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$200 Oil or Bust?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 13:57:37

pstarr wrote:Are you going to keep the inanity up forever. You believe that economics trumps thermodynamics as per your constant attacks on net-energy research. Yet you can't see that $147/barrel destroyed economies. Can't have it both ways. Sorry.

Speaking of inanity, the fact that you're still backing the ETP horse after the way Short profoundly has enbarrassed himself and shown he has no clue about oil production, measurement, math, etc. on this site in the past week says a lot.

You're impervious to new information. But keep yapping. I'm sure there are doomers who will listen.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 14:42:02

Speaking of inanity, the fact that you're still backing the ETP horse after the way Short profoundly has enbarrassed himself and shown he has no clue about oil production, measurement, math, etc. on this site in the past week says a lot.


What is a nice ignoramus like you doing in a place like this? Someone without the qualifications to judge a ten year old boys peeing contest is now a critic of applied thermodynamic theory. How quaint!

As soon as you learn how to run a spell checker, and other really, really complex applications - let us know? " enbarrassed" FUNNNNNY
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 14:44:02

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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 15:36:38

$200 oil will never happen. Peak oil predicted for 2020, and the equilibrium price at the new demand levels (70 million barrels per day) of about $25/bbl.

Outstanding explanation as to why.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 09:35:44

AdamB wrote:$200 oil will never happen.


I agree with you if anything like BAU holds. The run up to $147 a barrel showed that high prices could not be sustained over a long time frame (unless one believes that the crash was only due to sub-prime loans etc).

However, there could be a situation where oil supply is limited [at this stage with good supplies this has a low priority unless there is a major black swan event such as Hurricane Harvey taking out much of Houstan] and the rich bid the price up. I would not like to be living in that situation as it would mean most are prices out of the market and it definitely would not be an approximation of BAU as we know it now.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 09:39:43

EdwinSm wrote:(unless one believes that the crash was only due to sub-prime loans etc).


*raises hand*

EdwinSm wrote:However, there could be a situation where oil supply is limited [at this stage with good supplies this has a low priority...


Nice to know you have at least one foot planted in reality.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 14:12:48

EdwinSm wrote:
AdamB wrote:$200 oil will never happen.


I agree with you if anything like BAU holds. The run up to $147 a barrel showed that high prices could not be sustained over a long time frame (unless one believes that the crash was only due to sub-prime loans etc).

If you take an objective look at the opinions of a group of major ecomomic sources such as "The Economist" -- mainstream economists certainly seem to believe, for the most part, that the primary issue causing the 2008-2009 economic crash was indeed the economic fallout from the real estate crash.

Some sources list the high oil prices as a likely secondary contributing cause.

I actually talked to people affected, like peers at my lower middle class apartment complex. (Since I had investments in energy and natural resources, I was trying to get another take on how real world US lower middle class people were impacted). In the real world, people were starting to do things like park big SUV's and buy fuel efficient cars for commutes to other cities once gas passed $4, but generally people were just complaining. Complaining isn't a good indicator of lots of TRUE economic stress.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 16:37:22

Outcast - "Some sources list the high oil prices as a likely secondary contributing cause." Especially if one looks at the relatively short time span of very high oil prices... say over $100/bbl. Certainly more of an emotional impact then a material one. OTOH the impact of the mortgage system collapse lasted years. In fact oil prices recovered to fairly high levels as the financial crisis abated.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 22:19:43

AdamB wrote:$200 oil will never happen. Peak oil predicted for 2020, and the equilibrium price at the new demand levels (70 million barrels per day) of about $25/bbl.

Outstanding explanation as to why.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0


I haven't listened to all of this yet, it is exactly what I have been talking about in the EV thread.

This is actually the INVERSE of doomer house-of-cards theory. Doomers spend most of their time worrying about sudden collapse and how nobody (except they) anticipate them. Disruption is about huge opportunities for progress, and while yes, the proverbial buggy-whip manufacturers won't like it, it's ultimately a big net gain.

In the lifecycle of this forum we've seen one disruptive tech already come of age: LED lighting. It's not quite over yet, but we're in the tail-end of incandescents being completely phased out and CFLs being next on the chopping block as we skip forward to LEDs. Incandescents seemed like they'd be around forever. 100+ years, right? Sound similar? Similar to the internal combustion engine perhaps? Well, if you build a better mousetrap, people will probably eventually abandon the old for the new.

