Pops wrote:Hmm, still, there are substitutes even if they aren't perfect replacements - like it says in my sig... What do you suggest?
All POer understand that oil is running out and that it will be world changing.
I learned a few years back on this site, however, that there are two types of POers.
The first type understand that, given human propensity for war and aggression and resource monopolization, carnage must result from PO.
The second type see the PO problem, but like the cornucopians who don't want to understand PO, they suffer from a tremendous normalcy bias. These POers go on and on about substitutes, alternatives, electric cars, high speed rail, battery technology, and so on. They use words like "soft landing" and discuss how people, gee whiz, will come together when, finally, after all of our waiting, Peak Oil is understood by the masses. They will come together and "work on solutions" and so on.
In short, this second type suffers from the exact same normalcy bias that restricts the thought process of the non-PO crowd. They have, essentially, taken one further step toward understanding where we're going, but they refuse to take any further steps. Ironically, they do so for the same reasons the non-PO crowd does - a fear of shedding the normalcy bias.
So, Pops. To answer your question. I don't suggest anything, because there's nothing that can be done.
Substitutes will not "come on line" after "investment" and "years of development."
It's a f----ing cornucopian, normalcy bias-induced pipe dream.
What's going to happen is that there is going to a brutal, worldwide riot to fight for the remaining oil. It will last a very long time. It will kill many people. It will upset any balances that have been established in the world. It will result in the end of the modest liberty we now have. It will sic brother upon brother. It will be merciless..
We are, in fact, in the very early stages of the scrum.
Think on it, delusional POers. Gasoline is still reasonably priced in the Western world. Most people still have a reasonable living. Most people are still well fed. Most people still believe that things can get better, and that the economy is in a temporary downturn.
In short, mob mentality is still in the nascent formation stages, and we have not yet arrived at the time when self-interest overtakes any urge toward humanity we may have.
Times are still, in fact, better than they were at any time before about 30 years ago.
And what are we seeing? Riots and revolutions across N. Africa and the Middle East. Ongoing protests and dissension in Europe.
We're on the cusp. This is with oil at 100 a barrel.
Any discussion of "alternatives" and "substitutes" is misguided, because it takes the focus off of where it needs to be - which is on the fact that the world is a powderkeg that has a lit fuse. The focus needs to be on preventing a complete breakdown in social order.