special microorganism. Not oil. So many of the drugs we use today are not made from oil. Again many of the plastics used in medical devices can be made from biomass or glass and metal can be used instead.

The article was however correct that only small quantities of oil, 10% to 15% or world production is used to make plastics or chemicals. What the article didn't state is that most oil is not used to make anything. Most is simply burned to generate electricity or to provide energy to power cars, trucks, ships and aircraft. The biggest use of oil is to move people and things. We know electricity can be used to power cars, trucks, and trains. Ships can use wind, nuclear power or burn biomass. For aircraft bio fuel or making fuel using solar or wind power are the alternatives.

With oil, coal, and natural gas getting more expensive every year it is not surprising that wind, solar, geothermal, and electric vehicle production has all gone into exponential growth at about the same time.

[StarvingLion]

******** such as this makes me laugh:

"We know electricity can be used to power cars, trucks, and trains."

because its meaningless without any reference to the costs of working at scale. Plus, your entire post ignores the inability of yourself to make direct claims on industrial output. You have no power over access to rare earths so why do you assume they will just end up in your battery powered car? Because 'Surf' is exceptional!!!! His political "representatives" love him so much that they tremble in fear over his lost vote. His overlord CEO has insomnia because 'Surf' is indispensable. Oh wait, most of the polyannas around here are retirees or near-retirees. The gov cheque is in the mail.

Mining the air, splitting water from all that "excess" "renewable" energy, ignore the real costs of biomass logistics,....I mean you guys are the Kings of Fairy Tales. And why not....the gov cheque is in the mail. Nah wait, cant afford a real mail service any more...Ho Ho HO. I can just smell the insolvency in these threads. Wow, the stench of insolvency is overwhelming. But yeah, keep dreaming about mining the air for carbon little dude.

[Pops]

As Surf noted, oil is just concentrated biomass, so to say ag is worried about PO is to ignore where the replacement for those hydrocarbons will come from - carbohydrates.

This is pretty interesting ...
Before The Wells Run Dry

Vegetable matter and minerals have competed with each other to become the dominant industrial input for almost 200 years. For the first 150 years, significant advances occurred in the use of both types of material. Then, for a quarter of a century after World War II, hydrocarbons took over almost completely but since the 1980s, carbohydrate-derived industrial products have been sweeping back as a result of technological and political developments.

Read the rest, it's pretty good.

[hvacman]

So to rewire America's single family homes will cost a cool $50 billion.

Yes p-starr, but if that average homeowner replaces a $0.10/mile gas-engine driven car with a $0.04/mile EV and 8,000 miles/year in EV mode, they save $480/year. That's a heck of a return on that $600/house investment and improves each year that gas prices go up faster than electric prices.