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+21000 on the Dow

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Wed 19 Jul 2017, 21:29:58

You can ignore crazy p/e by not investing in companies that have them. Unless you believe that a company like Facebook crashing and burning will take down the entire market. I see no reason to believe that.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Wed 26 Jul 2017, 15:25:29

Another day, another record on the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500.

Dow 21,711
NASDAQ 6422
S&P 500 2477

ATT stock went ballistic today from some better than average earnings. Up 5% in a day. This is one of my long stocks that has had dismal stock performance. But it pays an adequate dividend. Unknown if their proposed acquisition of Times-Warner will be approved. Hopefully.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 27 Jul 2017, 20:10:09

pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I agree completely. I'm terrified of speculative stocks with monster (or infinite) PE's, and stay away.


By reacting only to your own preconceptions (having deemed me a 'doomer') you feel free to ignore crazy P/E.

At your own risk. Surf on, dude. The sun always shines. :)

Do you have a learning disability, or do you just not bother to read?

What part of my quote above, which I highlighted in red font for emphasis, mayes you feel I "ignore crazy P/E" [sic]?

And what about me thinking you're a doomer (which I stand by based on your long history of posts stating or implying doom) has anything to do with how I invest?

Long term, you posting seems to trend toward being more and more divorced from reality.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 07:23:02

I think the perception is, among the hard core doomers, is that if you don't embrace the catastrophic type doom they espouse, is that you embrace recklessness in investing. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Most long term investors recognize up and down trends and use them to their advantage. None of us can predict exactly what the market is going to do. If you say you can, you are either a fool or a liar. You do the best research you can and go from there.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 08:14:47

Actually, what is happening transcends all the "normal" market behavior. We are talking about the prelude to a world wide Depression. Nobody wins except maybe the Banks. We are also talking about no rebound or recovery. Sell, sell , sell.
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 08:41:01

onlooker wrote:We are also talking about no rebound or recovery.


That's what everyone said after we hit bottom on the credit crisis.

Doomers always see the flow of history as a one-way street downward. There's never any upwards movement allowed. Instead what we get is, while not necessarily a return to the gay 90s, a return to, more or less, BAU.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 20:23:27

onlooker wrote:Actually, what is happening transcends all the "normal" market behavior. We are talking about the prelude to a world wide Depression. Nobody wins except maybe the Banks. We are also talking about no rebound or recovery. Sell, sell , sell.

When it comes to economics, your constant doomer prattling has all the usefulness of the zerohedge site. Congrats.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 20:36:26

Right on Onlooker. The cornies are merely pumping their own shaky investments. They have an undying believe that their own 'positive' attitude will somehow save the economy. Just hubris. Translate their paradigm: 'screw the fundamentals'

Outcaste, take your positive attitude to church. Or the PTA. This place is for grownup
Last edited by pstarr on Fri 28 Jul 2017, 20:38:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 20:38:29

pstarr wrote:Right on Onlooker. Follow the cornies at your own risk. They are pumping their own shaky investments. They have an undying believe that their own 'positive' attitude will somehow save the economy. All it comes down to is : screw the fundamentals.

Outcaste, take your positive attitude to church. Or the PTA. This place is for grownup

If they enforced grown-up behavior here, you'd be one of the first banned. But thanks for playing.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 20:40:02

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Right on Onlooker. Follow the cornies at your own risk. They are pumping their own shaky investments. They have an undying believe that their own 'positive' attitude will somehow save the economy. All it comes down to is : screw the fundamentals.

Outcaste, take your positive attitude to church. Or the PTA. This place is for grownup

If they enforced grown-up behavior here, you'd be one of the first banned. But thanks for playing.

The most you ever say to any reasonable contrary argument is . . . doomer doomer doomer doomer.

That is childish.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 28 Jul 2017, 23:44:13

pstarr wrote:The most you ever say to any reasonable contrary argument is . . . doomer doomer doomer doomer.