The examples given really drive it home. We've lived through these. And Kodak going from record profits to bankruptcy in a dozen odd years is really instructive. It's actually COMMON for the incumbent technology to have its best years immediately before tanking. It will seem as though all is well because this tech is so damn commoditized. Then everyone switches over almost overnight to the revolutionary replacement. Happened with digital cameras and happened with smartphones/tablets.

I just don't think it's possible for the hardcore doomers to ever come around. Even if they watch the presentation they are so stuck in their narrative of people's love-affair with gas-burning cars that they just can't imagine their buying habits could change so rapidly, even given these examples. We'll just have to wait and see.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 23:00:39

One can argue that tax revenues are ultimately poured back into the system, which means increased consumption not just of oil but of other resources will continue. Similar arguments can be made concerning carbon credits.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 23:19:29

ralfy wrote:One can argue that tax revenues are ultimately poured back into the system, which means increased consumption not just of oil but of other resources will continue. Similar arguments can be made concerning carbon credits.


Watch the video referenced, and refute it, or any part of it. I DARE you. You ideas are nothing compared to a real expert, laying out a very well thought out idea, that is proving truth as I write this.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby marmico » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 04:28:50

refute it


Sure Tony. US wind/solar primary energy consumption in 2010 [2016] = 1.013 [ 2.70] quads. Wind/solar as a percent of total primary energy consumption in 2010 {2016] = 1.04% [2.77%].

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... sec1_7.pdf

2016 solar consumption is a speck and it will not be the dominate energy provider by 2030.

Image
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 11:39:15

marmico wrote:2016 solar consumption is a speck and it will not be the dominate energy provider by 2030.


If we go through the S-curve then things will change fast. The bottom of the S is what feeds the psychological idea that nothing is happening until it accelerates. I'm not saying I'm as 100% convinced as Tony Seba, just that there is a strong historical precedence for these things and he made a convincing cost comparison argument, assuming his data is accurate (which it may not be since he has a vested interest).

What does that mean for us mere mortals?

If you start to see "smart money" shifting over, then it's a sign. Sure, there are those who want to prop up BAU but in the end, money talks and shit walks. In the presentation Seba was talking about how many corporations are investing in solar. You can shrug it off as greenwashing PR or it could very well be that their accountants crunched the numbers and determined it made sense from a cost perspective to do this.

Really, economics is the determining factors. Nobody knowingly wastes their money. That's the key, KNOWINGLY. The cost has to come down and then people have to realize this before the tipping point is reached. Then it becomes sort of a stampede towards the exits of the old way of doing things and over to the new.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby marmico » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 12:00:38

Seba contends that the disruptive adoption of solar energy is like adoption of microwave ovens. He is woefully misinformed about the arc of energy history.

Image

Wake me up when solar consumption surpasses hydro consumption in the US. And then we can talk coal.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 26 Aug 2017, 12:47:29

Seba contends that the disruptive adoption of solar energy is like adoption of microwave ovens. He is woefully misinformed about the arc of energy history.

...

Wake me up when solar consumption surpasses hydro consumption in the US. And then we can talk coal.



Did watch the video? He's talking about a LOT more than solar, as far as the S-curve of EV adoption. He's an expert on the subject of transformational change, and has clearly thought the subject through. Clearly there are several crucial technologies which will be complimentary to help bring this about. Solar is just one piece.

It looks to me like you're ignoring the cost case -- that seems rather compelling for the energy piece, anyway.

I think the weakness in his case is the assumption that (per Musk marketing) that practical, cheap, reliable, fully autonomous EV taxis will rapidly become prolific, starting in 2021, when such vehicles hit the streets. I think he's making lots of untested assumptions about how quickly that happens, and how fast the government and legal and insurance apparatus fully accepts that. So I think the vehicle shift will happen, but could well be delayed relative to his estimates.

But the case for the economic adoption of solar and storage looks pretty solid, if the cost curves are even close to working. Now, I'll wait and see, but if solar and batteries get much cheaper by 2025 and are common and easy to get installed, and it's obvious that they work well and are reliable -- then I'll certainly be on board ASAP.

