I typed this up for two other forums I post on, but some here may find it informative.
As I write, December 21, 2011, I feel that a world-changing event has begun around me. The Arctic meltdown is accelerating and subsea methane hydrate destabilization has begun in earnest. Worldwide there seems to be a tree and plankton die-off. Deserts are expanding pole ward. Equatorial countries are destabilizing. It’s certain now, that we’ve toppled into a period of runaway global warming.
It was in 2008 that Arctic scientists Igor Semilitov and Natalia Shakhova reported that methane hydrate escaping from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf was accelerating; they reported being very alarmed at the progress. In 2010 Shakhova and Semilitov told the US Department of Defense Environmetal Research Program that methane release had been underestimated by three magnitudes, citing Ira Leifer’s estimate of 3.5 Gt, and that according to David Archer this is enough to trigger abrupt climate change. Alvia Gaskill has said the resulting feedback mechanisms would trigger a mass extinction and mark a major transition point in Earth’s geological history. The National Science Foundation has been saying for a while now that even a small fraction of Siberian methane released would trigger abrupt climate change. It appears that this mechanism is now active. Two weeks ago at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union, Igor Semilitov said they found methane release on a “fantastic scale” including “continuous, powerful, and impressive seeping structures, more than 1000m in diameter”. He “was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes”. That’s scientist speak for “we’re screwed”. Also at the AGU was the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, sounding the alarm about the reality of runaway global warming and the need for immediate action.
The problem presented by the Arctic continental coast is that it’s a planetary carbon bomb – methane hydrate and gas capped under a layer of permafrost. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf alone holds twice as much carbon as our atmosphere. It was one of the earliest places to begin thawing since the sea ice began retreating in the 70s due to fossil fuel global warming. The shelf is only 50 metres deep and covers 2.4 million square kilometres. Now, too, the rivers in northern Russia have warmed and are dumping warm water into the cold Siberian Sea. As Semilitov said at the AGU, powerful seeping structures more than 1km wide have developed. Shakhova said up to 50 billion tonnes of methane could be abruptly released at any time. Such an event would presumably destroy industrial agriculture in under a decade. And it’s not just Siberia venting – it’s the entire Arctic continental coast that’s destabilizing. And no one with authority can say anything. Joe Romm too focuses on permafrost rather than hydrates. Martin Bergmann, director of Canada’s Arctic Continental Shelf Program, was also studying hydrates and directed over 1100 Arctic researchers from around the world. Unfortunately he was killed in a Resolute Bay charter plane crash last August. A military unit that happened to be there to do simulations of how to respond to airplane crashes, and perhaps also train for an opening Arctic, managed to assist the survivors in record time. The crash was not part of the training exercise, the Major said.
In spite of our present danger and repeated warnings from national science organizations, people still say we shouldn’t worry about methane. They cite David Archer, who says: “CO2 is plenty to be frightened of, while methane is the frosting on the cake. Imagine you are in a Toyota on the highway at 60 mph approaching stopped traffic, and you find that the brake pedal is broken. This is CO2. Then you figure out that the accelerator has also jammed, so that by the time you hit the truck in front of you, you will be going 90 mph instead of 60. This is methane. Is now the time to get worried? No, you should have already been worried by the broken brake pedal. Methane sells newspapers, but it’s not the big story, nor does it look to be the big game changer to the big story, which is CO2.” But if you interpret him correctly, he is in fact saying methane is extremely dangerous – a 90mph crash is far more lethal than a 60mph crash. And why is a modeller given preference over scientists in the field like Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semilitov, both of whom have practically lived in the Arctic for the past two decades and have clearly identified the mechanisms of abrupt hydrate release? Why is Peter Wadhams ignored – a civilian man that has been under the Arctic ice in military subs more than anyone else I know. What would Marty Bergmann have said? Why does the CIA hide their climate change research? Why has sea ice destabilized fifty years ahead of IPCC schedule? Why have methane hydrates destabilized a hundred years ahead of schedule? Why are the IPCC’s predictions so sloppy and their process so ineffective?
It was the same story with the ozone hole. Satellite data showed the ozone hole was real but modellers wouldn’t believe it since their models didn’t show any hole was possible. So they sent people out onto the Antarctic ice to check from the ground before accepting reality. Now the Arctic continental shelves are destabilizing in front of our eyes and we don’t want to believe it. It’s happening. And it’s being suppressed. We’re turning our planet into a toxic gas chamber. Into a furnace. We’re Nazis. All of us.
David Archer has said: “The worst-case scenario is that global warming triggers a decade-long release of hundreds of gigatonnes of methane, the equivalent of ten times the current amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. We’d be talking about mass extinction.” Observations of the Arctic sea ice and methane release over the past two decades and especially the last half indicate that we have now entered what Archer described. We’re now entering a mass extinction event. James Hansen has predicted 2012 will be the hottest year on record. The Arctic is nearly ice free and the continental shelves are destabilizing. How lucky do we feel? We can already see the tropics destabilizing from only moderate global warming. We can see the world food reserve dwindling. Why are we ignoring this threat? Is starvation and nuclear war a fair inheritance to the young?