Hey, if you walk like a duck, talk like a duck, don't complain about being called a duck.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 00:28:02

Okay do not let us stop you all from investing. After all the stock market was made for the suckers and those who prey on them. But the savvy investor is seeing the future and can see business as usual modernity has no future hence the markets have none. The ultimate suckers rally
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 04:35:25

So those big returns for the last six months aren't real? Should I give them back?
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 06:35:51

Cog wrote:So those big returns for the last six months aren't real? Should I give them back?

Quit while you're ahead.
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 08:44:39

Quit the market and do what exactly? Buy silver? LOL

The market goes up the market goes down,
Blessed be our trades
Amen
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 31 Jul 2017, 15:15:28

The DOW passed 21900 today and might well break 22,000 this week. At the very least we need to change the title of the thread. 8)
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 07:31:35

Asian and European markets up and US premarket looks good. The rally continues regardless of North Korea and two major hurricanes hitting the USA. Its a good time to make some money.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 13:50:16

Cog wrote:Asian and European markets up and US premarket looks good. The rally continues regardless of North Korea and two major hurricanes hitting the USA. Its a good time to make some money.

This seems to be a relief rally over relief that Irma was MUCH milder than the general fears as far as major damage, and also NK tensions are ratcheting down (however briefly). It is basically reversing the big panicky down day last week.

The day to day isn't important as far as trends. The big question is whether the longer term global bullish trend can continue for years.

I just saw an article where some surprisingly calm and insightful analyst was pointing out how much growth we could see over the next 5 or 6 years, given how subdued net growth was due to the effects of the 2008-2009 super-recession. I was struck by how often (i.e. almost never) I see that perspective (sharing an opinion I've had for years.) When we see those sorts of opinions roughly comparing to the number of gloom and doom predictions would be a more telling sign of it being time to worry, IMO. At this point, we're not even remotely close.

Disclosure: I always keep a balanced portfolio, and lightened up this spring on US stocks. I'm mainly saying I just don't buy the need to panic, sell everything, or sit short the market, confidently waiting for "the big correction" or "the next crash" supposedly due any time, by the many negative market pundits.

(After all, if they were statistically any good at short term market predictions, they should be rich instead of paid pundits, decade after decade after decade).
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 08:20:50

Ive got quite a bit of money stored away. Very little if any is exposed to the markets right now. The US Government is playing Russian Roulette with healthcare costs and spending. They are running out of time and luck right now. Also, the markets have been driven by a global QE that cannot be sustained. If you honestly believe that these markets will continue to climb, then have at it. There are huge fundamental issues looming that do not portend good things happening with Western Economies or the markets. Try not to be a bag holder, its what the folks who shape and move the markets want.

I do believe the present markets while looking healthy are overvalued. That is not a huge deal. What IS, is the US Governments problem with funding itself without SERIOUS spending and program cuts moving forward. There are two roads we can follow..both of which lead us off the cliff at some point....one sooner and possibly less of a long term problem, and one later which will end up being quite catastrophic to global markets and the US economy.

The first situation is we do little or nothing to reign in the Fraud that is healthcare(and the Fed!) in this country. It inevitably breaks the back of the Federal budget in such a way that we will have serious economic and social dislocation due to it. GDP will crater and not just for a short time. This happens inside the next 7-10 years IMHO...could be faster, depending on the idiocy in Washington.

The second scenario involves the Government actually doing something which manages spending, reduces the cost of healthcare across the board(thru competitiveness and transparent pricing) and ACCEPTS the short term recession/depression that results from the shakeup in the monopolistic healthcare aspects of the economy.

Both of these will cause HUGE market downturns. One will be shorter than the other, one will be generational.

If you are smart, and keep your powder dry, you might be able to take advantage of this. Most folks will lose their shirts though since Im guessing the majority of us dont own HFT machines or have some math genius writing algorithms with which to play the markets. When this stuff goes sideways I will bet any of you a bottle of your favorite imbibement that you will not be able to execute trades fast enough..or at all! to take advantage of it! The whole things is kind of rigged against the retail/recreational investor.

Hence im choosing not to play at all with the nut Ive managed to accrue. To each his own though..good luck to us all!
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 08:34:44

Even in broad downturns there is volatility up/down cycles on the way down. That is where money is made.
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