2012 Brent Price Challenge

[vtsnowedin]

To fill in your chart I'll go for high 172.25 Low 111.12 and close 142.00 Good chance we have already seen the low for the year.

[SteinarN]

Here is my guesses:
Low: 108
High: 137
Close: 131

[Beery1]

Since I missed this one and we're still allowed to chip in, here's mine:

High: 141
Low: 102
Close: 120

[eXpat]

I forgot about this, since there´s still time to post here are my guesses

Low: 105
High: 140
Close: 120

[careinke]

It looks like most of us are betting that things will calm down and saner heads will prevail. I'm beginning to wonder if we are showing signs of boiled frog syndrome.

[Pops]

It looks like most of us are betting that things will calm down and saner heads will prevail. I'm beginning to wonder if we are showing signs of boiled frog syndrome.

Exactly. I was hoping for a little less wobble but maybe not.

If the close today were to be $125...
Hi...Low...close...overall diff
1..Cog.............$114.00.....$107.00.....$114.00.....13.08
2..Daniel_P.....$122.22 .....$99.99.....$111.11.....13.36
3..Pops........... $120.00.....$100.00.....$115.00 ...15.08

Cog's still ahead with his low & close.

[dolanbaker]

type, high, low, close
Brent 134, 101, 115

I'm beginning to wonder if I bid the high too low!

It's even worse in Euros, our petrol prices are skyrocketing.

[SeaGypsy]

Looks like a good spread of guesses. A serious run up at this time of year (usually somewhat of a lull) is a worrisome sign, obviously directly related to the ME situation. The rest of the year looks like being a wild race! For the first time I have noted MSM splashing stories about oil burden, Brent/ Tapis/ WTI spread and peak oil in the same article. Pops was onto this very early. It has now become the big thing in economic chatter. Things are changing fast in this regard; at least in Australia.
Is this being talked about in the MSM America?

[Pops]

Cogs still in the lead (alphabetically) with Dolan off our tie by only $0.08.

I should have sorted first on overall diff and next on high diff instead of name - LOL

Actually if you discount the closing price, which obviously changes daily, cog is ahead of me by $1(hi+lo diff column)

The yearly average is almost $115, $4 higher than last year.

I got you late-comers a little light, I'll fix 'er up next time

[Pops]

Dolan & Gypsy take over...






The average price since the beginning of the year...
$117.37/bbl
€89.11/bbl
!

And get this, the average price of Brent Crude for the last 365 days...
$114.00/bbl
€86.86/bbl


Don't forget that the US imports half it's oil and Brent is the gauge to use for floating oil - refiner acquisition costs for January in the US was $107/bbl +/- and the EIA has raised it's forecast to $115/bbl for the year.

Just for comparison, 2008 yearly real average was $95.57 and in 1980 (since the current prevarication is that year oil was really expensive)... in 1980 the real "stripper well*" price was $102.61 average for the year.

*Stripper well prices weren't regulated under the US price controls of the day so reflect better the actual value of oil in the day. Long boring article about price controls from CATO

[dolanbaker]

Price of Brent breaking records when Priced in Euros.
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/? ... rrency=eur