I’d like to believe this was all some cruel joke, but NASA, NOAA, and the Russians don’t screw around. Steven Chu and John Holdren don’t screw around. Richard Branson, Bill Gates, Peter Ward, and James Hansen don’t screw around. The plankton and trees ARE dying. The poles ARE melting. The deserts ARE expanding. The methane hydrates ARE destabilizing. We’re lucky in northern America that as the Arctic melts down the country may remain cool for a few years, but that won’t last. Now the fossil fuel companies want to mine the hydrates. There’s more methane hydrates on the ocean floor than all other fossil fuels combined. Is it possible they wanted to warm the world in order to destabilize the hydrates to make mining easier? Is it possible they wanted to melt the Arctic to get at the worlds last oil reserves? They led us into a greenhouse mass extinction simply for profit? And we followed?
In a 2009 speech David Wasdell said NASA told him first hydrate release had been detected in 2006, but the Bush administration said not to tell anyone. Apparently they’ve tried to silence James Hansen too. He said to keep a keen eye on destabilizing methane. But his website doesn’t show methane levels like he said it would. In Canada suppression is happening as well. Around the world earth scientists are receiving death threats. Scientists are scared. I’m scared. And not just from global warming. When we were deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico methane hydrates caused a blow out that spilled oil and gas for months. Matt Simmons died after that. Now too there’s the risk that warm ocean currents could shift in the Pacific, warming unstable seafloor hydrates. It’ll be Storegga landslides all over again. Scenes resembling Japan. Rajendra Pachauri said we’ll get more earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic activity. So has the Royal Society. This makes sense because the seas are rising, the poles are geo-morphing, and the crust is expanding. Our planet, including solids, is in fact a fluid sphere spiralling through space. All fluids expand and become turbulent as they are warmed. Thawing of the Arctic continental shelves WILL result in catastrophic slope failure, and this WILL have consequences that transcend hydrate stability. We will have awoken a slumbering ice-age beast. One that will eliminate us through quake, tsunami, heatwave, hurricane, plague, gas, and privation. In 2007 Pachauri warned “Since the panel began its work five years ago, scientists have recorded much stronger trends in climate change. That means you better start with intervention much earlier...If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” Strong words from a ‘moderate’ man whom the fossil fuel industry picked to replace the ‘alarmist’ Robert Watson. Why does the fossil fuel industry have influence over the IPCC chair? Perhaps because fossil fuel IS government. Fossil fuel is our drug. And we knew the whole damn time. We wanted them to lie. Now we live the consequences.
Roland Emmerich was obviously listening to Pachuari in 2007. We know now that warming is proceeding so fast that there is no risk of an ice age through shutting down the ocean currents, but his movie 2012 presented a reality. The elites really are suppressing the truth about the coming catastrophe. They really are suppressing that methane hydrates are now rapidly destabilizing and that we’ve entered a mass extinction event. They even employ shills to trawl the internet – including forums and blogs - and post junk science. And they really are building ‘2012’ life-support bunkers for themselves. Are they planning to crash the economy and stop runaway warming with nuclear winter? Or is this simply their back-up in case geoengineering fails? The world will not collapse in a day as Emmerich depicts, but a decade of abrupt climate change will feel the same. Even now, only global dimming is keeping our planets temperature out of the red. Lovelock thinks air pollution is blocking 2-3 degrees C of warming. Hansen and Ramanathan say it’s significant too. What will happen when oil supply crashes and the pollution veil disappears? Will temperatures rise as abruptly as they did after the skies were cleared on 9/11? Will carbon feedbacks abruptly spike? Will we be abruptly burned off? Abruptly gassed?
Earth signals us. Many listen. Leonardo DiCaprio. Franny Armstrong. Yann Arthus-Bertrand. David Attenborough. Mike Cahill. Eckhart Tolle. Even the 0.1% listen. But we, the 99.9%, don’t listen. We don’t listen. We're too self absorbed. Too busy using. Now were locked in for triage no matter what. Kevin Anderson and Hans Schellnhuber predict a 4 degree warmer world will support under a billion. Lovelock suggests much lower and thinks this could be complete by 2025. Gaskill and Schellnhuber say resulting feedback mechanisms will eventually cause a rise of 15 degrees C. This is total surface extinction. Abrupt climate change will feel like a comet impacting earth. We’re going to discover a different planet. Another earth. One we won’t like anymore. One not worth living on.
