AdamB wrote:I happen to be the inventor of, and chief advocate of, the new sine wave of oil production prototyped by the US over the past decade or so. Yo-yoing indeed, methinks the bell shaped curve needs MAJOR revision, in lieu of what Rockman and his fellow industry folks have demonstrated for the world to see.
The problem with your model is that it applies to the US and it added some 5 mb/d to global supply, as a result of unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into commodities. Enough to offset the declining production of conventional fields for a few years. There has been a learning curve as to the application of existing technology, i.e. longer laterals and more fracking stages, which allow draining these fields faster and make more of them profitable.
It does not address the other 90 mb/d of global production, nor the additional production required to reach 100, 110 or 120 mb/d. According to the EIA, there are an estimated 418 billion technically recoverable barrels in shales worldwide. 75 billion in the US, others worth mentioning in Russia (75) and China (32). The Vaca Muerte sees some limited production, a lot of which is gas. And companies are not exactly falling over each other to invest in Libya and Chad. Where is your prototype being replicated on any meaningful scale?
The global shale revolution didn't happen when oil traded for $100. That price triggered only the US shales. On a larger scale it might happen when oil trades for $100+ again - and when the US sweet spots have all been drilled. Otherwise the costs and risks appear to outweigh the benefits.