Code: Select all

Month   Price   Change
Feb 2007   44.18   -
Mar 2007   46.93   6.22 %
Apr 2007   49.87   6.26 %
May 2007   49.94   0.15 %
Jun 2007   53.15   6.42 %
Jul 2007   56.29   5.90 %
Aug 2007   51.98   -7.66 %
Sep 2007   55.51   6.81 %
Oct 2007   58.37   5.14 %
Nov 2007   63.02   7.97 %
Dec 2007   62.77   -0.40 %
Jan 2008   62.46   -0.50 %
Feb 2008   64.30   2.95 %
Mar 2008   66.53   3.47 %
Apr 2008   70.12   5.40 %
May 2008   79.67   13.62 %
Jun 2008   85.55   7.38 %
Jul 2008   84.91   -0.75 %
Aug 2008   76.06   -10.43 %
Sep 2008   68.95   -9.34 %
Oct 2008   54.75   -20.60 %
Nov 2008   41.82   -23.62 %
Dec 2008   30.99   -25.91 %
Jan 2009   33.90   9.41 %
Feb 2009   33.82   -0.23 %
Mar 2009   35.92   6.21 %
Apr 2009   38.56   7.33 %
May 2009   42.46   10.12 %
Jun 2009   48.94   15.26 %
Jul 2009   46.09   -5.83 %
Aug 2009   50.82   10.26 %
Sep 2009   46.49   -8.5 1 %
Oct 2009   49.40   6.26 %
Nov 2009   51.66   4.56 %
Dec 2009   51.11   -1.05 %
Jan 2010   53.52   4.70 %
Feb 2010   54.30   1.47 %
Mar 2010   58.43   7.59 %
Apr 2010   63.36   8.44 %
May 2010   60.65   -4.27 %
Jun 2010   61.31   1.08 %
Jul 2010   58.55   -4.51 %
Aug 2010   59.49   1.62 %
Sep 2010   59.52   0.05 %
Oct 2010   59.68   0.26 %
Nov 2010   62.39   4.55 %
Dec 2010   69.45   11.31 %
Jan 2011   72.09   3.81 %
Feb 2011   76.18   5.67 %
Mar 2011   81.76   7.33 %
Apr 2011   85.30   4.32 %
May 2011   79.78   -6.47 %
Jun 2011   79.07   -0.88 %
Jul 2011   81.73   3.36 %
Aug 2011   76.76   -6.08 %
Sep 2011   80.65   5.07 %
Oct 2011   79.87   -0.96 %
Nov 2011   81.38   1.89 %
Dec 2011   81.94   0.69 %
Jan 2012   85.96   4.90 %
Feb 2012   90.55   5.34 %


[dolanbaker]

Brent holding steady in a 120-125 mainly band at the moment

[Pops]

Average for the year is $118.34.

v... What Yergin said...
v
v

[dolanbaker]

Down under USD100 for the first time this year If the Euro wasn't falling as fast, I'd be happy.

[Cog]

The excitement over cheaper oil will be tempered by the lack of a job to pay for it at any price.

[Pops]

Demand is down and supply is up so commercial stocks are up. I need to chart the amount of oil in commercial stocks, I'd bet it correlated pretty close to price.

My guess that the economy will be LESS able to cope with higher prices is still up in the air, Brent at US$120/bbl looks like the ceiling for sure and maybe even $100, the next top will shed light. Hard for me to tease out how much is oil price affecting the world economy, the price was heading up the first qtr when some kind of recovery seemed to be taking hold.

The price has now broken through my last guess for the price floor, the steep light red line, so how close it comes to darker red "bottom" will be interesting.

But it went out of the "wedge" to the downside after it went out to the up... so? Supplies are up and demand down – kind of what we might expect from here?

[TheAntiDoomer]

#1 in Brent. #3 in WTI. Not bad, not bad at all.

[Pops]

Yer on it.

Hi+Lo you're almost as good as me – but we're both behind DP who is only off 6.84, excluding the close.

[dinopello]

I haven't played the price game, but I do enjoy reading the predictions.

Here's a "pro"'s prediction

He bases his outlook on pattern recognition and psychology. His work suggests crude will plunge to the December 2008 lows of $38 a barrel then pause prior to falling another 50%. All in, Kennedy is forecasting an additional 80% drop in crude to $16.70 a barrel; a level not seen since November 0f 2001.

As much as you hate really high oil prices now, you will hate really low prices even more.

[Pops]

Pattern recognition? What a crock.

Mmm I see a pattern forming...



The "pattern" is we've used the new technology of Record Price® and Burn Everything® to increase liquids and kill demand. How's that for psychology?


http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/201 ... more-10950