In our present situation it’s only natural to hope geo-engineering will save us. It won’t. We need it, now. Absolutely. But it won’t save us. We need to save ourselves. We need to power down. Now. We need to take a 10 year break and just relax, focus on producing food, planting trees, and burying carbon. We need the military to stabilize the climate rather than fighting foreign wars. We need to find empathy, peace, and forgiveness. For ourselves. For the bunker people. Global warming has reached an inflection point. Human consciousness must too. We must accept our complicity in the earth and human condition. We must accept our complicity or face total extinction. We, the 99.9%. Our species must not suicide. I will not suicide. I will not go gentle into that good night. Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Igor Semilitov. International Arctic Research Centre. Pacific Oceanological Institute, Far Eastern Branch. Russian Academy of Sciences. Expert on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.
Natalia Shakhova. IARC. Pacific Institute of Geography, Far Eastern Brance. Russian Academy of Sciences
Ira Leifer, Department of Chemical Engineering, Marine Science Institute. Expert on methane hydrate seeps, including BPs deepwater blowout.
Martin Bergmann, former director of National Resource’s Canada Polar Continental Shelf Program.
David Archer, computational ocean chemist, University of Chicago.
Alvia Gaskill, president of Environmental Reference Materials Inc., DOE geo-eng consultant.
Peter Wadhams, professor of Ocean Physics, head of Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Departments of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge.
Peter Ward, professor of Biology and of Earth and Space Science, U of Washington. California Academy of Sciences.
Kevin Anderson, professor of Energy and Climate Change, former Acting Director of the Tyndall Centre.
Hans Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, chair of German Council on Climate Change.
James Lovelock, earth scientist, chemist, instrument designer, Fellow of the Royal Society. http://www.jameslovelock.org
David Wasdell, director, Apollo-Gaia Project, accredited IPCC reviewer. http://www.meridian.org.uk
James Hansen, head of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Grandfather. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1
Joeseph Romm, physicist, former Acting Assistant Secretary of the US DOE. http://www.climateprogress.org
Steven Chu, 12th United States Secretary of Energy, Nobel Prize in Physics.
John Holdren, advisor to Barrack Obama for Science and Technology.
MacArthur Genius award.
Rajendra Pachauri, chairperson of the International Panel on Climate Change, Nobel Peace Prize.
Robert Watson, former chair IPCC, former chief scientist at NASA and a thousand other places.
Matt Simmons, founder Simmons & Company International, former energy advisor to George Bush.
Veerabhadran Ramanathan, professer of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, University of California.
John Nissen, chair, Arctic Methane Emergency Group, visit http://www.arctic-methane-emergency-group.com
Malcolm Light, retired Arctic oil, mineral and climate researcher http://www.globalwarmingmlight.blogspot.com
Sam Carana, researcher, Arctic Methane Emergency Group, http://www.geo-engineering.blogspot.com
Cory Morningstar, investigative reporter, climate activist, http://www.theartofannihilation.com
Andrew Lockey, geoengineering researcher, host of http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?lnk=
Cid Yama, peak oil and climate investigator, http://www.cid-yama.livejournal.com
Tenney Naumer, comprehensive climate blogger, http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com
Jesse Ventura “2012 conspiracy” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOWWIDT910I
Stewart Brand, Mark Lynas, Gwynne Dyer, Jeff Goodel, Tim Flannery, George Monbiot, Clive Hamilton, Jared Diamond, David Orr, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Fred Pearce, James Gustave-Speth, David Spratt, Naomi Oreskes, James Hoggan, Bill McKibben, Naomi Klein, Noam Chomsky, Chris Hedges, Martin Rees, Brian Fagan, Michael Ruppert, Kenneth Deffeyes, Lester Brown, Dmitri Orlov, Dan Miller, and many more...
Here are some pictures I painted…I was going to use them as part of climate-activism…probably still am. I think that it is too late to save the world, but i’m going to start from the assumption that the area north of Denver airport may remain habitable provided we go carbon negative and invest in heavy geoengineering.
(summer minimum volume)
The original designers of the Denver murals had something similar in mind. The artist was told what to paint and given $100 000 for just one image, apparently. According to Jesse Ventura, the govt has been on a decade long bunker building fiesta. They haven’t been able to build enough. To get in, you have to be “very powerful” or “very wealthy”.
As the world burns, people in northern America will put down their weapons and produce food. And live in harmony with nature and each other. Or die of starvation and genocide. We don’t know yet.
Happy Happy Joy Joy. Peace and Harmony.
The reason I say I won’t commit suicide is that if i’m right…then I may end up dead. Run over, or a burst aorta…or maybe i’m just a conspiracy kook. I hope i'm a crazy conspiracy kook. Maybe Boeings geoengineering plan will pull off some magic and we will actually have “9 billion happy healthy humans”. That would be some real geoengineering magic…personally the only way I see us surviving is with nuclear power, synthetic food, local food, and heavy heavy heavy solar radiation management + carbon dioxide removal and burial.