(Unlike today when a Tesla Solar roof and a couple Tesla Powerwall batteries will cost over $40K for my modest home, and have a pay-off period of MANY decades, given my average power bill is in the $50 ballpark.)
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 10:58:22

I think the temptation is to either skim the video or just post a rebuttal but really you need to watch it all the way through.

A big part of Seba's argument is psychological. There is a deep-seated mental blind-spot about disruptive technology, which is made all the more frustrating by how repetitive it is. It is, as I said, the inverse of irrational exuberance. Irrational exuberance is about not seeing bubbles before they burst. You could maybe call this sort of thing...irrational complacency. It's also heavily related to tipping-point theory. Things can reach tipping points both in a positive and negative direction and we're not that good at spotting these trends.

For instance, this story just scrolled by this morning.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy ... s-smashed/

Note how China has been the poster-child of pollution, stories about them opening strings of coal-fired plants, but things appear to be changing. When will this have a significant impact on their overall energy mix? Well, if it isn't already, it will be. Moral of the story is that things change, usually right under our noses without us even realizing it. That's why nostalgia happens. The gradual nature of change reaches a point where you finally sort of tally up the cumulative change and realize that the world is now a different place.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 14:54:10

EdwinSm wrote:
AdamB wrote:$200 oil will never happen.


I agree with you if anything like BAU holds. The run up to $147 a barrel showed that high prices could not be sustained over a long time frame (unless one believes that the crash was only due to sub-prime loans etc).


And worse yet for companies in the long run, the supply response to price was horrifying for them...and peak oilers, but WONDERFUL for the consumer. They would LOVE to see the 1986 debacle play out all over again through 2030, no doubt about it. And if the Survey keeps cranking out assessments showing the US has just the kind of shale oil resources that Rystad has already announced...well....maybe I can talk my kids into jousting with PO zealots still around claiming that all we need to do is wait some more...peak oil....another one...will get here....some day...maybe.....

EdwinSm wrote:However, there could be a situation where oil supply is limited [at this stage with good supplies this has a low priority unless there is a major black swan event such as Hurricane Harvey taking out much of Houstan] and the rich bid the price up. I would not like to be living in that situation as it would mean most are prices out of the market and it definitely would not be an approximation of BAU as we know it now.


Depends on how well set up you are for not using crude based products as a transportation fuel. I'm considering a second EV for the family, based on how well the wife's EV has worked out.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 14:56:19

asg70 wrote:I think the temptation is to either skim the video or just post a rebuttal but really you need to watch it all the way through.


Indeed. I almost never reference videos, but when you find a real expert, with a well built idea, that not even zealots like peak oilers would miss but normal folk...well...it is worth the watching.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 14:59:55

marmico wrote:Seba contends that the disruptive adoption of solar energy is like adoption of microwave ovens. He is woefully misinformed about the arc of energy history.


He was very well informed. And microwaves were worthy of what, 5 seconds of his presentation? I recommend watching the entire thing. It isn't about solar taking over the world and producing more energy than everything else tomorrow, is it about the disruptive power of new technologies combining in ways that weren't possible until another idea came along to be mated to it, and together they blew up the current paradigm.

It is worth the hour.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 31 Aug 2017, 18:13:44

AdamB wrote:
marmico wrote:Seba contends that the disruptive adoption of solar energy is like adoption of microwave ovens. He is woefully misinformed about the arc of energy history.


He was very well informed. And microwaves were worthy of what, 5 seconds of his presentation? I recommend watching the entire thing. It isn't about solar taking over the world and producing more energy than everything else tomorrow, is it about the disruptive power of new technologies combining in ways that weren't possible until another idea came along to be mated to it, and together they blew up the current paradigm.

It is worth the hour.

I would say WELL worth it, whether you agree with him or not.

One of the main reasons I first came to this site was as an investor looking to learn more about oil in particular, and energy in general -- to help me make better investment decisions over time.

I would put this video in the same category. Even if you think it's all nonsense as far as the rapid timeframe, there's a lot of great info in there.

Nvidia and teraflops, and the road to super-computer in a car status, helping to enable the autonomous car, for example. This is something I hadn't even thought about.

He makes passing references to MANY trends and ideas, which could be investigated from an investment standpoint, IMO. (I'm way too dumb to figure everything out. I'm more than happy to get good ideas and pointers from specialists who have spent a lifetime thinking hard about certain types of problems).
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